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Old September 2nd, 2013, 10:19 AM   #1741
honeybear
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Interesting observation re Queenstown -and you are probably correct. Even with its restricted geographical centre, it will soon overtake Timaru and become the 5th most populous centre in the Sth Is after chc,Dud,Nsn,IVC - scarry!
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Old September 2nd, 2013, 10:24 AM   #1742
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I don't think you'll see Invercargill hitting the 100,000. IVC has hardly grown in 40 years.
Nelson and Lakes District are my picks for the highest growth.
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Old September 2nd, 2013, 01:23 PM   #1743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by honeybear View Post
are we talking about the same "Blenheim" ...? I mean, tall buildings, cathedrals, sprawling suburbs.. next you will be suggesting light rail..
Good suggestion how about a light rail link from the northern leafy suburbs to the Blenheim CBD. Or maybe not, have to wait 50 more years at least I reckon.
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Old September 2nd, 2013, 01:28 PM   #1744
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post
S.I. Cities
It be great if we could have 6 cities in the south island, currently only have 4. One day it will happen, as with the 2 centers in the north (Nelson and Blenheim) will continue to grow bigger and become more dominant. Christchurch will always be the "capital" of the mainland and be good for Timaru to grow again to around 50,000 and the bottom 2 could grow also especially Invercargill. Queenstown around 27,000 now will one day be 50,000 in the district area but will always feel like a town in its own right. As is constrained by the geography around it. The town itself is 16,000 and not much more room to grow.

One day it could be like this:
Nelson 100,000
Blenheim 60,000
Christchurch 450,000
Timaru 50,000
Dunedin 180,000
Invercargill 100,000
Doesn't the South Island currently have 5 cities and not 4? Nelson, Christchurch, Timaru, Dunedin and Invercargill?
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Old September 2nd, 2013, 01:30 PM   #1745
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post
S.I. Cities
It be great if we could have 6 cities in the south island, currently only have 4. One day it will happen, as with the 2 centers in the north (Nelson and Blenheim) will continue to grow bigger and become more dominant. Christchurch will always be the "capital" of the mainland and be good for Timaru to grow again to around 50,000 and the bottom 2 could grow also especially Invercargill. Queenstown around 27,000 now will one day be 50,000 in the district area but will always feel like a town in its own right. As is constrained by the geography around it. The town itself is 16,000 and not much more room to grow.

One day it could be like this:
Nelson 100,000
Blenheim 60,000
Christchurch 450,000
Timaru 50,000
Dunedin 180,000
Invercargill 100,000
I wouldn't count on Blenheim being equally dominant in the north. Also, 100,000? I'd hate to see how terrible the suburban spread would be and how much valuable agricultural land it would gobble up.
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Old September 2nd, 2013, 01:31 PM   #1746
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Originally Posted by northland19 View Post
Doesn't the South Island currently have 5 cities and not 4? Nelson, Christchurch, Timaru, Dunedin and Invercargill?
Invercargill is just shy of 50,000 people.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 12:53 AM   #1747
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Invercargill is just shy of 50,000 people.
Invercargill 52,900 has a city council while Timaru 27,200 has a district council.
So only 4 cities in the S.I.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 12:58 AM   #1748
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I too agree Timaru feels big. Big churches, a wee (annoying lane merging) highway system, big hospital. It takes a long time to travel through and is actually a very nice city (populated by bogans unfortunately!).
It does lack the amenities of other regional cities though: second-tier sports teams, stadiums, museums and such.
Nice place though.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 01:11 AM   #1749
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post
Invercargill 52,900 has a city council while Timaru 27,200 has a district council.
So only 4 cities in the S.I.
Meh. I'd still be interested to see how Nelson would manage a population higher than 85,000, given that the council has a penchant for urban sprawl on limited land and the populace hasn't gotten used to the idea that we might have to build up rather than out.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 01:42 AM   #1750
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KiwiGuy View Post
Meh. I'd still be interested to see how Nelson would manage a population higher than 85,000, given that the council has a penchant for urban sprawl on limited land and the populace hasn't gotten used to the idea that we might have to build up rather than out.
I possibly suspect Nelson will reach 100,000 before Palmerston North. I think you will have a case of medium density developing and more sprawl around Richmond.
I don't think anywhere in NZ has got use to the idea of building up rather than out until it becomes absolutly necessary and it's not valuable farmland that stops sprawl, it is geographic boundaries such as water and mountains, i.e. Wellington City. If Dunedin were to have a population boon, then the same would happen there.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 01:53 AM   #1751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post
S.I. Cities
It be great if we could have 6 cities in the south island, currently only have 4. One day it will happen, as with the 2 centers in the north (Nelson and Blenheim) will continue to grow bigger and become more dominant. Christchurch will always be the "capital" of the mainland and be good for Timaru to grow again to around 50,000 and the bottom 2 could grow also especially Invercargill. Queenstown around 27,000 now will one day be 50,000 in the district area but will always feel like a town in its own right. As is constrained by the geography around it. The town itself is 16,000 and not much more room to grow.

