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View Poll Results: How will you vote on June 23?
Leave 30 27.78%
Leave but unlikely to vote 0 0%
Stay 68 62.96%
Stay but unlikely to vote 6 5.56%
Undecided but will vote 3 2.78%
Undecided and unlikely to vote 1 0.93%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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Old January 17th, 2020, 09:25 AM   #13241
bazzup
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Yes, I'm sure we're all trying to achieve similar goals. Agriculture is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions so change needs to be made.

The U.K. has a bill to put before Parliament, tailored for our specific circumstances. That document you shared says "from 2020" - when will these changes be ratified and adopted? Will the EU reverse its disastrous limits on GM tech, which constrain R&D and prevent farmers using tech that reduces greenhouse gases?

Agility and specificity matters.

Last edited by bazzup; January 17th, 2020 at 09:41 AM.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 09:39 AM   #13242
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Brexit will bring disaster for our automotive and aerospace sectors. Big investors like Airbus and the Japanese and Korean car companies won't want to touch us:


UK electric van maker Arrival secures £85m from Kia and Hyundai
Investment from Korean giants means startup is valued at £3bn, giving it ‘unicorn’ status

The UK-based electric van maker Arrival has secured an £85m investment from South Korean car firms Hyundai and Kia – a cash injection which values the business at £3bn, defying the struggles of the British automotive industry.

The money will be used by Arrival to fund the next stage of its development as it prepares to scale up production of an electric van it hopes will rival those from more established manufacturers. The Korean companies will work with Arrival to develop new commercial vehicles with zero exhaust emissions.

The £3bn valuation means Arrival has achieved “unicorn” status, a new company valued at more than $1bn (£770m). This is a rare feat with British manufacturing.

The company was founded in 2015 by Denis Sverdlov, a Russian entrepreneur who sold Yota, a telecoms firm and smartphone manufacturer, in 2013. Arrival has since grown rapidly, expanding its UK and global workforce from 600 people in September to 800.

It has a factory in Banbury, but it has plans to build “microfactories” near major markets such as Los Angeles and New York. The company says those plants would be profitable producing only a few thousands vans a year.

Arrival’s first product is a battery-powered electric van, priced at the same level as comparable petrol or diesel vehicles. The van is targeted at urban delivery, which does not have long range requirements that would be limited by today’s battery technology. Prototype vans have already been trialled by delivery companies including Royal Mail, DHL and DPD, as well as BT.

Arrival’s rapid expansion is being watched with interest by other carmakers. Rather than emulate traditional assembly line processes, the company says its modular design means robots can assemble the vans in a single location. While designing and building a new vehicle platform is thought to cost traditional carmakers about £1bn, Arrival says it could do so for £100m.

Arrival has developed most of the vehicle itself, including software, components, materials and a modular “skateboard” platform. The company also has a longer-term ambition to enter the more competitive market for passenger cars.

The investment will also give Kia and Hyundai access to Arrival’s manufacturing technology, underlining the pressure more established automotive players are experiencing as the industry begins to move away from fossil fuels.

Youngcho Chi, Hyundai’s head of innovation, said: “This investment is part of an open innovation strategy pursued by Hyundai and Kia. We will accelerate investment and cooperation with companies with advanced technology such as Arrival, to respond to the rapidly changing eco-friendly vehicle market.”

Sverdlov described Arrival’s offering as “generation two electric vehicles” and said the £85m investment would allow global expansion.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ia-and-hyundai

Airbus remains committed to its UK operations despite previous warnings over Brexit and could expand operations in the country, its chief executive has said.

Guillaume Faury, who took the controls of pan-European plane-maker in April, said an annual address to industry figures and politicians that the business sees itself as a champion of national and regional prosperity in the UK.

Airbus has 13,500 staff in country and supports 100,000 British jobs through supply chains, Mr Faury said.

He added: “Airbus is committed to UK and committed to working with the new government to be a key partner to an ambitious industrial strategy, a strategy which supports an innovative and robust UK industrial base underpinned by R&D.

