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Old July 23rd, 2016, 06:04 AM   #8261
JMR75
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Originally Posted by Spam King View Post
That is not going to happen. London is, and will continue to be, Europe's financial and business capital. Brexit will only strengthen this as finance and business will become much more international instead of just EU-centric.
That's your opinion, but here are some issues:

- The EU would not grant the UK a "banking passport" without agreeing to basically all obligations a regular EU member has. If the UK government agrees to that, then basically all that was achieved by leaving the EU will be losing the right to vote on and influence EU-policy, if not then May will do to the banks what Thatcher did to the coal industry.

- Losing the "banking passport" means that UK banks cannot offer financial services in the European Economic Area and that's a pretty large market to lose and remain «Europe's financial and business capital».

- FOREX trading is unlikely to be affected much by Brexit, so that niche would likely remain in London.

- The only industry that is likely to be strengthen in the UK is tax avoiding services (London will surely make a better tax-heaven than Jersey or the Cayman Islands currently are).

- London is geographically well positioned to offer financial services in European time zones, if they lose access to European markets then all they can offer effectively is financial services to African countries. Financial services to Asia and America can be offered more effectively from on-shore locations.

- If Brexit will «strengthen» finance and business in the UK, how comes no major financial or business entity endorsed the leave campaign and lots of companies are informing in their quarterly results that they are gonna lose money due to it?

Here's a little article you may (or may not) enjoy.

..but back on topic-ish:

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Originally Posted by Spam King View Post
I wonder why Airbus hasn't explored an A350 freighter.
Cargo airlines are not known for flying cutting edge planes when they can get older ones cheaply. If Airbus is interested in selling freighters they are more likely to offer new A330CEOs and A330 converted freighters than even A330NEOs or A350s to prospective customers.

Even the existing B777F is having difficulties getting new orders to fill the production slots that are vacant until they start assembling 777-8/9. In view of this Airbus would have to be completely crazy to develop a freighter that competes with one that in absence of rivals is not selling well.

On top of all that there's not much action in the freighter market given that the margins of freighter airlines are low due to all the capacity offered by passenger aircraft carrying belly cargo.

---------------------------------

And back to the A380: It is rumored that the canceled Freighter variant is partially to blame for the over-specified/non-optimal wings that the current A388 has.
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Old July 23rd, 2016, 02:25 PM   #8262
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To be honest I don't see LHR traffic dropping from Brexit and I see Terminal 5 still maxed out by BA.
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Old July 24th, 2016, 09:49 AM   #8263
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To be honest I don't see LHR traffic dropping from Brexit and I see Terminal 5 still maxed out by BA.
Only the future will tell us but DELTA will reduce flight to London due to BRETXIT
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Old July 25th, 2016, 12:19 AM   #8264
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Only the future will tell us but DELTA will reduce flight to London due to BRETXIT
The short-term effects have been negative, perhaps because nearly all the talking heads have been crying out doom and gloom. The long-term effects are unknown.
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Old July 25th, 2016, 02:00 AM   #8265
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It will take the UK 5 years to run a planning hearing on a new London runway never mind build it. Net result is Heathrow will remain constrained till 2025, guaranteed.
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Old July 25th, 2016, 12:55 PM   #8266
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It will take the UK 5 years to run a planning hearing on a new London runway never mind build it. Net result is Heathrow will remain constrained till 2025, guaranteed.
All the while sinking further and further down in its ranking as one the world's busiest airports ....
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Old July 25th, 2016, 01:16 PM   #8267
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All the while sinking further and further down in its ranking as one the world's busiest airports ....
It will not lose its status in Western Europe, remaining the biggest of the big 5 for as long as I can see ahead. ....I speak as one who personally prefers Schiphol and Barajas T4 as my favourite transit airports too.
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Old July 25th, 2016, 04:09 PM   #8268
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Honestly, I don't understand why each discussion on the A380's survival or rationale ends up bringing up the topic about Heathrow. Yes, Heathrow may be slot restricted and it's unlikely that Heathrow will be expanded in the medium to long term. However, one should consider that for most carriers serving Heathrow, the A380 is NOT the next logical option to upgauge to, even if they want to increase capacity to slot restricted airports.

Take Cathay Pacific for example. On the surface, Cathay Pacific's 5 daily Boeing 777-300ER flights may appear to be a prime target for A380 options until you realize that they're configured as 4-class 275-seater aircraft. Let's assume CX can't obtain anymore slots but require more capacity, they still have far more options such as upgauging to 3-class 340-seater B777-300ER, reconfiguring their 4-class 77W Economy Class to 10-abreast which would give it an increase of at least 45 seats per flight, upgauging to 777-9 which would give them a 4-class 325-seater per flight. As Airbus and Boeing mull the A350-2000 and B777-10, that gives them an additional option to raise their seating to 350-seats.

Airlines like Cathay Pacific still have so many more options before the A380 question even becomes justified, what more the American carriers, who currently have the luxury of frequency and lower capacity aircraft?

