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Old June 7th, 2006, 01:58 AM   #101
hkskyline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monkey
Sure nobody's forcing Western firms to do business in China but then nobody's forcing them to stay there and continue investing either. They can choose not to stay. They can decide that the risks are too great. If the Chinese won't abide by WTO rules, and if the Chinese joint venture partners so flagrantly breach the interests of their Western partners, then pretty soon they won't have any Western partners left - and the flow of investment will dry up. Western firms will put their vast capital, which has done so much to develop China in recent years, into other emerging markets instead (esp Eastern Europe, SE Asia, and India). If I was the chairman of a German manufacturing company I wouldn't go near China with a bargepole given that so many other German firms have come unstuck there.
Actually, the West doesn't have a good record abiding by the WTO and the free trade spirit either. When Western jobs were at risk, the Europeans put in textile quotas on Chinese exports, while they advocate that China open its doors to Western investment. The Americans still subsidize their farmers. It's quite hypocritical that the West expects open markets so their businesses can profit while closing their doors to the poorer countries that are trying to sell their wares. But then, these things happen because one side has the power and is willing to exploit their power for the best outcome for themselves.

The fact is, a lot of Western companies have decided to stay in China. They realize the long-term benefits are enormous, and they also have to realize that they can't profit without giving a little back. Technology transfer is inevitable. One thing Western companies can do is to safeguard their trade secrets a little better. In that case, even the most skilled Chinese spies can't get through.

Corporate espionage isn't something new and problematic because there is more trade with China nowadays. It's a consistent problem within Western countries as well. In 2004 Air Canada accused WestJet Airlines of stealing confidential flight data and sued for $200 million. WestJet countersued, claiming that Air Canada had dug through the home garbage of WestJet employees in search of incriminating evidence. A settlement was made last week.

When Boeing got caught with secret documents from Lockheed a few years back, it had to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties and was barred from a billion dollars' worth of defense business. After Volkswagen illegally obtained boxes full of secret General Motors plans in 1993, it got hit with a $100 million settlement.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 02:01 AM   #102
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I agree with the above, it's still in its infancy, I would like to see someone planning for it more in the US again. If it could be reliable and expandable, etc. $1.85 bln for 38 km is not that bad at all. I could easily see this implemented on the east coast. But the infrastructure costs would really jack up this price I suspect.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 02:26 AM   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YelloPerilo
It will take at least another ten years till Vietnam and India will catch up with China's current level of infrastructure. And China's labour is more expensive than India or Vietnam
That's why I said this earlier:

"They have chosen China not primarily because of its domestic market (though that becomes increasingly attractive as China's middle calss expands) but more because China offers a combination of very low costs and good physical infrastructure (eg roads, ports, etc). However if China's advantages are too much offset by massive intellectual property theft and untrustworthy joint-venture partners then they will locate elswehere. Even if they want to sell goods to the China market they can locate just over the border in, say, Vietnam (Vietnam has just concluded a trade agreement with the US paving the way for WTO entry). They could also base in India which has potentially even lower costs than China and is gradually improving infrastructure to an adequate level. If better infrastructure is essential they could choose a slightly more expensive but more developed base such as Malaysia. For selling to western markets they can choose Eastern Europe (Ukraine for example). It's not as if China is the only place you can build a car factory!!"
Quote:
Originally Posted by YelloPerilo
... and "Western" companies are still pouring money into China. All the "western" CEOs must be either blind or stupid.
Many have indeed been stupid. I think there is growing recognition of that. I think they will be much more cautious about investing in China in joint ventures requiring technology transfer in the futue. That's precisely why I think their future investment patterns will favour alternative markets as I mentioned..... unless of course China makes a serious effort at stamping out intellectual property theft.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 02:31 AM   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YelloPerilo
Most so called "foreign investments" are actually Chinese money reinvested into China through offshore tax havens, either by Oversea Chinese (Huaqiao) or Chinese companies. It is well known that most Chinese companies are dodging tax in China. The "West" plays a less significant role that you may think.
Why are you trying to play down the West's role in investing in China? It's obvious that Western firms are everywhere in China. I seriously doubt that the investment coming through tax havens in the Caribbean (Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands for example) is coming from China. I have friends that lived and worked there as corporate tax lawyers and they said almost all of their business is from British and American firms.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 01:38 PM   #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monkey
"They have chosen China not primarily because of its domestic market (though that becomes increasingly attractive as China's middle calss expands) but more because China offers a combination of very low costs and good physical infrastructure (eg roads, ports, etc). However if China's advantages are too much offset by massive intellectual property theft and untrustworthy joint-venture partners then they will locate elswehere. Even if they want to sell goods to the China market they can locate just over the border in, say, Vietnam (Vietnam has just concluded a trade agreement with the US paving the way for WTO entry). They could also base in India which has potentially even lower costs than China and is gradually improving infrastructure to an adequate level. If better infrastructure is essential they could choose a slightly more expensive but more developed base such as Malaysia. For selling to western markets they can choose Eastern Europe (Ukraine for example). It's not as if China is the only place you can build a car factory!!"
But in ten years time, China will have a massive middle class = tons of consumers who are in many ways different then Europeans. and China's infrastructure will be massive as well.