“I’m convinced the UK will remain committed to Airbus.

"We see great potential to improve and expand our operations in the UK this year."

Mr Faury's words represent the latest step in a retreat by Airbus, which makes wings for all of its airliners in the UK and previously raised major concerns about Brexit.

Almost exactly a year ago Mr Faury’s predecessor Tom Enders released a bombshell video saying that the UK's aerospace industry “stands on a precipice” and Airbus “is not dependent on the UK for our future”.

The claim last January was the most shrill of the company’s predictions on the impact of Brexit, which had become increasingly dire as its rhetoric ramped up. It had said that Airbus operations in Britain would become uncompetitive, meaning they would lose out on investment, and result in a drawn-out retreat from operations here.

But since Mr Faury took charge last year, the company has become more accommodating towards Britain's future outside the European Union.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...rnings-brexit/
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Old January 17th, 2020, 09:43 AM   #13243
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Why all this doom and gloom Bazzup?
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Old January 17th, 2020, 10:26 AM   #13244
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Britain doesn't make anything anymore and even if it does those jobs are rubbish low skill assembly jobs, but also Brexit will destroy our manufacturing base, which is a tragedy:

British manufacturers punch above their weight


Manufacturers often complain they are an underestimated, misunderstood sector of the economy, viewed by government and the wider public as old-fashioned and in decline.

However, not only do they have a great deal to be proud of, they also have a growing and important future as a key element of the nation’s economy. Paul Brooks, Head of Manufacturing at Santander, reports.

Britain’s manufacturing industry could be forgiven for channelling the spirit of Mark Twain, who famously declared, “Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated”.

We hear so much about the decline of manufacturing that many Britons think there’s little of it left, but the facts tell a very different story.

This is a growing sector of the economy, investing record sums, creating large numbers of jobs all around the country and competing strongly on the international stage.

Manufacturers certainly face challenges, from the uncertainties of Brexit to the slowing global economy. But the realities of modern British manufacturing and its advanced technologies are completely at odds with perceptions of industries on their last legs.

The figures speak for themselves. Data compiled as part of a partnership between Make UK and Santander reveals that UK manufacturing now accounts for:

£192bn of economic output,
employs 2.7 million people,
44% of the UK’s global exports,
which are collectively worth £273bn to the UK economy.

To put those statistics into context, the UK is now the ninth largest manufacturing nation in the world [up from 11 in 2013]. For a country with a relatively small population and relatively limited natural resources, that’s a remarkable achievement.

Does Brexit threaten this position? Well, it’s true that the UK’s manufacturing exports to the top seven European Union markets are worth £236bn, twice as much as we sell to the US, our single biggest customer.

British manufacturers want to be able to continue trading with EU partners on the best possible terms after Brexit – and expect to be able to do so.

However, it’s also worth pointing out that the ‘Made in Britain’ success story is a global phenomenon. Manufacturers sell £118bn worth of products every year to the US alone. Asia’s markets are becoming increasingly important, with China alone accounting for £23bn of British exports annually.

Indeed, sales of UK manufactured goods are increasing in markets all around the world: British businesses understand the imperative to exploit the potential of global markets.

As they seek to do so, the diversity and vibrancy of UK manufacturing will be an important advantage. It is led by the transport industry, including automotive, but spans sub-sectors including chemicals and pharmaceuticals, food and drink, machinery, metals, plastics, electronics and electrical equipment.

Each of these areas makes its own important contribution. Indeed, exports have been growing across the board.

In transport, overseas sales increased by an average of 7.4% a year between 2008 and 2018. Food and drink delivered export growth that was almost as impressive at 5.3% a year. Every sub-sector of manufacturing has seen its exports grow by more than 2% a year over the past decade.

There will be further growth to come from international markets, even in the most challenging areas of manufacturing, but it is also important to reflect on the importance of the sector to the domestic economy.

One crucial point often missed is that manufacturing is a truly nationwide activity. We tend to think of the industry as being concentrated in pockets of the country – the automotive sector in the Midlands, for example – but activity is dispersed to every region of the UK.

