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Old January 17th, 2020, 07:59 PM   #13261
bazzup
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This can hardly be news to anyone?! As Bazzup says its the core argument as to why its a poor trade off for the UK to stay in the EU as it is - and looking at where its heading.

It might have been a decent deal for the UK to join back in 1972 when Europe represented a significant and growing share of world trade and UK exports were heavily biased towards goods - and the EU was much smaller and not interfering in much outside trade. The world is a very different place in 2020.

I have spent a lot of time in Paris, Frankfurt and also Bruxelles and I can absolutely see why the whole thing must be surreal if thats where you are sitting.

Anyway, its now up to Boris to use the majority he got to get some good trade deals all around. At the moment, I think he will.
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Goods move freely, services do not. You know they do not. Your story is irrelevant. Whether there is a better arrangement elsewhere is irrelevant. There is not a free market in services and you must acknowledge that if we are to have a serious and honest conversation.
All true, but we are not going to improve freedom of trade in services by leaving the EU, are we?
At least not on our own. We need others to grant us the access to their service markets. Who? The EU, will they offer us better access than the membership? The US? China?

If there isn't free market in services within the EU it is even less free outside of it.
We’ll find out, won’t we.

But the US, Japan, Korea, Australia, Singapore, Canada, Indonesia and Mexico are not bad places to start. That’s why we’re going into trade talks with them.

It seems that the strategy with China is not to try a comprehensive deal but gradually to reduce barriers in select areas.

As China’s demographic bomb goes off, they will be paradoxically less powerful but also have higher standards of living, which means they will have greater appetite for the kinds of things we sell.

My guess is we don’t go for a comprehensive deal with them for another 10 years. By that point, either they will have lost some of their swagger or they will be so dominant we will have to fall into line!

Also of note is that they are a despotic empire currently reneging on their agreement with HK and sabre rattling all over the shop in the South China Sea.

Last edited by bazzup; January 17th, 2020 at 08:24 PM.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 08:22 PM   #13262
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Originally Posted by 10ND0N View Post
This can hardly be news to anyone?! As Bazzup says its the core argument as to why its a poor trade off for the UK to stay in the EU as it is - and looking at where its heading.

It might have been a decent deal for the UK to join back in 1972 when Europe represented a significant and growing share of world trade and UK exports were heavily biased towards goods - and the EU was much smaller and not interfering in much outside trade. The world is a very different place in 2020.

I have spent a lot of time in Paris, Frankfurt and also Bruxelles and I can absolutely see why the whole thing must be surreal if thats where you are sitting.

Anyway, its now up to Boris to use the majority he got to get some good trade deals all around. At the moment, I think he will.
+1

I am just on the Eurostar coming back from Brussels.

Business meetings in Brussels, Paris or Frankfurt all involve the same bewildered, patronising lectures from the locals - and they always assume that the Brits they are talking to share their view that this is lunacy and that we will be charmed by their condescension towards our country’s voters.

They have no ability to comprehend why British voters feel as they do, nor why the British elite has indulged the plebes.

They remind me of Corbynites. Convinced that their ideas are right (despite how regularly they fail) and popular (despite how often they are rejected) and that anyone who doesn’t agree is stupid or evil.

Neither the EU or Labour has the gift of introspection and that is why both are doomed.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 08:29 PM   #13263
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Why is Singapore held up as this guided utopia by Brexiters? It's probably the most superficial place on earth, a horrible hierarchical structural way of working with a population in constant fear of their superiors. The lack of innovation, creativity and ability to collaborate is startling. Ghastly, shallow place constantly looking for new distractions. And let's not even begin to discuss their human rights record.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 08:33 PM   #13264
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Why is Singapore held up as this guided utopia by Brexiters? It's probably the most superficial place on earth, a horrible hierarchical structural way of working with a population in constant fear of their superiors. Ghastly, shallow place.
Something about a very low (nee none) corporation tax and restrictions on the press. This is always championed by small-government conservatives, but they miss out the majority live within government subsided housing. It's cherry-picking to say the least.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 08:33 PM   #13265
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+1
Business meetings in Brussels, Paris or Frankfurt all involve the same bewildered, patronising lectures from the locals - and they always assume that the Brits they are talking to share their view that this is lunacy and that we will be charmed by their condescension towards our country’s voters.

They have no ability to comprehend why British voters feel as they do, nor why the British elite has indulged the plebes.
This is my experience too. Exactly that. They are kinda assuming that you think Brexit is suicidal madness as 'there is no alternative to the EU' and 'we are all Europeans after all'. They just don't get that anyone could look beyond. And if you are French or Belgian I kinda get why you'd think like that
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Old January 17th, 2020, 08:49 PM   #13266
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Why is Singapore held up as this guided utopia by Brexiters?
Come on. I don't think the EU is worried about the UK turning into a police state with China flavor. They are clearly worried about a free market economy that will 'steal' jobs and investment.

