India - Trade Thread

[murlee]

Exports up 57 % at $25.94 b in May

Exports registered an impressive 56.9 per cent growth at $25.94 billion in May as compared to $16.53 billion in May 2010, while exports grew by 45.3 per cent at $49.70 billion in the first two months of the current fiscal against $34.27 billion in the same months in the previous year.

However, imports too registered a 54 per cent growth at $40.91 billion in May against $26.55 billion in May 2010, the highest growth rate in the last four years, thus putting the trade deficit at $14.97 billion ($10.02 billion in May 2010). In the first two months of 2011-12, imports were up 33.3 per cent at $73.74 billion ($55.32 billion) while the trade deficit stood at $23.9 billion ($21.05 billion).

In the first two months of the current fiscal, sectors which registered healthy export growth include engineering 115 per cent, electronics 80 per cent, drugs 68 per cent, petroleum 64 per cent, gems and jewellery 23 per cent, ready made garments 31 per cent, chemicals 44 per cent and leather 21 per cent.

However, few segments like tobacco, iron ore and fruits and vegetables recorded a negative growth.

Similarly, during April-May 2011, imports of electronic goods increased by 61 per cent, chemicals by 9.6 per cent, coal by 19 per cent, transport equipment by 32.7 per cent, ores and scraps by 22 per cent and vegetable oil by 35 per cent. In a statement, Federation of Indian Export Organisations President Ramu S. Deora said: “This is a sign of robust scenario...coupled with effective government initiative.” Though the government has not set an export target for the current fiscal, but industry experts say $300 billion exports could be achieved.

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Ind...cle2151063.ece

[LovishBoy]

export up 45% in june, anybody plz post the article.

[SSCaddict]

Exports jump 46% to $29.2 bn in June

Helped by an impressive 46.4% rise in June, exports grew by a hefty 45.7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal despite uncertainties in the US and European markets.

The merchandise exports aggregated $29.2 billion in June, showing 46.4% growth year-on-year.

During April-June quarter, the shipments grew by 45.7% to $79 billion.

"Exports are steady. They are growing satisfactorily," Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma told reporters here after the release of trade data.

Though most of the sectors posted robust expansion, be it petroleum products, ready-made garments, engineering or pharmaceuticals, Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar cautioned saying that news from the largest two markets-- the US and Europe -- "is far from cheerful...Summer is not over.It is still not going to be easy".

The US and Europe together account for about 35% of the country's exports, which stood at $246 billion in 2010-11.

Sharma is looking 25% growth annually so that exports touch $500 billion in 2013-14.

Imports too increased by 36.2% to $110.6 billion, led by $30.5 billion petroleum products, in April-June quarter

Though imports grew by 42.4% to $36.9 billion in June, the trade deficit of $7.7 billion was almost half of $14.9 billion in May, lessening concerns over the country's balance of payment situation.

"Higher imports growth reflects that industry is using imports to fulfill domestic demand," Ficci Secretary General Rajiv Kumar said.

Exports going nuts. Seriously at this pace we will easily cross $350 billion

[think-tank]

FTAs are going to boost trade even more, hope we beat Japanese exports in the next 5 years.

[sixsigma1978]

India ranked 10th in services export worldwide: Report

India achieved 10th rank in export of services worldwide, while emerged as the 20th biggest merchandise exporter in 2010, according to a latest WTO report.
In 2009, the country stood at the 12th and 22nd position globally in services and goods exports, respectively.

In value terms last year, India exported services and merchandise worth USD 110 billion and USD 216 billion respectively, the 'World Trade Report 2011' said.
India's goods exports went up by 31% in 2010, helping the country to expand its market share to 1.4% from 1.2% in 2009.
According to industry experts, increasing demand for Indian goods in new markets like Latin America and Africa are helping in boosting the country's exports.

"This (improvement in India's ranking) is because our exports are doing reasonably well in new markets like Latin America, Middle East and other Asian markets. We are focusing on these markets," CRISIL Principal Economist D K Joshi said.
Apex exporters body FIEO said that the diversification of India's exports basket are also helping in increasing the shipments.
"Slowly, India's rank is going to increase...," Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ramu Deora said.
Engineering and petroleum exports contribute about 40% in the total exports. "Earlier, there contribution was low," Deora said.
New Delhi's services exports share in the world exports increased to 3% in 2010 from 2.6% in 2009.

