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Old June 12th, 2007, 10:12 AM   #121
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Gems are not India's biggest export by value. It is not even in the top 3. The biggest value categories, based on INR data for April 2006-Jan 2007 (the latest available) are:
1. Engineering goods Rs.95980 cr
2. Petroleum products Rs.69725 cr
3. Chemical products Rs.64920 cr
4. Textiles Rs.60124 cr
5. Gems & jewels Rs.58442 cr

Not only that, but all the top 4 are growing at double digit rates (upto 67%) while gems exports grew <5% during this period. This data is available on the DGFT (directorate general of foreign trade, commerce ministry) site.
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Old June 14th, 2007, 06:16 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by Suraj View Post
Gems are not India's biggest export by value. It is not even in the top 3. The biggest value categories, based on INR data for April 2006-Jan 2007 (the latest available) are:
1. Engineering goods Rs.95980 cr
2. Petroleum products Rs.69725 cr
3. Chemical products Rs.64920 cr
4. Textiles Rs.60124 cr
5. Gems & jewels Rs.58442 cr

Not only that, but all the top 4 are growing at double digit rates (upto 67%) while gems exports grew <5% during this period. This data is available on the DGFT (directorate general of foreign trade, commerce ministry) site.
thats v interesting
I would love to know to where does india export these things? esp the first 3.
Things like that , used in industry are invisible to a mere consumer like myself but i would be (happily) suprised if here in the UK we imported much of that stuff from india.Although it might make up a %% of our overall imports in those sectors.
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Old June 17th, 2007, 09:39 PM   #123
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Results of Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM)- a beginning

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/C...ow/2128363.cms

Six cities to have full water supply
16 Jun, 2007 l 2052 hrs ISTlPTI

NEW DELHI: The Centre, on Saturday, said that Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, Vijayawada and Visakhapatnam would now have 100 per cent water supply as part of its flagship urban renewal programme.

Union Urban Development Minister S Jaipal Reddy also informed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that Ahmedabad, Rajkot, Surat and Vijayawada would be fully covered by modern sewerage system.

Besides, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Indore, Pune, Thane and Vijayawada will have improved bus rapid transit system, Reddy informed the Prime Minister, who reviewed the progress on the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM).

Singh spoke about the need for greater attention by state governments to modernisation of urban infrastructure with a special focus on the poor living in cities, an official statement said.

During the meeting, he was also informed about waste transport and disposal plans for Agra, Kanpur, Lucknow and Rajkot.

Eleven cities have achieved 85 per cent coverage efficiency in property tax collection while eight have achieved 90 per cent, the statement said.
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Old June 18th, 2007, 04:38 PM   #124
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Which other Indian city will be on that list next?

Quote:
Mumbai figures in world's top-ten financial flow league.
18 Jun, 2007 l 1355 hrs IST l PTI

MUMBAI: Driven by high trading volumes for equities and good presence of global banking and financial services firms, Mumbai has grabbed a place in the world's top ten financial flow hubs list.

The city has been ranked tenth among the world's biggest centres of commerce in terms of the financial flow volumes by a survey compiled by MasterCard Worldwide, which takes into consideration size of financial services network besides equity, bond, derivatives and commodity contract transactions.

The list, lead by London and New York on the first two slots, include two other Asian cities -- Tokyo at fifth and Seoul at sixth positions.

The other cities include Chicago, Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Milan.

"The Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa (APMEA) region boasts of three cities which got included in the premier league -- Tokyo, Seoul and Mumbai due to their high trading volumes in bonds and equities," MasterCard Worldwide said in its first Worldwide Centres of Commerce Index study.

The list is, dominated by European cities with as many as five of the top ten positions on financial flow metrics.

According to MasterCard Worldwide, the financial flow dimension is an integration of five indicators – financial services network, equity transactions, bond transactions, derivatives contracts traded and commodities contracts traded -- all carrying equal weightage.

The financial services network includes the presence and intensity of global banking institutions, insurance companies and global securities companies.
Source: Times of India

Last edited by Suncity; June 18th, 2007 at 06:02 PM.
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Old June 19th, 2007, 01:24 PM   #125
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Nice.

