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Old September 17th, 2019, 01:59 PM   #2981
Bear Would Ian
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Yes,I was going to mention Black Swan when somebody mentioned the real worst case scenario report. It’s named after the film and what happened to the main character, but I haven’t seen the film. Can anybody enlighten us?
Actually, I believe the scenario may be named after the theory developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2001 in his book 'Fooled by Randomness' and/or the prior ideas discussed in philosophy around the problems involved in induction:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Not sure how the film fits into is as I've not seen it either - it might be completely unrelated. Anyway, what Taleb seems to be saying is that most events are unpredictable and a surprise but are rationalised afterwards as if they could be expected. Apparently, he says we shouldn't aim to make these events any more predictable but build robustness in the event that they do occur.
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Old September 18th, 2019, 07:04 PM   #2982
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Yellow Hammer... Wow. https://assets.publishing.service.go...ptions_CDL.pdf

Worth noting that this document states it's the "worst case"... the leaks to the papers a few weeks ago state "base scenario". The difference of both phrases are significant. Base being the least you can expect and worst being the most.
If this is the base scenario then surely there must be a worst case which hasn't been released yet. Parliament must take action to find out if this is the case and if it is Johnson should resign for misleading Parliament by withholding information, attempting to stifle scrutiny by prorogation and in effect lying to the public. Parliament must be recalled immediately.
The problem with scenario planning with something like the economy or a country is that there is enormous scope for things to go very badly wrong. For example, the worst case scenario might be war with the Europeans, as unlikely as that is.

That being the case, you have to draw the line somewhere in planning for what is a "reasonable" worst case scenario, i.e. a scenario that is unlikely but not so unlikely as to be unreasonable to plan for. I actually think you're reading too much into the differences in terminology; you can have a "base" worst case scenario for exactly the above reason.
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Old September 19th, 2019, 08:56 AM   #2983
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Brexiter interviewed on BBC prepared to die to ensure we leave the EU, goes along the lines of:

Interviewer: So if the insulin supply you rely on is affected, leaving you without any, is that an acceptable consequence of leaving with no deal?
Brexiter: Yes. I just want out, we voted to leave, we must leave.

Brexiters across the country more than happy it seems for children, even in their own family, to die in the name of Brexit. Insane.
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Old September 19th, 2019, 10:29 AM   #2984
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I think stating that 'brexiteers across the country are happy for children to die' based on one comment from one person, is a great example of just how ridiculous people have become off the back of this whole sorry scenario.

Talk about generalising much!!
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Old September 19th, 2019, 10:40 AM   #2985
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It is definitely an extreme position to take. You'd rather impact your health and possibly die as a consequence to leave something you have generally no contact with day to day. Rather different to dying for a cause however.

It is rather peculiar.

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The problem with scenario planning with something like the economy or a country is that there is enormous scope for things to go very badly wrong. For example, the worst case scenario might be war with the Europeans, as unlikely as that is.

That being the case, you have to draw the line somewhere in planning for what is a "reasonable" worst case scenario, i.e. a scenario that is unlikely but not so unlikely as to be unreasonable to plan for. I actually think you're reading too much into the differences in terminology; you can have a "base" worst case scenario for exactly the above reason.
Maybe but then it does beg the question, why rename the document for the public version which did not initially included the word worst?
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Old September 19th, 2019, 10:46 AM   #2986
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I would suggest that most brexiteers would see warnings of lack of drugs (for example) as scaremongering akin to the pre referendum warnings that never came to fruition.

This may well be a naive and flippant attitude but it's understandable.

So instead of leading the interviewer into a back and forth of 'he said, she said, oh yes it will, oh no wont' discussion. They simply said 'yeah, I'll take the risk.'
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Old September 19th, 2019, 04:53 PM   #2987
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I think stating that 'brexiteers across the country are happy for children to die' based on one comment from one person, is a great example of just how ridiculous people have become off the back of this whole sorry scenario.

Talk about generalising much!! [IMG class=inlineimg]https://www.skyscrapercity.com/images/smilies/lol.gif[/IMG]
Yes, let’s not go mad. They’re prepared for other people’s children to die, and to strip them of rights that they themselves have had for the last forty years. They might not be happy, but it’s not enough to change their minds. They’re also okay with cancer treatment being adversely affected, understaffing at hospitals, bringing back the IRA, damage to national security, and as one survey revealed in which they actually asked them, a large percentage would support Brexit if it meant a member of their own family losing their job.

