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Old July 4th, 2019, 03:35 AM   #2681
Pedantic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post
Good to have this thread back on topic. So end of January 2020 we will be there (at the 5 million mark). The countdown begins...
I don't think we ever went off topic.

Expressing concerns about immigration, and refugees, which most definitely would have an impact on our population, demographics, etc., is exactly what this thread is all about.
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Old July 4th, 2019, 06:37 AM   #2682
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blah View Post
So thats approx 150 per day, or 1500 every ten days. Or 4500 a month. So around 7 months from now. So summer 2020.
150 a day is ~55K annual, and that number is pure rubbish,

We know that natural increase 17/18 was 26.5K and the net migration gain was 65K, giving a total gain of ~91K or 250 per day
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/migra...ulation-growth

Natural increase is likely to remain around 25K, so they are forecasting a huge slump in net migration to 30K net inflow,

When I looked last month, net migration was still running at +55K
https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...ion-april-2019
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Old July 4th, 2019, 07:00 AM   #2683
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenwelly View Post
150 a day is ~55K annual, and that number is pure rubbish,

We know that natural increase 17/18 was 26.5K and the net migration gain was 65K, giving a total gain of ~91K or 250 per day
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/migra...ulation-growth

Natural increase is likely to remain around 25K, so they are forecasting a huge slump in net migration to 30K net inflow,

When I looked last month, net migration was still running at +55K
https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...ion-april-2019
And that's why an accurate and timeous national census is so important...
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Old July 4th, 2019, 08:55 AM   #2684
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Quote:
I don't think we ever went off topic

Quote:
Originally Posted by Royen View Post
Can we please get this thread back on topic. I know some of the above discussion does relate to New Zealand population issues, but its clear the discussion is heading (and already has) in an undesirable direction.

Cheers
I think I agree with Royen on this one.
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Old July 4th, 2019, 09:04 AM   #2685
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post
I think I agree with Royen on this one.
Have to side with Pedantic, the thread was not heading in an undesirable direction nor had it already done so. What was posted was not incorrect , you may of not liked it but that is not a good enough reason to stop it.
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Old July 4th, 2019, 10:16 AM   #2686
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Yes agreed. It's good to have a robust discussion and establish facts.

Sometimes facts don't always align with our inner feelings. Like you say, we may not like it but it's not a good enough reason to ignore them.

E.g.

Gut feeling:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
GDP is spread over a greater number of people , making us poorer.
Fact:
GDP per capita has been growing.


Gut feeling (more immigration must mean the number of people per household must be growing):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
Be interesting when and if ever the census stats come out , if there has been an overall lift in the number of people per house hold.
Fact:
12 years of census data shows a static people per household value.


Gut feeling (zomg won't someone think of the white farmer "refugees":
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
No it is because they are White.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedantic View Post
Do you have any idea how difficult it is to be considered a refugee if you happen to be Caucasian?
Fact:
they don't come under the definition of a refugee, nothing to do with race.

Sometimes we may even contradict ourselves:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
We should be taking as many SA farmers as possible, but we won't.
We should take as many white South African farmers, but the current inflow of people is too much.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
Thats 150 per day, 1500 every 10 days or 4500 a month to many.
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Old July 4th, 2019, 10:47 AM   #2687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedantic View Post
I don't think we ever went off topic.

Expressing concerns about immigration, and refugees, which most definitely would have an impact on our population, demographics, etc., is exactly what this thread is all about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
Have to side with Pedantic, the thread was not heading in an undesirable direction nor had it already done so. What was posted was not incorrect , you may of not liked it but that is not a good enough reason to stop it.
I agree a healthy robust debate is always to be encouraged and that is why this current discussion has continued over the past four pages without any intervention.

However, my post was a simple reminder to get the discussion back on topic as it had, as evidenced below, gone on an undesirable tangent and included unnecessary commentary.

These posts are definitely not "what this thread is all about":

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob73 View Post
which is quite stupid since they are educated, have a useful profession and are going to be a far better fit in NZ than a lot of the other human detritus we take in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
he means the like the African youth creating havoc in Melbourne , or the Asians why they're called "Asian" i'm not sure who have raped 1000's of young women in the UK or the 1000's sleeping in the open in Paris and turning parts of it in to s..tholes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
Would be interesting ( well not really because we know the answer) what the reaction would of been had SBW expressed the same view as Falau. The Islam view and treatment of gays is far worse then that expressed by Falau or handed out by Christians.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob73 View Post
You could probably guarantee that SBW has the same point of view, the difference is his management probably have him on a tighter leash. SBW is Muslim and there point of view over the same issues is even more strict than the nutty Christian sect Folau follows.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedantic View Post
That's something I fail to understand, how the LGBTQ community can embrace an ideology that is diametrically opposed to everything they stand for, and given half a chance, would gladly eradicate them?
Quote:
Originally Posted by whooodaman View Post
I have a Muslim friend who told me that in his religion gay people do not exist. But it is ok to have sexual feelings towards someone of the same sex because all Muslims have impure thoughts. But if you act on them then that is a completely different story, you will be in big trouble
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob73 View Post
Yes. It’s expressly forbidden.

