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Old July 29th, 2016, 05:08 AM   #8281
mcarling
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Originally Posted by bsg75 View Post
Now what is the capacity of 777-9X and A350-1000 compare to A380 ?
Just remind all important airports arrive in full capacity without new slots for airlines.
Ah! The slot argument again.

Very few airports have slot restrictions. Even at airports with slot restrictions, airlines succeed in getting slots when they really want them.

Despite slot restrictions, A380 orders have slowed virtually to a stop and Airbus have announced that the A380 production line (which was optimized for a planned production rate of 45 per year) will be slowed again to 12 per year. Since orders have been averaging fewer than 12 per year, that is obviously not sustainable (without even taking into consideration that Airbus will probably lose at least 1 billion euro per year at a production rate of 12 per year). The order book will run dry and the line will close. It's only a question of when.
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Old July 29th, 2016, 12:13 PM   #8282
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Originally Posted by bsg75 View Post
Now what is the capacity of 777-9X and A350-1000 compare to A380 ?
Just remind all important airports arrive in full capacity without new slots for airlines.
Remind us, what are some of these "important airports" that have arrived in full capacity without new slots for airlines?

Obviously, Heathrow isn't one of them. I mean, Heathrow provided Garuda Indonesia with a slot (in 2016 no less!) for their CGK-SIN-LHR-CGK flight. Heathrow also have on record, said that Tianjin Airlines' TSN-CKG-LGW service will also switch to Heathrow as well. This is certainly NOT an airport that has arrived in full capacity without slots for airlines.

As for the capacity of the 777-9 and A350-1000, the A350-1000 is basically a one-for-one 9-abreast Economy Class B777-300ER replacement. Hence, in Cathay Pacific configuration, the A350-1000 will likely be configured in a similar fashion to its existing B777-300ER fleet, a.k.a. 275-seats. The 777-9 is basically a one-for-one 10-abreast Economy Class B777-300ER replacement except that it'll be slightly more comfortable in Economy, making it a pleasant 315-320-seater in CX configuration.

However, Cathay Pacific is considered more of a premium airline. For most airlines however, such as Emirates, which operates a third of the world's fleet of 777-300ERs and 90% of the world's fleet of A380s, the 777-9 will seat around 380-450 passengers. Its 777-300ER are configured in 360-seats and 428-seats, and the 777-9 is about 4/5 rows longer than a 777-300ER. Qatar Airways' 777-300ERs are similar configured in 335-380 seats, so in their configuration, expect the 777-9 to be about 375-420 seats.

Those upper threshold numbers already exceed or are very near the configuration of most non-EK A380 operators (KE: 407, SQ: 379, QF: 484, EK: 489).

What's more, there is talk of the A350-1100/2000/8000 and more importantly, the 777-10. The A380 on the other hand, is an aircraft introduced nearly 10 years ago, with its last PIP introduced 4 years ago with absolutely NO PIPs in store, NO re-engining, NO weight improvements, nothing since 2012. Even EK's new batch of RR-engined A380s are based on last PIPs in 2012. No airline buys an aircraft that's so...dated. It's a late 2000s aircraft and if you can fill it, is competitive against the B777-300ER. But the 777-300ER is about to replaced by the 777-9 and A350-1000 and possibly, the 777-10 and A350-1100 added into the mix.

Finally, are we operating in a socialist, communist world? Even authoritarian Russia's and communist China's state-owned enterprises are primarily driven by capitalist, profit-maximizing philosophies. So what if airports are slot restricted, so what if airports have no new slots? Why are airlines obligated to meet all the demand for air travel by sacrificing yield for load factor when they can simply increase yield by limiting supply of seats in the market?

That's why airlines aren't buying more A380s - it's not that airports aren't full, they are. However, most airlines are not subsidized or state-owned - and even most of them which are linked to the state still mostly operate as a business. And like most businesses, they need to find a way to stay competitive when a foreign player floods the market with cheap AND good products, by reacting to that oversupply as well as the market's demand for the product. For most of the incumbents, their strategy is to inevitably find niches and areas of specialization, i.e. focusing less on the mass market, and focusing on premium, high value passenger, compensating for the oversupply that airlines such as Emirates created when they flood the market with more Economy seats than the market can absorb profitably and sustainably.
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Old July 30th, 2016, 01:26 AM   #8283
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The last statement is incorrect, twice, in fact, first because today Emirates is extremely profitable and regarding the future world economy is growing above 3 percent, just what it has being doing for the last 75 years, and regardless of what happens región by región, it will continue to do so.
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Old July 30th, 2016, 02:29 AM   #8284
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Why are airlines obligated to meet all the demand for air travel by sacrificing yield for load factor when they can simply increase yield by limiting supply of seats in the market?
Yet passenger numbers and seat capacity in most markets continue to climb at record levels, but not yields ?

