Japan Economy & Business 日本経済とビジネス

[drwho]

Japan growth 'may reach 3 p.c.'


TOKYO, Japan (Reuters) -- Japan's economy will probably have grown more strongly than government forecasts in the business year that ended in March, Economics and Financial Services Minister Heizo Takenaka said on Sunday.

But he reiterated authorities will continue to intervene to prevent undesirable sudden moves in foreign exchange rates if they threaten to derail the economic rebound.

"The government's scenario calls for about 2 percent growth in the year," Takenaka said on TV Asahi's Sunday Project discussion program.

"But it will clearly exceed that."

When asked if growth could reach 3 percent, he said this was "possible."

In the previous fiscal year, which ended in March 2003, the economy grew 1.6 percent.

Japan's economy is showing real signs of a recovery from a decade of slowness, helped by strong exports to fast-growing neighbor China that are boosting business investment and company profits.

The economy grew at its fastest rate in 13 years in the last three months of 2003, and the momentum has carried on into the current year, spreading beyond exporters to smaller companies and consumer spending, the largest part of the economy.

The Bank of Japan's closely watched "tankan" corporate sentiment survey last week showed more companies felt better about business conditions than at any time in the last seven years.

"Companies' cash is not just going to repaying debts, but is going to investment," Takenaka said.

"And it is going into wages, which should boost spending."

He added that banks were making progress in cleaning up bank loans and returning to health, and noted that foreign investors' appetite for Japanese stocks was proof of the recovery.

"Foreign investors are starting to judge the trend (in the recovery) to be firm, not a one-off," he said.

However Takenaka reiterated that the yen's strength remained a concern, and repeated the government's view that instability in foreign exchange markets was not desirable.

"Exchange rates are determined by the markets," he said. "We will continue to intervene to prevent sudden movements when there is a danger of that."

The Japanese currency reached around ¥103.50 to the U.S. dollar last week, its highest in four years.

But the dollar recovered to around ¥104.50 on Friday after a bigger-than-expected jump in March U.S. non-farm payrolls data raised optimism over U.S. economic growth.

Japan's controversial foreign exchange intervention totalled more than ¥15 trillion ($144.6 billion) in just the first three months of this year, compared with a record ¥20 trillion in all of 2003.

Takenaka said that some strength in the yen was unavoidable because foreign investors were buying Japanese assets, increasing demand for the yen.

"The issue though is not allowing exchange rate changes to be too sudden," he said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS...omy/index.html

[drwho]

Japan Showing Signs That Recovery May Last
By TODD ZAUN

Published: April 8, 2004



TOKYO, April 7 - A string of upbeat economic indicators is powering a rally in Japanese stocks, making Tokyo one of the best-performing major markets this year. And this time, there are glints that the forces driving the upswing are here to stay.

A fledgling recovery in domestic demand, some early signs of a more vibrant real estate market and healthier banks are erasing doubts about the fundamental strength of the economy. At the same time, the prospects for robust corporate earnings are good, as big manufacturers ride a wave of strong exports.



In a sign of the growing confidence in Japan's recovery, Moody's Investors Service raised its credit rating Wednesday on Japan's foreign currency government bonds to its highest grade.

While the Dow Jones industrial average in the United States has risen just 1.1 percent so far this year, its Japanese counterpart, the Nikkei 225 stock average, has gained 12.6 percent. The gain comes after the Nikkei rose 23 percent last year. This week, Japan's benchmark index rose above the 12,000 for the first time in more than two and a half years. The Nikkei slipped 60.08 points, or 0.5 percent, to close at 12,019.62 on Wednesday.

As in the past, the rally has been driven in large part by a recovery in exports that has been lifting shares of electronics, machinery and auto companies.

But the upturn has also been fed by growing confidence that the end may finally be in sight to the worst of the troubles that have plagued Japanese companies for a decade, including a moribund real estate market and a financial system buried in bad loans.

