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Old June 17th, 2013, 05:48 PM   #5121
Shenkey
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they need around 400-500 to break even on the project

but it is true they managed to reorganise company to be more efficient, we can see by quite smooth 350
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Old June 17th, 2013, 06:17 PM   #5122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shenkey View Post
they need around 400-500 to break even on the project

but it is true they managed to reorganise company to be more efficient, we can see by quite smooth 350
With basically no competition in the super-jumbo passenger aircraft segment, I don't see why they wouldn't break-even by 2020, and for sure the aircraft would remain in production until at least 2030.

Initial break-even was at 270 aircraft, but due to the delays break-even is estimated at 400 aircraft. However, as you say, I believe 350 is feasible.
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Old June 17th, 2013, 06:36 PM   #5123
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Remain in production until 2030?

I agree, that would be great, but what happens if they don't have orders anymore? Can they keep the production line ready to start again, just in case airlines would order some more? I don't know if it's feasible and considering the current production rate, they will finish much before 2030 (probably around 2018-2020).

Basically, all the airlines that can order the A380 have already ordered the number they wanted (apart from Emirates but even with 30 orders more, we will still be far from the break even). Maybe Air Canada could order some but I highly doubt US airlines will do that. The A380 is a wonderful machine but it has been created at a time of a weak world economy and just a few airlines can order it. There has probably been an enormous mistake in the estimation of the number Airbus could sell when they were studying that :-/

By the way, even if they don't reach that point, it remains a technological wonder and just for that, it's a good thing to have it.
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Old June 17th, 2013, 07:13 PM   #5124
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The A380 is a wonderful machine but it has been created at a time of a weak world economy and just a few airlines can order it. There has probably been an enormous mistake in the estimation of the number Airbus could sell when they were studying that :-/
You miss one thing, the world economy is recovering and the A380 can get on this premise new orders in the years to come, especially since no competition is developed on this aircraft segment.

Economic recovery can also bring the possibility of firming the 30 options Airbus already has for the A380.

Speaking of potential costumers in the future, besides Air Canada I would see possible orders from Aeroflot, Turkish Airlines, Vietnam Airlines and other airlines from China.
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Old June 17th, 2013, 07:29 PM   #5125
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And let´s not forget that many current A380 customers will have to replace their "old" A380s with new A380s around 2025-2030. And without any competition in this segment this means for Airbus an endless production of the A380.
The same happened with the B747. Over 40 years airlines refreshed their Jumbo-fleets with newer models (-100 / -200 / -300 / -400 / -8I).
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Old June 17th, 2013, 08:35 PM   #5126
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Yes, Deadeye, you are probably right. That's the best chance for the A380 to get some other orders but only if Airbus develops an improved variant. I don't see Emirates replacing its oldest A380 by other A380 if there is no improvements at all.....

For Chinese airlines, maybe but I don't really believe in that since there are problems between China and EU due to pollution issues that leads to a kind of Chinese ban on the A380.
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Old June 17th, 2013, 09:26 PM   #5127
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The A380 is already operating for China Southern and will operate for Hong Kong Airlines in 2015, so I see no problem in more A380 orders coming from China.

Improvements will come naturally with time and technological progress. In fact, a slightly improved variant already appeared this year:

Quote:
From 2013, Airbus will introduce a new A380 build standard incorporating a strengthened airframe structure and a 1.5° increase in wing twist. Airbus will also offer, as an option, an improved maximum take-off weight, thus providing a better payload/range performance. Maximum take-off weight is increased by 4 t (8,800 lb), to 573 t (1,260,000 lb) and an additional 190 km (100 nmi) in range. This is achieved by reducing flight loads, partly from optimising the fly-by-wire control laws.[210] British Airways and Emirates are to be the first two customers to receive this new option.[211] Vietnam Airlines has shown interest in the higher-weight variant.[212]
[Wikipedia]
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Old June 18th, 2013, 01:53 AM   #5128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flo Flo View Post
Apparently, 5 of these A380 are for Singapore Airlines, which converted some options into firm orders. If this MoU is converted into firm order, only 15 new airframes will be effectively ordered (20 - the 5 for Singapore Airlines which were already registered as "official orders").
That really could mean Singapore Airlines will now have enough A380's to commit two planes for the SQ001/002 route between Singapore and San Francisco via Hong Kong year-round.
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Old June 18th, 2013, 06:37 AM   #5129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eurocopter View Post
And why is that? 250 orders for such a large aircraft are sufficient for 6 to 8 years of current scale production.

