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View Poll Results: How will you vote on June 23?
Leave 30 27.78%
Leave but unlikely to vote 0 0%
Stay 68 62.96%
Stay but unlikely to vote 6 5.56%
Undecided but will vote 3 2.78%
Undecided and unlikely to vote 1 0.93%
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Old January 19th, 2020, 03:44 PM   #13301
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The NYT went off on its 'kick the Brits' articles at the same time as a certain Mark Thompson of the BBC, took over as editor.

...Strange that. I mean, it can't possibly be that having a Metropolitan, left wing, ex Guardian journalist luvvie running the thing, could possibly have anything to do with it.
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Old January 19th, 2020, 04:09 PM   #13302
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Great article on the benefits of staying in the Single Market: https://www.sajidjavid.com/news/saji...itish-business
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Old January 20th, 2020, 04:32 PM   #13303
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Actually most of the failure of the EU is because of the 'sovereignty principle of the states themselves. National bureaucrats and politicians simply dont want to give power to the EU, since it deprives them of power and makes their jobs less important. So, blame you're national government in many wrongdoings, in stead of the EU. And for instance, in one of it's failure files, agriculture, it's because of France's influence, and the other, fossil fuelled cars, it's Germany. A strong EU should apply one system of legislation, in all states, have one army, one main language, one border and so on. It isn't difficult to make it work, but as history shows, the unification will probably only succeed once there is a life threatening situation from outside.
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Old January 20th, 2020, 05:05 PM   #13304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geogregor View Post
I always suspected that a lot of enthusiasm for Bexit is ideological and has very little to do with trade or economy, which you kind of confirm...
You say this as if it's some sneaking suspicion you had, as if the Leave campaign and it's supporters weren't shouting from the rooftops that this was a matter of principle more than anything else. In fact the polling done around and after the vote demonstrates that the vast majority of Leave voters expected to take an economic hit from Brexit, at least in the short term. The realigning of British politics is not about communities that have been left behind, it's about a working class that is too patriotic and socially conservative to be represented successfully by leftist identitarians or open-borders globalists.
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Old January 20th, 2020, 05:12 PM   #13305
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Originally Posted by Ebeneezer_Goode View Post
it's about a working class that is too patriotic and socially conservative to be represented successfully by leftist identitarians or open-borders globalists.
The ever-increasing rate of digital technology and our shrinking world of communications and increasing transfer of data means the latter will always prevail in the long term.
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Old January 20th, 2020, 05:16 PM   #13306
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Originally Posted by openhaard View Post
Actually most of the failure of the EU is because of the 'sovereignty principle of the states themselves. National bureaucrats and politicians simply dont want to give power to the EU, since it deprives them of power and makes their jobs less important. So, blame you're national government in many wrongdoings, in stead of the EU. And for instance, in one of it's failure files, agriculture, it's because of France's influence, and the other, fossil fuelled cars, it's Germany. A strong EU should apply one system of legislation, in all states, have one army, one main language, one border and so on. It isn't difficult to make it work, but as history shows, the unification will probably only succeed once there is a life threatening situation from outside.


It isnt difficult to get a variety of very different countries to agree on one rule fits all?

Brave comment to make
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Old January 20th, 2020, 08:07 PM   #13307
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Originally Posted by DarJoLe View Post
The ever-increasing rate of digital technology and our shrinking world of communications and increasing transfer of data means the latter will always prevail in the long term.
I think this is a misreading of history and of human nature.

You are essentially paraphrasing Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis, which has been proved tragically wrong - and for which he has had to publicly repent for the last couple of decades.

Globalisation didn't herald the dawning of a new age of peace and international brotherhood, just as diverse populations tend not to integrate.

Samuel Huntingdon's Clash of Civilisations has so-far proved a far more prescient analysis. Writing in the 90s, he foresaw that the collapse of the cold war and the rise of global capitalism would lead to geopolitics reforming along cultural lines.

Not only that, but digitally connected societies tend to be more polarised and tribal, not less.

That's why all the political running is being made by nationalists all over the world.

Nationalism is a necessary and welcome bulwark against identitarian tribalism, which produces distrusting societies, racial animus, terrorism and a host of other horrendous problems.

