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Old December 15th, 2015, 02:48 PM   #7821
Tom_Green
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If the 777-9X reaches the size limit for 2 engines planes the demand for 4 engines planes will rise in the future. There will be no competition. If you need two 777 to transport as many people as an A380-9 than you will save money by using the bigger plane.

But i think the demand for such planes will only start after 2030. At that time they could also replace the 747-8 and the old A380
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Old December 15th, 2015, 08:24 PM   #7822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Green View Post
If the 777-9X reaches the size limit for 2 engines planes the demand for 4 engines planes will rise in the future. There will be no competition. If you need two 777 to transport as many people as an A380-9 than you will save money by using the bigger plane.
There are a lot of assumptions here.

First, the engine makers know how to produce engines with 135K to 140K lbs of thrust (using geared fans), so the 777-9X (with 105K lbs thrust) is certainly not the upper limit for two-engine aircraft. For an example that may be near the (present) upper limit for a twin-engine design, see http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...ad.main/363103

Second, regardless of the operating cost, carrying the same number of passengers on two mid-size airliners will generate more revenue than carrying the same number of passengers on one very large airliner, for three reasons: 1) with two flights, the scheduling works for more passengers (especially business passengers), 2) many passengers (especially business passengers) will choose the airline with more flights because they are more likely to be accommodated promptly in the event of a cancellation, and 3) most large companies have rules against too many members of the same team traveling together on the same flight (too much risk).

Third, you seem to be assuming that any A380-900 will be a simple stretch and re-engine using the Trent XWB. I don't believe Airbus will go that route. I believe that if Airbus will update the A380, that they will do something very much like what Boeing are doing with the 777. The biggest problem with the A380 is the very heavy, metal wing with a very short aspect ratio and a wing area designed for the much higher MTOW of the formerly planned freighter. If Airbus want to make the A380 competitive, they need to design and build an all-new CFRP wing with a slightly smaller wing area and increase the aspect ratio to contemporary standards by adding folding wingtips. Folded, the wingspan needs to be under 80 meters to fit within gate and taxiway constraints. Assuming no control surfaces on the folding wingtip (i.e. keeping it simple, as Boeing are doing), unfolded wingspan would be about 90 meters. That improvement in aerodynamic efficiency and reduction in weight, combined with more efficient engines means that an A380neo would not need to carry as much fuel, resulting in a further reduction in weight, hence less thrust is needed. As the thrust reduction from the 777-300ER to the 777-9X is 115K lbs to 105K lbs, let's similarly assume a reduction for the A380 of roughly about 10%, so roughly from about 80K lbs to roughly about 72K lbs. That means Airbus could use the smaller, lighter, newer, more efficient Trent 7000 rather than the larger, heavier, older, relatively less efficient Trent XWB. A modest stretch might or might not be appropriate at the same time, depending on the range that could be achieve with Trent 7000s and a modern wing. Boeing would have to either concede that section of the market to Airbus or spend a fortune to develop a twin nearly as large as the A380.
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Old December 16th, 2015, 03:44 AM   #7823
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Airbus Mulls A380 Revamp `In Cold Blood' as Emirates Pushes Case

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...es-pushes-case
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Old December 16th, 2015, 04:44 AM   #7824
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interesting graphic, thank you
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Old December 16th, 2015, 07:39 AM   #7825
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It's actually been two years since the last solid order. Amedeo, a leasing company, speculatively ordered 20 in 2014, contingent on being able to find airlines that want to lease them from Amedeo. So far, no bites.

Without the Amedeo order, which seems to be among the several orders likely to be cancelled, the net orders for 2014 would have been -6. So far, for 2015, the net orders stand at -1. What is worse, this year's cancellation was built several years ago and has been sitting around. It doesn't even have the re-lofted wing now in production. It's difficult to imagine who might buy it.
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Old December 16th, 2015, 09:21 AM   #7826
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Both of the special Singapore Airlines "SG50" A380 aircraft in one frame
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Old December 16th, 2015, 09:51 AM   #7827
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Asiana Airlines HL7635 by Howard Pulling, on Flickr



Asiana Airlines HL7635 by Howard Pulling, on Flickr
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Old December 16th, 2015, 10:44 AM   #7828
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Old December 16th, 2015, 11:00 AM   #7829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
There are a lot of assumptions here.

