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Old February 19th, 2009, 10:56 PM   #1
HARTride 2012
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AP Analysis: Fewer outsiders are moving to Florida

AP Analysis: Fewer outsiders are moving to Florida
Thursday, February 19, 2009

By MIKE SCHNEIDER
ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) -- Is the love affair outsiders have with Florida losing its zest?

A drop in driver's license applications from out-of-state residents certainly suggests they've cooled to the Sunshine State's charms. The number of applications from outsiders has tumbled 30 percent during the past five years _ dropping from more than 585,000 in 2003 to about 410,000 in 2008, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.

New Yorkers have snubbed Florida in the largest numbers, with 34,000 fewer applicants coming from what has long been Florida's No. 1 feeder state. That's a decline of almost 50 percent. The next biggest drop came from New Jersey, with 11,000 fewer applicants.

Theories abound on why people are finding Florida less attractive. The recession. The awful housing market. Hurricanes. High insurance costs. Battered retirement funds. And, perhaps, the end of the "9-11 effect," which demographer Jan Vink said caused more people to move out of New York to Florida after the terrorism attacks in 2001. That migration spike peaked in 2005, but Vink isn't sure what has caused it to taper off.

"Were houses getting too expensive?" said Vink, who works for Cornell University's Program on Applied Demographics in New York. "Did people start to feel nervous about the downturn in the economy?"

Florida appears to be suffering more than other states that have lured large numbers of newcomers in recent years.

United Van Lines, which issues an annual summary of where people are moving based on its shipments, said other warm-weather states such as Alabama, Arizona, Nevada, the Carolinas and Texas continued to see significantly more people moving in than leaving last year.

But Florida was losing its pull, with roughly equal numbers of shipments entering and leaving the state last year. As recently as 2003, the moving company reported it hauled three shipments into Florida for every two that left.

Population increases have traditionally been the economic engine in this state of almost 19 million residents. Enticed by subtropical weather and relatively inexpensive housing, new Florida residents bought homes, added to the tax base and created demand for new shopping malls, schools and other development.

While annual population growth for the past decade ran between 2 percent and 2.5 percent, it dropped to 0.7 percent in 2008. Florida now has its highest unemployment rate in 16 years _ 8.1 percent in December _ and one of the nation's highest home foreclosure rates. With thousands leaving the state almost as fast as others arrived, Florida's population increased by only about 127,000 last year.

Florida newcomer Adele Coble has seen "some pretty ugly stuff" since she moved to Miami Beach from St. Louis. New people she meets have been laid off, and some friends have been forced to move out of their apartments because their landlords' properties went into foreclosure.

"It's a little unnerving," said Coble, 26, who moved last year after her boyfriend took a job in Miami. She has been doing contract work for a nonprofit while she continues her search for a full-time job. She still enjoys calling her family up north and letting them know that she's wearing shorts and flip-flops while they suffer through the dead of winter.

For Mike DeBartolo, moving to Florida was vital for his cargo shipping company, no matter what the statistics say. He moved last June from North Carolina to Broward County, home of Fort Lauderdale.

"I really needed to be here in order to operate," said DeBartolo, 36, whose business is concentrated in Port Everglades outside Fort Lauderdale and at the Port of Miami. "This is definitely the place to be since most of our customers are in Latin America."

For those still moving to Florida, the AP analysis found that Miami-Dade and Broward counties in South Florida remain the No. 1 and No. 2 destinations for new applicants for Florida driver's licenses, as they were five years ago.

Orange County, home of Orlando, replaced Palm Beach County as the No. 3 destination for out-of-staters.

For New Yorkers still set on Florida, Palm Beach and Broward remained the top destinations. Among all newcomers, Liberty County in the Panhandle was the least popular.

Demographers aren't sure whether the drop in new Florida transplants, particularly New Yorkers, is temporary or long-term.

"Once the economy improves, will there be a flood out of New York?" said Warren Brown, a demographer at the University of Georgia, who until this year directed Cornell University's Program on Applied Demographics in New York.

"That's one possibility. The other is that the glow of going to Florida has been diminished by property insurance and other costs."


Copyright 2009 Associated Press. All right reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2...ing+to+Florida
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Old February 19th, 2009, 11:35 PM   #2
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look no further than the recession... other than that, I know the cold can get to you after a while, but so can constant heat.
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Old February 20th, 2009, 06:44 PM   #3
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I honestly blame above all the rest the foreclosure rates. People are scared to death of buying houses in Florida, and many of Florida's big cities are at the top of the list.
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Old February 20th, 2009, 07:09 PM   #4
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I bet by 2012, people are going to start leaving FL in droves....no one can afford living here anymore.
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Old February 21st, 2009, 12:30 AM   #5
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I'd like to see it as a percentage of total moves. I can't imagine peopel are moving anywhere with the market the way it is. How are they supposed to live here if they can't sell their old house in Detroit or Buffalo?
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Old February 21st, 2009, 06:01 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HARTride 2012 View Post
I bet by 2012, people are going to start leaving FL in droves....no one can afford living here anymore.
People are already leaving in droves, or trying to... Many people are held back by the fact they can't sell their house.
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Old February 22nd, 2009, 06:17 AM   #7
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If people are leaving FL in droves, where are they going? What area has the best economy?
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Old February 22nd, 2009, 05:07 PM   #8
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People are full of shit! in other words, cant they see that the whole world is going through bad economic times?!
why is this happening you may ask? well though a lot of us blame it on bush IS OUR FAULT as well!
just think about it, does not take a genius.
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Old February 22nd, 2009, 07:39 PM   #9
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Quote:
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If people are leaving FL in droves, where are they going? What area has the best economy?
honestly i have no idea where these people are going that they think that the economy is "better"

a lot of my friends that have moved out of the state and a lot that have announced that they are moving all claim they're "going back up north" because i guess they think things will be better there. a lot of Sentinel articles about the economy have included people saying they're "moving back up north". the truth is, i have tons of friends "up north" and things are just as bad up there!

