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Old August 28th, 2016, 04:35 PM   #8361
Danfer21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spam King View Post
These are the current orders on the books:

EMIRATES 142
SINGAPORE AIRLINES 24
AMEDEO 20
QANTAS AIRWAYS 20
LUFTHANSA 14
BRITISH AIRWAYS 12
AIR FRANCE 12
KOREAN AIR 10
QATAR AIRWAYS 10
UNDISCLOSED 10
ETIHAD AIRWAYS 10
THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL 6
MALAYSIA AIRLINES BERHAD 6
VIRGIN ATLANTIC 6
ASIANA AIRLINES 6
CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY 5
AIR ACCORD 3
ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS 3
what about Amedeo and Accord ?
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Old August 28th, 2016, 07:11 PM   #8362
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Air Accord is the (leasing) company that took over 3 of 4 of the Transearo orders, the other 1 was cancelled. It's unclear where they are from, probably Russia and what they want to do with this order.


Amedeo is a small leasing company, a spin off from the more respected Doric GmbH after a couple of Doric employees fell out with the Doric management. Amedeo manages a couple of "lease packages" which are listed on the London Stock Exchange. In these lease packages they have several A380s and 2 777s, all on lease to Emirates. In other words, it's a financing vehicle that enables anybody to invest in Aircraft leases.

It's a shady company as they also list A380s that are actually managed / owned (same kind of investment packages) by Doric Lease Corp. Initially the order was also announced as an order for Doric GmbH, but that the Amedeo owners using it's former company name Doric Lease Corp for their own endeavors. Doric has made it very clear that they are in no way involved with this speculative order for 20 A380s.

Not that surprisingly Amedeo has not found any customers for these 20 A380s. It's both difficult to lease out an A380 and I wouldn't be surprised if airlines are not fully trusting this company. Right from the start this order was considered by people in the know as speculative, now several years later there's absolutely no chance that these 20 will ever be delivered.

But the Amedeo owner, mr. Lapidus, is very positively outspoken about the A380, he sees chances everywhere. Like he was certain that he could place the A380 with Delta airlines and is now very positive about the chances of placing the A380 that come out of lease with new airlines. But so far non of his talk has turned into reality, other then the order with Airbus itself. I do think that Airbus did not do themselves a good favor by allowing this order. I also doubt that Amedeo has made any prepayments. Comparing this to how Airbus handled the Skymark order is very dubious. If it wasn't this large order with chances for a solution like the ANA order which is linked with the Skymark rescue package they would have canceled it already. But I doubt that Amedeo has any capital at all, Airbus cannot expect any penalty payments to be made by Amedeo. A cancellation of this order would by now have a large negative impact on the Airbus shares on the stock market. They are forced to keep it on their books, probably until the end or the A380 program of until real orders are actually picking up.
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Old August 29th, 2016, 03:14 AM   #8363
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Why would US carriers use A380 when they have airports as they have in USA?
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Old August 29th, 2016, 10:53 PM   #8364
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Why would US carriers use A380 when they have airports as they have in USA?
The reasons why US carriers might order the A380 are the same as the reasons in other countries: ego, bragging rights, compensating for something.
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Old August 30th, 2016, 06:12 AM   #8365
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It seems that everyone is disregarding the most important statement done regarding Airbus A380:

Quote:
"If they decide not to bring the Neo into play, we will buy more of the current A380," Clark told reporters on the sidelines of an Emirates news conference at which the airline announced a 56 percent rise in annual profit.

"As the first batch comes up to retirement we will want to replace those with more 380s ... If you replace over time it's a continuum of orders."

The superjumbo, which typically seats 544 passengers, has helped Emirates ease runway constraints at its Dubai hub, but Airbus plans to cut production due to weak sales.

Clark said Emirates could increase its A380 fleet to 200 when the airline moves to Dubai's second airport, although that switch is unlikely before 2023.