The Midlands is certainly an important centre, with 306,000 and 317,000 manufacturing jobs in the East and West of the region respectively, but other areas are crucial too.

There are 350,000 manufacturing jobs in the North West of England, for example, and 308,000 roles in Yorkshire and Humberside. Even in the South East of England (outside London), 277,000 people work in manufacturing.

In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, manufacturers are vital employers. In the latter two nations, manufacturing jobs account for more than 10% of the regional workforce. In Scotland, 11% of the region’s economic output comes from the manufacturing sector.

It’s important not to underestimate the importance of manufacturing as a wealth creation engine across all these areas. The sector underpins the local economies of many towns and regions – not least because manufacturing jobs so often offer more attractive salaries.

Indeed, this has been an important element of the transformation that UK manufacturing has undergone over the past 30 years, becoming a high-skilled industry that increasingly wants to recruit the brightest and most ambitious people.

The average job in manufacturing now pays an annual salary of £33,592 – that’s almost 13% more than the average pay level across the UK economy as a whole, at £29,832.

In other words, manufacturing is putting its money where its mouth is – and a commitment to people is not the only investment that the industry is making.

UK manufacturers now account for 15% of total business investment – and a remarkable 66% of the country’s research and development spending.

Some sectors have been increasing investment at a phenomenal rate. Electrical equipment businesses, for example, have invested an average of 14.7% more over the past decade; the transport sector has increased investment by 13.9%.

One dividend from this investment has been a step-change in manufacturing productivity in many regions of the country in recent years.

While the UK as a whole has struggled to improve productivity since the financial crisis of a decade ago, many manufacturers have made significant progress, securing important competitive advantage in international markets.

Inevitably, there is plenty more work to do. Britain’s manufacturers do not underestimate the challenges that lie ahead – and they understand the imperative to continue investing for the future.

Nevertheless, it’s crucial that we begin to break down the stereotypes and cliches that have grown up around UK manufacturing.

https://www.themanufacturer.com/arti...-their-weight/
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Old January 17th, 2020, 10:29 AM   #13245
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Ha! Kinda reminds of some Finnish politicians who a while ago changed their tune about Brexit now fearing the UK would become unfairly competitive and therefore a threat to the EU! Anyone gonna take the tour?

https://www.taxjustice.net/2020/01/1...-walking-tour/

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Tax Justice Network and the Global Alliance for Tax Justice cordially invite you to ‘The Brexit Tax Haven Walking Tour’. The tour will visit key sites in the City of London where three leading experts from the UK and the Global South will explain the imminent threat to developing economies posed by the ‘Singapore on the Thames’ strategy. It will feature perspectives from Dereje Alemayehu (Global Alliance for Tax Justice), John Christensen (Tax Justice Network) and Roosje Saalbrink (Womankind Worldwide).

There is serious concern that once it has exited the EU the British government will pursue its facilitation of abusive international tax practices by further deregulating its already over-sized financial sector and pursuing a ‘Singapore-on-the-Thames’ development strategy for the City of London.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 11:44 AM   #13246
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Doesn't every country have this made in "x manufacturing marketing story? And can they not, in the aftermath of quantitive easing show good economic results?
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Old January 17th, 2020, 01:19 PM   #13247
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The whole Singapore on Thames thing is funny. Either Brexit means economic suicide and disaster or it means growth to rub shoulders with one of the richest and most sophisticated economies in the world. Surely it can't be both?

I think it reveals that Merkel and Macron don't have a lot of faith in the competitiveness of their economies. Also, the UK is arguably the closest you get to Singapore in Europe already (except Ireland perhaps) if you consider low regulation, small state and big finance as key parts of the Singapore model.

EU politicians seem more worried about getting a successful alternative beaming on their doorstep than getting a bigger share of a prosperous and growing market. The zero sum thinking and inherent protectionism all feel very EU to me.