"Japan is becoming a normal economy again after a decade of deflationary distress," says Richard Jerram, an economist at ING in Tokyo.

Real estate stocks, like Mitsubishi Estate and Mitsui Fudosan, have been among the biggest gainers so far this year on expectations that property prices may rebound after a long slide. A government report last month said that while nationwide real estate prices fell for the 13th straight year in 2003, there were modest recoveries in parts of Tokyo, like the upscale Omotesando shopping district.

"I don't think the current trend will continue," Takeshi Fukuzawa, chairman of the Mitsubishi Estate Company, said of the falling prices. "There are regions where prices are already rising."

Since the Nikkei's plunge from its peak of 38,916 at the end of 1989, losing nearly half its value over the next year, the market has been in near continual decline. Investors in Japanese shares have witnessed just two sustained market rallies over the last 15 years. The first, in 1995, lasted for about a year, and the second, begun in late 1998, carried into early 2000. Both rallies were driven by export profits, and both fizzled when demand at home failed to materialize.

Many investors expect the latest stock rally to have more staying power precisely because of some recovery in consumer demand. Japan's economy grew at a 6.4 percent annual clip in the final quarter of 2003, the fastest pace in more than a decade, driven in part by a 0.9 percent increase in private consumption from the previous quarter. In February, spending by Japanese households rose for the fourth consecutive month.

And after a decade of mostly tough times, companies have trimmed payrolls and cut inefficient operations to levels where they can more easily achieve solid profits, said Toru Ohara, who manages a $3 billion Japanese stock fund as the chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Investments Japan.

"Japanese corporations have changed and the stock market has changed," he said. "After falling for 15 years, I think the market has only just begun to rise."

Mr. Ohara said that despite strong profit growth, shares of Toyota Motor and other top Japanese companies were held back in the past because of broader worries about Japan itself. He expected those shares to rise now that troubles in the financial system and real estate market seemed to be clearing.

To be sure, some analysts say it is by no means sure that the strong recoveries in economic output and share prices will continue for long. One nagging concern is that even though companies are making more money, so far they are not paying their workers more.

"The question is whether wage incomes will improve enough to drive a sustainable consumption recovery," said Robert A. Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Japan. "I'm still skeptical."

Still, many analysts and investors say they do not expect the corporate earnings reports in the next weeks to dampen enthusiasm for stocks. Japanese companies are expected to report robust profit growth for the fiscal year ended March 31, thanks to both strong exports and improving sales at home. Toyota, Nissan Motor and other automakers are forecast to report record profits, after increasing their shares of the crucial North American market.

Smaller companies, too, are expected to post healthy earnings. The watchmaker Seiko, for example, on Wednesday raised its profit estimate for the fiscal year ended March 31, citing strong sales in Europe and Asia. And analysts say that profits at retailers, hurt for years by falling prices, will grow as consumer spending picks up and deflation eases.

"Japan's economy is getting firmer, both in terms of fundamentals and in the performance of the corporate sector," Heizo Takenaka, the economic and financial services minister, told reporters this week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/bu...partner=GOOGLE

[huaiwei]

I notice you are starting local versions of these threads all over! Great job!

[drwho]

Originally Posted by huaiwei

I notice you are starting local versions of these threads all over! Great job!

thnxs..Japan-forum needs some postings

[huaiwei]

Yeap....thanks for helping out! (I just did something to is too...hehehe)

[drwho]

Japan's leading retailers post robust profits
By Financial Times reporters
Published: April 8 2004 12:08 | Last Updated: April 8 2004 12:08


Ito-Yokado, one of Japan's largest retailers, said on Thursday profits jumped 15 per cent last year on robust performance at its convenience store unit, signalling a long-awaited pickup in Japan's consumer spending.


Ito-Yokado said group net profits rose to Y53.6bn ($505m) last year from Y46.6bn a year ago, as revenue rose 3.2 per cent to Y207.8bn. It expects net profits to rise another 16 per cent in the current fiscal year to reach Y62bn.