BTW Vietnam as well as India have their fair share of IP problems as well.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 01:42 PM   #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monkey
Why are you trying to play down the West's role in investing in China? It's obvious that Western firms are everywhere in China. I seriously doubt that the investment coming through tax havens in the Caribbean (Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands for example) is coming from China. I have friends that lived and worked there as corporate tax lawyers and they said almost all of their business is from British and American firms.
I am not playing down anything, that's the truth, don't think too high of your "Western" influence. It does play a role in China's modernisation, but not the most important ... at most a second tier role. Your underlying "Western" supremacy is laughtable.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 05:41 PM   #107
AcesHigh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AcesHigh
check these videos

inside Shanghai Maglev (max speed 400 km/h)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-aBF...&search=maglev

german maglev flyby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5oRr...&search=maglev

japanese maglev (inside and also flyby video)... reaches 500 km/h, constant fast aceleration on internal spedometer... very cool and long video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDmH7...&search=maglev
has anyone watched my videos?
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Old June 7th, 2006, 06:10 PM   #108
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yes
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Old June 7th, 2006, 07:40 PM   #109
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I watched your videos, Aceshigh.
For India and Vietnam to catch China in terms of infrustracture, not in 20 years. Unless they can build faster than China does which I very much doubt about.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 08:23 PM   #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YelloPerilo
But in ten years time, China will have a massive middle class = tons of consumers who are in many ways different then Europeans. and China's infrastructure will be massive as well.
Which I have also already mentioed. Do I have to quote myself again?

....and as I said before Western manufacturers don't need to be based in China to sell products to the Chinese middle class. They can manufacture cars in a nearby SE Asian country with similar cost benefits and then sell them over the border.
Quote:
Originally Posted by YelloPerilo
BTW Vietnam as well as India have their fair share of IP problems as well.
I have never heard of anything from either country as serious as the Chinese engineers breaking into the Transrapid depot at night to steal technical data!! Nor indeed any of the other examples listed in the Der Speigel article.
Quote:
Originally Posted by YelooPerilo
I am not playing down anything, that's the truth, don't think too high of your "Western" influence. It does play a role in China's modernisation, but not the most important ... at most a second tier role. Your underlying "Western" supremacy is laughtable.
It's not the truth. I bet almost all the investment coming from the Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands is western - not Chinese. I bet a huge portion that comes through Hong Kong is also western. And I have been to China several times and been all over the country. The precense of Western firms is evident everywhere. And before you accuse me of "Western supremacy" I think you need to check that rather large chip on your shoulder.....

And anyone who seriously argues that widespread and well publicised intellectual property theft from Western firms is not going to make them think twice about investing in China and starting joint ventures with Chinese partners needs their heading checking out. It's obvious that it will deter them! They are there to make a profit and if they end up getting consistently ripped off instead then of course they will be careful not to make the same mistake twice.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 09:23 PM   #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monkey
I bet a huge portion that comes through Hong Kong is also western. .
Nonsense, period.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 10:22 PM   #112
LordChaos80
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...

One of the less nice aspects (beside many, many nice ones) of Chinese people I have learned in my one year staying in China so far is that there are many among them who obviously lack the ability of discussing certain things objectively and logically. As soon as their country is concerned in the slightest way of criticism, their view gets way too biased and they can only retreat on childish arguments like this "western supremacy" stuff or refer to their own countries' greatness. Perhaps, one can hardly blame them for that, because they grow up with this patriotic rubbish starting in the kindergarten. Even my girlfriend and future wife ( also Chinese ) is like that. A reasonable discussion about the Taiwan matter with her is simply impossible, although she is an intelligent and educated person. The same here about that tech theft stuff: Why can, for example u, Yello Perilo or even my high appreciated fellow-forumer HKskyline, not admit that there are certain things happening in China which are just NOT OK in this way? With joining the WTO, China has also accepted to follow and execute its' laws and rules. And there is some point about them, which cannot only be in securing western interests, as Taiwan, Japan or Singapore are also keeping them in high regards. But I am starting to discuss again although I know it's a waste of time as long as the smell of national pride is in the air... So, I better take my leave again (what I would also recommend to Monkey and others...)

