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Old June 16th, 2016, 02:31 AM   #8201
bnk
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http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/07/


Airbus looks to fit more passengers on to the A380

David Reid | @cnbcdavy
Tuesday, 7 Jun 2016 | 4:39 AM ET




The world's largest passenger plane, the Airbus A380, is offering to reconfigure its economy cabin layout to squeeze in more passengers.

Tweaks to the superjumbo design would create an 11th seat to some rows, with 5 people instead of 4 sat in the middle section.

Airbus says the design will mean economy, or coach, can be split in to three different pricing sections.

...



A new A380 seating configuration will create a middle seat in the middle row


Further options are being looked at to increase the seating capacity of the A380 including reducing the stairs and removing some sidewall stowage on the upper deck.

Airbus said any refreshed layout would be for an airline to determine rather than for Airbus to impose.

...

Waning interest


The planemaker may slow output to an assembly rate of the A380 to 1.7 aircraft a month from 2017, according to a Reuters report published in April.

Part of the original attraction of the huge plane, which can seat over 800 passengers, was its cost-per-seat mile (CASM).

But the firm has been struggling to maintain interest in the superjumbo as smaller, twin-engine planes are now able to cope with longer-haul flights.

This has meant the CASM advantage of the A380 has eroded.


Emirates is by far the largest operator of the A380 and has called on Airbus to do a better job of marketing the plane to rivals.

And UBS aviation analyst Charles Armitage told CNBC in November that the days of the A380 could be numbered.

"We believe that Airbus needs to make a decision soon – either re-establish the cost per seat advantage of the A380 (probably through a neo version, perhaps with a small stretch), or risk closing the line," he said.
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Old June 16th, 2016, 02:51 AM   #8202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bnk View Post
And UBS aviation analyst Charles Armitage told CNBC in November that the days of the A380 could be numbered.

"We believe that Airbus needs to make a decision soon – either re-establish the cost per seat advantage of the A380 (probably through a neo version, perhaps with a small stretch), or risk closing the line," he said.
Well they gotta tell their suppliers well in advance so if there are NOW enough orders to keep the line going to early 2020 or so then they must decide by early 2018 (duly adjusted forward a year for every 20 firm orders they get between now and early 2018).

They can muddle along in an orderless netherworld for another year anyway.
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Old June 16th, 2016, 08:23 AM   #8203
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Right now the A380 is competitive in costs per seat with the B777, by 2020 the situation will change because the B777-8/9 will have engines with 2015 technology.

If the A380NEO is ever launched I expect that only one engine supplier will be interested in supplying the engines, most likely Rolls Royce (the VLA market is small and having 2 suppliers will add to development costs).

If Airbus were to make available the A380NEO by the early 2020s then RR could only supply engines based on the Trent 7000 (A330NEO) or maybe on an early Trent Advance and so they will be around 10% more efficient than the Trent 700 (the current A330 engine, I'm yet to find numbers comparing the new RR engines with the current A380 engines so I'm assuming that the Trent 700 and 900 are similar in this aspect).

For comparison the GE9X (B777-8/9) is reportedly around 10% more efficient than the GE90 (B777-2/3).

In a possible scenario an A380NEO (Entry Into Service 2020-ish) may remain competitive with the B777-8/9, but comparable levels of competitiveness have not translated into many sales.

So I think that if the A380NEO is ever launched Airbus would want the best engines it can get to crush the B777 in costs per seat and that means that EIS depends on how fast can RR develop its Trent Advance (20% more efficient than Trent 700) or Trent Ultrafan (25% more efficient than Trent 700) engines.

Airbus could be aiming for an A380NEO with an EIS 2025-ish, but that would mean that if the program is launched this year the NEO will be in development for almost 10 years (something that shareholders would not want to hear). RR will remain developing its engines even if right now it is not known which specific planes are going to use them.

I think that the A380NEO program could be launched as late as 2020 for entry into service around 2025. If orders are no forthcoming for keeping the A380 into production until 2025 then Airbus may even temporarily transition some A380 facilities to the production of A330/A350s, but only if it is able to secure 100s of firm orders for an 2025-ish A380NEO.
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Old June 17th, 2016, 12:41 AM   #8204
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I would think that if an A380neo did get the green light they'd probably also change the wing to add another 1-2% in fuel efficiency.

Also, couldn't they increase the amount of composites in the fuselage to reduce weight? IIRC, the A380 is only 20% composites while the A350 is slightly over 50%. Even it's just another 1% saving that's quite big the airline industry, especially if fuel prices are back around the $100/barrel level (which they likely will be in the next decade)
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Old June 17th, 2016, 03:33 AM   #8205
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I imagine fuselage and wing changes would be quite expensive as they change the kinematics of the aircraft and the flight control software would need to be re-programmed and tested. Might be lucky to get the A350-style blended hockey stick wingtips and some modifications (787-style serrated edges?) on the NEO
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Old June 17th, 2016, 04:04 AM   #8206
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Far as I remember Mcarling analysed all the potential A380 neo features worth having ( mainly wing and engine) a few months back in this thread and also the cost of certifying all the above and figured it would cost €5bn as a standalone project. Maybe the €5bn came from elsewhere but Mcarling did a very very good analysis of what the feature set would be.