Convenience store operator Seven Eleven Japan, 51 per cent owned by Ito-Yokado, announced also on Thursday that net profits rose 12.4 per cent to Y93bn on bigger profit margins and strong take-out food business.

The strong results come a day after Aeon, which this year surpassed Ito-Yokado to become Japan's largest retailer by sales, reported a 8 per cent rise in earnings, adding to signs that a broad recovery is underway in Japan's retail sector, which had been depressed by sluggish consumer spending and deflation.

The sector's shares have soared in the past month after recent data showed a recovery in consumption. The robust retail sector boosted Tokyo stocks on Thursday to their highest levels since August 2001.

Ito-Yokado's shares have surged 40 per cent since early February and ended up 5 per cent to Y4960 on Thursday. Seven Eleven Japan's shares rose 1.3 per cent on Thursday to Y3930 having rising 25 per cent since February.

[Vapour]

Good news

[drwho]

Vapour:yeap!

[drwho]

Japanese exports rise in March, recovery on track
Reuters
Tokyo, April 21

Japan's exports rose in March, thanks to continued strong demand from China, lifting Japan's trade surplus and adding fuel to an economic recovery, government figures showed on Wednesday.

Exports rose 1.3 per cent in March from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis for a 13.3 per cent gain from a year earlier, led by robust demand for automobiles, semiconductors and steel products, notably from China.

The trade surplus fell 14.7 per cent from a month earlier but was still up 17.8 per cent from a year earlier. The year-on-year rise was smaller than a consensus forecast of 33 per cent, due mainly to stronger-than-expected imports.

Imports were up 6.5 per cent from a month earlier and up 12.2 per cent from a year earlier.

The figures further confirm that Japan's recovery is on track, following other recent data that showed it spreading to smaller companies that benefit less from exports and to consumers, who have shown signs of spending more.

"If anything, the surplus is a bit lower than expected, mainly because imports seem to be finally picking up, and rising imports might be suggesting that domestic demand is picking up," Richard Jerram, chief economist at ING Financial Markets, said.

"Overall, export growth seems to be holding up pretty well so the cyclical dynamic looks good."

China's runaway economic growth has sucked in huge amounts of Japanese exports, such as steel, cars, electronics and other goods, lifting output and business investment in Japan and driving the country's economic recovery.

Exports to China were up 22.7 per cent year-on-year in March, while imports from the giant Asian neighbour were up 25.5 per cent.

Over the next few weeks, many of Japan's exporting companies are expected to report record earnings for the business year that ended last month.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly "tankan" corporate survey published this month showed that the improvement in the business environment was spreading to smaller companies and non-manufacturers, while household spending numbers have also been improving.

This bodes well for the economy in coming quarters as the yen's rise over the past few years could begin to take a toll on exports, which have so far been the main engine of Japan's recovery from a decade of stagnation.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui told parliamentarians on Tuesday that there was "no question" the recovery would continue, though growth in January-March 2004 would probably not match the 6.4 per cent annualised pace of the last three months of 2003.

"Overall, the January-March quarter may not have been as strong as October-December, but considering the yen strength these are fairly positive figures," said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/1...0,00020008.htm

[Vapour]

Top trading houses post record earnings

By TAIGA URANAKA
Staff writer

Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co., Japan's two largest trading houses, on Tuesday reported record earnings for the year through March, helped by surging petrochemical and natural resources markets.
Mitsubishi, the No. 1 trader in terms of revenue, said its net profit for fiscal 2003 jumped 85 percent to a record 115.37 billion yen. Sales rose 14 percent to 15.18 trillion yen.

It was also the first time for a Japanese trading house to post a net profit topping 100 billion yen, the company said.

The company said strong demand for energy resources such as petroleum and liquefied natural gas, as well as petrochemical and metal products, boosted its revenue and earnings.

A solid performance by its automobile business in Asia also helped, it added.

Likewise, Mitsui said its net profit more than doubled to 68.39 billion yen for the year, on revenue of 12.28 trillion yen, up 7 percent.

