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Old October 19th, 2019, 05:37 PM   #4581
hkskyline
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Not sure whether we know enough about passenger health on these ultra long haul flights with just a few of these test flights to properly defend in court in case an ill passenger sues the airline.
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Old October 20th, 2019, 12:49 AM   #4582
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No different to trying to sue a bus or train company in this country as they sit on the seat for the same length of time hahahaha. 19 hours 15 minutes and just a tick over 16,000 km.. As a comparison Perth to London is about 14500 km and takes about 16.5 hours in the same direction so that little bit of extra distance makes all the difference in being able to fill the cabin with people..
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Old October 21st, 2019, 08:12 AM   #4583
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Interesting story in the CH 9 newspapers

Is Alan Joyce worth $24 million a year? His record suggests not

By Steve Purvinas
October 20, 2019 — 11.11pm

As a union leader representing Qantas engineers, it's been interesting to watch the public reaction to Qantas chief executive, Alan Joyce, receiving $24 million in one calendar year to run our nation's biggest airline.

Whether it be Qantas, or any large company that employs Australians, anger at growing executive wages seems to be met with a standard response – you need to pay these rates to attract the best people. But are they worth it? A review of the performance of Qantas over time may break down some of the misconceptions shared by those defending their own salary packages.
Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce.

Former Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon handed the reins to Joyce in November 2008. In eight years at the helm, Dixon had never delivered a loss and made a total net profit for Qantas of $4.8 billion. Dixon steered the airline through the SARS crisis, September 11, fallout from the Ansett collapse, the highest-ever oil prices, a lower average Australian dollar (a key figure for the purchase of aviation fuel and new aircraft) and the start of the global financial crisis. For his efforts Dixon received a total of $46 million.

Eleven years ago I was ushered into a room by Dixon, with him telling me there was someone he wanted me to meet. "Steve, this is Alan Joyce, he will be taking over the Qantas Group CEO role from me very shortly when I retire."
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I didn't know much about Joyce at the time and ended that meeting alone with him explaining to me that he intended to be a much fairer leader of the team than Dixon had been. I took the man at his word and let time take its course.

For a decade now Joyce has gone about his business and the figures show a far less rosy picture than the Qantas PR team would have the public believe. The total net profit over 11 years has dropped to $1.7 billion, less than half the amount Dixon made in only eight years. The most significant hurdles faced this decade to Qantas' profit have been industrial disputes caused by worsening employer-employee relations, which I have seen firsthand and am at my wits' end trying to resolve. To date, Joyce has received $92 million, twice that of his predecessor despite the vastly reduced long-term results.

The fleet of aircraft has been left to age to an unsustainable level.


Not only do the financial results appear to be worse under Qantas's current leadership, the fleet of aircraft has been left to age to an unsustainable level. The 2012 Qantas annual report proudly declared that the average age of Qantas aircraft sat at 8.3 years. Today across the Qantas Group that age now sits at 12.8 years. Compared with Asia-Pacific competitors, which have been replacing planes, the age of Qantas aircraft is alarming. Virgin Australia has maintained a reasonable aircraft age at 8.7 years with other airlines even younger: Cathay Pacific 8.5 years, Singapore Airlines 6.9 years, Air New Zealand 6.9 years, Emirates 6.6 years and Etihad 5.9 years.

Aircraft replacements usually cost an airline a third of its expenditure. Maintaining a reasonable age of fleet ensures that passenger comfort and on-time performance are at an acceptable standard. Qantas has been saving billions of dollars each year by not replacing aircraft. Recent profits by Qantas would have clearly been losses if they upgraded planes in line with their competitors, a folly that will take many years and unmentionable investment to rectify.
Related Article
The first Sunrise test flight will be operated with a brand new 787 Dreamliner (pictured). Collected from Boeing's factory in Washington State ahead of the flight, the jet has a special livery marking Qantas' 100th year of operation.
Aviation
Qantas pilots urge 'significant caution' over ultra-long-haul fatigue