The nation state is making a comeback, because the majority of people want to belong to a greater whole, regardless of class, race, religion, sex, sexuality etc and reject the divisiveness that globalisation has bred.

We can identify with a national flag and see each other as fellow citizens with a shared national culture, economy and future - or we can identify as a person of a particular tribe, and see our neighbours as "the other". The former seems to me a much more healthy state of affairs.
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Old January 20th, 2020, 08:10 PM   #13308
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Originally Posted by openhaard View Post
Actually most of the failure of the EU is because of the 'sovereignty principle of the states themselves. National bureaucrats and politicians simply dont want to give power to the EU, since it deprives them of power and makes their jobs less important. So, blame you're national government in many wrongdoings, in stead of the EU. And for instance, in one of it's failure files, agriculture, it's because of France's influence, and the other, fossil fuelled cars, it's Germany. A strong EU should apply one system of legislation, in all states, have one army, one main language, one border and so on. It isn't difficult to make it work, but as history shows, the unification will probably only succeed once there is a life threatening situation from outside.
Yes, this is one of the fundamental flaws of the EU. It is not powerful enough to function properly, and not popular enough to secure a mandate for more control. It is stuck.

"It isn't difficult to make it work" if you ride rough-shod over the wishes of the public. But that is the China model.
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Old January 21st, 2020, 12:35 AM   #13309
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Originally Posted by bazzup View Post
You are essentially paraphrasing Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis, which has been proved tragically wrong - and for which he has had to publicly repent for the last couple of decades.

Globalisation didn't herald the dawning of a new age of peace and international brotherhood, just as diverse populations tend not to integrate.

Samuel Huntingdon's Clash of Civilisations has so-far proved a far more prescient analysis. Writing in the 90s, he foresaw that the collapse of the cold war and the rise of global capitalism would lead to geopolitics reforming along cultural lines.
I wrote my masters thesis on this. Firstly you're mis-interpreting Fukuyama. The end of history did not mean the end of interesting times. He simply says that all states will eventually adopt the combination of liberal democracy and capitalist economy.

As for Huntingdon, the evidence remains mixed. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc, have reached Fukuyama's end of history, despite coming from an entirely non-Western civilization.
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Old January 21st, 2020, 12:37 AM   #13310
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DarJoLe View Post
The ever-increasing rate of digital technology and our shrinking world of communications and increasing transfer of data means the latter will always prevail in the long term.
That doesn't mean that political power will tend towards a supranational quasi-state that EU leaders have in mind.
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Old January 21st, 2020, 12:44 AM   #13311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Langur View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by bazzup View Post
You are essentially paraphrasing Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis, which has been proved tragically wrong - and for which he has had to publicly repent for the last couple of decades.

Globalisation didn't herald the dawning of a new age of peace and international brotherhood, just as diverse populations tend not to integrate.

Samuel Huntingdon's Clash of Civilisations has so-far proved a far more prescient analysis. Writing in the 90s, he foresaw that the collapse of the cold war and the rise of global capitalism would lead to geopolitics reforming along cultural lines.
I wrote my masters thesis on this. Firstly you're mis-interpreting Fukuyama. The end of history did not mean the end of interesting times. He simply says that all states will eventually adopt the combination of liberal democracy and capitalist economy.

As for Huntingdon, the evidence remains mixed. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc, have reached Fukuyama's end of history, despite coming from an entirely non-Western civilization.
Yes, to be fair, darjole didn’t claim it would be a peaceful settlement, that was my embellishment.

Japan and Korea have not adopted western-style liberal democracy or free market economics though. There has been no real convergence. They have very different models to the West, would you not agree?

And the South China Sea is a powder keg because China asserts its civilisational sphere of influence.

From Turkey to Russia to China to the Islamic world and the decline of western hegemony, Huntingdon looks pretty accurate to me.

Last edited by bazzup; January 21st, 2020 at 01:00 AM.
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Old January 21st, 2020, 12:57 AM   #13312
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Originally Posted by bazzup View Post
Japan and Korea have not adopted western-style liberal democracy or free market economics. There has been no convergence. They have very different models and the South China Sea is a powder keg because China asserts its civilisational sphere of influence.
Fukuyama never claimed the world was heading for universal laissez faire. Capitalist economies aren't necessarily free market, and Western countries like France are also big on 'dirigisme' (state intervention).