Are you disputing that there is something to be learned in the west from how a lot of places in east asia have managed to grow out of severe poverty in 30 years? If so thats probably for another time and thread.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 08:51 PM   #13267
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The Brexit Thread | Leaving the EU and its implications for London

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Are you disputing that there is something to be learned in the west from how a lot of places in east asia have managed to grow out of severe poverty in 30 years?


Lack of human rights, working 24/7, constant paranoia and copying everything creative from the Western world?
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Old January 17th, 2020, 08:59 PM   #13268
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Lack of human rights and copying everything from the Western world?
You are not serious are you? Hahaha that is such an out of date view on the world. Its the world according to Corbyn or Livingstone anno 1985. Come on. Move on.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 09:19 PM   #13269
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We’ll find out, won’t we.

But the US, Japan, Korea, Australia, Singapore, Canada, Indonesia and Mexico are not bad places to start. That’s why we’re going into trade talks with them.
Canada stopped talking

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When the mandate letter for Canada's new minister of small business, export promotion and international trade was published on Friday morning, it didn't list a bilateral trade deal with Britain among Mary Ng's priorities.

Canada's an ally that wants to keep working on good terms with both sides in the U.K.-EU divorce. And until the details are worked out — what tariffs apply to existing supply chains, how customs will operate and how much harder it will be to deliver services across the English channel — it's hard to proceed.

"They're going to have to make some decisions. And we're going to continue to take a close look at that," Ng said on Parliament Hill Friday, pledging to stand up and work for Canadian businesses during this transition.

But for now, there's no hustling back to the table.

Canada's negotiators decided to take a walk earlier this year, after an economically anxious Britain, faced with the prospect of a "hard" exit (with no preferential trade agreement), suddenly announced it had lowered nearly all its import tariffs for every country, not just partners with whom they enjoy trade deals now as a member of the European Union.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bre...rday-1.5396420
Re Japan, Korea and Singapore - the UK are just trying to replicate the current EU deals as much as possible. Without checking I think Korea has agreed to roll over the current deal but Japan is looking for concessions.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 09:25 PM   #13270
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Originally Posted by bazzup View Post
We’ll find out, won’t we.

But the US, Japan, Korea, Australia, Singapore, Canada, Indonesia and Mexico are not bad places to start. That’s why we’re going into trade talks with them.
Canada stopped talking

Quote:
When the mandate letter for Canada's new minister of small business, export promotion and international trade was published on Friday morning, it didn't list a bilateral trade deal with Britain among Mary Ng's priorities.

Canada's an ally that wants to keep working on good terms with both sides in the U.K.-EU divorce. And until the details are worked out — what tariffs apply to existing supply chains, how customs will operate and how much harder it will be to deliver services across the English channel — it's hard to proceed.

"They're going to have to make some decisions. And we're going to continue to take a close look at that," Ng said on Parliament Hill Friday, pledging to stand up and work for Canadian businesses during this transition.

But for now, there's no hustling back to the table.

Canada's negotiators decided to take a walk earlier this year, after an economically anxious Britain, faced with the prospect of a "hard" exit (with no preferential trade agreement), suddenly announced it had lowered nearly all its import tariffs for every country, not just partners with whom they enjoy trade deals now as a member of the European Union.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bre...rday-1.5396420
Re Japan, Korea and Singapore - the UK are just trying to replicate the current EU deals as much as possible. Without checking I think Korea has agreed to roll over the current deal but Japan is looking for concessions.
You misunderstand. The U.K. is planning to join the CPTPP, of which Canada, Singapore and Japan are all members. Korea may become one.

That’ll be a good start. Then, if it suits us, we can build on that further. Of course, initially, while we are still in the EU, all we have sought to do is roll-over existing trade arrangements, wherever possible.

Last edited by bazzup; January 17th, 2020 at 09:39 PM.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 09:40 PM   #13271
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You misunderstand. The U.K. is planning to join the CPTPP, of which Canada, Singapore, Japan and Korea are all members.
Seems odd to be turning our back on the world's largest single free trade area on the other side of the English Channel, which democratically elects its representatives. Why the UK would want to join CPTPP for an economy that is comprised at least 75% of services and is nowhere near any of the other current member states. We trade more with Ireland than we do with the BRICs
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Old January 17th, 2020, 09:54 PM   #13272
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You misunderstand. The U.K. is planning to join the CPTPP, of which Canada, Singapore and Japan are all members. Korea may become one.
I guess it makes sense because it'll kill several birds with one stone but considering the EU already has or is negotiating deals with 9 of its 11 members, it's really just a case of running to stay still.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 09:54 PM   #13273
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Seems odd to be turning our back on the world's largest single free trade area
We're not, we're going to have a deep and extensive relationship with the EU. Deeper than with any other economy in the world. It will extend beyond trade to defence, security, education and science. But we won't be part of the EU.

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which democratically elects its representatives.
Lol, come on.

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Why the UK would want to join CPTPP
Because it is a huge chunk of the world's GDP, with some fast growing developed economies and some up and coming ones. Because it is a counterweight to Chinese dominance in the region, because we trade well with them already and because there is room for lots more trade.

We can do all of this without having to join a political project or open our borders.

