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Old October 7th, 2015, 12:29 AM   #7681
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Putting both things together i will assume that Emirates will sale as much Boeing 777 as needed to continue their actual way of doing, that is needed in order to stick to just a 10% capacity increase, if they will not sale planes capacity will be increased above 10%. In fact that means substituting the Boeing´s by the airbus, which is actually one of the classical arguments of the Airbus A380, it allows to increase the capacity of an Airport without new terminals or pathways.

Well lets say 25 A380s fly 7 days a week every week and have 500 pax total capacity per flight and with an average of 1.5 flights arriving at Dubai daily for the 25 flying planes out of 30.

Thats (25x1.5=37.5)x 80% of 500 or 15000 pax a day delivered to Dubai.

x 365 days a year.... 5.5M Pax. 5.5m pax is about the linear growth in Emirates traffic every year since 2012 too.

Emirates have stacks of 777-300ER birds on order too. These 'only' seat 350 pax. 777x coming post 2020.

But the airport itself can only cope with perhaps 80m pax before it starts to congest and that is due end 2016 which is why I picked that date. They might get to 90m with full on 24 hour operation and the same terminals. But they will hit that number end 2018 anyway at their growth rate.

On the other side of the coin Etihad who have already hideously congested Abu Dhabi next door get a brand new 30m pax terminal of their own in 2017 and they carry far fewer pax than Emirates. By the time they get in the door they could be at north of 21m pax and growing at 4m a year so they might need to start announcing something in Dubai themselves.

The airport can also decant customer airlines to the new airport but that will only account for 1-2 years worth of recent Emirates growth given the limited terminal capacity at Al Makhtoum.

Their older and smaller holdings fleet are the smaller planes (bar the A340 retiring this month). They are not getting out of 777-300ER planes that all carry 300pax plus, perhaps smaller A330s and 200LRs.

My suspicion is Emirates MIGHT order A350-1000 next year partly to either get out of (or slow down) some A380 deliveries. If they slow down deliveries to a trickle then the product is still alive by 2020 and an A380neo might be on the cards then, especially if it fits very neatly onto the same airframe as the ceo.

The A350-1000 engine itself is going aloft to be tested on A380 MSN001 some time late this year, perhaps that will double in time as the neo (with a few tweaks) as the form evidently fits the airframe.

But if Emirates keep growing as they recently have and even with booting other airlines out of Dubai the place will be heaving by 2020 and ordering new A380s would be mad. Getting a stupendously huge terminal built will be the priority.

So the future of the A380 at the Dubai Airshow, to my mind, will be tied to whatever announcements are made about a megaterminal at Al Makhtoum airport, 120m pax on day one I should think.

The first A380neo will probably be first to land in Dubai on the day _that_ opens.

Emirates economics are astonishing and their customer service is second to none in the whole world. People fly Emirates because of their reputation for customer service AND pricing. The A380 is an integral part of their reputation for customer service, I never met anyone who didn't love cattle class on an Emirates A380 on their travels.

Getting customers is no problem for them....and there is no nasty shock anywhere in the pipeline there that I can see.

See.


Last edited by sponge_bob; October 7th, 2015 at 01:44 AM.
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Old October 7th, 2015, 03:59 AM   #7682
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I agree that Emirates will replace first all small planes, but then it will have to replace the older 777 300, unless it wants to growth at dramatic rates, as you mentioned there are 777 300 ER coming, also. Such a growth will not make any sense, sooner than later the 777 300 will start to be replaced. In fact if they have problems on the airports they may choose to increase their rates in order to increase profitability, slow down the rate of capacity growth and therefore minimizing the size of the fleet.

https://www.planespotters.net/produc...7/777-300?p=13

I do not see your point of their lack of interest in more orders of the A380, i insist it is their only way to increase capacity without affecting the airport. Furthermore, any delays in the Boeing 777 8x and 9x can only be coped in practice by Emirates with more A380´s.

https://www.planespotters.net/produc...7/777-300?p=13
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Old October 7th, 2015, 10:22 AM   #7683
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I agree with you on price. They'll up them to manage down the growth in pax. Their Skytrax ratings are high so they will get away with it.

