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Old July 14th, 2016, 09:10 PM   #8241
mcarling
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Originally Posted by medviation View Post
90m wings can't be even if it is folding. It's not just the gates it will have to fit into. It will also have to fit within taxiway-taxiway and taxiway-runway spacing. So you mean it will have to takeoff and land with folded wings then extending them in-flight?
Nope. It would take off and land with the full unfolded wingspan and have the the wingtips folded up while taxiing. At some airports, that would prevent other Category F aircraft (of which only a few hundred exist worldwide) from using an adjacent taxiway while a 90m wingspan aircraft is taking off or landing.

I don't expect Airbus to build efficient wings for the A380, but that's what it would take (together with new engines) to make the A380 economically competitive.
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Old July 14th, 2016, 10:41 PM   #8242
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Its a spectacular aircraft to witness, but the timing was bad...and it looks like its days may be numbered, but there will be hundreds flying for years, so that's good I suppose.
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Old July 15th, 2016, 12:43 AM   #8243
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there will be hundreds flying for years....
There will be hundreds of A380 flying for years -- until the 777-9X will be in wide usage. A number smaller than 100 will probably be flying beyond that, perhaps until about 2025. If the 777-10X will come to market and perform as Boeing are claiming, then the remaining A380s will all be grounded as 777-10s replace them (obviously not on a one-for-one basis).
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Old July 15th, 2016, 02:12 AM   #8244
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Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
There will be hundreds of A380 flying for years -- until the 777-9X will be in wide usage. A number smaller than 100 will probably be flying beyond that, perhaps until about 2025. If the 777-10X will come to market and perform as Boeing are claiming, then the remaining A380s will all be grounded as 777-10s replace them (obviously not on a one-for-one basis).
Hold your horses

There are many airports all over the world that are slot-constrained, and only few cities are building new airports/runways to keep up with demand. Additionally, as the global middle class (specially in China and India) is rapidly growing even more airports are going to become congested.

Even if the 777-10 is launched (something that is still uncertain) it is not going to have more than 450 seats in 2-clases while a similarly configured A380 right now has 615 seats (36% more).

On the other hand, oil prices are likely to remain below $50/barrel during the next decade, so the 10-20% difference in fuel efficiency between the A380 and what it is projected for the 777X (and it wouldn't be the first time that Boeing and GE have missed their performance targets) is not going to be a factor significant enough to scrap perfectly good aircraft.
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Old July 15th, 2016, 03:47 AM   #8245
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A good indicator of opinion of what pax think of the 777, and A380 are EK pax since the airline has the largest number of air frames of both types. The SJ is the overwhelmingly favorite by fare. The 777 just doesn't have the comfort, nor feel of the A380.

The 777-10's minimal three row stretch over the 9 isn't even enough for EK to add showers, and a bar.

What about the range the 10 would offer, I don't think it will match the 9, nor the SJ either.
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Old July 15th, 2016, 03:58 AM   #8246
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Future passengers key to Airbus A380 superjumbo’s survival

THE AUSTRALIAN
12:00AM JULY 15, 2016

Mitchell Bingemann
Reporter
Sydney


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The reports of the death of Airbus's flagship superjumbo, the A380, have been greatly exaggerated, according to analysts who believe the double-decker plane could be poised for a comeback if passenger numbers continue to grow over the next decade.

Airbus slashed production of its A380 superjumbo this week, finally admitting that demand for the 550-seat plane had slumped far below its original ambition of building 1200 over two decades.

Less than a decade into its production run, the build rate for the double-decker plane will be more than halved to one plane a month by 2018, down from the 27 it built last year.

The drastic cuts to the A380 program come after the airline only delivered 193 superjumbos since it introduced it in 2007. It has 126 orders left to fill.

Airbus had bet that demand for the plane would grow as airports became more crowded and cities around the world became more populated, but the market has instead moved to smaller, fuel-efficient aircraft that can fly, packed full of passengers, more often.

So while the A380 remains hugely popular with passengers because of its wide open spaces and relatively roomy seats, airlines continue to struggle to fill it on all but the busiest routes.

“The A380 is in some ways 20 years too early,” Robert Stallard, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, told The Australian.

“For an airline to move up from 400 seats to 550 seats is a massive expansion in capacity and still a big risk for an airline to take on. So it remains a niche aircraft and has been since it entered service.

“But if routes continue to grow at 3 or 4 per cent per year and you compound that over 10 years, you could easily be in a situation where there are a lot more routes around the world that are relevant for the A380.

“There’s probably a better business case in 2025 than there is today for a 550-seat aircraft, which is why I think Airbus is keen to keep it kicking along.”

Analysts believe the sluggish demand for the A380 has also hurt Airbus’s plans to upgrade the superjumbo with more fuel-efficient engines.