And I disagree that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are not western style democracies. They have elections, and the ruling parties change as a result of those elections.

China's political ideas are nationalist and communist, and both originate in the West. They're no more a product of Chinese civilization than liberal democracy.

China's desire to dominate its neighbours wouldn't be a case of clashing civilizations anyway.
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Old January 21st, 2020, 10:10 AM   #13313
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Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bazzup View Post
Japan and Korea have not adopted western-style liberal democracy or free market economics. There has been no convergence. They have very different models and the South China Sea is a powder keg because China asserts its civilisational sphere of influence.
Fukuyama never claimed the world was heading for universal laissez faire. Capitalist economies aren't necessarily free market, and Western countries like France are also big on 'dirigisme' (state intervention).

And I disagree that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are not western style democracies. They have elections, and the ruling parties change as a result of those elections.

China's political ideas are nationalist and communist, and both originate in the West. They're no more a product of Chinese civilization than liberal democracy.

China's desire to dominate its neighbours wouldn't be a case of clashing civilizations anyway.
China is less a country than it is an ethnocentric civilisation. The Han have a powerful sense of their own civilisational identity and didn’t need to import that from the West. And if one ethnic identity seeks to dominate another one, that is the definition of a clash of civilisations.
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Old January 21st, 2020, 12:05 PM   #13314
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China is less a country than it is an ethnocentric civilisation. The Han have a powerful sense of their own civilisational identity and didn’t need to import that from the West. And if one ethnic identity seeks to dominate another one, that is the definition of a clash of civilisations.
But the whole point is that Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are part of the same civilizational grouping as China, so any potential conflict among them would not be between different civilizations, which Huntingdon claimed we were heading towards.
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Old January 21st, 2020, 01:55 PM   #13315
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But the whole point is that Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are part of the same civilizational grouping as China, so any potential conflict among them would not be between different civilizations, which Huntingdon claimed we were heading towards.
Huntington regarded Japan as having a distinct civilisation from China or Korea:
  • The Buddhist areas of Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Thailand are identified as separate from other civilizations, but Huntington believes that they do not constitute a major civilization in the sense of international affairs.
  • The Confucian civilization of China, the Koreas, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam. This group also includes the Chinese diaspora, especially in relation to Southeast Asia.
  • Hindu civilization, located chiefly in India, Bhutan and Nepal, and culturally adhered to by the global Indian diaspora.
  • Japan, considered a hybrid of Chinese civilization and older Altaic patterns.

So China may lay claim to (and will possibly invade) Vietnam and Taiwan as part of their expansionist ambitions, but Sino-Japanese tensions are a clash of civilisations.

Last edited by bazzup; January 21st, 2020 at 02:19 PM.
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Old January 21st, 2020, 03:04 PM   #13316
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With only two weeks to go before Brexit, London businesses are shedding staff and closing offices, in preparation for the economic calamity that awaits - particularly the high-skill jobs that our economy needs to attract. Eh? Oh...

Job vacancies rise in London despite 2019 Brexit uncertainty.
APSCo figures positive.
Jan 20, 2020

Research from the Association of Professional Staffing Companies (APSCo) has found that professional job vacancies have risen by 16.7 per cent across London since this time last year. The rise has come despite Brexit-related political and economic uncertainty dominating 2019.

The data, provided by business intelligence specialist Vacancysoft shows growth in a number of sectors. Accountancy roles take the lead, climbing 59 per cent, partly due to aggressive hiring from the Big Four accounting firms. At KPMG, for instance, hiring has increased 111 per cent year on year.

The tech industry continues to dominate job roles, accounting for 41.8 per cent of all vacancies. Data roles were up 92 per cent – the fastest of all occupations. This is down to the continued implementation of AI in a number of fields. For instance, Amazon recently announced plans to recruit up to 2000 people to their London HQ in areas such as Data Science and AI.