So, what about airlines that already have the A380? What can they do if they truly require more capacity and can't add anymore flights? Well, they can stop flying the A380. With the exception of Emirates, most of the airlines serving Heathrow with A380s are not really using the aircraft for its capacity but for prestige and the 'out-of-this-world' hard product, which one could argue is an underusage of slots. At the very worse, airlines which truly require additional capacity will find a way just as Emirates did - funnel all the premium traffic into London and everybody else through Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, etc....the secondary UK cities.
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Old July 25th, 2016, 04:23 PM   #8269
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Take Cathay Pacific for example. On the surface, Cathay Pacific's 5 daily Boeing 777-300ER flights may appear to be a prime target for A380 options until you realize that they're configured as 4-class 275-seater aircraft. Let's assume CX can't obtain anymore slots but require more capacity, they still have far more options .
Cathay consistently say they make their money on frequency not on capacity...IE they will never drop from 4 to 2 flights a day with the same overall seat numbers.

Quote:
At the very worse, airlines which truly require additional capacity will find a way just as Emirates did - funnel all the premium traffic into London and everybody else through Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, etc....the secondary UK cities.
Indeed, and new EK A380s tend to be 2 class 600+ seaters not the luxury palaces with less than 500 seats that service LHR. As well as that IAG bought Aer Lingus to reroute more transatlantic traffic via Dublin for Northern UK passengers.
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Old July 25th, 2016, 05:40 PM   #8270
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Only the future will tell us but DELTA will reduce flight to London due to BRETXIT
They may be using Brexit as an excuse, but the fact is that the US has a huge amount of overcapacity this year. Brexit concerns are a very very very very very small reason for that.
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Old July 26th, 2016, 12:56 AM   #8271
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Honestly, I don't understand why each discussion on the A380's survival or rationale ends up bringing up the topic about Heathrow.
The A380 fans who are trying to convince themselves, against all the evidence, that the A380 has a future are clinging to the simplistic argument that slot controls at busy airports will magically cause the airlines to ignore economics.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 12:17 AM   #8272
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It is assumed that the 777-X will have better economics than the A380, but I would wait until after its EIS to see if the 777-X actually achieves its performance targets before declaring the dead of the A380.

And even so, as oil is likely to remain cheap (due to over-production and slow growth in consumption) better economics would not matter as much as when oil was above 100 USD/barrel. As point of comparison, at current oil prices the 777 has yet to displace 100's of A340s that remain operating and those 2 aircraft have similar capabilities (i.e. the 777 would have an easier time replacing A340s than A380s).
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Old July 28th, 2016, 02:45 AM   #8273
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After $5M in modifications, luxury Airbus A380 lands at O'Hare

Quote:
Private suites, lie-flat beds, a lounge, showers, free Wi-Fi and a 261-foot wing span glided into O'Hare International Airport Tuesday.

The world's largest commercial airplane, the Airbus A380, arrived at Terminal 5, berthing at a gate that received $5 million in modifications to accommodate the behemoth.

(...) But don't rush to book flights -- yet. Tuesday's event was a test of the new gate and it will be some months before regular flights with the A380 commence.

"We have had discussions with three or four carriers that have it in their fleet and have an interest in having access," Evans said. Those include European and Asian airlines.
-------------------------------------------------

Emirates to deploy A380 on Johannesburg route:
The jumbo jet will be deployed on the route from February 1, 2017

Quote:
Dubai airline Emirates will be upgrading one of its four daily flights between Dubai and Johannesburg to an Airbus A380-800 from February 1, 2017, it announced on Tuesday.

The carrier currently uses a Boeing 777 aircraft for each of the four daily flights.

The jumbo A380 jet will be deployed on the first flight of the day, EK761, and will depart Dubai at 04h40 and arrive in Johannesburg at 10h55. The return flight, EK762, will depart Johannesburg at 13h25 and arrive in Dubai at 23h45.

The A380 will offer a total of 516 seats in a three class cabin configuration, with 14 private suites in first class, 76 lie-flat seats in business class and 426 economy seats.

It will also provide onboard shower spas for first class passengers and a lounge for first and business class guests.

The new service will be operated as codeshare with South African Airways as with all other Emirates’ services to South Africa.

The Dubai-Johannesburg route is the busiest in the airline’s African network with over three million passengers carried in the last five years, a statement said.
-------------------------------------------

News: Etihad Airways adds second Airbus A380 to New York route

Quote:
Etihad Airways has announced plans to increase Airbus A380 service between New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport and Abu Dhabi International Airport in response to heightened demand from guests traveling between the two destinations.

Beginning on June 1st, 2017, the airline will upgrade its second flight between Abu Dhabi and New York JFK to its A380 aircraft.

The new service will join the airline’s existing daily A380 service, replacing the current daily Boeing 777-300ER aircraft.

Etihad first began welcoming guests on board its first A380 flight between New York JFK and Abu Dhabi in November 2015.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 06:34 AM   #8274
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Cathay consistently say they make their money on frequency not on capacity...IE they will never drop from 4 to 2 flights a day with the same overall seat numbers.
I love CX, I've flown with them more times more than any airline on Earth but they can be a little BS with their statements.

