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Old January 9th, 2016, 08:09 PM   #7901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siamu maharaj View Post
No, that is not a fact by any stretch. It'll become a fact when the plane is launched and they start working on it in earnest and start seeking orders.

Just saying they will do something in 5 years is as far from a "fact" as you can get.
OK then let's word this a differently, it's fact that they haven't canceled the project either.
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Old January 9th, 2016, 09:07 PM   #7902
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
OK then let's word this a differently, it's fact that they haven't canceled the project either.
Guess you could say that. Another thing that may come into play is fuel prices. If this gamble by Saudia means that oil prices remain depressed (<$60) for a long time, Airbus would likely get a smaller premium on an already niche plane because the fuel savings will be lower.
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Old January 10th, 2016, 05:08 AM   #7903
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Air France A380-861 by Rami Khanna-Prade, on Flickr



Emirates - Airbus A380-800 - A6-EOA - ZRH by Mike Wyss, on Flickr



A6-EOE / 2014 / Emirates Airbus A380-861 / CYYZ by Nicoli OZ Mathews, on Flickr
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Old January 10th, 2016, 05:44 AM   #7904
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Emirates | Airbus A380 at Chhatrapati Shivaji Int'l Airport,Mumbai operating as EK500/501 !

Spotted By : Atharva Pokharkar
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Old January 10th, 2016, 11:03 AM   #7905
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slartibartfas View Post
Looking at single year orders in a market which naturally consists of low order numbers (because the value of each piece is so high) and has a track record of high fluctuations, is either sloppy or dishonest.
Look at any other year in the last ten and the ratio of VLAs to wide-bodies and the ratio of wide-bodies to single-aisles is roughly similar. VLAs are a tiny niche that cost Airbus and Boeing billions in losses (a few billion in the case of the 747-8 and dozens of billions in the case of the A380).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slartibartfas View Post
If you look at 3 year averages of A380 sales, you can't see a significant negative tendency in A380 at all. That doesn't mean that it could not flatten off but so far the evidence for something like that is not there:

3-average orders per year:
2004-2006: 14.7
2007-2009: 15.3
2010-2012: 20.0
2013-2015: 18.3
Quite the contrary. All of your data above are negative. The A380 production supply chain was sized for a production rate of 45 per year. According to Airbus, they need to build 30+ to make any money at all (not even a reasonable RoI) and with sales averaging below 20 per year, that's obviously impossible. The A380 program is a gusher of red ink.
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Old January 10th, 2016, 02:08 PM   #7906
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
OK then let's word this a differently, it's fact that they haven't canceled the project either.
We've seen what happened with the stock prices in December 2014 when the Airbus Group CFO said that the cancellation of the A380 program was an option.

Airbus has become very sensitive about anything they say about the A380. Saying that they will go ahead with the A380neo, but only after 2020, is just a positive way to say that they are not going to make a decision right now. Even with the main customer screaming out loud that they will order hundreds of A380s if the neo is happening.
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Old January 10th, 2016, 04:06 PM   #7907
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
Look at any other year in the last ten and the ratio of VLAs to wide-bodies and the ratio of wide-bodies to single-aisles is roughly similar. VLAs are a tiny niche that cost Airbus and Boeing billions in losses (a few billion in the case of the 747-8 and dozens of billions in the case of the A380).



Quite the contrary. All of your data above are negative. The A380 production supply chain was sized for a production rate of 45 per year. According to Airbus, they need to build 30+ to make any money at all (not even a reasonable RoI) and with sales averaging below 20 per year, that's obviously impossible. The A380 program is a gusher of red ink.
You were taking the zero orders from a single year, which isn't much of an argument at all and based sweeping assumption on it. If you have a case, why are you arguing with sloppy numbers like these? VLAs are of course a niche, no one questioned that, the question is if it was a mistake to go into that niche or not.

Could you please supply us with a source for this "30+" per year for making any money at all?
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Old January 10th, 2016, 06:09 PM   #7908
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The number of 30 deliveries is widely known for several years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ai...99S19T20131029

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-s-sales-drive

And directly from Airbus (on page 12):

https://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&rct=j...LzEj0Q&cad=rja

They expected to go break even on the production costs this year, at the same time expecting 30 deliveries.