"Whether that's enough to persuade Airbus to keep the line going is up to them, they have got to sell more and are trying very hard to do that," said Clark.
http://www.reuters.com/article/emira...-idUSL5N18737Y
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Old August 30th, 2016, 08:44 AM   #8366
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Despite the always upbeat spin, even Clark is now acknowledging that Airbus may not keep the A380 line going.
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Old August 30th, 2016, 01:50 PM   #8367
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Originally Posted by mcarling View Post

Despite the always upbeat spin, even Clark is now acknowledging that Airbus may not keep the A380 line going.
And if Clark does order more he will need to take nearer 20 a year than the 12 that Airbus will produce...at a loss..in 2018 as announced this summer. It has to be a breakeven order to make some sense.
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Old August 31st, 2016, 06:07 AM   #8368
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The A380 Is Inevitable

Aug. 30, 2016 1:09 AM ET

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A crucial point to watch is what Singapore Airlines does when its oldest A380s come up for renewal on leases. We hear they will either renew these leases, or probably retire these early aircraft and order new A380s. The early aircraft were heavy and the latest versions are far more economically effective. Replacing the early models with the latest versions will provide the airline with an ability to drive competitors harder. Which is something the airline has always done.

The arrival of a number of pre-owned A380s into the market has its own ramifications. More on that below.

Besides all the airline talk, there is also an important argument in favor of the A380 made by Airbus. Airbus points out that air traffic doubles every 15 years. Airbus also notes that airports are not growing fast enough to accommodate more traffic. London Heathrow is the most cited example - 98% capacity and increasingly the place where more A380s are seen than anywhere else. With limited slots, airlines need to exploit their slots as effectively as possible. Which means using larger aircraft.

We believe A380s, and aircraft of its capacity, are inevitable. The demand for air travel keeps growing - regardless of terrorism, diseases and fuel price spikes. The potential within China alone is likely to see A380-sized aircraft demand for even regional flights.

Airfares have fallen in real terms. As global economic growth lift more people into the middle class, they want to travel. Moving all these people, with airport limits, requires larger aircraft. The talk of the demise of the A380 is premature.

Even as pundits like to take potshots at the A380, Airbus is working on improvements to the aircraft. We understand that engine tweaks, sharklets and aerodynamic cleanup could deliver an additional 5% improvement in economics. This means a potential additional 22 passengers between Dubai and Los Angeles, per flight, for example. This is worth millions of dollars per year. Dubai is the home base of Emirates, and Emirates has 140 A380s on order. They will take all of them and continue to disrupt the rest of the market.

Finally, the used A380s from Singapore can become extremely disruptive. Who might use such aircraft? One idea: consider which airline is best known for scooping up great value deals on pre-owned aircraft. (A pre-owned A380 from Singapore is likely to cost around $120m - 28% of the list price a new A380) That airline is Delta. True, its a long shot. But, consider what an A380 could do in the hands of a mega airline like Delta.

Don't dismiss the A380.
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Old September 1st, 2016, 04:05 AM   #8369
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Singapore Airlines ordered five A380s back in 2012 for the purpose of replacing their earliest A380s, so that is not news. No way anyone is going to pay $120M each for those old ones. The leasing companies which own them will be lucky to get $120M total for five of them.
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Old September 1st, 2016, 05:42 AM   #8370
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jam5 View Post
The A380 Is Inevitable

Aug. 30, 2016 1:09 AM ET
The article doesn't make any sense. The issue with the A380 is that it's too big and its CASM advantage over smaller planes isn't enough to offset its dramatically larger size, except in certain instances and routes (most obviously Emirates).

Quote:
Besides all the airline talk, there is also an important argument in favor of the A380 made by Airbus. Airbus points out that air traffic doubles every 15 years. Airbus also notes that airports are not growing fast enough to accommodate more traffic. London Heathrow is the most cited example - 98% capacity and increasingly the place where more A380s are seen than anywhere else. With limited slots, airlines need to exploit their slots as effectively as possible. Which means using larger aircraft.

We believe A380s, and aircraft of its capacity, are inevitable. The demand for air travel keeps growing - regardless of terrorism, diseases and fuel price spikes. The potential within China alone is likely to see A380-sized aircraft demand for even regional flights.

