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Old January 23rd, 2020, 01:46 PM   #22821
Jon10
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Greengauge's view:

http://www.greengauge21.net/just-get-hs2-done/

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Old January 23rd, 2020, 08:40 PM   #22822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eXSBass View Post
...Worth noting: HS2 Ltd have explicitly stated first track is due to be layed in the spring, which coincides with the new budget...
I'm tempted to (jokingly) ask "which spring...?"

I doubt it'll be 2020 - one suspects any new tracks laid then will be for construction purposes (such as TBM service trains.) Indeed, can I claim that some already has - at Euston, a new siding was laid and a set of points plain lined.
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Old January 24th, 2020, 12:44 AM   #22823
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The NAO has issued/leaked a new HS2 report, but the Guardian story only seems to be on its physical front page, which is this high-res image:

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2...817717_001.png

If that fails, go to Sky:
https://news.sky.com/story/fridays-n...pages-11916147

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Old January 24th, 2020, 08:38 AM   #22824
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A rather foreboding line has appeared in Paul Routledge's column in the Daily Mirror:

Quote:
So what do we get instead? The HS2 high-speed rail link to Leeds from Birmingham is to be “paused” for six months – Toryspeak for abandoned no doubt.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...etely-21344720

The Tories have past form for this sort of thing - Midland Mainline electrification is a classic case, and they got away with it big time, and they will keep getting away with it for as long as Northerners and Midlanders direct their ire at Continentals and those who have spent the last decade in Opposition, instead of those who are really responsible for ruining their lives and running down their localities.
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Last edited by ps60; January 24th, 2020 at 09:00 AM.
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Old January 24th, 2020, 10:15 AM   #22825
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Can you imagine voting for the people who have repeatedly cut investment in your area, based on the belief that they would invest area.
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Old Yesterday, 05:18 PM   #22826
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eXSBass View Post
Actually, we will find out in March's budget if the show is on the road. And I for one hope the Gov see sense and fund and build it.

Worth noting: HS2 Ltd have explicitly stated first track is due to be layed in the spring, which coincides with the new budget.

...
Actually in Politics, when seasons are mentioned, it means much later than the actual season.
e.g. Spring = July/August, Winter = April/May.
It happens regularly.
If something was going to happen in march, then they would just say March 2020.
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Old Yesterday, 06:27 PM   #22827
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The seasons are the celestial ones, based on the solstice and equinox dates

Which is fair enough
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Old Yesterday, 08:49 PM   #22828
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My current view of the likelihood of different scenarios happening with HS2

Phase 1 95%

Phase 2 Western leg 90%(I include Piccadilly bring de-soped in that scenario, as see that possibly in NPR

Phase 2 Western leg plus reduced Eastern leg 75%

Full phase 2 50%

Are others along similar lines?
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Old Today, 03:44 AM   #22829
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As the dragged-out 'review' fiasco is drawing to an end - finally we are starting to see some real pressure put on Bojo to recognise the need for HS2 and the damage that cancellation would result in. This in today's Observer...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...on-andy-street

The most important bits:

Quote:
Scrapping the HS2 rail project will cost at least £12 billion in write-offs and compensation and plunge major construction companies into financial peril, ministers are being warned.

Sources close to the beleaguered scheme told the Observer that extra costs of £3bn-£4bn would be incurred even if it were scrapped immediately. £9bn has been spent already.

Andy Street, the Tory mayor of the West Midlands, said “very senior and influential business people have been in contact with the PM” before an imminent decision. He said it was “Narnia-land” to believe the project could be scrapped without huge costs.

“Businesses have invested billions of pounds in the commitment of the British government from 2015,” Street said. “If you suddenly welch on that, where does it leave us as an international power where our word is our bond? I think that could be incredibly damaging. There would be a huge write-off. We are already committed to things that wouldn’t go ahead. There is also the question of how those who invested in good faith would respond to that.”

Sources said that, in the event of cancellation, billions more would have to be spent on ceasing “enabling works” such as site clearance, ecology surveys and ground improvements, as well as contract terminations and safely dismantling construction sites.

Internal assessments of the risks of scrapping the project have warned of the impact on “potentially vulnerable primes” in the construction sector – a reference to the economic blow that cancelling HS2 would have on major companies. Kier, Balfour Beatty and Costain are among those involved. Large contractors have already written to the prime minister, warning of the damage done by cancellation.

Sources close to HS2 Ltd warned that compensation schemes and purchases in progress would have to continue even if the project were cancelled – while it could take more than a decade to recoup just a fraction of the money spent on land and property. Insiders said this would also result in an avalanche of legal action.
And finally the promoter itself has started to call out the clowns who think other projects could simply replace it.