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India biggest job-spinner among BRIC nations

NEW DELHI: India may be lagging behind China in terms of economic growth or becoming a global manufacturing hub, but it has outpaced the Communist giant in creating the maximum number of jobs among the BRIC nations.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its Employment Outlook 2007 report released on Tuesday said India, the world's second-fastest growing economy after China, generated more than 11 million new jobs every year during 2000 and 2005 - higher than Brazil, Russia and China.

The four countries together created over 22 million net new jobs on an average per year during 2000 and 2005, which is more than five times the net employment gains recorded in the OECD area as a whole over the same period.

India generated 11.3 million net new jobs per year[/B] on an average during this period higher than other BRIC nations. In contrast, the average was 3.7 million in the OECD area as a whole.

Paris-based OECD comprises 30 developed countries including the US, UK, France, Germany and Japan.

The famour-four emerging nations club of BRIC account for about 42 per cent of world population and 45 per cent of the world's total workforce. This is far more than the 19 per cent share of the 30-member club of developed economies for both population and labour force, OECD said.

OECD economists said in the report "the rapid recent economic expansion in the BRIC countries has led to significant employment gains in these countries".

These significant net employment gains have translated into higher employment rates in the BRIC region. The employment rates have gone up in Brazil, India and Russia, while it has remained high in China.

Last edited by Suncity; June 19th, 2007 at 04:11 PM.
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Old June 19th, 2007, 03:42 PM   #126
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Great news! Who would have thought that a country with acute unemployment crisis until hardly two decades ago would one day go on to become one of the top employers of its workforce in the world? India never ceases to amaze you!

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India's investment in US surpasses $2 bn in 2006-07: Report
New Delhi, June 17, 2007

Indian companies invested over $2 billion in the US in 2006-07 and completed a total of 48 deals with the firms there, says a report.

The IT and ITES (IT-enabled services) industries have accounted for 48 per cent of the 48 deals, including mega deals taking place in other sectors such as pharma, hospitality, agro products and automotive industry among others, according to a study jointly done by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and global professional services firm Ernst & Young.

Indian outbound deals crossed $15 billion in 2006 and it is expected that by 2007 the value could surpass $35 billion. Also, during the first nine months of 2006, Indian companies have announced 115 foreign acquisitions worth $7.4 billion, a seven-fold increase since 2000.

According to the report, the companies that have clinched the top five deals during the period are Tata Tea, ONGC Videsh, Tata Coffee, Indian Hotels and HOV Services.

"Over the last decade, Indian companies belonging to diverse industries have been gradually gearing up to become emerging multinationals. Leveraging the nation's comparative advantage of knowledge, Indian companies have grown through acquisitions, built best-in-class competency and become large-scale players," the report says.

It also stresses on the fact that Indian investments abroad are not always done by large business conglomerates but are largely driven by several of Indian small and medium enterprises.

One of the main factors that have acted as a catalyst for such enormous deals is the growing confidence among Indian companies coupled with the willingness to take risk.

Also, India Inc is now well-equipped to acquire overseas companies because of the regulatory development that has taken place due to the government's liberal measures and various monetary relaxations provided by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with the growth of foreign exchange.

In the BPO (business process outsourcing) space, the report said, Indian companies are now increasingly opening up units in the US providing opportunities of large-scale employment there, giving rise to a 'reverse outsourcing' trend.
To top that, India's FDI outflow is estimated to touch $35 billion this year, $25 billion (72%) of which will be poured into Europe.

Last edited by india; June 20th, 2007 at 09:25 AM.
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Old June 22nd, 2007, 08:45 PM   #127
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Japan to invest billions of dollars on infrastructure in India - govt official
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/...fx3848012.html

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Japan confirmed it is planning to invest billions of US dollars in India through private funds and government loans to improve infrastructure in the rapidly growing South Asian economy.

Earlier the Nikkei business daily reported that the country will provide up to 30 bln usd in loans and investments to support construction of major infrastructure in India

Details will be announced when Japan's Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Akira Amari visits New Delhi and Mumbai from June 30 through July 4, an official at his ministry said, confirming the plan to invest.

He will be joined by more than a dozen executives of big Japanese companies, led by Osamu Suzuki (other-otc: SZKMF.PK - news - people ), chairman of Suzuki Motor Corp., a key player in India's burgeoning auto market.