As Etihad Turkish and Emirates all need new terminals pronto (some very printo) that leaves Doha as the only airport that can handle rapid sustained growth out to 2020 in that region.
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Old October 7th, 2015, 03:18 PM   #7684
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Emirates A380 featuring Jennifer Aniston



#firstworldproblems
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Old October 7th, 2015, 04:04 PM   #7685
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I agree with you on price. They'll up them to manage down the growth in pax. Their Skytrax ratings are high so they will get away with it.

As Etihad Turkish and Emirates all need new terminals pronto (some very printo) that leaves Doha as the only airport that can handle rapid sustained growth out to 2020 in that region.
Etihad going to have a new terminal that opens mid 2017 if everything stays on track.
Turkish Airlines will have a new airport in 2018 if everything stays on track.
Emirates is going to be in big trouble unless they kick everyone out of DXB and move them to DWC. DXB is crowed and no relief is in sight unless you count the new concourse that they opening up but that wont help. That is a short term fix for DXB. DWC is not expanding right now.
Doha has a terminal that can handle the traffic for now but their is talks to expand it already.
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Old October 7th, 2015, 04:27 PM   #7686
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Etihad going to have a new terminal that opens mid 2017 if everything stays on track.
Turkish Airlines will have a new airport in 2018 if everything stays on track.
Emirates is going to be in big trouble unless they kick everyone out of DXB and move them to DWC. .
Kicking as many as possible over to DWC buys a years space as DWC only has a small terminal and DXB grows by that much a year.

Turkish wont have their new airport till 2019 _earliest_ as the construction possession period is to end 2018 and tests and certification will take time thereafter. It may come off the rails finance wise before completion too but they have started on the project.

That new airport, however, starts off with a single 90m pax terminal and 3 runways on day 1 and Turkish can have all that terminal for themselves at some stage in future.

Ataturk airport makes Abu Dhabi look quiet nowadays. An awful mess that place. No relief in sight there for the next 3 years.
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Old October 8th, 2015, 10:35 PM   #7687
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The problem with Turkish is they are developing so quickly they need the new airport next year to remain at their targeted rate in my opinion. They need their new Istanbul airport as soon as possible, and as some have said that will be 2018-19 at the earliest if there is no glitches. Id say it will be 2020 before it opens, there are always glitches. That airport needs to be opened almost half way through the build stage, then it needs to expand and be fully finished for 2025 and serve the 120-140m pax that I've seen that they say they can serve.

Abu Dhabi will be fine when it opens in 2015, however they need to keep the pressure on and start to create a similar terminal on the other side of the infield of the run way. Then they need to create more runways (two, ideally three) and then to finish it off another couple of modern terminals to create a airport that can support a capacity of 80-120m pax.

Dubai will have to start to look at getting DWC on the world map soon, as DXB is almost at saturation point, its almost a modern day LHR in the Middle East. If Dubai want to create a true giant airport they will overhaul DWC to these standards: 10 runways, 10 Terminals (2x A380, 2X 777, 1x Smaller Aircraft for Emirates. 1x for Sky Team, 1x for One World, 1x for Star Alliance, 1x for other carriers and other Dubai/regional carriers) and a overall pax number of up to 250m. However this will take till 2020 for the design to be passed and then take 9 to 12 years to build at a overall cost of $85b, a eye watering cost.

Doha, will eventually expand as to mane sure it can offer the capacity that it needs not to be able to be swallowed up in the grand scheme. They will need to build a new cargo terminal and Engineering base somewhere to be able to put a new terminal in where they are, they will also need two other terminals as well id envisage to keep pace, they will eventually build more runways out to sea. They could build toward 80-100m pax quite quickly.

However with all this said, can the world support 4 mega airports in the Middle East/Turkey that could have a potential 570m pax or more?

That would be a dream for the likes of Airbus and Boeing, more Super and Wide Bodies in the air. However I'm sure market forces and ego will decide more than ever.
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Old October 8th, 2015, 11:27 PM   #7688
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However with all this said, can the world support 4 mega airports in the Middle East/Turkey that could have a potential 570m pax or more?
Well back in 2000 the 4 Mega Airports had a little over 30m Pax between them. (I know its a different Doha and neither it nor Abu Dhabi is mega _quite_ yet). Etihad did not even exist.

This year the 4 will hit 200m pax as near as and they are all growing at a rate of c.5m each ( bar Abu Dhabi which will surely spurt very fast in 2017) . Only Istanbul is incapable of supporting this growth already and they are getting a very bad rep from capacity constraints now. 2020 for full operation and Ataturk cutover is a safe bet as the motorway out there and the train shuttles are not even under construction yet or even planned quite yet in the case of the trains.