The company also said it enjoyed brisk trading in the energy, petrochemical and metal businesses. It said a recent surge in steel demand pushed up its earnings, as it saw an increase in steel exports to China and other parts of Asia.

Moreover, the company said its cell phone handset retailing business fared well.

From convenience stores to aerospace, Japan's trading houses have a diverse business portfolio through far-reaching investments, including in coal and iron ore mines overseas.

Itochu Corp., Japan's third-biggest trading house, said the same day it logged a net loss of 31.94 billion yen, down from a net profit of 20.08 billion yen a year ago, after it wrote down 123.3 billion yen in fixed assets.

During the day's news conference, Mitsubishi chief financial officer Ichiro Mizuno said demand for natural resources will probably remain strong for the current year, with the U.S. and Asian economies expected to remain robust for a while.

Asked about potential financial assistance for Mitsubishi Motors Corp., Mizuno said the troubled automaker must come up with a revival plan that "makes business sense" for his company to pitch in and help.

Citing decreasing cross-shareholdings and the growing presence of overseas and individual investors, he said it has become increasingly difficult for his company to bail out MMC just because it happens to have Mitsubishi in its name.

[Vapour]

Toyota first firm to exceed 1 trillion yen

By KAHO SHIMIZU
Staff writer

Toyota Motor Corp. said Tuesday it posted a record net profit of 1.16 trillion yen for the year to March, becoming the first Japanese company to exceed the 1 trillion yen mark.
Net profit jumped 54.8 percent from a year earlier, backed by increased overseas and domestic sales and a 230 billion yen reduction in costs.

Operating profit rose 31.1 percent to a record 1.66 trillion yen while revenue grew 11.6 percent to an all-time high of 17.29 trillion yen.

Group sales and operating profit marked record highs for the fourth consecutive year.

"This was a year in which our efforts began bearing fruit," Toyota Executive Vice President Ryuji Araki told a news conference at a Tokyo hotel, adding group sales grew in all regions and production capacity reached full speed.

Araki also pointed to improvements in earnings of Toyota's subsidiaries, whose combined operating profits quadrupled from the corresponding figures five years ago.

One-time pension-related gains helped inflate the company's earnings. Toyota reported a 107 billion yen operating profit generated from returning part of its employees' pension obligations to the government.

Toyota said the yen's rise against the dollar sucked some 140 billion yen from its operating profit.

But Japan's biggest automaker cut 230 billion yen in manufacturing costs and was able to offset the negative impact of the exchange rate. A stronger yen reduces the value of Japanese firms' overseas earnings when repatriated.

In terms of sales volume, Toyota's global sales increased 9.9 percent from the previous year to a record 6,719,363 units, led by robust overseas and domestic sales. These figures include sales by two subsidiaries, Daihatsu Motor Co. and Hino Motors Ltd.

Domestic sales rose 3.8 percent to 2,303,078 units, led by the success of the new hybrid Prius and new Crown luxury sedan.

In North America, Toyota sold 2,102,681 units, up 6.1 percent from a year earlier, with the Siena minivan and Lexus RX 330 sport utility vehicle enjoying brisk sales.

In Europe, sales climbed 15.8 percent to 898,201 units, thanks to the success of the new Avensis model and the Yaris compact.

Toyota hopes to boost its global sales volume to 7,020,000 vehicles for the current fiscal year.

Starting last fiscal year, Toyota is applying generally accepted U.S. accounting principles to its consolidated financial reports.

On a parent-only basis, Toyota reported a net profit of 581.4 billion yen, down 8.3 percent from a year earlier.

Operating profit declined 3.2 percent to 833.7 billion yen while revenues rose 2.6 percent to 8.96 trillion yen.

For the current year, Araki said, the firm hopes to generate the same levels of group profits as last year even though the negative effects of the strong yen are expected to continue. The firm did not disclose its group earning projections.