Last edited by camfloss; July 30th, 2016 at 03:12 AM. Reason: grammar
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Old July 30th, 2016, 03:06 AM   #8285
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Originally Posted by ddes View Post

Finally, are we operating in a socialist, communist world? Even authoritarian Russia's and communist China's state-owned enterprises are primarily driven by capitalist, profit-maximizing philosophies. So what if airports are slot restricted, so what if airports have no new slots? Why are airlines obligated to meet all the demand for air travel by sacrificing yield for load factor when they can simply increase yield by limiting supply of seats in the market?
The demand will be met exactly because we don't live in a socialist world. If airlines restrict their seat capacity then others will fill the gap. That's exactly where the gulf carriers come to play with their massive capacities. Whether its with their A380s or future 777-9/10's, these airliner behemoths have their market.

Alone the development of the 777-9 and potentially 777-10 shows the confidence in the super large aircraft market. That the A380 is now an old aircraft and urgently needs an overhaul in efficiency is a different story.
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Old July 30th, 2016, 03:15 AM   #8286
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Alone the development of the 777-9 and potentially 777-10 shows the confidence in the super large aircraft market.
Also no matter how long they stretch the cabins, they are essentially the same aircraft cabin...There will always be room for something larger and flexible to configure, in this regard the A380 has the market to itself still.
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Old July 30th, 2016, 03:36 AM   #8287
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Alone the development of the 777-9 and potentially 777-10 shows the confidence in the super large aircraft market.
Again Emirates have put in half the orders and total 777X sales, to date, are well below total A380 sales to date. This year has been very quiet for 777X sales. Moribund even.

I'm seriously wondering whether ANYBODY wants a 400 seater capacity frame right now...irrespective of whether it is a twin or quad engine bus.

I believe everyone is crapping themselves at getting caught with overcapacity right now and that this order malaise for heavies will last all of 2017 as well. We are seeing sales around the 275-325 seat 3 class mark for sure but anything bigger in 2016, nah.
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Old July 30th, 2016, 08:51 AM   #8288
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The most important trend right now concerning wide-body orders, which is fueled by the current market conditions, is that airlines are not ordering lots of planes years in advance anymore. Airlines ordering now are receiving their 1st planes 2 or 3 years from now. In case of the 777X this means that airlines are waiting as the 1st available delivery slots are for 2021. More orders will come over the next couple of years. You have to look at it from a longer term perspective, not just from the current day market. Considering the number of airlines that are currently flying a very young fleet of 777-300ER's in very dense configurations of 350 seats or more there will remain a market for this kind of large aircraft. Even if the orders for the 777X, or even the A350-1000 are currently very slow.

That's also a problem for the A380neo. If Airbus launches it now it will 1st only depend on 1 large, very strongly discounted order from Emirates. Other airlines will very likely order it too (also as replacements for early A380ceo's), but only a bit later when there are certain fixed delivery slots available in a reasonable time frame. The gap between the launch and the time these orders will drip is simply too long for the accountants to make it worthwhile to go ahead with the A380neo. Especially since the A380 program has not made any money yet and will continue to loose money over the next couple of years as the production rate will again be reduced. Yes, I know that Airbus has reached production break-even on a delivered unit basis for now. But when you break even it doesn't mean that you earn any money, it just means that you are not loosing any money anymore.
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Old July 30th, 2016, 12:45 PM   #8289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddes View Post
Remind us, what are some of these "important airports" that have arrived in full capacity without new slots for airlines?

Obviously, Heathrow isn't one of them. I mean, Heathrow provided Garuda Indonesia with a slot (in 2016 no less!) for their CGK-SIN-LHR-CGK flight. Heathrow also have on record, said that Tianjin Airlines' TSN-CKG-LGW service will also switch to Heathrow as well. This is certainly NOT an airport that has arrived in full capacity without slots for airlines.