'The investment plan is part of India's own project of constructing infrastructure so the precise figure for Japanese investment depends on India,' the official said on condition of anonymity.

'But it will total in the billions of dollars.'

The investment plan follows a general agreement signed in December between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh on working together on a 'Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor.'

The corridor plan would build a high-speed rail network between India's two largest cities and develop sea ports on the west coast, with infrastructure built along the route.

Singh said in October that India needed to spend 320 bln usd by 2012 to improve its infrastructure in order to accelerate economic growth and tackle poverty.
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Old June 22nd, 2007, 09:28 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by india View Post


Great news! Who would have thought that a country with acute unemployment crisis until hardly two decades ago would one day go on to become one of the top employers of its workforce in the world? India never ceases to amaze you!
What's so amazing about it? India has more population growth than any other place so of course it should have more job growth, just to maintain employment levels.
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Old June 22nd, 2007, 10:31 PM   #129
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Originally Posted by Paddington View Post
What's so amazing about it? India has more population growth than any other place so of course it should have more job growth, just to maintain employment levels.
What's so amazing about it is the achievement. From about 53% in the mid-seventies, unemployed workforce currently stands at under 8% in India. That's a commendable achievement by any standards. Ja?
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Old June 24th, 2007, 07:14 PM   #130
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I dont know the source for this, but pay attention to the part in bold:

Quote:
Indian economy highest employment generator in the World

In another study, it said that the country's booming construction industry, currently at US$70 billion, will rise to US$120 billion by 2010, requiring manpower of over 90 million from the current 30 million.

The OECD report says that India also has the lowest rate of jobless people among BRIC nations. The country's unemployment rate stood at 6 per cent in 2005, compared with China's 8.3 per cent, Russia's 7.9 per cent and Brazil's 9.3 per cent.

Moreover, the employment to population ratio is also lowest in India, the world's second-most populous country after China, at 50.5 per cent in 2005. In contrast, it stood at between 66-71 per cent in the other three BRIC countries.

The study "Job Opportunities in Emerging Sectors" by Assocham said that high consumer spending has resulted in big interest in the retail sector, 97 per cent of which is still unorganised. It is estimated that the organised segment alone will add up to US$14 billion in market size by 2010 to cross US$21.5 billion, creating two million jobs directly.

The hotel sector will need a new workforce of at least 94,000 by 2010-11.The aviation space is growing at 25 per cent yearly. The industry is expected to add 130 planes to the current fleet of 270 airliners and create 200,000 jobs by 2017, the study also said.

The information technology (IT) and IT-enabled sector - the biggest employment generator - with a work force of 1.63 million in recent times, will continue to hire most aggressively and is expected to fall.
That paragraph is the best news I have heard in a long time, because contruction workers mainly come from rural areas, and use it as a secondary lob between crop rotations.

This combined with India having the lowest unemployment rate in the BRIC countries could potentially drive millions upwards, and allow their replacement with mechanised agri.
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Old June 25th, 2007, 04:53 AM   #131
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The size of the pie just got bigger

Quote:
Now a bigger Delhi-Mumbai ind corridor
SHANTANU NANDAN SHARMA
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ SUNDAY, JUNE 24, 2007 05:26:12 AM]

NEW DELHI: The mother of all infrastructure projects in India just got bigger in scale and size. In a surprise development, the government has doubled the proposed investment on the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor to a whopping $90-100 billion.

According to estimates, the amount will be spent in four years beginning 2008 for infrastructure development along the 1483-km-long dedicated freight corridor between the two primary cities of the country, top sources close to the development told SundayET.

The government had earlier announced that the venture would require $50 billion which would be spent in building or upgrading five to six airports, setting up of several logistics and agro-processing parks, creating a 4,000 mw of power generation facility as well as two greenfield ports in Gujarat and Maharashtra.

When contacted, secretary of department of industrial policy & promotion (DIPP) Ajay Dua confirmed the development. Yes, we have now estimated that the first phase of the project itself will require at least $90 billion. Our target is to complete the phase I along with the completion of the dedicated freight corridor by 2012. The newly set-up industries will then be able to use the freight corridor from day one, he said.

In fact, the government is drawing up a layout which will include more infrastructure projects along with the industrial corridor as compared to what was earlier planned for. Significantly, the proposed $90-100 bn will form over 30% of what the nation needs for infrastructure sector in the next five years.

