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Old July 21st, 2015, 06:16 PM   #7561
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Airbus says its going to take at least five years for the A380NEO to be built and delivered after design studies and flight testing and certification even if they started today. The new Istanbul airport will be open by then and TK will be even a bigger player on the international market for air and cargo than they are today. They will need the A380 its only a matter of time.
The airport will certainly be open by 2020-2022 and yes I agree TK need to have such an aircraft by then. Especially for airports were simply buying landing slots is not easy such as Heathrow. Some have even suggested they might lease some A380s before then to try it out like in the case of the 777-300ER. (Malaysia's A380s are the suggested aircraft).

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EY said that they are not going to take any more A380CEOs and i dont expect them to get the A380NEO.
They would need to replace the A380s they would be getting in the near future though.

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CX would be good candidate since HKG is getting more crowded by the year
They are already having issues increasing capacity to London or so they say.
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Old July 21st, 2015, 11:22 PM   #7562
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They almost certainly will not, they serve destinations which cannot sustain flights operated by EK's A330s, 777s or A380s. But I agree that EK, EY and QR will likely order the plane along with SQ, CX, BA and TK in the long run.



From what I have read they are waiting for the New Istanbul Airport to be built since Ataturk Airport cannot take A380s.
Oh no, I was a bit unclear with what I said. I was talking about general orders for all aircraft not just the A380. One anticipated order besides the A380 NEO one for EK, is the order for either the A350 or B787.

Orders for the A380NEO will only come from EK and QR. I think its too big for EY.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 12:47 AM   #7563
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All Airbus did with the latest statement is buy themselves an extra five years to develop an up graded A380 while stalling what needs to be done sooner, or later. It could easily be done by 2020.

Now if I were EK I would seriously approach Boeing, and see if there is any chance of them making an all new ultra large aircraft with the latest technology. This would be the A380 killer with an all composite fuselage, and wings, and even newer fuel efficient engines. They could even make the all new ultra large aircraft with two engines. Boeing would have this market all to them selves, who would buy an A380NEO vs a Superior all new Boeing ultra large airliner???

EK could replace all of they're A380's with this new aircraft, and practically pay for a big chunk of the research, and development to make this aircraft a reality. EK's long term future plans are from any where in between 200-400 ultra large aircraft in it's fleet once DWC is in full swing.

This new ultra large aircraft could easily be at least 20 percent more fuel efficient than today's A380. I'm sure Boeing could give the new ultra large aircraft more range, more cargo capacity, more fuel efficiency to attract all the other airlines that considered the A380, but were reluctant to buy it.

To add salt to the wound if I were EK I would also go with the 787-10 program.

My two cents.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 02:39 AM   #7564
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Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
All Airbus did with the latest statement is buy themselves an extra five years to develop an up graded A380 while stalling what needs to be done sooner, or later. It could easily be done by 2020.

Now if I were EK I would seriously approach Boeing, and see if there is any chance of them making an all new ultra large aircraft with the latest technology. This would be the A380 killer with an all composite fuselage, and wings, and even newer fuel efficient engines. They could even make the all new ultra large aircraft with two engines. Boeing would have this market all to them selves, who would buy an A380NEO vs a Superior all new Boeing ultra large airliner???

EK could replace all of they're A380's with this new aircraft, and practically pay for a big chunk of the research, and development to make this aircraft a reality. EK's long term future plans are from any where in between 200-400 ultra large aircraft in it's fleet once DWC is in full swing.

This new ultra large aircraft could easily be at least 20 percent more fuel efficient than today's A380. I'm sure Boeing could give the new ultra large aircraft more range, more cargo capacity, more fuel efficiency to attract all the other airlines that considered the A380, but were reluctant to buy it.

To add salt to the wound if I were EK I would also go with the 787-10 program.

My two cents.
Another Boeing fanboy?

These ultra-large, ultra efficient aircraft aren't easily designed. There's still a lot of research to go into these composite materials as it is a fairly new field. And in due course, I'm sure there will be lighter, stronger materials produced for new aircraft but this isn't exclusive only to Boeing. I'm sure AB will also spend time and money in this field also.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 08:42 AM   #7565
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I'm no bigger a Boeing fan thaen Airbus. I'm just seeing an Airbus pattern here with what they did with the A330 upgrade delay, then launching the XWB in the end which was just stalling, and wastingv valuable time.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 08:44 AM   #7566
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 12:29 PM   #7567
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If Emirates would go to Boeing to ask them to develop a new ultra VLA they would simply offer them the 747-8I. Like GE already did recently because EK had switched to RR on the remaining A380, this was done without any success.