On a parent-only basis, Toyota expects to generate a net profit of 520 billion yen, an operating profit of 700 billion yen and revenue of 9 trillion yen.

[Bond James Bond]

NY Times
May 29, 2004
Rising Spending in Japan Fuels Economic Optimism
By TODD ZAUN

TOKYO, May 28 - Consumer spending in Japan grew in April at the fastest pace in two decades, as the economy added jobs and manufacturing increased solidly, official data showed on Friday.

The figures kindled optimism that Japan's two-year-old recovery had solidly taken root and strengthened. The numbers surprised many economists who had expected growth to cool somewhat after the blistering pace of the last six months.

"The economy is recovering,'' Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi declared in Parliament on Friday.

Private economists said much the same thing. "Everything is looking up,'' said Ryo Hino, an economist at J. P. Morgan Securities Asia. "The economy may not have lost any momentum at all from the first quarter.''

Japan gained 240,000 jobs in April, after a rise of 190,000 in March, as the information and communications sector added jobs. The unemployment rate remained at a three-year low of 4.7 percent.

A separate report showed household spending jumped a much- stronger-than-expected 7.2 percent in April from the year earlier, a sign that the brighter employment prospects may be imbuing consumers with the confidence to spend more. The increase in April was the strongest in 21 years, the government said.

Industrial production, meanwhile, was up 3.3 percent in April from the previous month, official figures showed, helped by increased output of electrical machinery and transportation equipment.

April's advance followed a string of mostly strong output numbers over the last six months and showed that "the economy is in the best condition since the bubble burst, and improving rapidly," Richard Jerram, chief economist for ING wrote in a report, referring to the rapid run-up in stocks that ended suddenly at the beginning of the 1990's.

The string of rosy figures released Friday followed a report earlier this week that Japan's trade surplus continued to balloon, hitting $9.7 billion in April, on rapid expansion of exports to Asia.

Altogether, the numbers show that while exports - the main engine of the economy - remain healthy, the economy is now also benefiting from consumer spending, economists said. The hiring surge is generating optimism that the rebound in consumer spending would continue.

Japan's economy expanded at an annual 5.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, after a robust 6.4 percent spurt in the last quarter of 2003, as a recovery driven largely by exports broadened to include a pickup in consumption.

Economists are still looking for convincing evidence of an increase in incomes, which could cement the rebound in consumer spending. In Japan, twice-yearly bonuses make up a significant portion of earnings for many workers, so economists are watching to see how generous this year's summer payouts will be.

A survey released Friday suggested that many workers might get a pleasant surprise when bonuses are paid in the next few months. The poll of 300 companies by the financial daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun showed that companies are planning to raise summer bonuses for the second consecutive year.

Among the spate of figures released Friday, perhaps the most encouraging were those on household spending. The 7.2 percent increase was the largest since October 1982 and far greater than the 1 percent rise forecast by economists. Private consumption accounts for more than half of Japan's economy.

The report showed that Japanese are spending more on travel, recreation, transportation and education, although the last category may reflect an increase in college tuition. In addition, spending on computers more than doubled in April from a month earlier, according to the report.

The report also showed that disposable income for households headed by wage earners rose for the fourth consecutive month in April, gaining 3.3 percent from a year earlier.

[maxxam80]

well Japan is about 7-8'oclock on the economic circle 6'o clock has been and gone and everyone looks forward to 11-12'o clock

if you get what I mean

[Sultan]

Pakistanis use global ties to make inroads on used cars

The Asahi Shimbun
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The surge to 300 billion in annual sales is just the start.

Selling used cars abroad, once a minor business, has become a 300 billion yen a year industry-and the driving force behind more than half the deals are Pakistani dealers living in Japan.

The booming niche business is led by entrepreneurs with global connections. The secret to their success? Small profits and quick returns. Arrangements are easily made via cellphone, and hardworking dealers do not shy away from even the tiniest of business transactions.

Their Japanese counterparts are feeling the crunch. ``There is no profit,'' says one dejected Japanese used-car exporter in Yokohama. ``I want to quit.''