Further the report said, globally China ranked first in terms of merchandise exports followed by the US and Germany. In services export, the US is on the top slot followed by Germany and UK.

Source : http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cur...rt_567778.html

[think-tank]

India, Japan implement economic pact; aim to double trade

NEW DELHI: India and Japan Monday implemented a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), aiming to provide greater access to each other's markets and almost double the bilateral trade by 2014.

The two countries had signed the CEPA Feb 16 in Tokyo and diplomatic notes were exchanged June 30.

"We have no doubt in our minds that this will usher in a new era of economic engagement, which will bring development, innovation and prosperity in both societies," Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma said in a statement.

The deal would allow India to use Japanese investments, technology and management practices.

"Japan can take advantage of India's huge and growing market and resources, especially its human resource," the statement said.

Japan has scrapped import duties on 87 percent of goods that it imports from India with immediate effect while India has dropped tariffs on 17.4 percent of goods that it imports from Japan.

"Tariffs will be brought to zero percent in 10 years on 66.32 percent of tariff lines to give sufficient time to industry to adjust to the trade liberalisation," the statement said.

Current bilateral trade between India and Japan is around $12.6 bn. It is expected to touch $25 bn by 2014.

"We expect that CEPA will be instrumental in significantly raising India's current modest share of one percent in Japan's total trade. This will help expand our bilateral trade to $25 bn by 2014," said Rajiv Kumar, secretary general of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).

With the implementation of the agreement, India is likely to gain greater market access in Japan for various sectors including textiles and garments, pharmaceuticals, marine products, tea, jewellery and organic and inorganic chemicals.

Currently India accounts for just over one percent of Japan's textiles and garments imports worth $33 bn, while pharmaceuticals from India constitute a miniscule 0.09 percent of Japan's $16 bn-plus import market, the FICCI secretary general said adding that "with Japan's tariff set to become zero or substantially reduced for our exports, we can do far better".

Describing the comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) as a major step in deepening trade ties, Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said the agreement was in line with India's larger vision of an East Asia partnership.

This is India's third CEPA after Singapore and South Korea. It covers more than 90 percent of trade, a vast gamut of services, investment, intellectual property rights (IPR), customs and other trade-related issues.

Reacting to the agreement, Assocham secretary general D.S. Rawat said the lowering of trade barriers would reduce prices of imported products in both the countries that will ultimately benefit consumers.

The major benefits of the agreement would go to the sectors like telecom, finance, automobiles and pharmaceuticals, he said.

source

[MeMumbaikar]

[sixsigma1978]

Japan has scrapped import duties on 87 percent of goods that it imports from India with immediate effect while India has dropped tariffs on 17.4 percent of goods that it imports from Japan.

Not that I'm complaining, but anyone know Why is it that the Japanese are dropping 84% of their tarriffed goods from India while we dropped 17.4% of imports from Japan? Was the current trade regime heavily in favor of Japanese Protectionism and hence they're dropping more to equalize their share with India's? Or is it something else?

[think-tank]

Originally Posted by sixsigma1978

Not that I'm complaining, but anyone know Why is it that the Japanese are dropping 84% of their tarriffed goods from India while we dropped 17.4% of imports from Japan? Was the current trade regime heavily in favor of Japanese Protectionism and hence they're dropping more to equalize their share with India's? Or is it something else?

Depends on what's being imported, we don't export heavy machinery and electronic equipments to Japan do we? In any case clearing of tariffs require clearances, it's a bit slow process in India.

[SSCaddict]

Exports to touch $300 bn in FY12: Anand Sharma

Despite the slowdown in the world economy, the government has set a target of $300 billion for exports this fiscal year.

"In the first quarter [FY12], we have achieved exports of $108 billion and we are hopeful of achieving exports of $300 billion in the current fiscal, as against $246 billion last fiscal," Minister for Commerce & Industry and Textiles Anand Sharma told reporters on the sidelines of first International Conference on Technical Textiles - TECHNOTEX.

Sharma said, however, that crisis in the world economy is severe and demand in Europe and America is weak as slow recovery, sovereign debt crises remain major concerns.

The minister also said that the Technology Upgradation Funds Scheme (TUFS) that provides Plan support for textiles through interest reimbursement and capital subsidy, will be extended during the 12th Plan period as well.