Boeing is not going to invest in such a new large platform after the disappointing sales of the 747-8I and the A380. They will need more airlines then just Emirates, or even all current A380 operators to do such a plane. Seeing how Airbus is progressing with a A380neo it's clear that there's currently no such market.

And Airbus is in the position where they don't have to do a neo, or just a very basic neo. If they don't Emirates will most likely still buy more A380ceo's. But then it will indeed become more likely that the they will order he 787-10 instead of reordering the A350. But that order is still no done deal, it could even go Boeing if Airbus does launch the A380neo at the Dubai Airshow. Emirates will seek the best deal for both orders, it doesn't have to be related.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 01:55 PM   #7568
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Oh no, I was a bit unclear with what I said. I was talking about general orders for all aircraft not just the A380.
So you were saying that FlyDubai might order some addtional planes?

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Originally Posted by EmiratesAirline380 View Post
One anticipated order besides the A380 NEO one for EK, is the order for either the A350 or B787.
Agreed, especially considering their recent actions on this order (they scrapped the orginal A350 order earlier this year).

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Orders for the A380NEO will only come from EK and QR. I think its too big for EY.
You might be right about EY, but EK and QR are not going to be the only ones ondering the A380neo. CX, BA, SQ and TK might as well.

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Boeing is not going to invest in such a new large platform after the disappointing sales of the 747-8I and the A380. They will need more airlines then just Emirates, or even all current A380 operators to do such a plane. Seeing how Airbus is progressing with a A380neo it's clear that there's currently no such market.
You have a point, however one must add that demand for such aircraft is going to rise since implementing airport expansion is eaiser said than done in relation to several countries such as my own.

Likewise if a plane can (and this is a question mark) deliver such fuel savings then airlines which have passed on the A380 might reconsider such a plane.

I admit that Boeing would be wary of such a project and perhaps they might want to look at replacing the 737 first. But if such benefits can be met then maybe they should look into doing it. At least by the 2030s-2040s.

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And Airbus is in the position where they don't have to do a neo, or just a very basic neo. If they don't Emirates will most likely still buy more A380ceo's. But then it will indeed become more likely that the they will order he 787-10 instead of reordering the A350. But that order is still no done deal, it could even go Boeing if Airbus does launch the A380neo at the Dubai Airshow. Emirates will seek the best deal for both orders, it doesn't have to be related.
Perhaps EK could throw in some FZ orders of the A330neo as well as their own possible A350 order to get Airbus to develop the A380neo?

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Now if I were EK I would seriously approach Boeing, and see if there is any chance of them making an all new ultra large aircraft with the latest technology. This would be the A380 killer with an all composite fuselage, and wings, and even newer fuel efficient engines. They could even make the all new ultra large aircraft with two engines. Boeing would have this market all to them selves, who would buy an A380NEO vs a Superior all new Boeing ultra large airliner???
So basically a giant double-decker 787 then? If it is going to be 2 engined then those engines would have to be far larger than what we have been previously. Can an engine with 175,000-200,000 lbf engine be possible. Because that is what is needed to power such a plane, perhaps even more.

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EK could replace all of they're A380's with this new aircraft, and practically pay for a big chunk of the research, and development to make this aircraft a reality. EK's long term future plans are from any where in between 200-400 ultra large aircraft in it's fleet once DWC is in full swing.
How many orders would it take for Boeing to consider such a project to be viable? Would 500 do or would more needed?

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This new ultra large aircraft could easily be at least 20 percent more fuel efficient than today's A380. I'm sure Boeing could give the new ultra large aircraft more range, more cargo capacity, more fuel efficiency to attract all the other airlines that considered the A380, but were reluctant to buy it.
In the event Boeing decide to build such a "797", then one would think other airlines such as SQ and CX would be interested if such a plan is possible...
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 03:06 PM   #7569
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Regarding engines lets look at the 77W first. It's engines have 115,000 lbf of thrust each, then the 779 which will have a larger/longer, but lighter wing, and 2.6 meter stretch of the fuselage will have a pair of engines with 105,000 lbf of thrust each.