As a prophet of God, Lut preached to his people: 'Will you commit lewdness such as no people in creation ever committed before you? For you come in lust to men in preference to women. No, you are indeed a people transgressing beyond bounds' (Qur'an 7:80-81).

In another verse, Lut advised them: 'Of all the creatures in the world, will you approach males, and leave those whom Allah has created for you to be your mates? No, you are a people transgressing (all limits)!' (Qur'an 26:165-166).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob73 View Post
I work with an Iranian guy who loves his pork products and drinks like a fish, but only does this when he's with non muslims, he'd never eat forbidden food or drink alcohol in the company of other muslims. Muslims like Ali are in the minority unfortunately.

I would hope so as well, but we really won't find out what his points of view are until after his playing career is over, as I said he probably listens to his minders and knows which side his bread is buttered.
Quote:
Originally Posted by archisimon View Post
Oh you're the one stuck in Norway?

I think most of the issues you raised regarding refugees are more relevant to a city like Oslo than NZ. Maybe find a thread in the Norwegian forums to vent your frustration because queue jumping is hardly the hot topic here.

Perhaps you've been hanging around in Oslo's eastern suburbs for too long but referring to other human beings as "human detritus" is pretty sad.
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Old July 4th, 2019, 11:32 AM   #2688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robnobbob View Post
Have to side with Pedantic, the thread was not heading in an undesirable direction nor had it already done so. What was posted was not incorrect , you may of not liked it but that is not a good enough reason to stop it.
I'm not against the discussion from happening at all. This should have a separate thread created not this one. So you can voice your opinions freely to your heart is content.
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Old July 5th, 2019, 12:32 AM   #2689
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Well, that was interesting, and no harm done.
Now we can move on, bearing in mind that some people do have stronger opinions than others, but we need to be respectful at all times.
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Old July 5th, 2019, 06:09 AM   #2690
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At least we have the freedom to post the comments we have, hopefully that freedom to do so will remain.
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Old July 5th, 2019, 03:45 PM   #2691
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I'm a man (gay!) engaged to another man (muslim!)... so I probably found all of your comments particularly interesting. I'd be lying if I didn't say they also made me feel a bit uncomfortable and excluded, tbh.

Feelings are feelings, it's the internet, who cares, but it would be nice to not feel excluded by virtue of what is deemed an acceptable standard of conversation, so cheers to you Royen for moderating.
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Old July 5th, 2019, 03:48 PM   #2692
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PS he's also a refugee - sorry - in the interest of keeping on topic! :P
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Old July 17th, 2019, 06:17 AM   #2693
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Population grown by 443,000 in the last 5 years.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12106752
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Old August 18th, 2019, 11:34 PM   #2694
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dazzle View Post
as per Population Clock, tracking at...

4,970,607
as at Wednesday, 03 Jul 2019 at 01:16:48 p.m.
(New Zealand's population is estimated to increase by one person every 10 minutes and 13 seconds)

Getting close
Well surprise, surprise.......adjustment city!!!!

Population clock
4,926,123
as at Monday, 19 Aug 2019 at 08:30:04 a.m.
New Zealand's population is estimated to increase by one person every 7 minutes and 49 seconds.

This is based on the estimated resident population at 30 June 2019 and the following forecasts:

one birth every 8 minutes and 47 seconds
one death every 14 minutes and 9 seconds
a net migration gain of one New Zealand resident every 11 minutes and 50 seconds.
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Old August 19th, 2019, 01:33 AM   #2695
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Well that is a big reduction in just over a month so the original was over estimated by 44,000 that is a lot. We have a lot longer to wait now till we get to see 5 million it seems unless they revise it again.
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Old August 19th, 2019, 01:57 AM   #2696
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post

Well that is a big reduction in just over a month so the original was over estimated by 44,000 that is a lot. We have a lot longer to wait now till we get to see 5 million it seems unless they revise it again.
It will get revised when the 2018 census head counts are (finally) released, on 24 September, this will give a guide on how accurate the current estimates are,...

The number to watch is 4.89 million, which is the current estimate for 30 June 2018.
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Old August 19th, 2019, 02:44 AM   #2697
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So we could be over 5 now if we were 4.89 a year ago!
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Old August 19th, 2019, 04:53 AM   #2698
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post
So we could be over 5 now if we were 4.89 a year ago!
That's the 5,000,000 question.... but the fact they just wound the pop clock back to 4.925 says that 4.89 was too high....

Natural increase is 25K annually, net migration is ~50K annual so growth is somewhere around ~75K,
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Old August 25th, 2019, 03:55 AM   #2699
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I know this sounds mean but Stats NZ seem like a rabble of an organisation. Poorly run going by the constant errors and problems they seem to have. What even happened to the last census? Have they totally abandoned it at this stage? And if so, how do any of the senior managers even have a job?
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Old August 25th, 2019, 04:06 AM   #2700
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The results are still intended to be released at some point, with the first round being later this year I believe. How reliable the results will be is another issue entirely, though . I even heard talk of them moving the next census forward to an earlier date to make up for last year’s mess.
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