Therefore breakeven (with a €30m contribution to the development costs per frame) would be around 200 orders and that with not a sausage available to pay off the original $25bn costs which are now deemed lost, lets face it.

Against the original $25bn cost the A350 may well have come in cheaper given what was learnt and some of that $25bn might come back from the A350 programme in future. But even that is highly moot and will never cover all the A380 losses.

I would think that at least 200 firm preorders from proper airlines with a good financial track history will be required to kick off an A380 neo all the same. Just saying. Who might they be then. ???
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Old June 17th, 2016, 06:20 PM   #8207
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So where will 2nd hand A380s go? A guess is LCCs in Asia on medium haul routes : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...at-40-discount
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Old June 17th, 2016, 06:33 PM   #8208
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Won't they need a big midlife refit to seriously increase the seat numbers , here are your options (again) most are too low with the high seat count frames being the newest ones delivered to Emirates.

I reckon BA/IAG might get the early ( 496 seat) A380s from Singapore or else the Thai or Malaysian frames. But BA/IAG can outfit them for 3 classes as now where an LCC in Asia will have max 2 classes and will need 600 or so seats, if not more.



I reckon $20m each for a full cabin refit and removing showers etc and rewiring them for 600 seats plus. That's one years rental. BA/IAG might do a little work, keep most of the features and refit for $5m only...same possibly with Turkish who might dip into the s/h market. But no LCC will want showers and bars and grand staircases.
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Old June 19th, 2016, 10:53 PM   #8209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
Why would Airbus ax the A380 when they know Emirates will, and need at least 200 air frames.
We don't know that EK will order 200 frames. That's just speculation, not knowledge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
Some airlines don't want three 777's or A350's to replace two A380's on certain routes. For instance EK have six slots at Heathrow with a seventh coming up, and they are all fully loaded A380's, they would reduce capacity with six 777-9's in the future because of slot restraints.
Right, but that's only 20 to 30 frames. More than enough A380s have already been built to satisfy that particular sort of demand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by noir-dresses View Post
I think the NEO would also attract Qatar, Qantas, Singapore, Turkish, Air France, BA, Lufthansa, Korean, and a lot more to come. At least 400 NEO's would be sold in the future when they launch it over time.
If Airbus believed that, they would already have launched an A380neo.[/QUOTE]

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I wonder what would happen to the economics if airlines started using the A380 on short-haul trunk routes (e.g. SFO-LAX, LGW-AMS, CDG-FRA)?
The two hour turn-around time for an A380 could never compete with the half hour turn-around time of an A320 for flights less than four to eight hours. The only time we can ever expect to see A380s operating on short-haul routes is during irregular operations. For example, UA used to have 54 daily SFO-LAX flights. When several flights would be cancelled due to weather and the passengers would accumulate, UA would substitute a 747 for one round trip to clear the backlog of passengers. Someone might do the same thing with A380.

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Originally Posted by Spam King View Post
I would think that if an A380neo did get the green light they'd probably also change the wing to add another 1-2% in fuel efficiency.
About 5-7% could be gained from a new wing. The A380 wing is aerodynamically inefficient because it is short and stubby to fit the 80m gate size and it is heavy because it is mainly metal. A CFRP wing with folding wingtips ala the 777X could add 10m to the wingspan and still fit in the 80m gate space when folded, without the complication of having moving surfaces outboard of the hinges. Such a wing together with new engines could make the A380 competitive with the A350 and 777X, but the development cost would be staggering. Given the 25 billion euro that Airbus have already lost on the A380, it's pure fantasy to imagine that the Airbus board would approve spending another, say, 8 billion euro on the program, not including write-off of the existing A380 wing production facilities.

The reality is that production of both the 747 and A380 will be coming to an end in the next several years. A huge increase in the price of fuel might result in one more round of orders for the 747-8F, but that's a long shot. Another significant round of A380 orders is an even longer shot.
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Old June 20th, 2016, 12:57 AM   #8210
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Quote:
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So where will 2nd hand A380s go?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southe...istics_Airport (Victorville)
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Old June 20th, 2016, 09:26 AM   #8211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aviator1942 View Post
According to me the A380 is the most advanced, comfortable and a very reliable aircraft ever produced.
You have a good point with comfortable. On the other hand, the dispatch reliability statistics disprove your idea that the A380 is the most reliable airliner -- it's not even in the top five. In general, modern twins have much better dispatch reliability than modern quads. Most advanced? The A350 and 787 are far more advanced technologically, though the A380 did introduce some advances to commercial aviation, the two most important of which are 5000psi hydraulics and brake-to-vacate brake control system.
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Old June 22nd, 2016, 09:48 PM   #8212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sponge_bob View Post