First, the engine makers know how to produce engines with 135K to 140K lbs of thrust (using geared fans), so the 777-9X (with 105K lbs thrust) is certainly not the upper limit for two-engine aircraft. For an example that may be near the (present) upper limit for a twin-engine design, see http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...ad.main/363103
Of course they can build more and more powerful engines, but as noise around airports is becoming more and more relevant i doubt they will do that. I know some people living close to an airport and they complain about the noise of the 777-300 ER.
Bigger more powerful engines are the wrong way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
Second, regardless of the operating cost, carrying the same number of passengers on two mid-size airliners will generate more revenue than carrying the same number of passengers on one very large airliner, for three reasons: 1) with two flights, the scheduling works for more passengers (especially business passengers), 2) many passengers (especially business passengers) will choose the airline with more flights because they are more likely to be accommodated promptly in the event of a cancellation, and 3) most large companies have rules against too many members of the same team traveling together on the same flight (too much risk).
But you need just 2 pilots and not 4. On the ground you also need less people.
Also more and more airports stop operating at night so the amount of slots will be reduced. I think that the amount of slots forced Emirates to buy that many A380.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
Third, you seem to be assuming that any A380-900 will be a simple stretch and re-engine using the Trent XWB. I don't believe Airbus will go that route. I believe that if Airbus will update the A380, that they will do something very much like what Boeing are doing with the 777. The biggest problem with the A380 is the very heavy, metal wing with a very short aspect ratio and a wing area designed for the much higher MTOW of the formerly planned freighter. If Airbus want to make the A380 competitive, they need to design and build an all-new CFRP wing with a slightly smaller wing area and increase the aspect ratio to contemporary standards by adding folding wingtips. Folded, the wingspan needs to be under 80 meters to fit within gate and taxiway constraints. Assuming no control surfaces on the folding wingtip (i.e. keeping it simple, as Boeing are doing), unfolded wingspan would be about 90 meters. That improvement in aerodynamic efficiency and reduction in weight, combined with more efficient engines means that an A380neo would not need to carry as much fuel, resulting in a further reduction in weight, hence less thrust is needed. As the thrust reduction from the 777-300ER to the 777-9X is 115K lbs to 105K lbs, let's similarly assume a reduction for the A380 of roughly about 10%, so roughly from about 80K lbs to roughly about 72K lbs. That means Airbus could use the smaller, lighter, newer, more efficient Trent 7000 rather than the larger, heavier, older, relatively less efficient Trent XWB. A modest stretch might or might not be appropriate at the same time, depending on the range that could be achieve with Trent 7000s and a modern wing. Boeing would have to either concede that section of the market to Airbus or spend a fortune to develop a twin nearly as large as the A380.
The wings of the A380 are huge. I think a stretch to 80m and new smaller more efficient engines will help the A380. Also that will not cost that much. But i am not an expert for that. Maybe they will do what you have said with the wings.
Maybe it will be too expensive and they will just do what i said.

I think the 777-9X is the size limit of 2 engines planes. The Ecoliner may be possible but i said why i doubt it.

What i also think is that right now the demand is not here (A380-9).
The 777 and A350 will replace the 747-400 and A340 planes in the coming years. But in 10 to 15 years the airlines will replace the A380 and 747-8. The demand for real big planes will come again. And it will be a 4 engines plane.
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Old December 16th, 2015, 11:26 AM   #7830
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Well for EK the A380 is a smashing success. There are some airports around the world where they have up to five multiple SJ flight a day for the business traveler to choose from, and they are all full. Actually London has 8 A380 flights per day.

Let's not forget that EK is also the largest operator of the 77W, and the largest by far future customer for the 777X program.

An A350 or 787 order is around the corner, and they will most likely be the biggest operator of one of those types to.