Had you told anyone told you a story about the 4 lads reaching 200m pax between them and with one of them have outstripped Heathrow by 2015 ...back in the day in the year 2000, how you would have laughed. The idea that mega transit airports would develop in non mega destination cities was unheard of in 2000.

But only one of the 4 is built to expand around the A380 and what it delivers...mind you it is the very biggest of them. And the new 600 seaters deploy late this year, someone I know believes one might even show up in Dublin at christmas and he has no white beard.

Last edited by sponge_bob; October 8th, 2015 at 11:34 PM.
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Old October 9th, 2015, 05:45 PM   #7689
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Emirates A380-861 (A6-EDF)
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Old October 10th, 2015, 01:12 AM   #7690
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Emirates A380 featuring Jennifer Aniston

#firstworldproblems
shower? shower?

how many a380 can offer this service for passengers?
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Old October 10th, 2015, 02:35 AM   #7691
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shower? shower?
All of them so far. Did you not know????
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Old October 10th, 2015, 06:08 AM   #7692
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Emirates A380 featuring Jennifer Aniston



#firstworldproblems
This is so good.
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Old October 12th, 2015, 07:46 AM   #7693
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A6-EDW_MAN_101113_IMG_2072-a by Tony Woof, on Flickr
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Old October 13th, 2015, 01:44 AM   #7694
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Etihad to launch A380 N.Y.-Abu Dhabi service ahead of schedule



Harriet Baskas, Special for USA TODAY
11:18 a.m. EDT October 12, 2015


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If you’ve been anxiously waiting for Dec. 1, when Etihad Airways was scheduled to begin flying the Airbus A380 between New York’s JFK International Airport and Abu Dhabi, you’re in luck.

The national airline of the United Arab Emirates just announced that it is moving up the start date for that service to Nov. 23, replacing one of the existing Boeing 777 services with an A380 featuring The Residence by Etihad, the carrier’s three-room “suite in the sky.”

The airline said that the updated arrival date is in response to strong demand during the busy Thanksgiving holiday, as well as from those planning to attend the 2015 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, scheduled to take place Nov. 27-29.

“The overwhelmingly positive response we have received to our A380 service on our Abu Dhabi to London and Sydney routes, as well as for our upcoming launch to New York, has exceeded our expectations,” Etihad president and chief executive officer James Hogan said in a statement.

Etihad will offer daily A380 service between New York and Abu Dhabi with EY103 departing Abu Dhabi at 3:20 a.m. and arriving at 9:10 a.m. in New York. The return flight, EY102, will depart New York at 2:30 p.m. and arrive the next day in Abu Dhabi at 12:15 p.m.
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Old October 13th, 2015, 05:57 AM   #7695
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Amazing picture
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Old October 13th, 2015, 03:55 PM   #7696
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Cant wait to see Eithad's A380 in JFK and now it comes earlier than planned.
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Old October 14th, 2015, 05:15 AM   #7697
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Airbus A380-861 A6-APE Etihad Airways | Hamburg Fuhlsbüttel HAM/EDDH by Horatiu G, on Flickr



LHR by Luca Rosean, on Flickr



A6-APD Etihad Airways Airbus A380 flying over Essex by EP Dave, on Flickr
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Old October 14th, 2015, 03:40 PM   #7698
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CDG | Thai Airways | Airbus 380-841 | HS-TUB by Morten Hansen Aviation photography, on Flickr



CDG | Thai Airways | Airbus 380-841 | HS-TUB by Morten Hansen Aviation photography, on Flickr



THAI AIRWAYS AIRBUS A 380/8 SLOW CLIMB OFF 27R LHR by stormer43, on Flickr
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Old October 17th, 2015, 10:01 AM   #7699
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A6-EDH Emirates Airbus A380-861 by Paul Robbins, on Flickr



A7-APB Qatar Airways Airbus A380-861 at LHR by Paul Robbins, on Flickr
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Old October 22nd, 2015, 08:01 AM   #7700
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Hello Airbus A380 huge fan ... Also does the company, since birth I love Airbus ... Im hoping A380 would come to RPVM (Mactan-Cebu International Airport) ...
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