The A388 has four engines with 76,000 lbf of thrust each. Now if you make an all new ultra large airliner with carbon fiber air frame, and wing I think it could work with a pair of engines in the thrust range of 130,000 lbf - 160,000 lbf which is manageable.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 03:35 PM   #7570
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You have a point, however one must add that demand for such aircraft is going to rise since implementing airport expansion is eaiser said than done in relation to several countries such as my own.
As the only airline which uses the full advantages of the A380 is an airline that also uses a superhub structure it doesn't seem to be the case that rising demand will result in a larger market for a plane the size of an A380.

For other airlines there are only a couple of airports that are slot restricted in a such a way that only bigger planes can accommodate growth. It's more likely that we will see more point to point routes, abolishing the need to transfer at the slot restricted hub airports.

Growth markets as India and China also have a very fragmented market. There are a lot of large cities which will all get a part of the growth. This does mean that there won't be any routes that will dominate, therefor the need for a A380 won't be as big as for smaller larger planes. China placing an order for a lot of regional A330s already shows this. This is also the case for international travel to China. It's now already divided between Hong Kong, Shanghai & Beijing. But we now also see more and more 2nd tier cities getting intercontinental flights, also from airlines from China. Again a trend that is working against the A380.

A larger overall market will make it easier for the A380 to survive, but it's not a given that we will see a lot of A380s flying in all these growth markets in the 2020s.

These discussions on which other airlines are likely to order the A380 next have gone on for years now, but the reality is that the A380 hasn't been sold to any new airline since 2011 (Asiana). Every new order since then has been cancelled or is likely to be cancelled (Hong Kong Airlines, Skymark, Transaero). All the airlines that are named, don't seem to be interested for now. Even a Turkish Airlines has come up all the time, but it's always followed by a denial that they are not interested or that they changed their minds.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 03:57 PM   #7571
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Regarding engines lets look at the 77W first. It's engines have 115,000 lbf of thrust each, then the 779 which will have a larger/longer, but lighter wing, and 2.6 meter stretch of the fuselage will have a pair of engines with 105,000 lbf of thrust each.
I think the power rating of the 777-9X might end up rising due to the higher than expected weight of the plane in question. Still 115,000 lbf is in the right ballpark here.

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The A388 has four engines with 76,000 lbf of thrust each. Now if you make an all new ultra large airliner with carbon fiber air frame, and wing I think it could work with a pair of engines in the thrust range of 130,000 lbf - 160,000 lbf which is manageable.
It is more 80,000 lbf in the case of the A380. Likewise you also need addtional thurst to take account of ETOPS and the risks of only operating with 1 engine.

So I would think an engine with 170,000-180,000 lbf would be needed (Especially for the larger versions to match a proposed A380-900). Which it is possible to produce although it would still be a very large one.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 04:25 PM   #7572
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As the only airline which uses the full advantages of the A380 is an airline that also uses a superhub structure it doesn't seem to be the case that rising demand will result in a larger market for a plane the size of an A380.

For other airlines there are only a couple of airports that are slot restricted in a such a way that only bigger planes can accommodate growth. It's more likely that we will see more point to point routes, abolishing the need to transfer at the slot restricted hub airports.
The problem is that if we are going to see increased flights on smaller aircraft then it would still need expansion of other airports. Likewise I feel that we would see more hub to point flights insted. After all the 787 allows more distant non-stop destinations with less demand to be served and this meaning that for example allowing BA to serve destinations such as Austin that it could not serve in the past.

I am not saying you are completely wrong and you have some points to make, but when it comes to cities such as London for example even if air travel growth means more direct fight to smaller cities how exactly are they going to come about if they cannot land at the airport. Remember even if Heathrow got a 3rd runway by 2020 chances are there would already be a need for a 4th on (quite frankly LHR should have got an addtional runway years ago)

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Growth markets as India and China also have a very fragmented market. There are a lot of large cities which will all get a part of the growth. This does mean that there won't be any routes that will dominate, therefor the need for a A380 won't be as big as for smaller larger planes.China placing an order for a lot of regional A330s already shows this. This is also the case for international travel to China. It's now already divided between Hong Kong, Shanghai & Beijing. But we now also see more and more 2nd tier cities getting intercontinental flights, also from airlines from China. Again a trend that is working against the A380.
On India, I agree that in the long run demand for international flights will rise not just in Delhi and Bombay but other cities as well including smaller and less well known cities. The problem is however is if it will be met via hubs or though direct flights.