According to the proposal, the work on industrial corridor will be in two phases 2008-2012 and 2012-2016. The phase I will witness setting up of one investment region (IR) of about 200 sq km and one industrial area (IA) of smaller sizes in each of the five states Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Though the corridor will pass through six states including Delhi, the national capital will not be able to reap any benefit because of paucity of land for industries.

In fact, potential users of the freight corridor may be involved in building infrastructure as well. As the government has indicated so far, most of the infrastructure work connected to the industrial corridor will be executed in public-private partnership (PPP) format.

Shailesh Pathak, head, PPP Initiative, Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC), feels that there should be a proper implementation structure for such a mega venture. The most significant challenge will be to have an implementation structure which should be outcome-driven rather than profit-driven, he said.
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Old June 28th, 2007, 07:00 AM   #132
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Economic roundup:

Quote:
BRICs Overtake U.S. In Energy: Goldman Sachs

The share of the global economy belonging to emerging markets is increasing. According to Yahoo! Finance, Goldman Sachs has a new report indicating that the BRIC countries’ share of the global energy industry is now higher than that of the U.S.:

Quote:
At the end of the first Gulf War in 1991, 55 percent of the 20 largest companies in the energy industry by market capitalization were American, and 45 percent were European, according to the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. study.

But in 2007, 35 percent of the 20 largest energy companies are from BRIC countries, about 35 percent are European, and about 30 percent are American, the study said.
This follows a trend in other industries such as the metals and mining industry where 20% of the top 20 companies are now from BRIC countries.

The story has been reported at Forbes, MSN and elsewhere and comes from the United Nations AP newswire. Yet, nobody - including Goldman Sachs - seems to have the actual report itself. Anyone out there seen this report?
Quote:
India may soon ink FTA on goods with Thailand

NEW DELHI, JUNE 26: Thailand and India are close to concluding a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) covering trade in goods by 2010. The two countries are likely to start negotiations on free trade agreement on goods next month and the agreement could be finalised by September. Simultaneously the two nations would also discuss FTA in services.

Speaking at a business summit organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) and the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM), visiting Thai prime minister Surayud Chulanont said that an FTA roadshow aimed at expediting the process of negotiations would be launched soon and expressed confidence that the FTA on goods would be in place by the end of this decade.

“We see in India a key engine of the rising Asian economy. It is imperative for us that bilateral trade between the two countries reaches greater heights and FTA would be a key to that,” he said.

Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said that though Thailand enjoys a favourable position in the balance of trade, India does not mind that. “As much as we are a foreign exchange earner, we also have developed a tendecy to invest abroad. We have invested more in Australia, UK and maybe US as well than these countries have invested here,” Nath said.

While FTA on goods is on the table first, a simultaneous negotiation on services would also be underway. “There will be parallel negotiations on services and investments parameters of the FTA though no agreement will be signed regarding that during the course of the Thai PM’s three day visit,” he said.

While tariffs on 82 products have already been eliminated under the Early Harvest Scheme (EHS), which came into force in 2004, the FTA could not progress as per the original timeline since there were differences on a number of items which were to be kept out of the pact.

Since EHS, India ‘s trade with Thailand has grown to $3.4 billion in 2006. With $1.3 billion already recorded during the first four months this year Chulanont was optimistic that the target of $4 billion by 2007 would be achieved.
Quote:
India to emerge 3rd largest credit market: PwC

The country could emerge as the third-largest domestic credit market in the world after United States and China by 2040, and, in the long run, could grow faster than China, said a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report on the banking sector by 2050.

While, India�s domestic credit is projected to grow from relatively low levels of $0.4 trillion in 2004 to $23 trillion in 2050, China�s credit market is set to expand from $2.8 trillion to $45 trillion over the same period, according to the report.

The total domestic credit in China could overtake the United Kingdom and Germany by 2010, Japan by 2025 and the US before 2050.

However, India is likely to be the fastest growing among the emerging economies (E7) of China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey in the long-run.