Emirates — which remains Airbus’s largest A380 customer with 80 in service and another 62 on order — has all but given up on getting an upgrade of the double-decker and is now just hoping the program does not disappear altogether.

“My main concern is that they stop producing the plane,” Emirates president Tim Clark told reporters on the sidelines of the IATA annual meeting in Dublin last month.

While new engines would enhance the A380 by providing it flexibility with more range and higher takeoff weight, Mr Clark said talks with the manufacturer about an upgrade had “lapsed”.

Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation boss Peter Harbison said Mr Clark’s concerns about the A380 served as a warning.

“Nobody outside Airbus would be nearer to the facts than he is. Without other buyers on the horizon and existing operators — aside from Emirates — showing little interest in buying more, a production reduction wasn’t optional, it was unavoidable,” Mr Harbison said.

“At this stage it looks like a continuing wind down, unless someone makes a decision to invest heavily — a smattering of small orders wouldn’t cut it.”

Mr Stallard said the airline’s decision to delay an upgrade of the superjumbo made sense as it would crunch demand for the A380s still in production.

“They want to do a refresh at some point but they don’t want to do it too early because if you do it now then no one will want the old version; they’ll all want the new version, which will crush the backlog,” Mr Stallard said.
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Old July 15th, 2016, 09:45 AM   #8247
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There are many airports all over the world that are slot-constrained....
No, there are not. There are several airports worldwide that are slot-constrained. The most slot-constrained airport in the world in LHR and the majority of flights into and out of LHR are still single-aisle aircraft like the A320 and 737.

The idea that slot constraints are going to save the A380 in the face of the superior operating economics of the A350 and 777X is really far-fetched. To the extent that the A380 has sold at all, it was because it had superior operating economics on very heavy demand routes compared to the past competition, not so much because of slot constraints.
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Old July 20th, 2016, 08:02 AM   #8248
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Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
No, there are not. There are several airports worldwide that are slot-constrained. The most slot-constrained airport in the world in LHR and the majority of flights into and out of LHR are still single-aisle aircraft like the A320 and 737.

The idea that slot constraints are going to save the A380 in the face of the superior operating economics of the A350 and 777X is really far-fetched. To the extent that the A380 has sold at all, it was because it had superior operating economics on very heavy demand routes compared to the past competition, not so much because of slot constraints.
Heathrow is slot constrained right now but once Brexit takes effect business-centric traffic is going to plummet and non-EU pleasure traffic is going to increase (due to cheap GBP). Yet, as most non-EU destinations are outside the range of narrow body aircraft I'm willing to bet $1.95 that its 3rd runway is not going to be built.

But my point is that the future of the A380 is not LHR but rather India and China.

China has invested in new airports, but they are still going to become quite congested during the next decade (the situation in India is no better). Furthermore, both countries are quite protectionist and so I don't imagine that they will be willing to assign many slots in congested airports to foreign airlines. And so foreign airlines are going to need VLAs to compete in those markets.

As another example, Chinese and Indians are right now the largest groups of new immigrants into the US. Most China-US flights can be done with current aircraft, but both countries are not willing to grant many slots to each other and so if traffic keeps increasing airlines will be forced to increase seat numbers even if they cannot increase frequencies. In the case of US-India flights Middle east airlines will continue to dominate that market and we all know what that means.
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Old July 20th, 2016, 08:26 AM   #8249
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Originally Posted by JMR75 View Post
Heathrow is slot constrained right now but once Brexit takes effect business-centric traffic is going to plummet and non-EU pleasure traffic is going to increase (due to cheap GBP). Yet, as most non-EU destinations are outside the range of narrow body aircraft I'm willing to bet $1.95 that its 3rd runway is not going to be built.

But my point is that the future of the A380 is not LHR but rather India and China.

China has invested in new airports, but they are still going to become quite congested during the next decade (the situation in India is no better). Furthermore, both countries are quite protectionist and so I don't imagine that they will be willing to assign many slots in congested airports to foreign airlines. And so foreign airlines are going to need VLAs to compete in those markets.

As another example, Chinese and Indians are right now the largest groups of new immigrants into the US. Most China-US flights can be done with current aircraft, but both countries are not willing to grant many slots to each other and so if traffic keeps increasing airlines will be forced to increase seat numbers even if they cannot increase frequencies. In the case of US-India flights Middle east airlines will continue to dominate that market and we all know what that means.
That's a mixture of conjecture and nonsense. Here are the facts: The US and India have an Open Skies agreement. The US and China have greatly liberalized their air services agreement. China is building 20 new airports per year. The US airlines (AA, DL, and UA) have consistently been very clear that they are not interested in the A380.
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Old July 21st, 2016, 05:28 AM   #8250
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if airbus considered producing freight a380 this could be a possible costumer

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifieda...hp?id=00006600
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Old July 21st, 2016, 06:10 AM   #8251
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FedEx cancelled their A380 orders in 2006.
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Old July 21st, 2016, 06:57 AM   #8252
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Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
That's a mixture of conjecture and nonsense. Here are the facts: The US and India have an Open Skies agreement. The US and China have greatly liberalized their air services agreement. China is building 20 new airports per year. The US airlines (AA, DL, and UA) have consistently been very clear that they are not interested in the A380.
I can say pretty much the same about your response:

It doesn't matter that India and US have an open air agreement, the India-US market is dominated by Middle East airlines and they are quite comfortable using the A380.

