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Old January 1st, 2016, 09:17 PM   #7861
siamu maharaj
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Wouldn't be very cost-effective to have only 3 planes of a type.
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Old January 1st, 2016, 09:24 PM   #7862
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It will only be officially official when Airbus or ANA announce it, we'll see it when they do.
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Old January 2nd, 2016, 08:11 AM   #7863
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Originally Posted by higannn View Post
Honolulu can't even accommodate an A380 service. Sure its runways and taxiways can accommodate the A380, their boarding gates doesn't seem to be able to. Their expansion only covers single level boarding gates, which I think will take a long time to board and disembark the 500+ passengers, or more in high density configuration.
According to Bloomberg and Nikkei's sources, ANA will receive its A380s in 2018. That's enough time for installing some A380-capable jet bridges in Honolulu.
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Old January 2nd, 2016, 09:51 AM   #7864
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Well I think we can say it looks official that ANA are purchasing A380's.

Airbus Wins All Nippon as Customer for A380 Superjumbos

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...80-superjumbos
Bloomberg quoted two unidentified sources, who are said to be "familiar with" the deal but who apparently don't work for either ANA or Airbus (because that much would have been said if they did). ANA said they are looking at their options and Airbus had no comment. This is still rumor, not news. Certainly not official. Over the years, there have been dozens of similar stories about varies airlines about to buy A380s that never materialized. I know Addison Schonland -- a very smart guy -- and he sounds unusually skeptical.
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Old January 2nd, 2016, 03:36 PM   #7865
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If the purchase by ANA is finalized, the Airbus can breathe sigh of relief after a long drought of order.
Although I believe that ANA, if they buy it, may take the airframes originally destined for Skymark.
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Old January 2nd, 2016, 06:06 PM   #7866
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Although I believe that ANA, if they buy it, may take the airframes originally destined for Skymark.
Course they will. This deal is part of the overall Skymark bankruptcy procedure...if indeed it is real news as mcarling said.
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Old January 2nd, 2016, 07:53 PM   #7867
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If the purchase by ANA is finalized, the Airbus can breathe sigh of relief after a long drought of order.
How so? ANA rescuing 3 of the 6 orders that their (partially owned) bankrupt subsidiary cancelled would not indicate a general renewal of interest among the airlines. Airbus are facing the decision to either wrap up production or invest several billion euro into a program that has already lost $25-30 billion. Ten years ago, when european governments owned a bigger share of Airbus, I would have guessed that the additional money would be poured in to save face. Now, with Airbus mainly in the hands of private investors, I think the sentiment is to not squander any more money on this.

The best argument in favor of developing a new wing for the A380 is that Boeing would not have a good response: Boeing will not revise the 777 again right after the 777-9X, Boeing will never again revise the 747, and an all-new airliner substantially larger than the 777-9X would cost about $20 billion and there is no evidence that they could profitably sell 1000 to 2000 airliners that large (which would be needed to generate a competitive RoI on the investment over 20 years).

For roughly about 5 billion euro, Airbus could develop an all-new CFRP wing for the A380 with a wingspan under 80 meters folded and about 90 meters unfolded. It would have substantially lower CASM than the 777-9X or 747-8. No doubt Airbus could sell 200 of them. But could they sell the approximately 400 or so needed to justify the investment? Dubious.
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Old January 2nd, 2016, 09:45 PM   #7868
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It would mostly be a symbolic relief for the A380 program. The last real order was placed in December 2013 (Emirates of course, I'm not counting the Amedeo order as serious), and the last new airline ordering the A380 who will actually take delivery was back in January 2011 (Asiana).

It will be some relief, but it won't mean that Airbus doesn't have to worry about the future of the A380 anymore. For that they will need to firm up the larger orders they were talking about 2 months ago at the sidelines of the Dubai Airshow. As Airbus always has some last minute surprises when they announce their yearly order total in 2nd week of January it will be more interesting if it will include an different A380 order this time (I don't think the ANA order, if it's going to happen, will only be firmed up later this year).
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 01:13 AM   #7869
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How so? ANA rescuing 3 of the 6 orders that their (partially owned) bankrupt subsidiary cancelled would not indicate a general renewal of interest among the airlines.
Strictly speaking the 2 already built and one other.

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Airbus are facing the decision to either wrap up production or invest several billion euro into a program that has already lost $25-30 billion. Ten years ago, when european governments owned a bigger share of Airbus, I would have guessed that the additional money would be poured in to save face. Now, with Airbus mainly in the hands of private investors, I think the sentiment is to not squander any more money on this.
And the delivery date quoted in the Nikkei article ( 2018) is when they will have an empty line to rework the 2 Skymark frames. I agree with you on your analysis overall and I think 2018 is when the A380 line will probably shut down. All Airbus are looking at now is outlasting the 747 line by a quarter or 3 and that is as much face as will be saved.