One day it could be like this:
Nelson 100,000
Blenheim 60,000
Christchurch 450,000
Timaru 50,000
Dunedin 180,000
Invercargill 100,000
I agree 100,000 for Nelson easily in maybe the next 20-30 years.
In the same period maybe 50,000 for Blenheim.
Hopefully the Capital can do better than 450,000 in the same time, that's only 50k more than pre Feb 2011, so should reach the half million mark.
Timaru, I will be happy if it cracks the 40,000, but if Christchurch becomes a bigger city, then so should all other centres in Canterbury, so 50,000 could be possible once Chch has got past the 500,000 mark.
Dunedin 150,000 unless it really cracks into gear, and people realise it's potential then 200,000 could be possible when it becomes the Aberdeen of the South.
Invercargill, I say around 70,000 in our life time at best, a lot of room there though if people like their sprawl.

I always wished there was a greater significant population on Stewart Island and more than just one settlement. The status now sees no chance of this happening.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 02:19 AM   #1752
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Dunedin will become a suburb of Mosgiel if that happens, instead of the other way round.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 07:53 AM   #1753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nthbeach View Post
I possibly suspect Nelson will reach 100,000 before Palmerston North. I think you will have a case of medium density developing and more sprawl around Richmond.
There's already a large amount of sprawl around Richmond and it's staring to spread beyond that into the hills between Nelson and Motueka. There's already a number of subdivisions being built now. Although at least the property developers are making use of the land we have now bu knocking down old or ugly buildings or filling in gaps.

Quote:
I don't think anywhere in NZ has got use to the idea of building up rather than out until it becomes absolutly necessary and it's not valuable farmland that stops sprawl, it is geographic boundaries such as water and mountains, i.e. Wellington City. If Dunedin were to have a population boon, then the same would happen there.
We have those. We're more geographically constrained than Wellington is.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 11:40 AM   #1754
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KiwiGuy View Post
We have those. We're more geographically constrained than Wellington is.
Sorry, didn't make myself too clear. I think soon, density will develop as the market will probably dictate this for Nelson city area because of the geographic constraints. It will be a case of how lifestyles wanted against the property costs.
You could easily see more sprawl towards Brightwater and Appleby from Richmond, might not be pretty, but people will go for it.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 11:51 AM   #1755
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Dunedin will become a suburb of Mosgiel if that happens, instead of the other way round.
I don't think that would happen, growth can be spread out more than just Mosgiel, eg. between St Clair, Brighton and Green Island and also Oceangrove.
Mosgiel would certainly play a part in a larger Dunedin but in no way overtake it.
Plus I think Dunedin central with the university has too much going on.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 11:59 AM   #1756
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarden View Post

Invercargill 52,900 has a city council while Timaru 27,200 has a district council.
So only 4 cities in the S.I.
That doesn't stop Timaru from being a city though does it? Aucklands new local government isn't a city council but that doesn't stop Auckland from being a city does it? Also, Whangarei, New Plymouth, Gisborne, Whanganui, Rotorua and Hastings are all cities governed locally by district councils no?
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 12:06 PM   #1757
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That doesn't stop Timaru from being a city though does it? Aucklands new local government isn't a city council but that doesn't stop Auckland from being a city does it? Also, Whangarei, New Plymouth, Gisborne, Whanganui, Rotorua and Hastings are all cities governed locally by district councils no?
Yeah it wasnt just about the so called 50000 is a city limit, it was also about efficiency. Rotorua governs a couple of small settlements outside of main area like the village next to lake tarawera, New plymouth governs the town of waitara. Those places were all governed by seperate councils before the changes and it seems pretty inefficient.
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 12:30 PM   #1758
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is Timaru a city or not?

This debate raged for some time earlier in the year on another blog site with the concensus being it is not. Apparantly Timaru lost it's city status some years ago and it seems it was all about timing. The city council was amalgamated with the rural council and formed a Timaru distrcit council. At the same time the "population for city" threshold went from 30,000 to 50,000 so Timaru slipped quietly into "townsville" status as it were.. (although then someone else said that once a city, always a city regardless of population changes and local body council structure). I guess the only way to find out it to contact the mayor and get the facts from the horses mouth so to speak!
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 12:37 PM   #1759
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This debate raged for some time earlier in the year on another blog site with the concensus being it is not. Apparantly Timaru lost it's city status some years ago and it seems it was all about timing. The city council was amalgamated with the rural council and formed a Timaru distrcit council. At the same time the "population for city" threshold went from 30,000 to 50,000 so Timaru slipped quietly into "townsville" status as it were.. (although then someone else said that once a city, always a city regardless of population changes and local body council structure). I guess the only way to find out it to contact the mayor and get the facts from the horses mouth so to speak!
I guess that means that Gisborne and Whanganui aren't cities either seeing as they don't meet the 50.000 mark?
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Old September 3rd, 2013, 06:17 PM   #1760
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Yes Wanganui And Gisborne are under 50k and run as district councils.

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I possibly suspect Nelson will reach 100,000 before Palmerston North.
But Palmerston North at 85,300 is much closer to the 100,000 mark than Nelson at 61,100. Their growth rate will have to be double for them to get there first, anyhow the race is on. Place your bets.
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