Last edited by Astonian; September 19th, 2019 at 04:59 PM.
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Old September 19th, 2019, 05:07 PM   #2988
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I would suggest that most brexiteers would see warnings of lack of drugs (for example) as scaremongering akin to the pre referendum warnings that never came to fruition.

This may well be a naive and flippant attitude but it's understandable.

So instead of leading the interviewer into a back and forth of 'he said, she said, oh yes it will, oh no wont' discussion. They simply said 'yeah, I'll take the risk.'
The pound is lower than predicted, it’s costing £600m a week, factories are closing, businesses are relocating to the EU, investment has slumped and a trillion pounds worth of assets has been moved out of the country. Some estimates suggest it’s cost 250,000 jobs, but let’s not forget that even worse effects were softened by the Bank of England’s emergency budget straight after the vote.
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Old September 19th, 2019, 06:14 PM   #2989
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Cost 250,000 jobs but unemployment at record low levels and wage growth above inflation

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Old September 19th, 2019, 09:14 PM   #2990
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Cost 250,000 jobs but unemployment at record low levels and wage growth above inflation

[IMG class=inlineimg]https://www.skyscrapercity.com/images/smilies/yawnee.gif[/IMG]
I’ll tell my neighbour in his new high-rise council flat. That’ll cheer him up. To be fair though, he did vote to lose his own job and home,so I’ve only got sympathy for his kids. Let’s hope they’re not diabetic or might benefit from early cancer diagnosis and treatment, or he really will feel guilty. Never mind though, I’m sure he’ll get a couple of hours work a week in the gig economy, and be counted as employed, like millions of others.
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Old September 19th, 2019, 11:55 PM   #2991
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It is definitely an extreme position to take. You'd rather impact your health and possibly die as a consequence to leave something you have generally no contact with day to day. Rather different to dying for a cause however.
To be honest I think the poor chap is so wrapped up in Brexit bias that he’s lost the ability to reason with any sanity. Unfortunately there’s a large proportion of society who feel the same way, in this Brexit “we must leave come what may” bubble lapping up whatever the Daily Mail feeds them that morning.
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Old September 20th, 2019, 07:36 AM   #2992
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Cost 250,000 jobs but unemployment at record low levels and wage growth above inflation

Thank you for pointing out that unemployment is higher than it would have otherwise been.

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Old September 20th, 2019, 08:13 PM   #2993
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If you amputated the leg of a Brexiteer they'd say if we hadn't left the EU, they'd have lost both legs. They're that mad.
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 05:00 PM   #2994
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I think it's fair to say this thread has totally lost it.

There is clearly such deep anger amongst some remainers that they are making comments that are not only absurd, but if directed with such generalising, assumption and venom at any other group could get them into trouble.
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 11:12 PM   #2995
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Channel 4 should be interesting. Missed 10mins of it but it should give a good insight.
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Old September 24th, 2019, 12:53 PM   #2996
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Supreme Court rules against the Government for prorogation.
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Old September 24th, 2019, 04:40 PM   #2997
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Supreme Court rules against the Government for prorogation.
A great day for democracy, a bad one for those who don’t really understand it.
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Old September 24th, 2019, 05:36 PM   #2998
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Yep, they can all go back to bickering and point scoring and getting absolutely nowhere. I was quite enjoying the break myself.

Also I hope this doesn't prematurely end the Labour conference. The hilarity of Corbyn's giveaway tweets was so entertaining, I was excited waiting for what was next. A 100% payrise for every teacher, nurse and copper, free electric cars for everyone, free money and food for all mums, pensioners and asylum seekers, roll roll up for a ticket on the gravy train!!
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Old September 24th, 2019, 06:19 PM   #2999
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Old September 24th, 2019, 07:45 PM   #3000
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Yep, they can all go back to bickering and point scoring and getting absolutely nowhere. I was quite enjoying the break myself.

Also I hope this doesn't prematurely end the Labour conference. The hilarity of Corbyn's giveaway tweets was so entertaining, I was excited waiting for what was next. A 100% payrise for every teacher, nurse and copper, free electric cars for everyone, free money and food for all mums, pensioners and asylum seekers, roll roll up for a ticket on the gravy train!!
See this Is what I don’t understand about the tribalism.

Boris Gravy train to date £2.1bn on the border, £1.85bn for NHS equipment, £3.6bn for justice. £3bn to 5bn on broadband, £4.6bn on schools.

All of which is equally uncosted. If you think Labours spending commitments are a joke then you must also think The Torries spending commitments are equally as laughable.

But on Brexit, I think it means the end of the Torries is getting closer and the end of Johnson can’t be far away. The party of law and order now have a leader that has acted unlawfully.
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