On 'National Manufacturing Policy', which aims to raise contribution of the sector in GDP from 16 per cent to 26 per cent by 2025, creating 200 million jobs, Sharma said the Cabinet will soon take it up for consideration.

On inflation, Sharma said he is confident that it will come down following good rainfall in August, which is expected to boost crop production.

[think-tank]

July exports jump 82% year-on-year

The country's exports in July rose an annual 82% to $29.3 billion, while imports for the month rose 51.5% to $40.4 billion, government data showed on Thursday.

India's trade deficit in July stood at $11.1 billion, it said, while oil imports rose 37.02% from a year ago to $11.45 billion.

India's exports grew a record 37.6% in the 2010-11 fiscal year that ended in March, but last month Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar said that India "would be lucky" to achieve 20% annual exports growth in the current financial year.

Khullar also warned growth in exports is expected to slow down from August-September.

source

[SSCaddict]

exports still strong.For August:

1) Exports up 44% at $ 24.3 billion.

2) Imports up 41% at $ 38.4 billion

3) Trade deficit at $ 14.1 billion

[think-tank]

$82.8 bn exports since June 2011. At this rate we can easily cross $320bn by the end of this fiscal.

[SSCaddict]

for 5 months in this fiscal we have reached $ 133 billion, which means that we will easily reach $300-$310 billion.

[MeMumbaikar]

hardly

exports are down from 29 billion in July to 24 in August. (18% fall month on month) Expect them to fall below 21 for the next month and drop to about 16-18 a month by the end of this fiscal.


If anything the fact that the imports have held up much better than exports is extremely worrying news.

It mean our deficit is going to be big.

[SSCaddict]

$18 billion will mean de growth YOY which is not at all possible since demand is still strong from China, Latin America and Africa. Even software exporters don't see slowdown this fiscal. At the minimum exports will touch $20 billion a month.

[MeMumbaikar]

well in any case do the math yourself

24 billion exports in August 5 months into a fiscal.

If exports reach 20 billion as they should then your looking at an export target of 270-285 which was my original target for this fiscal.

[think-tank]

Why would exports go down without any warning?fall in exports shouldn't be taken as an indicator unless it happens over a period of time. There will always be fluctuations, certain exports like automobiles and serviceable machinery is exported on specific dates so you'll see big change in the numbers.

[MeMumbaikar]

Originally Posted by think-tank

Why would exports go down without any warning?fall in exports shouldn't be taken as an indicator unless it happens over a period of time. There will always be fluctuations, certain exports like automobiles and serviceable machinery is exported on specific dates so you'll see big change in the numbers.

its a global slowdown

and people like Rahul Khullar have been warning us about it for quite some time now. Infact many global banks have been warning about it as well.

Its not unexpected.

Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said merchandise shipments in August looked quite good, compared to the same month in 2010-11. However, he said the right approach would be to compare the August performance with that of July when exports had registered a steep increase of 82 per cent. Mr. Khullar said sequentially, shipments were down 17 per cent in August when compared to July. The good annualised showing was on the back of a low-base of comparison. This situation was worrisome and the government should formulate a stimulus package well in time to counter any adverse impact, he added.

During April-August 2011-12, exports have put up a robust annualised growth of 54.2 per cent at $134.5 billion. In the same period, imports expanded by 40.4 per cent to $189.4 billion, while the trade gap stood at $54.9 billion.

“Until now, we have had a good run but we are looking at the difficult times down the road. Advising the Finance Ministry for a package for exporters well in time, he said: “If you want to prevent them, then you better kick in now. The confidence in the U.S. and Europe has deteriorated after June,'' he said.

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Eco...cle2439609.ece

[MeMumbaikar]

Commenting on the data, Federation of Indian Export Organisations President Ramu S. Deora said exporters might have to see a decline in growth in the third and fourth quarters due to problems in the advanced economies. “This also indicates that the pace of global recovery has been slowing down in 2011,'' he added. The stimulus given by the developed countries disappeared since the middle of 2010, and now the fundamental weakness in the recovery process in the developed economies was visible, he added.

From the article above.


Posted it separately cause wanted to emphasise this point.


I think everybody expected a decline in exports. However there was some debate that imports would also fall. Opposing side said that imports would hold firm, which sadly appears to be the case.

We seem to be on course for running a deficit of $140-$150 billion, which is extremely scary news. Alram bells should be ringing in GOI. Our high trade deficit is going to be a train wreck if not kept in check.