Then there is employee engagement and the real distribution of Qantas' wealth. After Qantas announced a $2.8 billion loss in 2014, staff were all called on to freeze their wage levels for 18 months, a call that my union was first to heed in order to help the struggling airline. Assuming the alternative possibility of CPI-based wage increases, employees now forgo $60 million each year as a result of the ongoing wage freeze. At the same time executive and senior management remuneration packages have increased by – you guessed it – $60 million each year. Not one cent forgone by employees to help the airline has gone into reinvestment or new aircraft.
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Old October 21st, 2019, 04:35 PM   #4584
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Not too many airlines still regularly fly the Boeing 747 on a regular route basis but Qantas is one of them flying to Santiago and Tokyo and SFO and Joburg amongst other routes and slated not to be replaced anytime soon.These aircraft are now close to 20 years old . They cant replace the A380s either as some airlines are now already doing because they simply cost too much in fuel to run per paying passenger.So there is truth to these claims, Even the youngest Boeing 737 aircraft is 5 years old with the majority being 17 years old and the majority of the Airbuses are now 15 -17 years old as well.
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Old October 21st, 2019, 09:35 PM   #4585
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It's a bit of a nothing article. Qantas' oldest plane is from 2002 with a good amount of planes coming into service between then and 2010, so it's more about them being stuck in an order cycle than anything else. Getting rid of a plane when it's younger than 15-20 is just a waste and with them refreshing the A330s in 2015, they're likely going to be around until 2025. The 747s will likely be gone 2020/1 and they have over 100 A320s on order.

Last edited by PSJOK; October 21st, 2019 at 09:44 PM.
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Old October 21st, 2019, 11:19 PM   #4586
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He's also a union leader so that's worth keeping in mind.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 12:07 AM   #4587
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastperthcat View Post
Not too many airlines still regularly fly the Boeing 747 on a regular route basis but Qantas is one of them flying to Santiago and Tokyo and SFO and Joburg amongst other routes and slated not to be replaced anytime soon.These aircraft are now close to 20 years old . They cant replace the A380s either as some airlines are now already doing because they simply cost too much in fuel to run per paying passenger.So there is truth to these claims, Even the youngest Boeing 737 aircraft is 5 years old with the majority being 17 years old and the majority of the Airbuses are now 15 -17 years old as well.


747’s are slated to be replace by end of next year and the ER’s which is all they have left now will be about 18 years old when retired which is early, especially for long haul aircraft.

The 737 fleet, yeah some are getting on, but again Qantas makes no secret that their replacement is on the agenda and when replaced the oldest will be in their early 20’s. Which is prime time to replace high cycle planes.

The A330’s still mid life, same with A380’s.

In fact I would say from an age perspective the Qantas fleet is a good balance and even the older planes are very well kept.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 12:35 AM   #4588
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Originally Posted by ajw373 View Post
747’s are slated to be replace by end of next year and the ER’s which is all they have left now will be about 18 years old when retired which is early, especially for long haul aircraft.

The 737 fleet, yeah some are getting on, but again Qantas makes no secret that their replacement is on the agenda and when replaced the oldest will be in their early 20’s. Which is prime time to replace high cycle planes.

The A330’s still mid life, same with A380’s.

In fact I would say from an age perspective the Qantas fleet is a good balance and even the older planes are very well kept.
Yes that's all well and good but the point of the article is that Qantas' financial results look better today because of deferred expenditure (for whatever logical reasons there may be). When they do start trying to bring down the average age of their aircraft in line with their competitors they will have to pay the piper and those profits may turn to losses.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 12:40 AM   #4589
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I love it how he argued the Ansett collapse would be worse for QANTAS. I'd be interested to know why. Din't fares go through the roof because there was only one full service domestic carrier?
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 01:53 AM   #4590
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Originally Posted by brianc68 View Post
Yes that's all well and good but the point of the article is that Qantas' financial results look better today because of deferred expenditure (for whatever logical reasons there may be). When they do start trying to bring down the average age of their aircraft in line with their competitors they will have to pay the piper and those profits may turn to losses.


Deferred or prudent expenditure? If you say defeated then please tell what aircraft should have been replaced by now? Me I would say prudent.

And BTW Qantas fleet age IS on par with their competition.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 02:19 AM   #4591
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Qantas' financial results look better today because of deferred expenditure. When they do start trying to bring down the average age of their aircraft in line with their competitors they will have to pay the piper and those profits may turn to losses.
Deferring capital expenditure alters cashflow, doesn't really change profit.

I think last few years Qantas has been spending an appropriate amount on Capex, but they had a bit of a gap before that.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 02:41 AM   #4592
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They got lucky with fuel prices too.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 03:20 AM   #4593
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajw373 View Post

And BTW Qantas fleet age IS on par with their competition.
BTW it's NOT actually.
Did you read the article?

The Qantas fleet age is NOT on par with its competitors. Qantas is 12.8
Singapore and Air NZ on 6.9, Emirates on 6.6, Etihad below 6 and Cathay Pacific on 8.5.

So, no.

It's not 'prudent' to let it get to the point where you have too much deferred expenditure.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 03:56 AM   #4594
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianc68 View Post
BTW it's NOT actually.
Did you read the article?

