Population Statistics Thread

[crawf]

After all those years of Adelaide sitting on 1.1 million and just recently hitting the 1.2 mark, we have jumped straight ahead to 1.3 million. Wow

Originally Posted by Danubis

How ridiculous, esk is in the bloody sticks, you'ld be better off counting it as part of toowoomba.

Same thing goes for Woodside and Gumeracha in the Adelaide Hills, Mount Barker is growing a rapid rate and now feels more like an outer suburb of Adelaide.

As a consequence the new view of Adelaide extends the metropolitan area east into the hills district so that the city now includes the towns of Gumeracha, Woodside and Mt Barker. So defined, Adelaide's population jumps by about 56,000 to 1.3 million.

[jarden]

To sum up now with the latest we got:
SYD 4.6
MEL 4.1
BNE 2.1
PER 1.8
ADL 1.3

[Bullswool]

Perth should easily hit the 2m mark this decade Wonder if Sydney can crack the 5m mark?

[Mornnb]

Definitely, Sydney has been growing at 75k a year so should hit 5 million by 2017.
Melbourne has been growing at 79k, and should be 4.5 million by then.

[motion]

Originally Posted by Mornnb

Definitely, Sydney has been growing at 75k a year so should hit 5 million by 2017.
Melbourne has been growing at 79k, and should be 4.5 million by then.

there are 110,000 babies being born in NSW every year which dwarfs every other state, add overseas migration, add interstate migration i find it very difficult to fathom how it is possible that NSW/Sydney only grew 'x' amount?
I watched on the 7.30 program on ABC a segment on the incredible rate of births in NSW compared to other states. They said the births in NSW doubled the next highest rate of birth in another state and have been doing so for years.

Even if you factor emigration how is possible that for example in 2007 sydney grew by 33,000 people? I might have got my numbers and dates mixed but principle remains the same.

I am not an expert so can somebody please explain this to me. The ONLY thing i can think of is a MASS interstate/overseas exodus which i find difficult to believe in a first world country OR a regional exodus, which i also find difficult to believe; however more likely that the former.

[Mornnb]

Originally Posted by motion

I am not an expert so can somebody please explain this to me. The ONLY thing i can think of is a MASS interstate/overseas exodus which i find difficult to believe in a first world country OR a regional exodus, which i also find difficult to believe; however more likely that the former.

Yes, it's interstate migration, which accounts for about 45k a year, to Queensland and Victoria mainly. Part of this is that Sydney is the gateway city for international immigrants, who then might move else where. But the housing shortage in Sydney and expensive real estate is a major problem and is choking the city. I hope Barry O'Farrell does everything possible to get construction up, because this is by far the biggest problem Sydney has.

[motion]

Originally Posted by Mornnb

Yes, it's interstate migration, which accounts for about 45k a year, to Queensland and Victoria mainly. Part of this is that Sydney is the gateway city for international immigrants, who then might move else where. But the housing shortage in Sydney and expensive real estate is a major problem and is choking the city. I hope Barry O'Farrell does everything possible to get construction up, because this is by far the biggest problem Sydney has.

There is a misconception that sydney is so expensive and the rest of australia's cities will save us. Bullshit They are all similarly priced. Its really not any cheaper to move interstate at all maybe save 50 dollars a week. I found Canberra a lot more expensive than sydney and i found GC more expensive too and Melb prices seemed exactly the same as sydneys. I do not know about perth or adelaide.

[Mornnb]

Most people leaving NSW are heading up to Queensland, where it is actually cheaper. Here are the average house prices for the capital cities.
Sydney $605,000
Melbourne $557,750
Canberra $560,000
Perth $487,000
Brisbane $459,000
Adelaide $405,000

To many people, when you get around to having kids, or a second kids, a need a larger place, Brisbane can look more attractive than heading out to remote and more affordable western Sydney. For the same price, you can get something closer to a decent CBD, in any event both options are like exile.
To show the supply and demand situation in Sydney, take a look at the residential vacancy rate compared to Melbourne. Note in Sydney it's uniformly low even in fringe suburbs.
CBD 2%
Western Sydney 1.7%
Eastern suburbs 2.3%
North West Hills District 2.4%
South West 1.2%

CBD 5.1%
Western Melbourne 26.4%,
North Melbourne 4.2%
South West Mebourne 8.3%
Eastern Melbourne 3.4%
Inner East Melbourne 4.2%

And the reason? Housing construction. For 2011 Q3 the figures for new houses stood at 6696 in NSW, 14684 in Victoria!
In Sydney, housing construction is just not keeping up with population growth, and this is slowing the cities growth.

[redbaron_012]

Queensland is great...except for the climate ? I don't know how anyone puts up with humidity ? If its cold you put more clothes on.........speedos are great but you can't get away from humidity. Life indoors in airconditioning, like the Dubai maybe ?

[Arreis]

Except Toowoomba. We get the best of both worlds. Cooler climate with lower humidity and it's only 1 1/2 hours to Brisbane and 2 hours easy drive to the GC. I havent spent much time in Melbourne but i think Toowoombas climate is closer to Melbournes climate than Brisbanes.

[Dimethyltryptamine]

Originally Posted by redbaron_012

Queensland is great...except for the climate ? I don't know how anyone puts up with humidity ? If its cold you put more clothes on.........speedos are great but you can't get away from humidity. Life indoors in airconditioning, like the Dubai maybe ?