I would call a financial disaster the Boeing 747-8I, with only 40 orders and Lufthansa recently announcing that it will phase out the type around 2020, after less than 10 years of operation!
Apparently the airline industry have yet to recover from the effect of Septermber 11. It seemed that these days, very little airlines willing to purchase jumbo sized aircraft.
Considering that smaller airplanes could cover the distance that was once reachable only by jumbojets, at much cheaper operational cost.
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Old June 18th, 2013, 07:32 AM   #5130
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The news that Lufthansa wants to retire their 747-8Is turned out to be a mistake by the journalist, they only want to replace the last 747-400s from 2020. What could be true is the rumor that Lufthansa will convert part of it's 747-8I order to 777-9Xs

Speaking of Lufthansa, they firmed up their new A320 order yesterday but not the top-up order for 2 A380s that was also part of the big order announcement in March. I wonder if they decided to wait a bit longer to firm that one up, or if they just want to get the double publicity and firm it up separately later this week.
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Old June 18th, 2013, 01:07 PM   #5131
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If you look at the trend of aviation, it's that there's an increasing shift towards larger aircraft. The 787, even the -8, is larger than the 767; the A350 is larger than the A330; the bulk of 777-300ERs today are carrying more passengers than the 747-400. By the same reasoning, the 777X will be larger. And each iteration or transition is happening faster... The A380's time isn't now, but perhaps in a decade or so's time. Many of the A380's existing customers ordered it because they need them - and they will continue to order the A380... Until the traction for the A380 begins.
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Old June 18th, 2013, 01:42 PM   #5132
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We should also consider B747 production history. If you look at the following chart, you can see 3 production peaks, one at its introduction in 1970-71, the second one between 1979-81 and the last one 1990-93.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_...and_deliveries

The second and third production peaks were most likely reached due to technology improvements and fleet renewing processes, as well as good economic context. My 2 cents is that we will see in the case of the A380 at least one future production peak as well.
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Old June 18th, 2013, 05:25 PM   #5133
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Well there was the 747-100/200/300/SP/400. There was five different commercial variants of the 747 produced and developed. If Airbus develops more variants of the A380we will see production speaks.
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Old June 19th, 2013, 02:20 PM   #5134
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Garuda Indonesia Looking At The A380 And 747

Quote:
Garuda Indonesia is considering the purchase of the A380 or 747-8i in partnership with its government to help ferry religious pilgrims to Saudi Arabia.

> Garuda want three to five VLA's for the Hajj Trips
> Garuda is evaluating both A380 and 747-8i
> A purchase may come "very soon"
> First delivery in 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ajj-trips.html
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Old June 20th, 2013, 07:43 PM   #5135
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Quote:
Airbus Explores A380 Superjumbo Refresher to Help Rekindle Sales


Airbus SAS said it’s starting to explore ways to refresh its flagship A380 to improve performance toward the end of the decade and keep the double-decker plane competitive as newer long-range jets draw customers.

“We really need to think about how we keep the A380 sharp,” Tom Williams, Airbus executive vice president for programs, said in an interview at the Paris Air Show. Newer planes from Boeing Co. (BA) and others Airbus itself is building mean the economics of the A380 need further improvement, he said.
full article on Reuters:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...dle-sales.html

Airbus is not looking at a stretch, just an improvement of the engines and other technical changes. Making it possible to go 11-abreast on the main deck is also part of the update.
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Old June 23rd, 2013, 12:35 AM   #5136
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To gain momentum you need consumer increasing orders, this is just what has happened with this plane. The fact that a leasing company makes an order makes evident that there are routes where this plane is really suitable for. It is very clear that a day will come for this airplane, not so far away in time, in fact if we had future Chinese/asian orders in the next 10 years, plus renewals + leasing companies the numbers will be close to financial break even. Maybe not the dream Airbus would have liked, but getting closer to success.

Last edited by Rayancito; June 23rd, 2013 at 01:49 AM.
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Old June 23rd, 2013, 01:07 PM   #5137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
full article on Reuters:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...dle-sales.html

Airbus is not looking at a stretch, just an improvement of the engines and other technical changes. Making it possible to go 11-abreast on the main deck is also part of the update.
That doesn't sound good.
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Old June 23rd, 2013, 05:29 PM   #5138
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Doesn't sound good for Cathay Pacific who was thinking of ordering the A380-9 if they made a variant. Emirates would probably order the 11 across for routes that are high demand.
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Old June 26th, 2013, 07:57 PM   #5139
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Alright people we can quit the guessing game for where the first Qatar Airways first A380s will go to. Just an email from ATW saying the first route will be Doha to London Heathrow airport.
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Old June 27th, 2013, 02:20 PM   #5140
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Originally Posted by GTR66 View Post
Alright people we can quit the guessing game for where the first Qatar Airways first A380s will go to. Just an email from ATW saying the first route will be Doha to London Heathrow airport.
and next is Paris CDG
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