That Emirates E380 Airbus A380 from Korean Air seems to be a nice ride with just 407 seats.
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Old June 22nd, 2016, 11:03 PM   #8213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorvete na Testa View Post
That Emirates E380 Airbus A380 from Korean Air seems to be a nice ride with just 407 seats.
With both Korean and Singapore airlines, the low seat count is due to a large number of First and Business class seats with a lot of space, not due to anything special in Economy class.
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Old June 23rd, 2016, 04:51 PM   #8214
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Korean Air, when it started operating the 380 has the widest pitch at Economy. Also, there are some D-seats that do not have seat on them so people walking down the aisles can have some sort of "bay" to give way to opposite traffic. I've not seen this on any other 380 I've been to.
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Old June 23rd, 2016, 09:15 PM   #8215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ph Man View Post
Korean Air, when it started operating the 380 has the widest pitch at Economy. Also, there are some D-seats that do not have seat on them so people walking down the aisles can have some sort of "bay" to give way to opposite traffic. I've not seen this on any other 380 I've been to.
All the A380s flying have 10-abreast in Economy class downstairs. Lots of airliners, including some narrow-bodies, have such spaces, often near exits, where it is easy to give way to opposite traffic including carts.
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Old June 23rd, 2016, 10:26 PM   #8216
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First flight for MSN225 today, the first EK powered by Role Royce:
AIB01SQ 23/6/2016 by A380_TLS_A350, sur Flickr
First flight msn225 23/6/2016 by A380_TLS_A350, sur Flickr
AIB03GM (Roll(s)-out !) 23/6/2016 by A380_TLS_A350, sur Flickr
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Old June 24th, 2016, 05:32 PM   #8217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
All the A380s flying have 10-abreast in Economy class downstairs. Lots of airliners, including some narrow-bodies, have such spaces, often near exits, where it is easy to give way to opposite traffic including carts.
Oh, you mean that empty space behind the FA lady on first photo below is not unique to KE? I've never seen anything like it in SQ, QF, EK or BA A380s I've been to.

ICN-JFK way back in 2012.

https://c1.staticflickr.com/9/8466/8...8328acc5_c.jpg

From SeatGuru, it's at 46D.

Correction: I just found out that others have it too.

SQ at 47D (3-class) and 50D (4-class)
BA at 24D
QF at 70D
All at the main deck.

It's not so uncommon after all.
But apparently, EK decided not to take out that seat on any of its 380 configs, perhaps to maximize the space available.
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Old June 24th, 2016, 05:44 PM   #8218
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It's common at the exits, but you never see it at a random row in the middle of the cabin.
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Old June 24th, 2016, 11:47 PM   #8219
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There is missing seat on SIA A380's because they have the crew rest in the cargo deck. The emergency hatch in the ceiling of the crew_rest opens up on the floor at this spot.
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Old June 28th, 2016, 03:33 PM   #8220
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Doubts grow over Airbus A380 sale to Iran - sources
Excerpt

PARIS, June 27 (Reuters) - As Western planemakers seek to finalise lucrative deals to sell some 200 jets to Iran, doubts are growing over the sale of a dozen Airbus A380 superjumbo jets to the country's national flag carrier, several people familiar with deal said.

Iran's return to the international market for new aircraft after decades making do with an antiquated fleet is one of the biggest business opportunities opened by the lifting of sanctions after a deal to rein in its nuclear programme.

The order for the double-decker superjumbo jetliners grabbed attention in January as part of a provisional deal for 118 Airbus jets worth $27 billion signed in Paris in the presence of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

The inclusion of the world's largest jetliner was hailed as a symbol of thawing relations and a sign of Iran's determination to compete economically with political rivals on the Arab side of the Gulf that fly the jet.

The order also threw a lifeline to the A380 itself, following a slump in orders that has left the future of one of Europe's highest profile industrial projects in doubt.

But people familiar with the deal say there are increasing signs that Tehran is having second thoughts about whether to take delivery.

"We always made clear this is an option," an Iranian official told Reuters, asking not to be identified.

"It is possible to switch to other models," he added.

An industry source familiar with the region said Iran was committed to the rest of the order, but was less interested in taking the A380s, ordered in part for political reasons.

Another Iranian official said main obstacles to completing the full order were remaining U.S. financial sanctions.

Others said the A380 part of the order, worth $5.2 billion at list prices, can be cancelled or amended without penalty under the contract before Airbus starts building the jets.

One industry source acknowledged "the A380 part is less solid" than the remaining 106 aircraft, despite the fact that Airbus had pressed Tehran to include the slow-selling model.
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