Airfares have fallen in real terms. As global economic growth lift more people into the middle class, they want to travel. Moving all these people, with airport limits, requires larger aircraft. The talk of the demise of the A380 is premature.
The A380 isn't the only big airplane in the world. Even at Heathrow, narrow bodies still make up 70% of all slots. As the cost of each slot increases, airlines will start operating incrementally larger airplanes, rather than go straight to the A380.

The China example also doesn't make sense. Just because China is what people think of as generically populated country that's developing doesn't mean it's unique. If you look at the busiest air corridors in the world, they're all relatively short distance and almost exclusively operated by narrow bodies. Even Japan's domestic 747s have been phased out in favor of smaller and more efficient airplanes.

Quote:
Even as pundits like to take potshots at the A380, Airbus is working on improvements to the aircraft. We understand that engine tweaks, sharklets and aerodynamic cleanup could deliver an additional 5% improvement in economics. This means a potential additional 22 passengers between Dubai and Los Angeles, per flight, for example. This is worth millions of dollars per year. Dubai is the home base of Emirates, and Emirates has 140 A380s on order. They will take all of them and continue to disrupt the rest of the market.
These improvements may be coming, but they're small changes, whereas big changes are coming to programs like the 777X and the larger A350s. Preliminary analysis indicates that the 777-9X is competitive with the A380 on a CASM basis.

This doesn't mean that the A380 will never sell again. It just means that the airplane is larger but no more efficient than the 777. Some airlines will still want that extra capacity rather than operating an extra plane, but there aren't that many routes in the world.

Quote:
Finally, the used A380s from Singapore can become extremely disruptive. Who might use such aircraft? One idea: consider which airline is best known for scooping up great value deals on pre-owned aircraft. (A pre-owned A380 from Singapore is likely to cost around $120m - 28% of the list price a new A380) That airline is Delta. True, its a long shot. But, consider what an A380 could do in the hands of a mega airline like Delta.
Delta, along with every single U.S. airline, has repeatedly declined to purchase the A380. Just because a few older airplanes were undervalued by their projections doesn't mean they'll gobble up all the airplanes that nobody else wants. If other airlines are choosing to not renew their lease for that specific A380, why would Delta find anything different?
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Old September 1st, 2016, 08:32 AM   #8371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SSMEX View Post
The China example also doesn't make sense. Just because China is what people think of as generically populated country that's developing doesn't mean it's unique. If you look at the busiest air corridors in the world, they're all relatively short distance and almost exclusively operated by narrow bodies. Even Japan's domestic 747s have been phased out in favor of smaller and more efficient airplanes.
I believe China example is debatable. The distance is at least four times bigger comparing to Japan: Beijing (PEK) - Shenzhen (SZX) is 1,212 mi/Shanghai (PVG) - Shenzhen (SZX) is 765 mi vs Tokyo (NRT) - Osaka (KIX) - 306 mi. Moreover, there are potential pax.

Given the demand growth, it's highly possible to see more A380 operating in China.
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Old September 1st, 2016, 09:57 AM   #8372
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Quote:
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I believe China example is debatable. The distance is at least four times bigger comparing to Japan: Beijing (PEK) - Shenzhen (SZX) is 1,212 mi/Shanghai (PVG) - Shenzhen (SZX) is 765 mi vs Tokyo (NRT) - Osaka (KIX) - 306 mi. Moreover, there are potential pax.

Given the demand growth, it's highly possible to see more A380 operating in China.
These routes are still too short for an aircraft with a 2 hour turnaround time.
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Old September 1st, 2016, 11:03 AM   #8373
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Given the demand growth, it's highly possible to see more A380 operating in China.
China has a massive high speed rail network. It costs less than flying does.

http://www.railjournal.com/index.php...f-traffic.html

Quote:
While HSR has experienced stronger growth than air transport, the two modes remain quite different in their features. In 2013, twice as many passengers travelled on CRH services (672 million) as domestic flights (327 million) and while domestic air traffic increased continuously at an average of 13% per year between 2008 and 2013, CRH growth has been substantially faster, averaging 39% per year. However, the average air trip was substantially longer at 1363km in 2012and is getting longer presumably as flights covering distances of less than 800km tend to be withdrawn when faced with high-speed rail competition.
So you need City Pairs over 1000km apart and with a pop of 10m+ each end to fill them A380s.
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Old September 1st, 2016, 06:14 PM   #8374
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If the A380neo does go ahead...