@Chinese fellows: 我不是怪你们个人的,也不是讨厌中国的那种老外。我说的就是中国社会之内的一个你们可能不能发现到的问题。。。 除了这个以外,我真的非常喜欢中国,很看得起它的文化和历史。 只是有时候你门对国家的爱情变你们成盲人 ( 我说的当然不是每个中国人,可很可惜挺多的. )

Last edited by LordChaos80; June 7th, 2006 at 10:29 PM.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 10:47 PM   #113
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^ I agree with every word of that. I have a Taiwanese girlfriend. One of her friends is from Beijing. She's a very nice girl and very intelligent. However her Taiwanese friends are careful to avoid mentioning politics around her as she immediately retreats into this rather unpleasant and aggressive nationalism. She cannot discuss it with any balance whatsoever. I think there is a collective chip-on-the-shoulder that can make them hyper-sensitive to criticism - very prickly! On the other hand I have another friend in Hangzhou, another bright girl, who can talk about things sensibly. However even she has a background education that might better be described as "brainwash". However she's smart enough to open her mind and listen to other points of view without instinctively lashing out insults and thinly veiled threats. Perhaps it's because her grandfather, who was Kuomintang, was tortured by the Communists?
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Old June 7th, 2006, 10:49 PM   #114
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YelloPerilo是德国出生,德国长大。hkskyline是香港人,他们都没受过共产党的爱国主义教育。
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Old June 7th, 2006, 10:53 PM   #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordChaos80
One of the less nice aspects (beside many, many nice ones) of Chinese people I have learned in my one year staying in China so far is that there are many among them who obviously lack the ability of discussing certain things objectively and logically. As soon as their country is concerned in the slightest way of criticism, their view gets way too biased and they can only retreat on childish arguments like this "western supremacy" stuff or refer to their own countries' greatness. Perhaps, one can hardly blame them for that, because they grow up with this patriotic rubbish starting in the kindergarten. Even my girlfriend and future wife ( also Chinese ) is like that. A reasonable discussion about the Taiwan matter with her is simply impossible, although she is an intelligent and educated person. The same here about that tech theft stuff: Why can, for example u, Yello Perilo or even my high appreciated fellow-forumer HKskyline, not admit that there are certain things happening in China which are just NOT OK in this way? With joining the WTO, China has also accepted to follow and execute its' laws and rules. And there is some point about them, which cannot only be in securing western interests, as Taiwan, Japan or Singapore are also keeping them in high regards. But I am starting to discuss again although I know it's a waste of time as long as the smell of national pride is in the air... So, I better take my leave again (what I would also recommend to Monkey and others...)

@Chinese fellows: 我不是怪你们个人的,也不是讨厌中国的那种老外。我说的就是中国社会之内的一个你们可能不能发现到的问题。。。 除了这个以外,我真的非常喜欢中国,很看得起它的文化和历史。 只是有时候你门对国家的爱情变你们成盲人 ( 我说的当然不是每个中国人,可很可惜挺多的. )
PERFECTLY SAID!!!!!!!

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Old June 7th, 2006, 10:57 PM   #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sen
YelloPerilo是德国出生,德国长大。hkskyline是香港人,他们都没受过共产党的爱国主义教育。
I don't think HKskyline is typical of what I and LordChaos are talking about. However I have noticed this prickly nationalism from YelloPerilo several times before. There are several other responses that look like reactionary aggression too. Why does wigo dismiss my assertion that much Western investment in China arrives via Hong Kong as "nonsense"? It certainly is not nonsense. Hong Kong offers Western firms more secure laws and rights of contract than the mainland. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of Western investment into China passes through Hong Kong as an intermediary. But the response from wigo? It's the gut reaction again....
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Old June 7th, 2006, 10:58 PM   #117
LordChaos80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sen
YelloPerilo是德国出生,德国长大。hkskyline是香港人,他们都没受过共产党的爱国主义教育。
那我更不能理解他们的看法。。。
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Old June 7th, 2006, 11:09 PM   #118
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共产党的教育的确不怎么地,可是收效有多少?语文课本里说共产主义怎么怎么好,资本主义怎么怎么黑暗,谁不知道还是资本主义好?很多中国人反日并不是因为共产党“教唆“,而的确是出于对日本右翼种种伤害中国人民举动的自然反映。美国炸中国使馆胜过十年的反美教育,对许多西方国家的不满也是这么逼出来的。

SSC就是这么一个世界的微缩,当然并不是指你,你还是比较客观的,可以静下心来讨论,可看看“堂吉科德“(你楼上的楼上)整天都发什么帖子你也就不难理解这里许多中国人的行为了。
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Old June 7th, 2006, 11:18 PM   #119
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@ Sen: It is rather rude for you to be writing Chinese here knowing perfectly well that you know English.

That is what PM is for.
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Old June 7th, 2006, 11:22 PM   #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordChaos80
那我更不能理解他们的看法。。。
The German philosipher Hegel has said something like "everything existed must have good reasons"

BTW, could you please tell me his original words so that I can quote in the future. Dank

Last edited by wigo; June 7th, 2006 at 11:27 PM.
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