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The best argument in favor of developing a new wing for the A380 is that Boeing would not have a good response: Boeing will not revise the 777 again right after the 777-9X

For roughly about 5 billion euro, Airbus could develop an all-new CFRP wing for the A380 with a wingspan under 80 meters folded and about 90 meters unfolded. It would have substantially lower CASM than the 777-9X or 747-8. No doubt Airbus could sell 200 of them. But could they sell the approximately 400 or so needed to justify the investment? Dubious.
There is of course a potential freighter or half cab version of that neo that might get traction in the market too. The current A380 carries remarkably little freight cargo compared to the current 777.
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 03:10 AM   #7870
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I think 2018 is when the A380 line will probably shut down.
Airbus might be able to stretch production out to 2019 or 2020, but that would result in even greater losses. 2016 might be the year that Airbus announce that production will end if there will be no more orders by a fixed future date.

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There is of course a potential freighter or half cab version of that neo that might get traction in the market too.
Without an A380neo, there is no realistic chance of resuscitating the A380F. Because of stricter safety rules now in effect, there won't ever be any more combis (cargo and passengers on the same deck).
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 05:27 AM   #7871
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It is rumored that ANA got control of Skymark after reaching to an agreement with Airbus that Delta was not willing to match (Airbus was one of Skymark's largest creditors).

Delta is a big Airbus customer and Skyteam lacks a Japanese member, while ANA has an all-Boeing fleet, so the same rumors claim that the agreement was for ANA to buy Skymark's A380s (4 orders + 2 options), something that MD-80 loving Delta would not agree to.

Now it seems ANA may take delivery of 3 A380s instead of 4, so that is hardly good news.

In absence of an A380neo, the 2018 delivery date makes further orders from ANA unlikely even if they get to like the A380 given that the program would have a hard time surviving pass 2020.

A big order from Delta to replace their 747s could have saved the A380, but if Delta ever gets A380s they will most likely be second-handed (side note, the highlight from Delta's 3Q financial report was: We got an used 777 for only $ 7 million, that's creating value for the investors).
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 07:31 AM   #7872
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SIA and EK A380s will start coming off lease around 2020. If any airline REALLY wants A380s, it'll get them for cheap then.
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 03:11 PM   #7873
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SIA and EK A380s will start coming off lease around 2020. If any airline REALLY wants A380s, it'll get them for cheap then.
2017 for the first SIA I think.
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 05:47 PM   #7874
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Delta is a big Airbus customer and Skyteam lacks a Japanese member, while ANA has an all-Boeing fleet, so the same rumors claim that the agreement was for ANA to buy Skymark's A380s (4 orders + 2 options), something that MD-80 loving Delta would not agree to.
Are you a Boeing fanboy?
What about the A320, which ANA is operating?
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 07:52 PM   #7875
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Are you a Boeing fanboy?
What about the A320, which ANA is operating?
They also had A321's, not sure if they still operate the air frame.
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 08:36 PM   #7876
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SQ's first A380 comes off lease in 2017. By 2020, there will be dozens of older, heavier, less aerodynamic A380s in the hands of the leasing companies. Even today, MH and TG are trying to dump their A380s, but there are no buyers.
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 09:05 PM   #7877
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. Even today, MH and TG are trying to dump their A380s, but there are no buyers.
ADD the Amadeo order and Virgin and we are near enough 40 frames needing a new home before any leases expire.

A prolonged future spell of low Avgas prices might make someone jump at a few if them but i would not bet on that event me. I'd say airlines will rebuild balance books with the savings and/or emulate Delta scavenging in the old 777 market instead.
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 10:37 PM   #7878
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The Amedeo and Virgin orders will never be built, so they won't need to find new homes at all.
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 11:12 PM   #7879
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The Amedeo and Virgin orders will never be built, so they won't need to find new homes at all.
Theres a forecast. They'd need to order quite the few A350s and A330s to get out of those deals though.
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Old January 3rd, 2016, 11:48 PM   #7880
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Well, it's widely known that Virgin will never take those A380s that are still on order. The pre-payments they made for this order they placed in 2001 (that's already 15 years ago) are already used for their A330 order in 2009. They can surely step away from the order without any penalties. If Airbus does make them pay it will mean that Virgin will stop being an Airbus customer for good and piss off Delta as well. Even though it's still very likely that Virgin will go all Boeing, maybe even with an 787 only fleet, Airbus still has a chance that Virgin will order the A350 to replace the 747s and the A340-600s. Which then will be booked as a conversion, if the replacement order won't come they will just book it as a cancellation at some point. Maybe only when the program is terminated or when the A380-800ceo sales will terminated after it will be replaced by a neo variant.

Amedeo is different story. If they don't find customers for their A380s nobody will care if the order is cancelled. They will probably have to pay penalties, but that's just a problem for the couple of investors of their A380 funds. There won't be any different orders, these anonymous investors will just have to take their losses. As they will also have to do eventually when the current A380s from Emirates that are financed through the Amedeo funds end up being stored in dessert for years, or even going to the scrappers straight away after they come off lease. For Airbus it will mean some loss of face, but not that much as this order always was questionable, just like Amedeo as a company.
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