Quote:
A spokesperson for HS2 Ltd said: “Phase one of HS2 is the only shovel-ready major transport project in the UK. It has taken 10 years of expert design and development, parliamentary scrutiny and public consultation to get to this point. No other major projects are within at least five years of being where HS2 is today, and upgrades to the existing network cannot deliver the same benefits.
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Old Today, 03:59 AM   #22830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Darwin View Post
My current view of the likelihood of different scenarios happening with HS2

Phase 1 95%

Phase 2 Western leg 90%(I include Piccadilly bring de-scoped in that scenario, as see that possibly in NPR

Phase 2 Western leg plus reduced Eastern leg 75%

Full phase 2 50%

Are others along similar lines?
Phase 1 - agreed, 95%. To cancel now would be utterly moronic....
Phase 2a - 90%.
Phase 2b - without any rationalisation - only 40%.
Phase 2b - with rationalisation (cost and spec cutting) - 60%.

If I was personally forced to choose between building the western and eastern branches I would choose the eastern branch every time - to properly relieve the MML and ECML. As to what any government with Cummings as part of it will end up doing about phase 2b I have no idea. I don't think that weirdo actually understands (or cares) that NPR can't work without HS2 being built.
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Old Today, 05:50 AM   #22831
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I can see Crewe to Manchester morphing into NPR to spin HS2 cost savings and deliver NPR earlier.
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Old Today, 11:17 AM   #22832
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Just been on a plane, guy in front of me was reading The Sunday Times Business section editorial

The headline was saying HS2 should be built, will find article later when not on the move and share highlights on here
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Old Today, 11:38 AM   #22833
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Darwin View Post
I can see Crewe to Manchester morphing into NPR to spin HS2 cost savings and deliver NPR earlier.
Yes I can see that happening too. I’d have thought the decision will be based on covering pre-election positions, therefore knocking off apart of phase 2 to lower the headline number for delivering HS2 and committing to NPR.

The question becomes, how much earlier could NPR be delivered? If earlier at all.

As it stands, the Piccadilly HS2 station won’t see a train until 2040 apparently, which is a fairly poor state of affairs. If HS2 is about capacity and getting the long distance services off the WCML, the Manchester section will be waiting a whole decade longer than London and Birmingham. Therefore I hope there are other infrastructure schemes that can be delivered in the next two decades that can assist with this issue.
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Old Today, 01:29 PM   #22834
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/b...done-w6vbfcvsh

Quote:
Over time, Over Budget - But lets get HS2 done


………………………………...
Britain’s trains are crowded and outdated. HS2’s 14 or more services an hour would ease capacity and cut journey times. London to Birmingham would come down to 49 minutes from 1 hr, 21 mins; Birmingham to Manchester would be 41 minutes rather than 1 hr, 28; and Birmingham to Leeds would be slashed to 57 minutes from 1 hr, 58.
According to the NAO, Department for Transport forecasts say the Y-shape overall might deliver £1.40 of economic benefits for every pound spent — considered “low value for money” by the government. Yet it’s still positive, and the long-term benefits are almost impossible to estimate. Local developers reckon many of the cranes dotting the Birmingham skyline are there at least in part because the city’s mini-boom is underpinned by the expectation of HS2. Try measuring that quantitatively.
The most fallacious argument put forward by critics is that £100bn would be better spent on smaller rail projects around the north. Aside from the fact that few are anywhere near ready and it would involve shutdowns on existing routes, it doesn’t need to be binary. HS2 should become the backbone for better connections between cities such as Manchester and Leeds...………………………...


there is much more and 2 articles per week is free
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Old Today, 04:12 PM   #22835
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan's Finest View Post
If I was personally forced to choose between building the western and eastern branches I would choose the eastern branch every time - to properly relieve the MML and ECML.

So potentially would all 'HS2' Manchester trains pass through Crewe or Stoke (what would be the journey-time difference?) and then Stockport?

Is this a scenario where you might introduce 260m-long HS2 trains (which you have suggested before)?

And Stockport and the approaches into Piccadilly could cope? (They would have to, by delaying other new services, I suppose.)


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Old Today, 06:06 PM   #22836
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan's Finest View Post
If I was personally forced to choose between building the western and eastern branches I would choose the eastern branch every time - to properly relieve the MML and ECML.
That branch will presumably provide the biggest step up in speed and quality from the existing line it would be shadowing. Plus there are inter-regional opportunities it would provide. Such as Birmingham to Nottingham, Leeds to Leicester and a much better Sheffield - Leeds / York line. The same inter-regional opportunities will exist on the Western branch as well though, so hopefully the whole thing gets the nod from Big Boris.
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