The Qantas fleet age is NOT on par with its competitors. Qantas is 12.8
Singapore and Air NZ on 6.9, Emirates on 6.6, Etihad below 6 and Cathay Pacific on 8.5.

So, no.

It's not 'prudent' to let it get to the point where you have too much deferred expenditure.
All those airlines you listed are government owned (except cathay, however we'll see how long they last), where the gov benefits directly from favourable taxation laws for home based airlines (they too also benefit from being single state, single carrier nations if you count the emirates of the UAE as seperate kingdoms, they are certainly run that way).

Qantas runs in a highly deregulated market with severe and damaging competition (have people forgotten the domestic capacity war with VA?) with no help from government. Depreciation laws here mean that keeping an aircraft for less than 15 years (closer to 20) is uneconomincal.

Singapore and the UAE allow aircraft to be fully depreciated in 8 to 12 years.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 04:44 AM   #4595
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianc68 View Post
BTW it's NOT actually.
Did you read the article?

The Qantas fleet age is NOT on par with its competitors. Qantas is 12.8
Singapore and Air NZ on 6.9, Emirates on 6.6, Etihad below 6 and Cathay Pacific on 8.5.

So, no.

It's not 'prudent' to let it get to the point where you have too much deferred expenditure.


Air NZ is an abnormally in that list because it had a recent splurge on new aircraft after suffering financial difficulties that meant they had a long period where they couldn’t buy. (And even leased out brand new aircraft rather than replace old planes in their fleet).

Whilst for different reasons Qantas experienced similar lower age after their rapid early 2000’s expansion, especially domestically.

Cathay is also low again because of a recent splurge after a period of little new orders which is what will happen to Qantas when the 737’s and A330’s in particular actually NEED to be replaced. You will see something similar with American right now where their fleet age is coming down because they are doing a fleet refresh but prior to that it was higher.

Emirates, Etihad, Qatar and to a lesser extent Singapore operate in a totally different fiscal environment as the poster above indicated and replace aircraft far earlier than most other airlines in the world.

Want to compare Qantas, compare them to American or legacy European airlines. And also compare to airlines that have large short haul/domestic narrow body fleets plus long haul. Air France, BA, LH, Delta etc.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 05:17 AM   #4596
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Exactly.
Australia's depreciation policies don't make high fleet turnover smart.

The large lumpy number of 737s delivered in 2002-5 after Ansetts collapse (taken off an AA order - 30 in total) also add to the average now, just as they've previously reduced it - AirFleets lists the 737s at 11.5 years and making up 58% of the fleet (ex. Link)


Id think the International fleet would be closer to 10 years and will drop under by the year end.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 04:00 PM   #4597
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What does it matter if their fleets average age is older than their peers at the moment? Average fleet age is a metric which may show issues, but if cabins and aircraft are maintained, it doesn't really matter. Brian is just on another of his anti something tirades.
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Old October 22nd, 2019, 11:32 PM   #4598
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Well said. It doesn’t matter for the most part and fleet age is influence by so many things.
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Old October 23rd, 2019, 03:53 AM   #4599
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What does it matter if their fleets average age is older than their peers at the moment? Average fleet age is a metric which may show issues, but if cabins and aircraft are maintained, it doesn't really matter. Brian is just on another of his anti something tirades.
Oh whatever. You clearly don't understand the concept of deferring expenditure and the subsequent impacts on the balance sheet and cash flow. And that's before we factor in how cheap money is at the moment. My comments are purely from a business perspective, not on the suitability of the aircraft themselves. CEO's sometimes delay spending money to inflate profits in the short term. It often backfires in the long term.

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Old October 23rd, 2019, 04:08 AM   #4600
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You are all making good points but can I remind you that the unions are currently negotiating Project Sunrise conditions as well as other agreements and this type of article is purely for PR leverage, as BTW is Alan Joyce's constant refrain about Project Sunrise being no certainty.

QF are waiting for final specifications for the proposed new so called 797 for domestic mainline, Tasman and SE Asian routes. It should be the size of a (no longer produced) 757 apparently. The will be a step up in capacity from a 737-8 but not too much plane for main trunk routes and could also replace many if not all domestic A330's. This is not available for delivery though until at least 2025. In the shorter term they could take some of their very large order of A320's / A321's for QF domestic mainline if needed.

The A330 NEO is a likely replacement for the A330-300 in due course for longer Asian routes as the B787-9 is too premium heavy for some Asian routes. I can see another order of 6-8 B787-9's but that is probably it if they do Project Sunrise as even this aircraft doesn't have the range that they need to implement their no stopover competitive advantage strategy.

Of course all of the above could be shafted if AJ is replaced any time soon.
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