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and is nowhere near any of the other current member states.
But those markets are rather closer to where the action is, than is Greece or Portugal.

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We trade more with Ireland than we do with the BRICs
A) not even close to true. In terms of physical trade, we export almost exactly the same amount to China alone as we do to Ireland.

Ireland: $28.2 billion (5.8%)
China: $27.7 billion (5.7%)

B) even if it were true, that would reflect rather poorly on the status quo in terms of the UK's trading arrangements, wouldn't it? For us to be so reliant on trade with such a small country and to miss out on the vast opportunity represented by China, India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa? Something needs to change!
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Old January 17th, 2020, 10:05 PM   #13274
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We’ll find out, won’t we.
True, we will.

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Also of note is that they are a despotic empire currently reneging on their agreement with HK and sabre rattling all over the shop in the South China Sea.
I do wonder how much of a backbone will British trade officials have when dealing with the Chinese. At the moment we seems to be rolling carpet for the likes of Huawei despite warnings and reservations from the Americans and Australians.

It definitely will be interesting show to watch...
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Old January 17th, 2020, 10:12 PM   #13275
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I doubt we'll have much backbone at all. We didn't as an EU member state - and nor has the EU itself.

We will pursue self interest.

As for the Huawei example. Had we done as Trump asked, I cannot help but feel that you would be damning us for buckling to US pressure - doing the bidding of the dreaded Donald. It's almost as if Remoaners look for the worst interpretation of every single data point.

Last edited by bazzup; January 17th, 2020 at 11:11 PM.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 11:22 PM   #13276
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I guess it makes sense because it'll kill several birds with one stone but considering the EU already has or is negotiating deals with 9 of its 11 members, it's really just a case of running to stay still.
What kinds of deal? When will those deals come into effect? Was, for example, the EU deal with Japan the right one for Britain's interests? I think not. It seems to have undermined UK car assembly jobs, without opening up many new export opportunities for us. It worked really well for Germany though. Made it a lot easier to export Mercedes.

As an independent nation, can we do a better job negotiating with Japan by prioritising the areas of greatest benefit to us? Hopefully yes.

Last edited by bazzup; January 17th, 2020 at 11:28 PM.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 11:53 PM   #13277
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And yet CPTPP will be an off the shelf deal already in place that the UK will try to negotiate entry to. The UK wont be negotiating a bespoke deal with Japan.
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Old January 18th, 2020, 12:04 AM   #13278
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And yet CPTPP will be an off the shelf deal already in place that the UK will try to negotiate entry to. The UK wont be negotiating a bespoke deal with Japan.
Correct. Nice and easy. Loads of advantages. Don't have to sign up to a bogus, failing superstate project.

Then, we can do additional deals with those members if / when we see fit. Japan almost certainly will follow soon after. But even without a bespoke deal, it will be a better choice than the EU struck (after decades of not doing any kind of deal at all).

For example, we will be developing a bilateral with Australia at the same time.
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Old January 18th, 2020, 01:42 AM   #13279
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As for the Huawei example. Had we done as Trump asked, I cannot help but feel that you would be damning us for buckling to US pressure - doing the bidding of the dreaded Donald. It's almost as if Remoaners look for the worst interpretation of every single data point.
I have to admit I rarely agree with Trump. But to be honest most of the American establishment is weary of Huawei, both Democrats of Republicans. It might be in fact a few things they agree on

I was actually taking warnings from former Australian prime minister more seriously than what Americans are saying. I was listening radio interview with him the other day. He was quite eloquently explaining why Australian authorities see reliance on Huawei as a security risk not worth taking. They seemed to do quite a research on the subject.

Again, we will see how the situation develop.

Oh, and I actually wish the EU developed harder stance toward China on quite a few issues.

I have feeling than some "Brextards" think that we "Remoaners" are absolutely uncritical of the EU. Well, that is not really correct. It has a lot of failings, but so do many states, including the UK itself.

Last edited by geogregor; January 18th, 2020 at 09:12 AM.
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Old January 18th, 2020, 03:41 PM   #13280
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Neither the EU or Labour has the gift of introspection and that is why both are doomed.
Oh the irony! If there is one side lacking the "gift of introspection" it's the Brexiteers, by thinking that they can boss around the Irish on the issue of the customs border, and by thinking that the UK would have the upper hand in trade negotiations with the EU ("the easiest one in history") because Germans are desperate to sell their cars in the UK, the French their food and wine, and the Italians their fashion (dixit David Davis). A lot of Brexiteers seem out of touch with reality and under the impression that the balance of power hasn't changed much since the days of the empire.

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Business meetings in Brussels, Paris or Frankfurt all involve the same bewildered, patronising lectures from the locals - and they always assume that the Brits they are talking to share their view that this is lunacy and that we will be charmed by their condescension towards our country’s voters.
Do you know how patronising David Davis sounded with his stereotypical comments about the Germans, French and the Italians? The reason why nobody in Europe took offense was because his tweets were so ludicrous and out of touch that they were more comical than that they were offensive. But Brexiteers are in no position to lecture Europeans about condescension. Brexiteers are in desperate need of some introspection.
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