Btw, a fairly balanced view from the usually EU loving people at Bloomberg from October.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...oing-to-happen
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Old January 17th, 2020, 01:30 PM   #13248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bazzup View Post
The U.K. has a bill to put before Parliament, tailored for our specific circumstances. That document you shared says "from 2020" - when will these changes be ratified and adopted?
Currently on its first reading
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-cont...M:2018:392:FIN

The budget changes will be in place for the next MFF, starting 2021.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 01:44 PM   #13249
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Originally Posted by 10ND0N View Post
I think it reveals that Merkel and Macron don't have a lot of faith in the competitiveness of their economies. Also, the UK is arguably the closest you get to Singapore in Europe already (except Ireland perhaps) if you consider low regulation, small state and big finance as key parts of the Singapore model.
The World Economic Forum ranks Germany (and the Netherlands) as more competitive than the UK


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global...iveness_Report

It's funny when people argue that the UK is one of the most competitive economies in the world (which it is) whilst also arguing that it has been hamstrung by its 45 year membership of a supposedly uncompetitive EU, even though it's poorer (in fact the poorest of the northern European countries) and less competitive than other members who must surely be equally hamstrung.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 04:21 PM   #13250
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Doesn't every country have this made in "x manufacturing marketing story? And can they not, in the aftermath of quantitive easing show good economic results?
Of course, lots of countries have good manufacturing stories. The argument isn't whether the UK is the bestest country in the whole wide world, it's whether Brexit has heralded economic disaster, as foretold by Remain supporters on this thread and in the wider world.

The answer is no. There has been no such disaster. The UK economy has done rather well since the vote and continues to be robust even though we are mere days away from Brexit and have signed into law a hard stop on trade talks in a year.

Basically, Remainers have been entirely wrong. Not that they have the humility to admit it. They just move the goalposts.

"OK, sure, there has been no mass exodus. The Airbus factory has not closed. The airlines are not grounded. The cancer medicines are still available. The economy is not deep in recession... But, erm, you haven't sold your productivity puzzle! There are still some people who've not had their paperwork approved!"
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Old January 17th, 2020, 04:30 PM   #13251
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The World Economic Forum ranks Germany (and the Netherlands) as more competitive than the UK


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global...iveness_Report

It's funny when people argue that the UK is one of the most competitive economies in the world (which it is) whilst also arguing that it has been hamstrung by its 45 year membership of a supposedly uncompetitive EU, even though it's poorer (in fact the poorest of the northern European countries) and less competitive than other members who must surely be equally hamstrung.
I agree with much of this. The EU has not been a calamity for the UK. It has been rather good in many ways.

But, it does not follow that all countries in the EU must be equally hamstrung. The complaint of the Brexiteer is that the EU is designed to benefit countries with larger manufacturing bases and inflexible labour markets, rather than service-led economies with flexible labour markets.

Consequently, the EU has fully liberalised trade in goods and only partially liberalised trade in services. And they have struck trade agreements around the world that are rather better for machine tool exporters than they are for professional services. And they don't see the problem with freedom of movement, because most EU economies are hard to find work in and therefore don't suck in millions of migrant workers.

These are not hard points to understand, if you want to.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 05:44 PM   #13252
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Consequently, the EU has fully liberalised trade in goods and only partially liberalised trade in services. And they have struck trade agreements around the world that are rather better for machine tool exporters than they are for professional services. And they don't see the problem with freedom of movement, because most EU economies are hard to find work in and therefore don't suck in millions of migrant workers.
Can you show me a trade agreement anywhere in the world which provides for a greater liberalisation of trade in services than the EU's internal market ?
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Old January 17th, 2020, 06:09 PM   #13253
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Why is there a single market for goods but not services?
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Old January 17th, 2020, 06:50 PM   #13254
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Why is there a single market for goods but not services?
Maybe because it is simply more difficult? Single market is actually not that old and is constantly evolving.

