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View Poll Results: How will you vote on June 23?
Leave 30 27.78%
Leave but unlikely to vote 0 0%
Stay 68 62.96%
Stay but unlikely to vote 6 5.56%
Undecided but will vote 3 2.78%
Undecided and unlikely to vote 1 0.93%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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Old June 14th, 2019, 01:02 AM   #11601
geogregor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dusty Hare View Post
If I was an overseas investor I would see this and think the UK is actually a pretty safe country to take a punt on
Seriously?
Investors have no idea under what regulatory regime they will trade in a few months, what trading barriers might arise etc. And you call it "pretty safe country" to invest???
Well I guess if you compare with the war zones or poor developing nations then yes, sure, but it is rather low bar I would say

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Ultimately, Brexit and the way it has been handled doesn't look great but many people around the world think we are a bit peculiar anyway. I think they will expect us to get over this peculiar episode and then to carry on as before.
A bit peculiar... right...

That might as well have been true in the past. Nowadays plenty of people think that Brits gone outright mad. I occasionally follow media coverage in Poland. It is worth mentioning that Poland is not precisely euro-enthusiastic country, plenty of people there have their own issues with the EU. There are also many absolute idiots, on pare with Johnson
But it doesn't change the fact that many people look at Britain and ask: WTF? What happened to the calculated pragmatism?

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Originally Posted by Captain Chaos View Post
Other countries are on the spectrum too. China, Russia, half the world's going mad and it seems to be infectious.
Sure, other countries gone bonkers too. But I guess people had higher expectations towards Britain, country known for its pragmatism, efficient bureaucracy etc.
What happened here? Britain nowadays behaves like a bloke who stopped using brain and started thinking with his di*ck.



I'm really puzzled by the believe that Britain simply can do nothing wrong. That seems to be believe of Dusty and Bowater. Britain is great country, it always was, it always will, period. Regardless of any decisions made.
You must be aware that history is littered with countries which lost their positions, some of them disappeared, some disintegrated, others simply lost importance. There is no law of physics saying that Britain can't go that way.

Now, I'm not saying it will but I would be careful with statements that Britain will be OK simply because it is has (had) efficient institutions and large economy. Institutions can be fragile... especially if ideology trumps pragmatism.

As for the current shape of the economy. There are many positive indicators, crash didn't happen, all good so far. I'm genuinely glad. Dusty makes good point that politicians preoccupied with Brexit might be just meddling less (by for example not cancelling HS2) which might help. For a while, important decisions will have to be made eventually .
Also, economy the size of the UK has certain inertia. Some downturns can be dramatic (like the 2008 banking crisis) but others can be extended in time and last years, if not decades.

I seriously fear for the economy if we have a hard Brexit. Bowater might dismiss it as much as he likes but it won't change the fact it will be turbulent. The only questions is if the turbulence will last months, years or decades and how much we will lose in the process. 5%? 10? 20?

More importantly, what will we get in exchange apart from some proud flag waving?
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Old June 14th, 2019, 07:21 AM   #11602
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Can't wait to hear the end of this Brexit bullsh!t. It's in the news incessantly and I'm on the other side of the planet. I pray Boris or Nigel are voted in, ignore the 'great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies' and get it done already. If only so the country can focus on something different and we can hear something else about Broken Britain.
Boris or Nigel won't put a stop the arguments over Brexit. Leaving without a deal is just the start of trying to cobble together arrangements to patch up the mess that will be left. Whatever happens (deal, no deal, no Brexit) Britain is going to be sorting out this mess for years to come. 3 years so far and plenty more to come.

Just rewards really for those that thought that you could take a highly developed, complex first world economy and undo over 40 years of increasing economic, financial, regulatory, legislative, commercial, environmental integration easily and quickly.
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Old June 14th, 2019, 03:05 PM   #11603
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I think Geogregor, that what you get more than some proud flag waving, is even more stupid flag waving. It's all about sentiment versus reason (~ and therefore 100% comparable to what's happening in the US).
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Old June 14th, 2019, 07:11 PM   #11604
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I think Geogregor, that what you get more than some proud flag waving, is even more stupid flag waving. It's all about sentiment versus reason (~ and therefore 100% comparable to what's happening in the US).
With all due respect, Trump isn't trying to take out his country out of the worlds largest single free trade area. The effects of Brexit have and will continue to ricochet, down the generations for decades to come. Whereas the next president that is elected in next year would be able to reverse the decisions made by the incumbent of the white house.
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Old June 16th, 2019, 02:07 PM   #11605
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I see this thread has not changed one bit.
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Old June 16th, 2019, 02:40 PM   #11606
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I see this thread has not changed one bit.
It is moving at a much slower pace (which is nice). Expect things to get livelier in the coming months though, especially with the impending Boris Johnson premiership (my God that was difficult to type).
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Old June 16th, 2019, 04:30 PM   #11607
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The UK played well the europeans in April

Basically the Conservatives and Labour pretended to start talking to each other: this is something the europeans always thought would be the solution out of the impasse, a continental-styled agreement between the biggest parties in parliament. That is how many things are done in the continent, but not in the UK.