“Despite the political and economic uncertainty which dominated much of 2019, it’s great to see hiring activity flourishing,” said Rina Durban, member relations manager at APSCo. “With sharp growth in many sectors – London is set to continue offering stellar opportunities for professionals. The fact that the city was once again the leading hub in Europe for VC funding is a promising sign going forward.”


Buoyant jobs market eases pressure on Bank of England to cut rates

Number in employment hits joint record high of 32.9 million in three months to November

Britain’s jobs market staged a stronger than expected recovery in the three months to November, according to official figures, easing pressure on Bank of England policymakers to cut interest rates at their meeting next week.

The number of people in employment jumped by 208,000 over the period to a joint record high of 32.9 million, nearly double the 110,000 increase forecast by economists.

The figures from the Office for National Statistics appeared to show a slowdown in job creation over recent months had turned a corner.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-england-rates
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Old January 21st, 2020, 03:10 PM   #13317
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OK, but the jobs data is backwards looking and Brexit hasn't happened yet (TM). More importantly, Brexit has dealt a hammer blow to business confidence in the UK - particularly among the global business community, who are running scared from Britain's chaotic and uncertain future. EU CEOs in particular regard the UK with pity and contempt. With two weeks to go, the Davos crowd are working out how to shift their focus away from the UK. Eh? Oh...

UK shrugs off Brexit uncertainty with backing of global CEOs

PwC poll [launched at Davos] shows Britain’s stability makes it increasingly attractive place to invest


Mon 20 Jan 2020

The UK was rated the fourth most important growth target for CEOs after the US, China and Germany.

Government hopes of an economic boost from an easing of Brexit uncertainty have been boosted by a poll showing that the UK is increasingly attractive to global businesses searching for growth and investment opportunities.

The poll of almost 1,600 chief executives, by the consultancy and accounting firm PwC, found that at a time of growing nervousness the UK’s reputation for stability made it the fourth most important target for companies looking for markets.

PWC said the rebound in the UK’s attractiveness had been particularly marked among German, French and Italian chief executives and had returned to levels last seen in 2015, the year before the EU referendum.

Overall, the UK was the joint fourth most important growth target for CEOs after the US, China and Germany.

The interest in the UK came at a time when more than half the respondents to the survey – conducted last autumn – said they believed the rate of global growth would decline. Many cited trade conflicts as a reason for caution.

Kevin Ellis, the chairman of PwC UK, said: “The findings provide timely perspective on the UK’s standing as a place to invest and do business. Viewed against the turbulent global backdrop, the UK is a beacon of relative stability.

“You can’t replicate natural advantages like our timezone and location between the US, Asia and the rest of Europe, but more than that the UK is a fair and trusted place to do business.”

PWC said CEOs globally had become gloomier after a year marked by slower growth and increasing protectionism. Only 27% said they were “very confident” in their own organisation’s growth over the next 12 months – the lowest level since 2009 and down from 35% last year. In the UK the figures were 26% and 37% respectively.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...of-global-ceos
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Old January 21st, 2020, 03:18 PM   #13318
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But confidence and employment figures are only pieces of the puzzle. To understand the true devastation that Brexit has brought you have to look at the big picture. After all, Bloomberg said that UK growth had decoupled from the rest of the G7, so that we a lot smaller than we would have been, vs their counter-factual trend line. We are now in the slow lane and it is doing great damage to our GDP. Eh? Oh no, not again...

IMF: UK ECONOMY TO OUTGROW EUROZONE

The IMF has predicted that the UK economy will outpace the Eurozone [for the next two years] in its new forecasts released yesterday. The forecasts, stretching two years in the future, show the UK’s growth will accelerate in both 2020 and 2021. Despite Brexit…

Only the US and Canada are set to grow faster out of the world’s major advanced economies. Brexit Britain is set to grow faster than Eurozone poster-states France and Germany, in fact the IMF is forecasting that 3 fastest growing countries in the G7 will all be outside the EU……

https://order-order.com/2020/01/21/i...grow-eurozone/
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Old January 21st, 2020, 10:36 PM   #13319
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Great article on the benefits of staying in the Single Market: https://www.sajidjavid.com/news/saji...itish-business
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Old January 21st, 2020, 10:40 PM   #13320
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This is a quiet shame. Particularly because it's self-inflicted.
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