Until five years ago, the man exported about 100 cars a month. Now, he scrapes by on about 10 transactions a month. He once raked in 100,000 yen to 200,000 yen per car. His profit margin is now slashed by half. He believes his business is suffering from the effects of the wave of Pakistani dealers who he says will export anything-even if there's as little as 10,000 yen to be made.

There are now more than 800 used-car exporting businesses-and over half are Pakistani owned, industry sources say. There were several dozen Pakistani businesses about a decade ago.

A 42-year-old Pakistani used-car exporter, based in Saitama Prefecture, is one such success story.

With a crew of three Japanese and Pakistani employees, he sells about 200 million yen in used vehicles annually.

When he set up his company seven years ago, about 40 of his fellow countrymen were doing business in the area. Now there are more than 300.

He says a worldwide network of Pakistani entrepreneurs contributed to the rise in dealers from his home country.

Another dealer agrees.

``I trade with 20 countries around the world,'' he says. He does business with compatriots in nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and South America from his trusty cellphone, he says.

According to the Finance Ministry, 720,000 used cars were shipped abroad in 2003, a 50-percent increase in five years. The average price per car was 500,000 yen. The export market pales before the 7 trillion yen domestic used-car market. But it's growing.

``Pakistanis are versatile in languages and have good marketing acumen,'' says Hiroki Fukamachi, a senior researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO). ``Their business is just starting to take off.''

JETRO researchers note the network of 50 million Pakistanis around the world, and shipping cars through virtually duty-free Dubai in the Middle East, have given the entrepreneurs in Japan leverage. But it has not all been smooth going.

According to Saitama prefectural police, three Japanese men allegedly belonging to a political group disrupted a used-car auction sale in Koshigaya, Saitama Prefecture, on Feb. 28. The men drove onto the site in sound trucks blaring, ``No illegal parking.'' They also uttered ethnic and racial epithets and fired air rifles into the air. Offended foreign pedestrians threw stones and kicked the vehicles. It was not the first time the trucks appeared.

``As foreigners living in Japan start establishing themselves, they begin to specialize in a specific field, promoting a level of independence,'' says Yasuo Kuwahara, former president of Dokkyo University and professor of labor economics. ``There will be plenty of scenarios in the future in which Japan's level of tolerance will be tested.''(IHT/Asahi: April 6,2004) (04/06)

http://www.asahi.com/english/nation/TKY200...ds~on~used~cars

[Nick]

Interesting

The Kiwi's do it as well.

Although because of the strength and wealth of the Australian economy,the numbers of used cars coming in from Japan to Australia is limited.Australia makes its own cars and other cars like Toyota and Ford.So the pirce for new cars is pretty cheap.

New Zealand on the other hand makes nothing in terms of heavy industry.So the car price is heafty on a new car.They are happy to pay good money for Japanese used cars

[drwho]

Yen Strengthens on Optimism Japanese Economy Is Accelerating

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose against the dollar for the first day in five after Japan's index of leading economic indicators rose to the highest since March.

The index, which measures job offers, consumer confidence and other indicators of future economic growth, rose to 72.2 percent from 60 percent in July, suggesting the economy will extend its expansion and entice overseas investors to buy Japanese shares.

``There are a few factors driving the yen at the moment -- obviously cyclical recovery and the prospects of foreigners buying Japanese equities is a strong one,'' said Steven Saywell, a currency strategist in London at Citigroup Inc. ``The yen is pretty well placed over the coming weeks and months.'' Citibank forecasts Japan's currency will rise to 106 by year-end.

Against the dollar, the yen advanced to 111.10 at 10 a.m. in New York, from 111.34 late yesterday, according to EBS, an electronic currency-dealing system. The yen climbed to 136.65 per euro, from 136.82.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.8 percent last week as overseas investors were net buyers of Japanese equities for a ninth week in 10, Ministry of Finance figures showed. The average fell 0.3 percent today, ending a 5.6 percent gain in the previous five days.