As for the capacity of the 777-9 and A350-1000, the A350-1000 is basically a one-for-one 9-abreast Economy Class B777-300ER replacement. Hence, in Cathay Pacific configuration, the A350-1000 will likely be configured in a similar fashion to its existing B777-300ER fleet, a.k.a. 275-seats. The 777-9 is basically a one-for-one 10-abreast Economy Class B777-300ER replacement except that it'll be slightly more comfortable in Economy, making it a pleasant 315-320-seater in CX configuration.

However, Cathay Pacific is considered more of a premium airline. For most airlines however, such as Emirates, which operates a third of the world's fleet of 777-300ERs and 90% of the world's fleet of A380s, the 777-9 will seat around 380-450 passengers. Its 777-300ER are configured in 360-seats and 428-seats, and the 777-9 is about 4/5 rows longer than a 777-300ER. Qatar Airways' 777-300ERs are similar configured in 335-380 seats, so in their configuration, expect the 777-9 to be about 375-420 seats.

Those upper threshold numbers already exceed or are very near the configuration of most non-EK A380 operators (KE: 407, SQ: 379, QF: 484, EK: 489).

What's more, there is talk of the A350-1100/2000/8000 and more importantly, the 777-10. The A380 on the other hand, is an aircraft introduced nearly 10 years ago, with its last PIP introduced 4 years ago with absolutely NO PIPs in store, NO re-engining, NO weight improvements, nothing since 2012. Even EK's new batch of RR-engined A380s are based on last PIPs in 2012. No airline buys an aircraft that's so...dated. It's a late 2000s aircraft and if you can fill it, is competitive against the B777-300ER. But the 777-300ER is about to replaced by the 777-9 and A350-1000 and possibly, the 777-10 and A350-1100 added into the mix.

Finally, are we operating in a socialist, communist world? Even authoritarian Russia's and communist China's state-owned enterprises are primarily driven by capitalist, profit-maximizing philosophies. So what if airports are slot restricted, so what if airports have no new slots? Why are airlines obligated to meet all the demand for air travel by sacrificing yield for load factor when they can simply increase yield by limiting supply of seats in the market?

That's why airlines aren't buying more A380s - it's not that airports aren't full, they are. However, most airlines are not subsidized or state-owned - and even most of them which are linked to the state still mostly operate as a business. And like most businesses, they need to find a way to stay competitive when a foreign player floods the market with cheap AND good products, by reacting to that oversupply as well as the market's demand for the product. For most of the incumbents, their strategy is to inevitably find niches and areas of specialization, i.e. focusing less on the mass market, and focusing on premium, high value passenger, compensating for the oversupply that airlines such as Emirates created when they flood the market with more Economy seats than the market can absorb profitably and sustainably.
"Those upper threshold numbers already exceed or are very near the configuration of most non-EK A380 operators (KE: 407, SQ: 379, QF: 484, EK: 489)."

I allow me to correct you :
-KE : correct
-SQ : 379, 409,441, 471 ;
-QF : Correct ;
-EK : 489,517, 615.

Don't forget other a380 user :
-AF : 516 ;
- BA : 469 ;
- CS : 506 ;
- EY : 496 ;
- LH : 509 ;
- QR : 517 ;
- TG 507.

"Obviously, Heathrow isn't one of them. I mean, Heathrow provided Garuda Indonesia with a slot (in 2016 no less!) for their CGK-SIN-LHR-CGK flight. Heathrow also have on record, said that Tianjin Airlines' TSN-CKG-LGW service will also switch to Heathrow as well. This is certainly NOT an airport that has arrived in full capacity without slots for airlines."

Slot at heathrow are full Garuda receive one after other airlines sell one.

In begining of 2016 AF and KQ sold slot to other airliners in Heathrow.

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Old July 31st, 2016, 08:29 AM   #8290
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Especially since the A380 program has not made any money yet ....
Airbus have lost about 25,000,000,000 euro on the A380. Even if they are able to break even on marginal continued production at 30 frames per year (which they can't sell), there is zero possibility of the A380 program ever breaking even. 25,000,000,000 euro is too big a hole to fill.

The A380 program is the biggest financial disaster in the history of aviation. To say that it has not made any money yet is strictly true but the implication that it might do so in the future is so very wrong.
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Old July 31st, 2016, 01:57 PM   #8291
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The A380 program is the biggest financial disaster in the history of aviation. To say that it has not made any money yet is strictly true but the implication that it might do so in the future is so very wrong.
The 787 @ $29bn recognised is actually bigger right now but it will make a lot of that back from now on.