if not worse, because the cost of living is higher in boston/nyc/philly/dc/chicago...
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Old February 22nd, 2009, 07:58 PM   #10
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People aren't really trying to leave Florida to find a better economy but more so cost of living, education, and better job markets. Florida used to and still does have a majority of jobs to be service industry jobs, which most of which are low pay. Aside from that the growth Florida experienced was mostly based on the assumption Florida would keep growing. Businesses are realizing Florida has stopped growing and are leaving or going out of business. There are many jobs in other states where you could get paid more for doing the same thing. The cost of living in Florida is high if you factor in the low average wages here, the outrageous property taxes and insurance don't exactly encourage people to move or stay here. Education... well how can you not see how bad that is getting...
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Old February 23rd, 2009, 03:12 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I-275westcoastfl View Post
People aren't really trying to leave Florida to find a better economy but more so cost of living, education, and better job markets. Florida used to and still does have a majority of jobs to be service industry jobs, which most of which are low pay. Aside from that the growth Florida experienced was mostly based on the assumption Florida would keep growing. Businesses are realizing Florida has stopped growing and are leaving or going out of business. There are many jobs in other states where you could get paid more for doing the same thing. The cost of living in Florida is high if you factor in the low average wages here, the outrageous property taxes and insurance don't exactly encourage people to move or stay here. Education... well how can you not see how bad that is getting...
i don't know if i agree with you here. every night CNN and MSNBC do an "economy watch" and people can't find jobs up north either! i do agree with you, however, in that good jobs here are far outnumbered by service industry low-wage jobs. however, these better, higher-paying jobs up north are slowly becoming very, very difficult to come by.
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Old February 23rd, 2009, 04:20 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spartan21 View Post
People are full of shit! in other words, cant they see that the whole world is going through bad economic times?!
why is this happening you may ask? well though a lot of us blame it on bush IS OUR FAULT as well!
just think about it, does not take a genius.
So many people don't know that this has been a LONG time coming......

Not just Bush 43 is responsible for this mess....

.....Clinton, Bush 41, Reagan, Carter, oh.......and yes........us people as well.....


.....the roots of this mayhem go REAL DEEP my friends.......and now we are at the same economic despair as the the 1890 whatever recession, which many people considered as the "Great Depression" prior to 1929.
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Old February 23rd, 2009, 06:43 PM   #13
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Long term, Florida will still be a high-growth state and will emerge possibly stronger after this recession. I think most leaders in government and industry realize especially now that we can't rely completely on population growth to drive the economy. Might not always agree with the methodology (ie. tax breaks and other large financial incentives), but state and local governments have made significant investments towards diversifying the economy that will hopefully pay off in years to come. The only problem I see is that the state continues to put education on the backburner. I think now is the time to really invest in building a superior education system and encouraging people to retool themselves by persuing higher education while the economy is down, so that high-wage industries will seriously consider Florida for expansion and/or relocation when things pick up again.
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Old February 23rd, 2009, 10:56 PM   #14
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Florida will be fine. Just wait...
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Old February 23rd, 2009, 11:57 PM   #15
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Long term, Florida will still be a high-growth state and will emerge possibly stronger after this recession. I think most leaders in government and industry realize especially now that we can't rely completely on population growth to drive the economy. Might not always agree with the methodology (ie. tax breaks and other large financial incentives), but state and local governments have made significant investments towards diversifying the economy that will hopefully pay off in years to come. The only problem I see is that the state continues to put education on the backburner. I think now is the time to really invest in building a superior education system and encouraging people to retool themselves by persuing higher education while the economy is down, so that high-wage industries will seriously consider Florida for expansion and/or relocation when things pick up again.
True, FL may wind up being stronger after recovery....
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Old February 24th, 2009, 05:41 AM   #16
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It looks like the jobs are in Texas. I'm finding a high number of architectural jobs continuing to come online in that state's major cities.
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Old February 24th, 2009, 06:03 AM   #17
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It looks like the jobs are in Texas. I'm finding a high number of architectural jobs continuing to come online in that state's major cities.
Ugh, but Texas? I'll take Florida any day over Texas. In fact, I really like Florida, and if I had to pick between us or California, I'd say Florida is better. Of course, this opens up a whole new can of worms, but I just thought I'd throw it out there lol.
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Old February 24th, 2009, 05:11 PM   #18
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I think florida is a great state!
specially cause of the weather yearly, beaches
which no other place in the continental US during winter offers beaches well actually mild.
however its really getting hard to live in florida i must admitt. =/
maybe if obama completes what he has promise we might just end up good <

we shouldnt have bought and bought houses without money and just give out free money to people as it was done, and of course the war really took away quite a bit as well.
really think about it everything Americans have done in the past few years have contributed to the Economy we are dealing with today, and then theres all the "great presidents" but oh well its politics =/
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Old February 25th, 2009, 10:30 PM   #19
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well now florida is little sick ( a minor cold ) but don't worry she will cure pretty fast and the best is yet to come
it will emerge even better
I moved here 4 years ago I like it alot epacially winter park close to everything detroit is one big shit hole ! I am gald I am out of there
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Old February 27th, 2009, 06:40 AM   #20
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LOL compared to Detroit I can name a bunch of places that are better.
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