The fact for Cathay Pacific is that the Hong Kong-London market, and the feed and neighborhoods from which Cathay Pacific fills its 5 Heathrow flights, declined since the start of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. It's coincidentally when they officially switched to their "frequency over capacity" statements from a previous position of basically being the only champion for the A380-900 and flying 4 daily 376-seater B747-400s. Cathay Pacific has had to severely downgauge (cutting exactly 100 Economy Class seats per flight) due to the sudden emergence of the Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese airlines. The decline of the Hong Kong-London market is even more significant when one considers that Virgin Atlantic, Hong Kong Airlines, Air New Zealand all exited the market. Even Qantas canned Hong Kong-Europe flights BEFORE canning its Bangkok-Europe ones.

The only reason why Cathay Pacific isn't relegated to a local-only 2 daily Heathrow carrier and operating the smallest possible aircraft they can just like how ANA and JAL now are, is because the China big 3's only saving grace is their alliance membership and China's best airline, Hainan Airlines (it is 5-star if you're a Mandarin-speaker) can't fly nonstop flights to the profitable high-demand destinations. If and when airlines like MH, GA, TG, VN ever become strong and healthy intercontinental airlines, SQ too, will suddenly champion "frequency over capacity" as they cut their A380s.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 07:12 AM   #8275
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It is assumed that the 777-X will have better economics than the A380, but I would wait until after its EIS to see if the 777-X actually achieves its performance targets before declaring the dead of the A380.
All the important factors, weight, L/D ratio, SFC of the engines can be modeled to within plus/minus about 1%. The question is not if the A350-1100 and 777-9X will have better economics than the A380. The question is how much better.

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As point of comparison, at current oil prices the 777 has yet to displace 100's of A340s that remain operating and those 2 aircraft have similar capabilities (i.e. the 777 would have an easier time replacing A340s than A380s).
The argument is not that the airlines will suddenly ground their A380s. The argument is that airlines will stop buying A380s (which has mostly already happened). Some A340s are still flying but many were retired well before reaching 25 years old.

Also, A340s make good VIP aircraft, in cases were an extra large VIP aircraft is needed. A380s are too large for that.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 08:59 AM   #8276
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Multiple Airbus A380s captured.

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Old July 28th, 2016, 12:16 PM   #8277
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Emirates to deploy A380 on Johannesburg route:
Quote:
News: Etihad Airways adds second Airbus A380 to New York route

Good news from Emirates and Etihad
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Old July 28th, 2016, 12:18 PM   #8278
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All the important factors, weight, L/D ratio, SFC of the engines can be modeled to within plus/minus about 1%. The question is not if the A350-1100 and 777-9X will have better economics than the A380. The question is how much better.


The argument is not that the airlines will suddenly ground their A380s. The argument is that airlines will stop buying A380s (which has mostly already happened). Some A340s are still flying but many were retired well before reaching 25 years old.

Also, A340s make good VIP aircraft, in cases were an extra large VIP aircraft is needed. A380s are too large for that.
Now what is the capacity of 777-9X and A350-1000 compare to A380 ?
Just remind all important airports arrive in full capacity without new slots for airlines.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 06:14 PM   #8279
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That's your opinion, but here are some issues:

- The EU would not grant the UK a "banking passport" without agreeing to basically all obligations a regular EU member has. If the UK government agrees to that, then basically all that was achieved by leaving the EU will be losing the right to vote on and influence EU-policy, if not then May will do to the banks what Thatcher did to the coal industry.
Considering that Switzerland isn't in the European Union, or even in the EEA, that shows that your claim isn't true. The UK will most likely keep it's passporting rights through whatever bilateral treaty is signed between the UK and the EU.
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Old July 28th, 2016, 06:23 PM   #8280
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And even so, as oil is likely to remain cheap (due to over-production and slow growth in consumption) better economics would not matter as much as when oil was above 100 USD/barrel. As point of comparison, at current oil prices the 777 has yet to displace 100's of A340s that remain operating and those 2 aircraft have similar capabilities (i.e. the 777 would have an easier time replacing A340s than A380s).
There are only around 220 A340s in service. Compare that to over 1200 777s. It shows that the 777 has effectively displaced the A340 (you can also tell by the fact that Airbus stopped producing it because it just didn't make any economic sense for airlines to keep buying).

The largest operator, Lufthansa, is already in the process of shedding some of their A340s. I believe they've already sold 6, and are negotiating with Iran Air to sell some more. The A340 will be replaced within the next 10 years completely by the A350.

Iberia which is the second largest operator is only keeping them for high altitute routes such as Mexico City, Bogota and Quito which require the thrust of an A340 to carry the passenger loads they routes need. Even then, their A340-300s are being replaced with A330s


South African Airways and Virgin are also offloading their A340s. The only reason they're still in service is low fuel prices.
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