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Old January 23rd, 2015, 12:59 PM   #7161
siamu maharaj
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You need more customers also because you can't just develop for one single airline. So you spend $3 billion and suppose Emirates goes bust or something happens to it, or it can't expand or whatever. That's $3 billion down the drain.
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Old January 23rd, 2015, 01:31 PM   #7162
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That shows a bit the Emirates paradox.

Because of the rapid growth of Emirates other airlines are reluctant to buy (more) A380s. Therefor another big Emirates order will not motivate other airlines to buy the neo as well, as their growth is limited because of the competition from Emirates.

But this also means that when Emirates goes under (like when the bubble breaks, or when the regional unrests reach Dubai) there will be an significant instant growth of passengers for the airlines. The sudden availibilty of A380 delivery slots will then become very interesting for those airlines that benefit the most from Emirates collapse. Airbus should then not find it too difficult to resell all those slots to other airlines.

The bigger issue with just 1 large airline as a customer is that even Emirates will not be able to take delivery of 30 A380s per year.
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Old January 23rd, 2015, 08:31 PM   #7163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffalomatt1027 View Post
The Research and development to build the NEO itself ...... wont come cheap.

- new Engines
- avionics
- carbon fiber body

and so on. That needs to be straightened out and put together.

100 380 NEOs is not enough ..... you dont build a new plane just for 100 or so sales. Its not worth it.
An A380neo would have:
- new engines of course
- aerodynamic tweeks
- adapted avionics where necessary to handle the new engines
- maybe some kind of sharklet, but the wings would remain fondamentaly unchanged.
- CFRP body => that's a big NO, would cost way too much for not so much gain (a big part of A380 is already lightweight material), in fact it would be a whole new aircraft, call it A390 not A380neo.
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Old January 25th, 2015, 03:26 AM   #7164
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[IMG]http://i61.************/k2xqv6.jpg[/IMG]
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Airbu...841/2580622/L/
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Old January 25th, 2015, 12:11 PM   #7165
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Wasn"t this one going to be a V.I.P A380..??
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Old January 25th, 2015, 12:14 PM   #7166
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Wasn"t this one going to be a V.I.P A380..??
Yes it was the one supposed to be sold to a private
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Old January 25th, 2015, 04:49 PM   #7167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EK413 View Post
Don't need to tell me, try telling that to the original Mr Buffalo who's living in a world of his own.
My point about the NEO is that just because Emirates wants 100 planes .... doesnt force airbus into building it. Airbus would need more commitments from airlines other then Emirates.

Ask Boeing about the -8i. You dont build updated plane just to get few orders. Boeing is rumored to have spent 1 to 2 billion on the 747-8i and they havent sold very many. Boeing right now is probly pissed at the investment they made and that more airlines arent buying that plane.

380 has had customers back out and besides the emirates order. What other airline has said to be buying 380s? I havent read anything in the news about it.
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Old January 25th, 2015, 05:18 PM   #7168
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I can see Etihad, and Qatar ordering a few units.

Singapore, Lufthansa, British Airways, Korean, Asiana, Thai could also order the NEO.

We might see some new airlines also place orders.
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Old January 26th, 2015, 04:42 AM   #7169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffalomatt1027 View Post
You dont build updated plane just to get few orders.
Boeing built 6 x B744ER's specifically for QF. No other carrier operates the -400ER passenger variant...
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Old January 26th, 2015, 08:08 AM   #7170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EK413 View Post
Boeing built 6 x B744ER's specifically for QF. No other carrier operates the -400ER passenger variant...
That cost was amortized over the entire 747 development though. Not the same as the A388 which will probably not even pay for its own R&D cost let alone that of other variants.

Besides, there was very little incremental cost in going from 747-400 to -400ER.
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Old January 26th, 2015, 08:47 AM   #7171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
I can see Etihad, and Qatar ordering a few units.
I do think they will place orders as big as their orders for the current a380.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
Singapore, Lufthansa, British Airways, Korean, Asiana, Thai could also order the NEO.
The most likely of those airlines to place an order is Singapore Airlines and it actually might be a quite large order .There are rumors that SQ is looking into the 777X which I think fits more as a 777-300ER replacement than a a380 replacement . And the fact that SQ hasn't placed an order for the 777X might mean that SQ is waiting for the A380NEO launch. Considering that SQ has always been a trend-setter in terms of product, I do believe SQ wants to respond to what Etihad unveiled last year and for that, SQ highly likely needs an aircraft as large as the A380.


Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
We might see some new airlines also place orders.
Cathay is a potential customer that Airbus really needs to lure. CX has many routes (London, US and Australia) that fit the a380. CX has used all their rights in Australia, what CX does for now is upgauge to the 777-300ER. Even if CX has some 777-9X on order, upgauging to it won't be enough (it's only 50 extra seats at most and its first 777X will only get delivered in 6 years). The same problem goes to its London route. CX will eventually need the A380 to keep growing.
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Old January 26th, 2015, 02:35 PM   #7172
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Old January 26th, 2015, 05:05 PM   #7173
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Airbus A380-861 Korean Air HL7611 (CDG) by Yohann CASSE, on Flickr
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Old January 26th, 2015, 05:55 PM   #7174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Male View Post
The most likely of those airlines to place an order is Singapore Airlines and it actually might be a quite large order .There are rumors that SQ is looking into the 777X which I think fits more as a 777-300ER replacement than a a380 replacement . And the fact that SQ hasn't placed an order for the 777X might mean that SQ is waiting for the A380NEO launch. Considering that SQ has always been a trend-setter in terms of product, I do believe SQ wants to respond to what Etihad unveiled last year and for that, SQ highly likely needs an aircraft as large as the A380.



Cathay is a potential customer that Airbus really needs to lure. CX has many routes (London, US and Australia) that fit the a380. CX has used all their rights in Australia, what CX does for now is upgauge to the 777-300ER. Even if CX has some 777-9X on order, upgauging to it won't be enough (it's only 50 extra seats at most and its first 777X will only get delivered in 6 years). The same problem goes to its London route. CX will eventually need the A380 to keep growing.
Airbus would love to have CX as a customer for the A380 but they seem not to want the aircraft. They have been taking delivery of 777s and they have the 777x on order which can fly 400 passengers on two engines instead of four. Cathay also has the A350-100 on order too. So it looks like CX will go with frequency instead of number of seats on certain routes. Just like how BA wont put the A380 on the LHR-JFK-LHR. They use the A330 on India/ME/Asia/Australia routes that dont require a huge number of seats. If they need to bump up the number of seats then they would put the 777 on a route. I could see SQ being an early customer of the NEO since they use the A380 on select routes and they have some of the earliest built frames that are flying today.
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Old January 26th, 2015, 07:29 PM   #7175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuboy View Post
That cost was amortized over the entire 747 development though. Not the same as the A388 which will probably not even pay for its own R&D cost let alone that of other variants. Besides, there was very little incremental cost in going from 747-400 to -400ER.
Correct, however an aircraft / variant with improvements was developed due to a carriers requests regardless of minimal costs involved. Airbus will be prepared to develop the NEO version due to EKs interests in the type.
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Old January 26th, 2015, 08:27 PM   #7176
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According to the french newspaper "Le Figaro", Turkish Airlines is negotiating the purchase of at least 10 A380.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/201...it-10-a380.php
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Old January 26th, 2015, 10:54 PM   #7177
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According to the french newspaper "Le Figaro", Turkish Airlines is negotiating the purchase of at least 10 A380.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/201...it-10-a380.php
Reuters is reporting that also. Sounds like a good thing for Airbus. JFK,LAX,IAH,BKK,HKG,PEK,NRT are good contenders for the A380s.
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Old January 26th, 2015, 10:57 PM   #7178
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Also german newspapers are reporting that Turkish Airlines makes negotiations with Airbus about an order of +10 Airbus A380 worth of 4 billion Dollars.
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Old January 26th, 2015, 11:47 PM   #7179
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Not the same as the A388 which will probably not even pay for its own R&D cost let alone that of other variants.
The R&D spent for A380 does not only benefit to the A380, so why should it be to the A380 alone to repay for it?
R&D is necessary to stay up to date, and even if it is spent for a pregram that will not completely repay it, it may benefit for the development of the next.

For instance, many of the developments done for A380, ware re-used (and improved) for the A350 : IMA, AFDX, electrical actuators allowing to get rid of one hydro circuit, 5000 psi hydro circuits, and this to name just a few of the innovation brought by the A380!
So if the A380 had not been done (which would have been the correct decision according to some people), were would be Airbus today:
- either with an A350 costing way more in R&D because they started with way less know-how and with outdated technologies.
- or with an A350 with outdated technologies.

All this to say that R&D benefit the whole company and are necessary whatever the commercial result of their primary application.
This is why trying to calculate a program break-even is nonsense.
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Old January 27th, 2015, 02:34 AM   #7180
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To make a long story short they're stock says it all.
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