In the end the A380 is a perfect wide body match for EK, and the rest of it's two engine air frames.
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Old December 17th, 2015, 03:49 AM   #7831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Green View Post
Of course they can build more and more powerful engines, but as noise around airports is becoming more and more relevant i doubt they will do that. I know some people living close to an airport and they complain about the noise of the 777-300 ER.
Bigger more powerful engines are the wrong way.
You seem to be assuming that two large engines produce more noise than four smaller engines. Historically, that has not been the case so far.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Green View Post
But you need just 2 pilots and not 4. On the ground you also need less people.
That's a good point, but the number of pilots is just one component of the overall cost/revenue calculation the airlines make when they're evaluating aircraft. That calculation has been favoring the 787/A350/777X over the 747-8I and A380.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Green View Post
Also more and more airports stop operating at night so the amount of slots will be reduced. I think that the amount of slots forced Emirates to buy that many A380.
Which airports used to operate at night but don't anymore? There are only a handful of slot-constrained airports in the world. As commercial aircraft continue to become quieter, the restrictions on operating at night seem likely to be relaxed, if anything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Green View Post
I think the 777-9X is the size limit of 2 engines planes. The Ecoliner may be possible but i said why i doubt it.
Technically, there is no dispute. It is technically possible to build an Ecoliner-sized twin. Whether or not there is a business case for developing a new aircraft that large is very much in dispute. Most of the opinion is that there is not a justifiable business case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Green View Post
What i also think is that right now the demand is not here (A380-9).
The 777 and A350 will replace the 747-400 and A340 planes in the coming years. But in 10 to 15 years the airlines will replace the A380 and 747-8. The demand for real big planes will come again. And it will be a 4 engines plane.
Most of the 747s have been replaced by A340s and 777s, as you mention. It looks like most of the very few 747-8Is and A380s will be replaced by A350s and 777-9s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
Well for EK the A380 is a smashing success. There are some airports around the world where they have up to five multiple SJ flight a day for the business traveler to choose from, and they are all full. Actually London has 8 A380 flights per day.
EK have operated the A380 successfully, but "smashing" is an exaggeration. SQ and a few others have also been successful. About half the A380 operators are struggling to break even with them and will not take those remaining on order. MH and TG are actively trying to sell theirs, but there are no buyers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
Let's not forget that EK is also the largest operator of the 77W, and the largest by far future customer for the 777X program.
Yes. Either Airbus will offer a much improved A380 or EK will start replacing A380s with 777-9s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
An A350 or 787 order is around the corner, and they will most likely be the biggest operator of one of those types to.
Yes, EK still have many smaller wide-bodies to replace. I would not rule out the possibility that EK might choose the A330neo rather than the 787 or A350, though my expectation is that EK will more likely choose the A350.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
In the end the A380 is a perfect wide body match for EK, and the rest of it's two engine air frames.
Not at all. If EK thought the A380 were perfect for them, they would not be trying to get Airbus to replace the wings and engines.
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Old December 17th, 2015, 04:37 AM   #7832
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post

Which airports used to operate at night but don't anymore? There are only a handful of slot-constrained airports in the world. As commercial aircraft continue to become quieter, the restrictions on operating at night seem likely to be relaxed, if anything.
I highly doubt that. At the same time, people become increasingly noise conscious and aware of their rights and possibilities. IMO, more and more airports will restrict their night operations.

What I am saying, I love the A380 and usually book my flight to fly with her. Hard to go back to 777.
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Old December 18th, 2015, 05:27 AM   #7833
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Emirates has announced it's opening three new A380 routes next year:

Birmingham, UK

Prague, Czech Republic

Taipei, Taiwan (ROC)

http://www.thenational.ae/business/a...outes-for-2016
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Old December 18th, 2015, 07:51 AM   #7834
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Emirates Airbus A380 by Jorge Meneses, on Flickr



Night Emirates A380 by Jorge Meneses, on Flickr
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Old December 18th, 2015, 02:42 PM   #7835
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Emirates is ending A380 service to Houston IAH next year in July. Korean Air started daily service from ICN to BKK on A380 yesterday.
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Old December 21st, 2015, 07:12 PM   #7836
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Airbus A380-861


http://spotters.net.ua/file/?id=106702&size=large


http://spotters.net.ua/file/?id=106472&size=large


http://spotters.net.ua/file/?id=106823&size=large
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Old December 22nd, 2015, 12:17 AM   #7837
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Business class looks so tacky. Too much gold.
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Old December 22nd, 2015, 08:43 AM   #7838
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Bonus: First Сlass


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Old December 22nd, 2015, 08:47 AM   #7839
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A380-841


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Old December 22nd, 2015, 11:02 AM   #7840
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Boeing787-8 Dreamliner | HS-TQF | Thai Airways International by Pattharapong Sittirach, on Flickr
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