Firstly for various reasons (Especially the Gulf Carriers) International Flights to India are not high-yielding thus overseas carriers are wary of expanding in relation towards India*, secondly developing airport infrastructure does take time to build (Bombay Airport for example is too small to serve the city) and lastly there is no domestic airline that has the resources to serve international flights beyond the main cities since Air India focuses on Delhi and Bombay, Jet Airways is a branch of Eithad and the others are focused on domestic and regional flights.

China has less of those issues, but they still have to deal with getting slots in Airports such as London and JFK. CX for example wants to increase their flights to LHR but have been unable to do because of this capacity issue. I would agree with you though that demand for aircraft such as the A330 is higher than for A380s. At least for now anyway.

*United is the only American Carrier serving India with non-stop flights while even BA (which has the largest Indian network of flights of any European Network) serves only 5 destinations (Delhi, Bombay, Bangalore, Chennai and Hydrabad) while Air France-KLM serve 3 (Delhi, Bombay and Bangalore while Lufthana serve 4 (Delhi, Bombay, Bangalore and Chennai) as well as getting PrivatAir to serve Pune.

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A larger overall market will make it easier for the A380 to survive, but it's not a given that we will see a lot of A380s flying in all these growth markets in the 2020s.
I am not suggesting that there are tens of thousands of A380 orders that will come about in the near future, rather I am saying that demand for such an aircraft and especially one which has less cost per passenger would rise in the next few decades, how much is another matter.

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These discussions on which other airlines are likely to order the A380 next have gone on for years now, but the reality is that the A380 hasn't been sold to any new airline since 2011 (Asiana). Every new order since then has been cancelled or is likely to be cancelled (Hong Kong Airlines, Skymark, Transaero). All the airlines that are named, don't seem to be interested for now. Even a Turkish Airlines has come up all the time, but it's always followed by a denial that they are not interested or that they changed their minds.
To be honest though, I held the view that airlines such as Hong Kong Airlines, Skymark, Transaero were not the sorts of airlines which could use A380s due to the sorts of routes they flew (which need to have both high demand and the right sort of demand). Thus the number of airlines that could fly the A380 without making a loss is less than with the 787.

As for TK, the main reason why they have not as of yet ordered A380s is mainly because IST simply cannot serve the place for capacity reasons, they barely manage with the numbers of 777-300ERs they use. Hence why the new airport cannot come soon enough.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 04:57 PM   #7573
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I don't that an airline will just buy the A380 just because they have issues to increase their capacity to just 1 airport. Even if Heathrow is one of the most important destinations for Cathay. I guess that's also the reason why they haven't yet ordered the A380. They should be able to fill several A380 to London, but being such a large plane does limit the flexibility they currently have with their enormous 777 fleet.

Yes they have stated in the past that they would be interested in an even larger A380, but those statements are already years old and have been replaced by different statements which show their preference for twin-engined planes.
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Old July 22nd, 2015, 05:22 PM   #7574
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I don't that an airline will just buy the A380 just because they have issues to increase their capacity to just 1 airport.
Well Heathrow is far from the only example of an airport which has issues with runway capacity.

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Even if Heathrow is one of the most important destinations for Cathay. I guess that's also the reason why they haven't yet ordered the A380. They should be able to fill several A380 to London, but being such a large plane does limit the flexibility they currently have with their enormous 777 fleet.
Personally I suggest to solve Cathay's capacity issues on this route they should agree an JV/ATI deal with BA to allow those frequencies to be operated by BA's A380s but it seems that is not going happen.

Likewise operating LHR-HKG requires a fair number of planes due to the distance and frequency and they could also use it for HKG-Australia and HKG-JFK for example.

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Yes they have stated in the past that they would be interested in an even larger A380, but those statements are already years old and have been replaced by different statements which show their preference for twin-engined planes.
Well they don't need to keep repeating the point do they? I think what they are trying to say is "We would perfer to operate our routes with twin-engined planes but if the plane is right and we have routes that can meet such demand we would be willing to go for four-engined planes"

In short, unless there is demand for a plane that size they prefer twin-engined planes.
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Old July 23rd, 2015, 08:21 AM   #7575
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I thought the sale of the Spanish airport http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/0...140728677.html may have been because planes these days rather go direct in a smaller aircraft rather to a big hub even if it has a high speed rail adjacent.