However it did the trick: the EU gave 6 more months, mostly to make sure the Conservatives and Labour had time to sort out an agreement.

5 minutes after the extension was given (ok a few days) of course the negotiations broke out, because neither had really honestly thought to negotiate in good faith.

Now almost half of the extension will pass just to decide the next prime minister.
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Old Yesterday, 10:13 AM   #11608
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As the Tory leadership race rumbles on:

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Old Yesterday, 10:37 AM   #11609
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Originally Posted by SE9 View Post
As the Tory leadership race rumbles on:
Actually if I have to look for positives of the whole Brexit mess then destroying conservative party, reunification of Ireland and independent Scotland might not be that bad.


It will probably also finally force reform of our antiquated parliament and many other institutions as well as change to the current two party system.

Anyway, political realignment on these islands is long overdue.
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Old Yesterday, 12:52 PM   #11610
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Bring it on. The hilarity of Boris in power. Or Nige's commitment in following the will of the people. If either outcome ruins the Conservative party, who cares? They're hardly any different from Labour who seem equally happy to skim the cream off the top.

It's about time things got a damn good shake-up. Two party politics hardly affords voters a discernible choice when it's so hard to differentiate what each party stands for. Same story here in Australia and the US.

Pollocks.
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Old Yesterday, 08:22 PM   #11611
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I actually think Rory Stewart would be the only one capable of actually delivering Brexit. His moderate appearance could sell a hard Brexit to MPs. BoJo - no way.
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Old Yesterday, 11:55 PM   #11612
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I actually think Rory Stewart would be the only one capable of actually delivering Brexit. His moderate appearance could sell a hard Brexit to MPs. BoJo - no way.
He should not be underestimated. He is that rare thing I think, an honest, intelligent, decent and sincere politician. He won't get any further in this leadership election although he ought to get a big promotion under the next leader.
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Old Today, 08:25 AM   #11613
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I actually think Rory Stewart would be the only one capable of actually delivering Brexit. His moderate appearance could sell a hard Brexit to MPs. BoJo - no way.
I'm not sure he'd be able to deliver it to be honest. His plan seems to be to bring back the same deal and try to persuade Labour MPs like Lisa Nandy to vote for it. Then if that fails to have a citizen's assembly type of get together to persuade the citizens to support the deal in the hope that will change MPs minds. Maybe a new face would be able to tip the balance but I'm not sure that things aren't too far gone for that. There are also too many tory MPs who seem to have convinced themselves that the only real Brexit is a no deal one. At least Stewart recognises that the only to way to leave with a deal is to pass May's deal. The other candidates are all in cloud cuckoo land with their renegotiation strategy.

Sir Ivan Rogers popped up again yesterday to make a speech - as ever it's worth reading. He seems to think we're on the route to no deal:

Quote:
This is why serious players in Brussels and certain capitals have concluded, as have I, that we are now rather likely to be headed for a breakdown to ‘no deal’. The cynical amongst them remark that the best political route to ‘no deal’, given that the current Commons evidently won’t vote for it, is to demand the revision of the Withdrawal Agreement replacing the backstop with the so-called ‘alternative arrangements’ set out in the Brady and Malthouse amendments, the handling of which so grievously damaged the previous Prime Minister’s reputation in capitals earlier in the year.

Once that proposal is duly rejected – which it will be – you say you have been rebuffed by the intransigent, faceless technocrats of Brussels and thwarted by a Parliament dominated by Remainers. And you have teed up an election in which the Conservative manifesto seeks public backing for the proposition that we either get those alternative arrangements in lieu of the backstop or we go to ‘no deal’. Within weeks. That might skewer Mr Farage and force the Labour Party to have a policy…Though of course nothing, of course, prevents Labour writing one of its very own unicorns into an Election manifesto. And nothing prevents Mr Farage saying ‘you promised to leave by now and you haven’t’.