Airbus didn't reach the 30 deliveries target in 2015 though, they only delivered 27. That makes it still unclear if Airbus is still losing money with every delivery of the A380 or not. And when they do start to make money it will still take forever to recoup all the investments, which will probably never happen as the backlog is too small.

And if they go ahead with the neo it will again mean more investments. And that's the big issue, how more money are the investors in Airbus willing to put into the A380 knowing that it will never pay itself back. While on the other hand there are the A320 and A330 programs that are making a serious profit, with the A350 program also promising future profits.
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Old January 10th, 2016, 08:41 PM   #7909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
The number of 30 deliveries is widely known for several years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ai...99S19T20131029

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-s-sales-drive

And directly from Airbus (on page 12):

https://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&rct=j...LzEj0Q&cad=rja

They expected to go break even on the production costs this year, at the same time expecting 30 deliveries.

Airbus didn't reach the 30 deliveries target in 2015 though, they only delivered 27. That makes it still unclear if Airbus is still losing money with every delivery of the A380 or not. And when they do start to make money it will still take forever to recoup all the investments, which will probably never happen as the backlog is too small.

And if they go ahead with the neo it will again mean more investments. And that's the big issue, how more money are the investors in Airbus willing to put into the A380 knowing that it will never pay itself back. While on the other hand there are the A320 and A330 programs that are making a serious profit, with the A350 program also promising future profits.
Yeah. Instead of NEO, the resources could be put on the A320 replacement that may come sometime in 2025-2030.
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Old January 11th, 2016, 02:00 AM   #7910
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siamu maharaj View Post
Yeah. Instead of NEO, the resources could be put on the A320 replacement that may come sometime in 2025-2030.
I forgot all about the A320neo+neo mainly seeing as nobody announced it yet.
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Old January 11th, 2016, 02:40 AM   #7911
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slartibartfas View Post
VLAs are of course a niche, no one questioned that, the question is if it was a mistake to go into that niche or not.
Losses exceeding $25 billion are the clearest possible answer to that question.
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Old January 11th, 2016, 02:49 AM   #7912
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@ momo

So Airbus calculated with 30 per year in order to go break even this year. That is not the same as the claim that Airbus can not get to a break even with lower delivery numbers (at a later point as expected).
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Last edited by Slartibartfas; January 11th, 2016 at 02:57 AM.
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Old January 11th, 2016, 03:08 AM   #7913
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slartibartfas View Post
So Airbus calculated with 30 per year in order to go break even this year. That is not the same as the claim that Airbus can not get to a break even with lower delivery numbers (at a later point as expected).
For about the last ten years, 30 per year has been Airbus' number for stopping the losses. It's been about eight years since Airbus stopped talking about any possibility of someday covering the losses and making any profit and it's been even longer since Airbus stopped talking about RoI (return on investment). It's now $25 to $30 billion down the toilet with no realistic possibility of getting any of it back. And that number doesn't count additional billions lost by Airbus' suppliers, none of whom have been able to ramp up to a profitable production rate.
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Old January 11th, 2016, 06:39 AM   #7914
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Here's something from October 2015 in San Francisco:

Air France A380-800 (reg. F-HPJF) on a heavy take off as it starts its journey to Paris-Charles de Gaulle


IMG_6438 by Anthony Nachor, on Flickr
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Old January 11th, 2016, 03:03 PM   #7915
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PC140121 by hatch, on Flickr



Korean Air HL7614 cb 1-9654 by Andreas Muhl, on Flickr



Emirates A6-EDW 10-1-2016 by Enda Burke Photography, on Flickr
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Old January 11th, 2016, 05:52 PM   #7916
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The big bird *-*
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Old January 11th, 2016, 10:38 PM   #7917
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Tomorrow morning 10:30 CET Airbus will hold it's Annual Press Conference where they will present yearly order total for 2015.

https://twitter.com/Airbus/status/686495741020368897


It's going to be interesting to see if there will be any news on the A380.
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Old January 12th, 2016, 11:49 AM   #7918
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Airbus are claiming 3 A380 sales to an undisclosed customer.
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Old January 12th, 2016, 11:56 AM   #7919
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Indeed, 3 orders for an undisclosed customer. This cannot be anyone else the ANA.

all orders can be found here:

http://www.airbus.com/company/market/orders-deliveries/


The net order total for 2015 is 2.
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Old January 12th, 2016, 02:40 PM   #7920
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Quote:
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Lots of parking lots available for that A380.
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