How feasible and costly would it be for Airbus to add another fuselage section and increase the length slightly to increase capacity? If they could add 20 more business class seats, for example, the economics of the plane could increase. To offset the increased weight they could increase the amount of composites used in the fuselage (the A380 uses about half as much as the A350). Could this work?
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Old September 1st, 2016, 06:20 PM   #8375
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Mcarling has made a very good case for a new folding wing/new engine neo ( once someone guarantees to pay for the minimum €5bn development cost with a decent sized order and assuming the A350-1000 engine would be the neo one)

I doubt a major fuselage rework would be cost efficient on top of that. Remember the entire exercise would be about not losing any more money on top of the c.€25bn lost to date.
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Old September 1st, 2016, 07:06 PM   #8376
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sponge_bob View Post
Mcarling has made a very good case for a new folding wing/new engine neo ( once someone guarantees to pay for the minimum €5bn development cost with a decent sized order and assuming the A350-1000 engine would be the neo one)

I doubt a major fuselage rework would be cost efficient on top of that. Remember the entire exercise would be about not losing any more money on top of the c.€25bn lost to date.
Oh, I know. I'm just curious about what else can be done to increase the A380s economics. I mean there isn't all that much that can be done:

- Increase capacity to increase revenue, but then you add on weight
- Decrease weight through more use of composites/light weight allows
- More efficient engines
- More efficient wing

I don't know what else...? Which ones of those would be most cost effective?
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Old September 1st, 2016, 07:31 PM   #8377
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I don't know what else...? Which ones of those would be most cost effective?
You have to do a wing/engine package at least so maybe a frame stretch or two is possible as well.

The new Beluga XL will have a 45m long 50 Ton capacity which may mean that it can carry 2 of these 'new' wings like it can carry 2 x A350 wings.

http://bloga350.blogspot.ie/2015/06/...-1m-wider.html

But it is a constraint.
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Old September 7th, 2016, 07:59 PM   #8378
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The reasons why US carriers might order the A380 are the same as the reasons in other countries: ego, bragging rights, compensating for something.
And also because they either need the capacity or they want to consolidate mutiple flights together. With the current list of US Air Carriers (and their current networks*) I don't see any of them ordering a plane bigger than a A350-1000/777-300ER/777-9X* in the near future. In fact the only chance a US carrier will ever operate a A380 would be if their is further consolidation among US Air Carriers (For example UA/AA), that way they would be able to consolidate flights at shared hubs (Such as in New York or Los Angeles) to bring about some of the savings such a merger would bring. Which in turn might mean that some flights might end up needing an A380 to meet demand.

*Due the fact the likes of United, American and Delta have mutiple hubs which they can funnel passengers (O&D or connecting) to lets say Tokyo, Sao Paulo or London, they have less of a need for an A380. European Airlines such as BA or even Lufthansa do not have this advantage since they are funnling their passengers to New York, Tokyo, Sao Paulo though 1-2 hubs.

**Although to be fair, American already operates the 777-300ER and United will soon operate both both the 777-300ER and A350-1000 (while they already operate the 747-400). Likewise Delta might end up ordering the A350-1000 in the future (although it is replacing their 747-400s with A350-900s)
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Old September 12th, 2016, 04:04 PM   #8379
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Malaysian wants rid quick.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...nese-operators

No surprise as LHR returns are available widely as low as €400 just to fill them
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Old September 13th, 2016, 05:54 AM   #8380
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United will soon operate both both the 777-300ER and A350-1000 (while they already operate the 747-400).
United bought their 747s for the range not for the capacity. As soon as smaller widebodies became available with the 747's range, United (and most other airlines) stopped buying them. When Boeing surveyed their 747 customers, 60% bought them for their range, 10% bought them for their capacity, and 30% bought some for range and some for capacity.
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