So tell me, is China building «20 airports per year» in its largest cities (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzen, Beijing, etc) or in smaller cities that hardly have international services?
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Old July 21st, 2016, 07:50 AM   #8253
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So tell me, is China building «20 airports per year» in its largest cities (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzen, Beijing, etc) or in smaller cities that hardly have international services?
Actually, most of China's largest cities are getting their 2nd airports.

Chengdu-Tianfu
Chongqing T3 (the new terminal's a mega terminal)
Beijing-Daxing
Shenzhen's 2nd airport northeast of the city
Guangzhou Baiyun is completing its T2, planning a new mega T3 beside the airport
Guangzhou's 2nd airport in Foshan
Qingdao's 2nd airport that looks like a ******
Dalian is getting a huge man-made island airport
Xiamen is getting a huge man-made island airport
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Old July 21st, 2016, 05:16 PM   #8254
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Heathrow is slot constrained right now but once Brexit takes effect business-centric traffic is going to plummet and non-EU pleasure traffic is going to increase (due to cheap GBP).
That is not going to happen. London is, and will continue to be, Europe's financial and business capital. Brexit will only strengthen this as finance and business will become much more international instead of just EU-centric.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 08:40 PM   #8255
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if airbus considered producing freight a380 this could be a possible costumer
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FedEx cancelled their A380 orders in 2006.
The reason for the cancellation was that Airbus had announced more delays, which basically meant that they were axing the A380F. This was such a nasty break-up that it's highly unlikely that FedEx will reorder them if the A380F is relaunched. They are now very very cosy with Boeing and there's serious bad blood between them and Airbus.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 10:14 PM   #8256
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The reason for the cancellation was that Airbus had announced more delays, which basically meant that they were axing the A380F. This was such a nasty break-up that it's highly unlikely that FedEx will reorder them if the A380F is relaunched. They are now very very cosy with Boeing and there's serious bad blood between them and Airbus.
I wonder why Airbus hasn't explored an A350 freighter.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 10:31 PM   #8257
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I wonder why Airbus hasn't explored an A350 freighter.
It's quite soon. Look at the time for other models from when the first passenger version was introduced until the first freighter was introduced. It's often up to ten years. The 777F was unusually fast to market -- only four years after the first 777. I expect we'll see progress soon toward an A350-900F.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 10:52 PM   #8258
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They sold just 42 A330Fs, they know that the big market is for passenger planes. Why bother spending money on developing a freighter if they can sell the passenger variant at a higher premium.

As FedEx was mentioned, they keep on ordering the good old 767 Freighters. If the largest cargo customers don't mind buying the older planes it further diminishes the market for new cargo planes. Which can also be seen at the slow 747F sales and production rates.

With the cargo market being very slow right now, very slow, I don't see the A350F happening in the near future, if it happens at all. They will first try to sell a couple more A330Fs. And if that's not happening, also very likely, they try to increase the market for the A330-300P2F program.
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Old July 23rd, 2016, 01:33 AM   #8259
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That is not going to happen. London is, and will continue to be, Europe's financial and business capital. Brexit will only strengthen this as finance and business will become much more international instead of just EU-centric.
I'll go off topic, but anyway... Heathrow's future will depend on how UK negociates services agreements with the European Union, basically, whether UK airliners will be treated as EU airliners. In that negotiation process, there are three competitors (FRA, CDG, and AMS) that may make things more interesting.
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Old July 23rd, 2016, 04:49 AM   #8260
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I'll go off topic, but anyway... Heathrow's future will depend on how UK negociates services agreements with the European Union, basically, whether UK airliners will be treated as EU airliners. In that negotiation process, there are three competitors (FRA, CDG, and AMS) that may make things more interesting.
Not really. It's clear how the UK-EU aviation services negotiations will go: There will be a liberal Open Skies regime that will not allow for cabotage. Whether or not Fifth Freedom rights will be included doesn't really matter because smaller, more efficient, longer-range twins have greatly reduces Fifth Freedom flying even as Fifth Freedom rights have expanded with more liberal air services agreements.

Bringing this line of discussion back toward the topic of the A380, there is no possible agreement between the UK and the EU which would result in A380s operating between the UK and EU other than to ban or restrict all other airliners, which isn't going to fly.
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