Could this have an influence in what I have heard are not many orders for the 380 and if the world economy picks up in five years would there be a need for bigger airports and bigger planes??
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Old July 23rd, 2015, 08:34 AM   #7576
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@British Republic

There aren't really any other airports in large cities that have the same capacity issues as Heathrow. The current operators, except for Emirates which has it's own model, seem to be using them primarily on big routes, not so much on constrained routes. Even BA, which should be affected most by Heathrow's capacity issues only ordered 12 and is replacing the remainder of their 747s with 787s and A350s. So even Heathrow capacity issues, especially now it will likely get a new runway, might be not be too big to be a problem for it's main user.

And yes, the change of Cathay's public comments on A380 sized planes is important for the A380 project. Airbus needs all the support they need, vocal, out in the open support, as it's also involves the approval of the investors in Airbus who might not necessarily be too happy about Airbus spending more money on a program that doesn't seem to be generating too much, or even any profit at all. More airlines giving their support will make it easier for Airbus to go ahead with the project with direct support of the investors.
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Old July 23rd, 2015, 12:33 PM   #7577
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Old July 23rd, 2015, 01:50 PM   #7578
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There aren't really any other airports in large cities that have the same capacity issues as Heathrow.
You have a point to a certain extent, however this might change in the future depending on future airport expansion.

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The current operators, except for Emirates which has it's own model, seem to be using them primarily on big routes, not so much on constrained routes.
Well in the case of Heathrow many airlines which have the A380 in their fleets use them to fly to Heathrow. If there were a lot of slots to play with at Heathrow I would think they would prefer to increase their frequnecy of flights in many cases but that is not really possible.

So I would say they yes use them on big routes but especially those which are constrained in terms of slot capacity.

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Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
Even BA, which should be affected most by Heathrow's capacity issues only ordered 12 and is replacing the remainder of their 747s with 787s and A350s.
Well they have increased their slot holdings by buying BMI and Aer Lingus thus meaning that IAG (BA's parent company) and their partners American Airlines hold 58.1% of the Slots at Heathrow. The problem is though once they have used the new slots to increase frequency or introduce new routes where else can they get slots.

After all the second largest slot holder is currently Lufthansa Group-United Airlines at 10.3%, Air France-KLM-Delta-Virgin Atlantic at 9.5% and SAS at 2.9%, neither of which want to pull out of Heathrow, the rest have even less than that.

Thus in the long run BA would likely have to order addtional A380s in rhe nesr future. Likewise the 787-10s replacing 747-400s would likely end up being used to take the place of order 777s. So I would think that the ultimate 747 replacement (which will happen over quite some time since the plane will still be used well into the 2020s) will be A380s, A350s and maybe 777Xs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
So even Heathrow capacity issues, especially now it will likely get a new runway, might be not be too big to be a problem for it's main user.
I would not hold by breath over this one, this Government has yet to grand planning permission for such a runway and remember such permission was granted by the last government which this one ended up scrapping.

So we are still going to be waiting for it to actually get built and likewise even if it was finished last week the capacity issues will still be there to a lesser extent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
And yes, the change of Cathay's public comments on A380 sized planes is important for the A380 project. Airbus needs all the support they need, vocal, out in the open support, as it's also involves the approval of the investors in Airbus who might not necessarily be too happy about Airbus spending more money on a program that doesn't seem to be generating too much, or even any profit at all. More airlines giving their support will make it easier for Airbus to go ahead with the project with direct support of the investors.
Agreed, although I would add the new technology that was used in this project is going to be used to some extent on other Airbus projects, which would bring about some financial benefits.
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Old July 24th, 2015, 08:05 PM   #7579
Elktest
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start the engines
A380 Etihad A6-APD by XFW-Spotter, auf Flickr

A380 Etihad A6-APD by XFW-Spotter, auf Flickr
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Old July 25th, 2015, 01:39 AM   #7580
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Enjoy the sunset from an Airbus A380-800 over Siberia (my 5th flight on the Lufthansa A380 between Shanghai and Frankfurt). Economy Class had an occupancy rate of around 30%.

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