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Old January 3rd, 2016, 01:37 AM   #1
Yuri S Andrade
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The Metropolises of Tomorrow

The Metropolises of Tomorrow




I created this thread to discuss how the demographic growth will forge new metropolises and expand the borders of the current ones.

I'll start with examples in the US and Brazil:

-------------------------------- 2014 -------- 2010 ----- Growth %
BosWash ------------------- 51,164,919 --- 49,788,631 --- 2.76%
Southern California ------ 22,254,387 --- 21,396,214 --- 4.01%
Chicagoland --------------- 11,972,216 --- 11,866,918 --- 0.89%
Greater Bay Area --------- 11,918,876 --- 11,338,725 --- 5.12%

BosWash --- New York, Washington-Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, Hartford, Springfield CSAs and Lancaster MSA
SoCal --- Los Angeles CSA and San Diego and Santa Barbara MSAs
Chicagoland --- Chicago and Milwaukee CSAs
G. Bay Area --- San Francisco, Sacramento and Modesto CSAs


-------------------------------- 2014 -------- 2013 ----- Growth %
São Paulo ------------------ 33,596,475 --- 33,304,296 --- 0.88%
Rio de Janeiro ------------- 15,242,909 --- 15,161,638 --- 0.54%

São Paulo --- Metropolitana de São Paulo, Macro Metropolitana Paulista, Vale do Paraíba, Campinas and Piracicaba mesorregions and the microrregion of Itanhaém
Rio de Janeiro --- the entire state minus Norte e Noroeste mesorregions
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Old January 9th, 2016, 05:27 PM   #2
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Using the year 2020 as a target when both the US and Brazil hold their census:

Bos-Wash might be relatively its best moment in demographic terms compared to the rest of the country. Their growth isn't be that far from the national average.

Without annexing any counties to the CSAs, we'll have the following population (provided the current growth patterns remain the same):

Code:
BOSTON --------------------- 8,668,344
NEW YORK ------------------ 24,472,802
PHILADELPHIA --------------- 7,309,526
WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE ------ 10,287,554
BosWash heading for 52 million as 2020.

Southern California, going to 23.5 million people:

Code:
LOS ANGELES -------------- 19,561,020
SAN DIEGO ----------------- 3,515,347
And Chicagoland, with its very slow growth won't see major changes (12.1 million people):

Code:
CHICAGO ------------------ 10,051,406
MILWAUKEE ----------------- 2,070,561
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Old January 9th, 2016, 05:27 PM   #3
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Rio-São Paulo

São Paulo macrometropolitan area will be around 35.3 million people by 2020, acting more and more like an ordinary metropolitan area. In fact, São Paulo and Campinas (100km apart) are already linked by continuous urban sprawl. Rio de Janeiro expanded area will be at 15.8 million.

Therefore, the Rio-São Paulo axis will above 51 million people, few years away to overtake Bos-Wash corridor as the most populated megalopolis in the American continent.
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Old January 11th, 2016, 05:45 PM   #4
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Old January 16th, 2016, 06:58 PM   #5
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2016 will be interesting, as Canadians hold their inter-census, and we'll be able to see how their metro areas growth has been developing. I'd guess the Greater Golden Horseshoe will have been slowed down. They will probably count 10-11 million people by 2021. Map of the area:



Built-up (current, future):

neptis.org

-----------------------------------------------------------

Another interesting case will be London expanded area (London, East and Southeast England). Over 25 million people will be living there by 2021 UK Census.
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Old January 17th, 2016, 02:08 AM   #6
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Sao Paolo
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Old January 19th, 2016, 04:45 PM   #7
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World City Populations 1950 - 2030

http://luminocity3d.org/WorldCity/#3/12.30/10.02
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Old January 19th, 2016, 05:00 PM   #8
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I don't know the reason why they consider Busto Arsizio as not part of Milan. Same for Nola, it should be included in Naples.
However, these data are generally wrong.
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Old January 19th, 2016, 08:50 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IThomas View Post

I don't know the reason why they consider Busto Arsizio as not part of Milan. Same for Nola, it should be included in Naples.
However, these data are generally wrong.
True that. The distortions are ven greater when you look at Germany, where they only considered city proper figures...
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Old January 21st, 2016, 02:38 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade View Post