Also, as far as I know, I admit I might be wrong, most of the trade deals around the world also concentrate on goods and not services. What countries do have comprehensive deals related to services?
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Old January 17th, 2020, 07:12 PM   #13255
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Can you show me a trade agreement anywhere in the world which provides for a greater liberalisation of trade in services than the EU's internal market ?
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Originally Posted by bazzup View Post
Why is there a single market for goods but not services?
That's obviously a "no" then.

As someone who's been spending much of the time since the Brexit vote working on restructuring group insurance schemes for multinationals in the UK, to separate out their EEA business which was previously underwritten in London but now has to be transferred back to the EU (in the case of the insurer I'm working for, they're being moved to an affiliate in Dublin) because the UK company will no longer be able to insure that business, it sounds somewhat strange to hear that there's apparently no single market in services.

The core principles are that Article 49 TFEU provides the freedom to establish a company in another EU country and Article 56 gives the freedom to provide or receive services in an EU country other than the one where the company or consumer is established. Is the single market in services complete ? No, it's an ongoing work in progress which is constantly developing. But there's no other trade deal currently that comes close.

Most FTAs in place currently around the world barely scratch the surface when it comes to services.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 07:27 PM   #13256
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The EU is supposed to be a single, free market. One economy.

Goods move freely, services do not. You know they do not. Your story is irrelevant. Whether there is a better arrangement elsewhere is irrelevant. There is not a free market in services and you must acknowledge that if we are to have a serious and honest conversation.

Now, as a direct result of this structural imbalance we have a huge trade deficit with the EU (as opposed to a trade surplus with the US and many other markets).
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Old January 17th, 2020, 07:42 PM   #13257
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This can hardly be news to anyone?! As Bazzup says its the core argument as to why its a poor trade off for the UK to stay in the EU as it is - and looking at where its heading.

It might have been a decent deal for the UK to join back in 1972 when Europe represented a significant and growing share of world trade and UK exports were heavily biased towards goods - and the EU was much smaller and not interfering in much outside trade. The world is a very different place in 2020.

I have spent a lot of time in Paris, Frankfurt and also Bruxelles and I can absolutely see why the whole thing must be surreal if thats where you are sitting.

Anyway, its now up to Boris to use the majority he got to get some good trade deals all around. At the moment, I think he will.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 07:52 PM   #13258
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Goods move freely, services do not. You know they do not. Your story is irrelevant. Whether there is a better arrangement elsewhere is irrelevant. There is not a free market in services and you must acknowledge that if we are to have a serious and honest conversation.
All true, but we are not going to improve freedom of trade in services by leaving the EU, are we?
At least not on our own. We need others to grant us the access to their service markets. Who? The EU, will they offer us better access than the membership? The US? China?

If there isn't free market in services within the EU it is even less free outside of it.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 07:53 PM   #13259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bazzup View Post
Why is there a single market for goods but not services?
Maybe because it is simply more difficult? Single market is actually not that old and is constantly evolving.

Also, as far as I know, I admit I might be wrong, most of the trade deals around the world also concentrate on goods and not services. What countries do have comprehensive deals related to services?
No, it isn’t more difficult. The US states manage to have a free internal market in both goods and services just fine.

Oh sure, it might be politically difficult to see a few Italian retailers or French outsourcers go to the wall int the face of competition from elsewhere, but manufacturing jobs are pretty emotive too.

They didn’t liberalise. Now it’s too late and they have lost 15% of their economy and their cost of doing business is going to go up as a result of their loss of access to London.

Not a great success for the EU empire builders wondering how to kickstart growth and lead on the world stage.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 07:55 PM   #13260
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The World Economic Forum ranks Germany (and the Netherlands) as more competitive than the UK

(in fact the poorest of the northern European countries) and less competitive than other members who must surely be equally hamstrung.
There are so many ways of measuring a nations competitiveness and the wealth of its people.

In the UK wealth is distributed more uneven than in places like Holland or Scandinavia and the real purchasing power of the population is much higher than in places like France or Germany. Without going too deep into which model is better against what measure, I can't see any other major European economy being more agile or flexible, having more of the right resources and being better placed to prosper than the UK.
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