The biggest disaster was Concorde.
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Old July 31st, 2016, 04:49 PM   #8292
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A lot of the money invested is by governments, Airbus would go bust with a 25 billion USD hit/loss. Think of it like a city spending/investing on a stadium so a good privately owned team will use it.

Honestly with all the stupid things governments spend money on like senseless things like war, the A380 investment actually made my life better by being able to experience flying in it.

For those who follow the markets will know that Boeing is going through a more difficult period than Airbus at the moment. Even Boeing stocks are dropping where Airbus is rising. The markets/numbers never lie.
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Old July 31st, 2016, 05:07 PM   #8293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bsg75 View Post
"Those upper threshold numbers already exceed or are very near the configuration of most non-EK A380 operators (KE: 407, SQ: 379, QF: 484, EK: 489)."

I allow me to correct you :
-KE : correct
-SQ : 379, 409,441, 471 ;
-QF : Correct ;
-EK : 489,517, 615.

Don't forget other a380 user :
-AF : 516 ;
- BA : 469 ;
- CS : 506 ;
- EY : 496 ;
- LH : 509 ;
- QR : 517 ;
- TG 507.

"Obviously, Heathrow isn't one of them. I mean, Heathrow provided Garuda Indonesia with a slot (in 2016 no less!) for their CGK-SIN-LHR-CGK flight. Heathrow also have on record, said that Tianjin Airlines' TSN-CKG-LGW service will also switch to Heathrow as well. This is certainly NOT an airport that has arrived in full capacity without slots for airlines."

Slot at heathrow are full Garuda receive one after other airlines sell one.

In begining of 2016 AF and KQ sold slot to other airliners in Heathrow.

Thank you for the correction. May I remind you that you do need to provide the list of important airports that are full, besides Heathrow.

By the way, I was being sarcastic, and when para-phrasing your sentence, intentionally dropped the "new" in "arrived in full capacity without slots for airlines". In my last paragraph, I actually acknowledge that "airports are full".

Unfortunately, you've yet to make a single convincing argument as to why sales of A380 have stagnated the way they have. Every single argument of yours so far has been a "why airlines should order the A380" whilst ignoring the reality that nobody except EK wants more A380s.

I like a good discussion as much as most forumers here, please...enthrall me with something.
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Old July 31st, 2016, 05:10 PM   #8294
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If you look at the biggest Airline in Heathrow, who account for roughly half of seats, they are deliberately diverting traffic via Dublin nowadays rather than scaling planes.
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Old August 1st, 2016, 03:00 AM   #8295
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sponge_bob View Post
The 787 @ $29bn recognised is actually bigger right now but it will make a lot of that back from now on.
Citation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sponge_bob View Post
The biggest disaster was Concorde.
No, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the A380 program has lost a lot more money than the Concorde program.
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Old August 1st, 2016, 03:18 AM   #8296
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Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
Citation?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...787-747-tanker

"$28.7BN"

There are $3bn of extra 'tooling costs' in some calculations too.

However Boeing is accruing $0.2 - $0.25bn a month profit against this figure as they hoick frames out to customers. .
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Old August 1st, 2016, 06:09 AM   #8297
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Originally Posted by sponge_bob View Post
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...787-747-tanker

"$28.7BN"

There are $3bn of extra 'tooling costs' in some calculations too.

However Boeing is accruing $0.2 - $0.25bn a month profit against this figure as they hoick frames out to customers. .
"$28.7 billion in deferred production and inventory costs as of March 31."

That's not program losses. The 787 program hasn't lost anything close to that.
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Old August 5th, 2016, 02:53 PM   #8298
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Airbus A380 Customer Qantas Doesn’t Want the Last Eight on Order

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...eight-on-order
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Old August 5th, 2016, 04:25 PM   #8299
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Airbus A380 Customer Qantas Doesn’t Want the Last Eight on Order
That has been obvious for many years.

It's good that the airlines are finally cancelling officially the orders that they've been carrying on their books for years that everyone knew would never be eventuated.
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Old August 5th, 2016, 05:39 PM   #8300
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcarling View Post
That has been obvious for many years.

It's good that the airlines are finally cancelling officially the orders that they've been carrying on their books for years that everyone knew would never be eventuated.
I wonder when Virgin will officially cancel their order.
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