The assumption that a General Election is therefore coming really rather soon – and much sooner than anyone is prepared or incentivised to admit – is now as widespread in other capitals as it is with the bookies here. The political change is that we are indeed likely to have a prime minister who would ultimately be prepared to go to ‘no deal’, even if constantly shedding crocodile tears at being most reluctantly forced to by beastly foreign forces.
......
The reality is that the prospect of ‘no deal’ now holds many fewer terrors for the 27 than much of the Tory leadership and membership thinks. I personally think it should hold a few more terrors, but I am not persuaded it does. Why? Because ‘no deal’ hands the control of the next phase of the process to the 27. It will ‘take back control’ of the precise legal framework of the economic relationship because it will legislate at 27 – without consultation with us – the economic framework under which we will have to operate.

It is just utterly untrue to say, as key Brexiteers continue to, that all non-member countries’ trade with the EU is conducted under WTO rules, ‘so what we have lost?’ This is a woeful and willful misunderstanding of how developed countries trade with each other. Even those without an FTA with the EU have a plethora of lengthy complex negotiated legal sectoral arrangements which deliver far more access to the EU market than do WTO multilateral commitments. The very fact that our Trade Secretary is so keen to try and roll over – unchanged – the provisions of existing EU FTAs with third countries suggests he knows the difference between WTO terms and good FTA ones, even for countries with which we do a tiny fraction of the trade we do with our behemoth neighbour.

Deliberately to walk out of the deepest internal market on the planet without a replacement looser preferential deal in place is an act of economic lunacy. We shall need A preferential deal. Even if it is one appreciably looser – and hence reduces trade and investment flows from today, because we cannot live with supranational legislation, adjudication and enforcement which EU membership entails. No deal’ is not a destination. It is simply a volatile and uncertain transitional state of purgatory, in which you have forfeited all the leverage to the other side because you start with a blank slate of no preferential arrangements, and live, in the interim – probably for years – on a basis they legislate – in their own interests. At 27. Without you in the room, and without consulting you politically. So much of our debate about ‘being ready here for ‘no deal’ therefore totally misses the point.

continued in link
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...ikely-outcome/
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Old Today, 09:43 AM   #11614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty View Post

Sir Ivan Rogers popped up again yesterday to make a speech - as ever it's worth reading. He seems to think we're on the route to no deal:
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...ikely-outcome/

That is a really good article, even if long one. But sometimes you have to write long, not everything can be contained in one neat paragraph. Sadly most people have problems with reading something longer than a Twit or Facebook comment. And politicians adjust to that...

It is grim reading. We are pretty much screwed. The only thing in play is by how much.
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Old Today, 01:31 PM   #11615
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Imho, Stewart could be able to get May's deal through with Labour votes and maybe, maybe, a second referendum attached to it.
Otherwise, with the other unicorn leaders, it's no deal, which I still think won't happen (wishful thinking?) or revoking, both with huge costs, economical and/or political.
Conservatives are screwed in any scenario, as a party.
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Old Today, 04:36 PM   #11616
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geogregor View Post
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...ikely-outcome/

That is a really good article, even if long one. But sometimes you have to write long, not everything can be contained in one neat paragraph. Sadly most people have problems with reading something longer than a Twit or Facebook comment. And politicians adjust to that...

It is grim reading. We are pretty much screwed. The only thing in play is by how much.
It was a good read but it was not exhaustive. A UK government might not be able to avoid tariffs in all cases but other actions can compensate. For example tax cuts for affected industries, and new export markets.

America has placed many tariffs on Chinese goods, does China still export to America? Yes. Have Chinese exports collapsed? No.

If the UK economy succeeds in adjusting to a no deal world, with the help of government action, then negotiations between the UK and EU will be far less uneven then argued.

Many large firms will argue that such adjustment is hard and therefore best to avoid no deal Brexit but if they find it does happen they will be industrious in protecting their profits.
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Old Today, 05:13 PM   #11617
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It was a good read but it was not exhaustive. A UK government might not be able to avoid tariffs in all cases but other actions can compensate. For example tax cuts for affected industries, and new export markets.

America has placed many tariffs on Chinese goods, does China still export to America? Yes. Have Chinese exports collapsed? No.

If the UK economy succeeds in adjusting to a no deal world, with the help of government action, then negotiations between the UK and EU will be far less uneven then argued.

Many large firms will argue that such adjustment is hard and therefore best to avoid no deal Brexit but if they find it does happen they will be industrious in protecting their profits.
I admire your optimism. I really do.
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Old Today, 08:11 PM   #11618
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Conservatives are screwed in any scenario, as a party.
And who says that Brexit has no upside ?

Seriously, I think the one positive from Brexit could be a complete upending of both main parties who seem to think they have some god-given right to rule the country in perpetuity.

As Captain Chaos says above

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It's about time things got a damn good shake-up.
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