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Old August 5th, 2016, 07:21 PM   #8301
ddes
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That has been obvious for many years.

It's good that the airlines are finally cancelling officially the orders that they've been carrying on their books for years that everyone knew would never be eventuated.
To be honest, the Qantas cancellation is surprising to me. Qantas has a few routes that require the capacity of the A380 and they also happen to have some of the oldest A380s as well (which SQ is contemplating not renewing their leases). It would have been logical to take at least 3 of the 8 to replace the oldest A380s. I suppose since they have a JV with Emirates, it's better to have the A380s stick with Emirates.
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Old August 5th, 2016, 08:17 PM   #8302
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To be honest, the Qantas cancellation is surprising to me. Qantas has a few routes that require the capacity of the A380 and they also happen to have some of the oldest A380s as well (which SQ is contemplating not renewing their leases). It would have been logical to take at least 3 of the 8 to replace the oldest A380s. I suppose since they have a JV with Emirates, it's better to have the A380s stick with Emirates.
Yes, but you'd have to find someone to buy those old A380s...not very easy to do.
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Old August 5th, 2016, 10:00 PM   #8303
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Qantas has a few routes that require the capacity of the A380 ....
There are no routes which require the capacity of an A380. There are some routes which may be more profitable using the A380 than alternative aircraft. The A350-1100 and 777-9 will dramatically reduce that already small number -- perhaps to zero.
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Old August 6th, 2016, 08:53 AM   #8304
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Qantas is not cancelling their order, they are just delaying it into infinity. A bit like what Virgin has done.

If the program is still around when they need to replace the oldest A380s they might well take them after all.



I also don't think it will be difficult to sell used A380s, big plane, lot's of scrap metal.
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Old August 6th, 2016, 11:08 AM   #8305
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I also don't think it will be difficult to sell used A380s, big plane, lot's of scrap metal.
Umm . . .

At 277mT empty and assuming 100% of the weight can be converted into pure aluminum, that's only $477k at market prices—a far cry from the ~$300M list price for a new A380. Of course, there are a lot of parts that can be used as spares for other A380s but scrapping an airplane basically reduces its value to . . . scrap prices.
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Old August 7th, 2016, 05:49 AM   #8306
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At 277mT empty and assuming 100% of the weight can be converted into pure aluminum, that's only $477k at market prices—a far cry from the ~$300M list price for a new A380. Of course, there are a lot of parts that can be used as spares for other A380s but scrapping an airplane basically reduces its value to . . . scrap prices.
Yes, that's correct, but it looks like that will be the fate for the A380s coming off lease, starting next year.
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Old August 8th, 2016, 05:52 AM   #8307
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Qantas is not cancelling their order, they are just delaying it into infinity. A bit like what Virgin has done.
Virgin will never take their A380s on order. They've been pretty damn clear about it. The planes for Virgin will never be built, period.
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Old August 12th, 2016, 03:39 PM   #8308
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Only few haters of A380 are still on this thread. Pitty... for the best airplane ever build. Period.
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Old August 12th, 2016, 05:36 PM   #8309
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Only few haters of A380 are still on this thread.
Verrrrry few haters... But many pragmatists who can run a calculation or two. Make a business case if you can.
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Old August 12th, 2016, 06:38 PM   #8310
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Only few haters of A380 are still on this thread. Pitty... for the best airplane ever build. Period.
I love the plane and sincerely wished the economics of it were better. But the sad fact is that it just can't compete on a cost basis with aircraft like the 787 and A350 and certainly won't be able to compete with the 777X
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Old August 13th, 2016, 12:55 AM   #8311
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I like flying on the A380, but the business case for it was weak before the 787 and A350.
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Old August 13th, 2016, 12:58 AM   #8312
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MSN 1 F-WWOW back in the air to continue flight test for trent XWB97 :

AIB1109OW 12/8/2016 by A380_TLS_A350, sur Flickr
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Old August 13th, 2016, 01:43 AM   #8313
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the a350 engine looks larger than a380 engine
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Old August 13th, 2016, 01:51 AM   #8314
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I think the second hand market for an A380 will not have many takers, they will be expensive for C AND D checks,believe the figure for a B747 is $70 million, they will a lot higher.

Tbh I am not a fan of the A380, it is a not a pretty aircraft, does its job, but the production run is dependent on one airline, being Emirates, without their backing it is end of.
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Old August 13th, 2016, 01:53 AM   #8315
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A bit like what Virgin has done.
.
I think Virgin will replace with a350's
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Old August 13th, 2016, 06:20 AM   #8316
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the a350 engine looks larger than a380 engine
The A350's engines are larger (and heavier) than the A380's engines, but they are also 5-7% more fuel efficient, which is why Airbus was previously considering putting the A350's engines on the A380. Now, because the of the 777X, that upgrade would be too little, too late. The only way to make the A380 competitive now would be to replace both the engines and the wings with modern and efficient alternatives. It would cost only about $1-2B to replace the engines with those of the A350, but it would cost at least $5B and probably $7B to develop wings with a satisfactory weight and L/D ratio.
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Old August 13th, 2016, 08:10 AM   #8317
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The A350's engines are larger (and heavier) than the A380's engines, but they are also 5-7% more fuel efficient, which is why Airbus was previously considering putting the A350's engines on the A380. Now, because the of the 777X, that upgrade would be too little, too late. The only way to make the A380 competitive now would be to replace both the engines and the wings with modern and efficient alternatives. It would cost only about $1-2B to replace the engines with those of the A350, but it would cost at least $5B and probably $7B to develop wings with a satisfactory weight and L/D ratio.
It seems all but inevitable that Boeing will cease production of the 747-8 (after the new Air Force One planes are built), and shut down the 747 line around 2020 -when do you think that Airbus will cease production and shut down the A380 line? Sometime in the mid-2020s?
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Old August 13th, 2016, 12:21 PM   #8318
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It seems all but inevitable that Boeing will cease production of the 747-8 (after the new Air Force One planes are built), and shut down the 747 line around 2020 -when do you think that Airbus will cease production and shut down the A380 line? Sometime in the mid-2020s?
My guess is that A380 production will not go much past 2020.
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Old August 14th, 2016, 04:38 AM   #8319
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The A350's engines are larger (and heavier) than the A380's engines, but they are also 5-7% more fuel efficient, which is why Airbus was previously considering putting the A350's engines on the A380. Now, because the of the 777X, that upgrade would be too little, too late. The only way to make the A380 competitive now would be to replace both the engines and the wings with modern and efficient alternatives. It would cost only about $1-2B to replace the engines with those of the A350, but it would cost at least $5B and probably $7B to develop wings with a satisfactory weight and L/D ratio.
Even if wings could be redeveloped, I've read that the current wings are about 10m too short to be optimal length for the plane size and that they can't be lengthened anymore due to airport restrictions.

What, exactly, could they do to improve the wing design and why wasn't it done before?

Also, do you think an A350 engine variant tied with increased composite use in the airframe (A380 is only 20% vs over 50% for A350) and a slightly redesigned wing (optimizing the current design, not creating a new wing) could reach fuel efficiency levels with a reasonable cost?
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Old August 14th, 2016, 09:18 PM   #8320
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My guess is that A380 production will not go much past 2020.
And if Iran Air and/or Turkish Airlines goes through with their A380 purchases?
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