Another interesting case will be London expanded area (London, East and Southeast England). Over 25 million people will be living there by 2021 UK Census.
How many sq km would the expanded London (London, East & Southeast England) be? Is it comparable in area to the GGH or Bay Area?
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Old January 21st, 2016, 01:19 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
How many sq km would the expanded London (London, East & Southeast England) be? Is it comparable in area to the GGH or Bay Area?
It's 39,000 km². If I'm not mistaken, New York and San Francisco CSAs with new definitions are at 40,000 km² and 25,000 km² respectively. GGH is at 32,000 km².
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Old January 23rd, 2016, 09:27 PM   #12
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The Pearl River delta, with amongst others Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong:



http://www.theguardian.com/cities/20...ity-urban-area
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Old January 24th, 2016, 04:52 PM   #13
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Beijing has two overlapping regions, the coastal Bohai (Economic) Rim, that is the parts of Liaoning, Shandong and Hebei bordering Bohai, plus Tianjin, Beijing and Langfang including the enclave between Tianjin and Beijing. This region borders North Korea.

The more inland Jingjinji (Beijing=Jing, Tianjin=Jin, Hebei=Ji) seems more in vogue these days. It drops Liaoning and Shandong and includes more or most parts of Hebei.
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Old January 29th, 2016, 03:07 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade View Post
Using the year 2020 as a target when both the US and Brazil hold their census:

Bos-Wash might be relatively its best moment in demographic terms compared to the rest of the country. Their growth isn't be that far from the national average.

Without annexing any counties to the CSAs, we'll have the following population (provided the current growth patterns remain the same):

Code:
BOSTON --------------------- 8,668,344
NEW YORK ------------------ 24,472,802
PHILADELPHIA --------------- 7,309,526
WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE ------ 10,287,554
BosWash heading for 52 million as 2020.

Southern California, going to 23.5 million people:

Code:
LOS ANGELES -------------- 19,561,020
SAN DIEGO ----------------- 3,515,347
And Chicagoland, with its very slow growth won't see major changes (12.1 million people):

Code:
CHICAGO ------------------ 10,051,406
MILWAUKEE ----------------- 2,070,561
BosWash as Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington-Baltimore is disjointed as such. You need to add Hartford to make it contiguous.
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Atlanta (6,451,262) - Boston (8,176,376) - Chicago (9,882,634) - Cleveland (3,483,311) - Dallas (7,673,305) - Denver (3,470,235) - Detroit (5,318,653) - Houston (6,972,374)
Los Angeles (18,688,022) - Miami (6,723,472) - Minneapolis (3,894,820) - New York (23,689,255) - Orlando (3,202,927) - Philadelphia (7,179,357) - Phoenix (4,661,537)
Portland (3,160,488) - San Diego (3,317,749) - San Francisco (8,751,807) - Seattle (4,684,516) - Tampa (3,032,171) - Washington (9,665,892)
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Old January 29th, 2016, 04:03 PM   #15
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Hartford, Springfield and Lancaster are added in the first post. The second one is only a mere exercise of how the four biggest CSAs might look in 2020.
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Old February 20th, 2016, 09:20 AM   #16
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Delhi Metropolitan Region, also known as National Capital Region has 23 million at present and is projected to overtake Tokyo as the largest metropolis in the world by 2035. The region includes the city state of Delhi and satellite towns such as Gurgaon, Faridabad, Noida, Greater Noida and Ghaziabad.




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Old February 27th, 2016, 02:40 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa View Post
BosWash as Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington-Baltimore is disjointed as such. You need to add Hartford to make it contiguous.
Those are the biggest cities. In reality it is not a contiguous region. It may be more connected than other parts of the country, but they still function and think very much separately. And even if you do include cities like New Haven and Stamford and Providence and Worcester, it is not even a continuous suburb - there are many rural divides among them. Which is why things like this are so misleading. Some cities in the are will grow tremendously, while others are going to die back. So the corridor as a whole may show a growth in numbers, it is not like it is spreading or being built up.
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Old February 27th, 2016, 05:11 AM   #18
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CHARLANTA....Birmingham, AL to Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleigh/Durham. Currently, 22 million. 2030, 26 million. 2060, 35 million.

Last edited by UrbanMyth; February 27th, 2016 at 02:15 PM.
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Old March 1st, 2016, 01:59 AM   #19
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Most of you would've seen it already - I've recently created a thread for a spreadsheet I've made that is quite relevant to this topic:

https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1898285
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Old March 6th, 2016, 03:26 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri S Andrade View Post
2016 will be interesting, as Canadians hold their inter-census, and we'll be able to see how their metro areas growth has been developing. I'd guess the Greater Golden Horseshoe will have been slowed down. They will probably count 10-11 million people by 2021.
Why will it have slowed down? Toronto continues to be the prime destination for immigrants to the country and the economic growth is expected to grow among the fastest cities in the country in 2016 - especially if the revival of the manufacturing industry continues.
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