It's worse than Sydney and Melbourne, obviously, but it's not that bad.

[Mornnb]

It's not that much worse than Sydney which also gets much humidity. If you're from hotter western Sydney you probably won't notice a difference.

[AndyGM]

Originally Posted by motion

there are 110,000 babies being born in NSW every year which dwarfs every other state, add overseas migration, add interstate migration i find it very difficult to fathom how it is possible that NSW/Sydney only grew 'x' amount?
I watched on the 7.30 program on ABC a segment on the incredible rate of births in NSW compared to other states. They said the births in NSW doubled the next highest rate of birth in another state and have been doing so for years.

Even if you factor emigration how is possible that for example in 2007 sydney grew by 33,000 people? I might have got my numbers and dates mixed but principle remains the same.

I am not an expert so can somebody please explain this to me. The ONLY thing i can think of is a MASS interstate/overseas exodus which i find difficult to believe in a first world country OR a regional exodus, which i also find difficult to believe; however more likely that the former.

If your information doesn't make sense, chances are that at least part of it is wrong.

A quick look at the ABS population growth stats here shows that NSW has a birth rate roughly the same as the national average (1.92 vs 1.87 nationally) so whatever information they were using in the ABC report was wrong.

[Orfeo]

Originally Posted by motion

there are 110,000 babies being born in NSW every year which dwarfs every other state, add overseas migration, add interstate migration i find it very difficult to fathom how it is possible that NSW/Sydney only grew 'x' amount?
I watched on the 7.30 program on ABC a segment on the incredible rate of births in NSW compared to other states. They said the births in NSW doubled the next highest rate of birth in another state and have been doing so for years.

as others have said, your figures are wrong - partially because you've rounded up but also because you're using them incorrectly.

Number of babies in NSW isn't 110k per year - it's has never been that high, never exceeding 95k in the last 5 years. in 2010 it was 92k

but this figure is not the same as growth, since you need to take out deaths too which NSW tends to lose more out of as it has an older population than other states: actual natural increase is only 44k. Unsuprisingly, this is more than other states but it's really that that larger than Vic (32k) and Qld (35k). As a percent, it's just below the national average and 5th of the states/territories.

With oversease migration, NSW is on top but barely: 51k in 2010 in comparison with 48K for Victoria.

NSW is the only state with a large emigration figure, at 11K loss in 2010.

[RocStar]

Hundreds of thousands more than forecast
Beatrice Thomas, The West Australian Updated February 15, 2012, 2:30 am


WA expected to grow by 750,000 people to 3.06 million by 2026

Perth is set for a population explosion, prompting calls for a major re-think of planning policies and infrastructure investment in the next 14 years.

Latest population forecasts released yesterday in the report WA Tomorrow, show the State was expected to grow by 750,000 people to 3.06 million by 2026 - about 450,000 higher than estimated in 2006.

The Perth and Peel regions will grow by about 650,000 people - the equivalent of almost nine Mandurahs - to 2.4 million as it outstripped estimates in State planning policy Directions 2031 by about five years.

Significantly, though it took from 1971 to 2006 for WA to grow by one million people, the next one million will likely take only 20 years.

Experts believe the growth will put great pressure on Perth's public transport, drive up electricity bills and fuel demand for more schools and teachers.

Speaking at a Committee for Economic Development Australia lunch, Planning Minister John Day said the new forecasts were based on an expectation of continued economic prosperity, as well as higher fertility and overseas migration rates.

He said the data, which included varying rates of growth, highlighted the need for major city projects such as City Link, the Perth waterfront and Riverside. It also showed there was a need for further urban consolidation, a diversity of housing and an efficient planning approvals system, he said.

Although it would be a challenge to "bring along the wider community", he also singled out local councils, saying those not prepared to make modest changes to facilitate infill development would find the changes "will be made for them".

Planning Institute of WA president Charles Johnson said the forecasts had major implications for infrastructure planning in some councils and he called on State plans such as the 20-year public transport strategy to be brought forward.

Committee for Perth chief executive Marion Fulker said the higher growth rates, which her organisation predicted in its own report last November, should be a wake-up call.

"It's not all going to trickle in month by month, week by week," she said. "Overall, Perth is going to be a bigger city and other than Directions 2031 and the transport plan, there doesn't seem to be this whole-of-government sense that we are growing and we're growing quickly."

Mr Day said Perth had sufficient land zoned for development and the State's 47 per cent infill target was sufficient, though new dwelling targets for each local government area may be reviewed.

However, Property Council of WA executive director Joe Lenzo said to achieve this, the Government had to ensure infrastructure was in place for greenfield development, and all local councils needed to support urban infill.

Shadow planning minister Peter Tinley said the population explosion would stretch power, water and housing resources.

www.thewest.com.au

[Bullswool]

*WA will be 3m. Perth will be about 2.5m by then according to that report.

[RocStar]

*Yeah. Perth should hit the 2 mil mark within the next few years.

[Urbania]

Originally Posted by RocStar

Although it would be a challenge to "bring along the wider community", he also singled out local councils, saying those not prepared to make modest changes to facilitate infill development would find the changes "will be made for them".

That's what I like to hear!

[mobus]

Australia's population will grow at a rate of 1.7 per cent to reach 28.5 million by 2025, so it will be extremely close to 30 million by around 2029-2030.

[StreetX]

http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3222.0

has some good info about population now, and projections in the future from 2007 - 2026 - 2056 and 2101

from the graph on the page