Foreign investors bought a net 236.3 billion yen ($2.12 billion) in Japanese stocks in the week ended Oct. 1, the biggest net purchase since the week to June 18.

General Motors

``Amid the weaker yen on higher oil prices, foreign purchases of Japanese stocks is one of supportive factors for the yen,'' said Daisuke Uno, market analyst in Tokyo at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. ``Foreign investors are likely to continue buying Japanese shares in the medium- to long-term and that should help the yen,'' which may rise to 110 per dollar at the end of this month, he said.

Japan's currency is ``significantly undervalued'' against the U.S. dollar, General Motors Corp. Chief Executive G. Richard Wagoner Jr. said in a Bloomberg News radio interview from Irving, Texas, which will air tomorrow. He reiterated his view that Japan's government shouldn't sell yen to weaken it.

Demand for the dollar may increase against the euro on expectations a government report tomorrow will show U.S. companies created the most jobs in four months in September. The dollar was at $1.23 per euro from $1.2288 yesterday.

The labor market ``has begun to improve,'' Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said yesterday during a talk to business leaders in Lincoln, Nebraska. Hoenig is a member of the Fed's rate-setting committee this year.

Dollar May Gain

U.S. employers probably added 150,000 jobs last month, up from 144,000 in August, according to the median forecast of 73 economists polled by Bloomberg News.

``The dollar will tread higher in the run-up to the employment report,'' said Shogo Nagaya, a trader in Tokyo at Nomura Trust and Banking Co., a unit of Japan's biggest brokerage. ``We may well get confirmation the U.S. labor market is on a good recovery path.'' The dollar may gain to $1.22 per euro today, he said.

The Institute for Supply Management's gauges of employment for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries rose to three-month highs in September, monthly reports from the group showed in the past week. A government report today showed first- time jobless claims fell last week to a one-month low of 335,000 from a revised 372,000 the previous week.

Gains in employment may increase the chance of higher U.S. interest rates. Robert McTeer, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, on Oct. 5 said the Fed can keep raising rates at a ``measured'' pace, after increasing its benchmark overnight bank-lending rate three times since June to 1.75 percent.

Euro and ECB

The euro also held near a two-week low after the European Central Bank kept its benchmark refinancing rate at a six-decade low of 2 percent, as predicted by all 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

``While some uncertainty has recently arisen concerning the expected strengthening'' of the economy, the recovery is ``ongoing,'' ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a news conference after the decision.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...2A&refer=japan

[drwho]

Japan exports hit record levels

Exports from Japan hit their highest level for more than 50 years last month, but high oil prices could still spell economic slowdown, analysts said.

Japan's exports rose 12.5% on 2003 to 5.46 trillion yen ($50.6bn; £27.9bn), a high since records began in 1947.

But an oil-fuelled rise in imports meant the boost to the trade surplus was smaller than expected.

Japan's economy minister said this week that oil prices were the biggest threat to economic growth.

Although the September exports figure showed strong growth over the same month in the previous year, it was down slightly on August when seasonally adjusted.

The same pattern could be found in the trade surplus, the amount by which exports exceed imports.

September produced a surplus of 1.24 trillion yen, up 12.7% in comparison with 2003.

But that figure was 21.8% lower than August's surplus.

The decline, said Shuji Shirota at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Tokyo, suggested "signs of peaking out - mostly due to a slowdown in overseas economies and rising crude oil prices".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3761908.stm

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[CarolBrissy]

How do Japanese residents on this thread think about the recovery? Is it solid or it may vaporize any time due to the uncertainty looming over China and the US? Thanks for the input.

Originally Posted by CarolBrissy

How do Japanese residents on this thread think about the recovery? Is it solid or it may vaporize any time due to the uncertainty looming over China and the US? Thanks for the input.

Are you also the one wishing to claim every trash about the Japanese economy as soon as something positive about the economy appears or...? I hope you aren't one of those pathetic Japan-bashers.