�The model suggests that while China will continue to grow somewhat faster than India over the next 5-10 years but, after that, China's growth will be held back by its rapidly ageing population (due in large part to its one child policy) and diminishing returns to its investment-led strategy. In contrast, India and other emerging economies have much younger populations with faster-growing labour forces,� Jairaj Purandare, executive director, PwC, said.
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Old July 2nd, 2007, 06:11 AM   #133
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4eeded70-27f...b5df10621.html

Quote:
Bangalore wages spur ‘reverse offshoring’
By Richard Waters in San Francisco
Published: July 1 2007 22:02 | Last updated: July 1 2007 22:02

The rising cost of paying engineers in Bangalore has prompted at least one Silicon Valley start-up to save money by closing its Indian engineering centre and moving the jobs back to California.

While this “reverse offshoring” remains unusual, it points to a broader belief in the US technology industry that the savings that drove software engineering jobs to India’s technology capital are quickly eroding.

Like.com, a search engine company that uses image recognition software to find pictures on the web, took the step of closing in India after seeing the wages of top-level engineers in some cases rise close to US levels.

“Bangalore wages have just been growing like crazy,” Munjal Shah, chief executive, complained in a blog post. In the next few months, Like.com would have had to lift the salary of one of its Bangalore engineers to 75 per cent of the US level, even though the same engineer earned only 20 per cent as much as an equivalent US-based worker two years ago, Mr Shah said.

The extra costs of running a separate office in India and the difficulties caused by the 12 and a half hour time difference from California meant the pay gap no longer made it worth staying, he wrote.

Other Silicon Valley executives report that while other parts of India remain inexpensive, salaries in Bangalore have been rising rapidly towards those of the Valley itself.

“The differential in India is very small now,” said Rick Prime, chief financial officer of Tool Wire, an online education company based near San Francisco, although his company has not brought jobs back to the US.

“If you’re a small company, saving 20 per cent isn’t going to make a lot of difference,” said Brij Singh, co-founder of Apptility, a Valley software start-up that has 20 employees in India.
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Old July 2nd, 2007, 10:49 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by Bond James Bond View Post
One reason why India (and Bangalore) is beoming economically strong is because of low-cost labour and professionals. So, when we become strong to a level, we will lose the advantage and will become economically weak again.
?Vicious cycle
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Old July 3rd, 2007, 01:39 AM   #135
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Quote:
* Can India grow without Bharat?
* Can we reap the "demographic dividend" of a young population?
* How should we revive industrial employment?
* Is the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act affordable?
* Why have reforms sputtered despite the "dream team"?
* How is growth so strong though reforms have stalled?
* How can populism be restrained?
* Can 8 per cent growth be sustained?
* Should we deploy forex reserves to build infrastructure?
* What must we do to renew our decaying cities?
* What is the solution to the coming water crisis?
* Who are India's tax reformers?
* Can bilateral trade agreements substitute for the Doha Round?
* Should SAARC have a common currency?
* Is "fiscal responsibility" working?
* Does monetary policy work?
* Can we really aspire to China's economic league - or is it all hype?
* How good is our foreign policy?
The book examines all of the above.

-------



Quote:
Vivek Chibber's book on the failures of industrialization is not one that most people are likely to read, even in the unlikely occurrence that they ever encountered it. Filled with such unenthralling topics as "nodal agencies", "the developmental state," "the developmental bourgeoisie," "state capacity," and with how to create more efficient and effective bureaucracies, it is not a book that is likely to attract most people's interest. And it is true that Chibber does not have a style that would bring these topics to life. Nevertheless this is a book that should not be ignored, because it deals with a very important topic. As everyone knows, many third world countries sought to industrialize in the post war period with the help of state intervention. India under the Congress Party was a particularly prominent example of the developmental state. As time went on this path was ultimately unsuccessful, and for the past two or three decades, the IMF and the World Bank have been encouraging private enterprise and free trade. According to the advocates of globalization, state encouraged industrialization is a failure. But there is a striking exception to the narrative of failure: South Korea. It is the value of Chibber's book that it explains why India was so much less successful than Korea.

One might think that the reason South Korea was so much more successful than its rivals was because it had a streamlined and efficient bureaucracy. But this is not necessarily the case: in the mid-eighties it required as many as 310 approvals and 312 documents before permission was granted to form a new industrial plant. One might think that the difference was the result of the strategy of industrialization. India, like many other countries, followed an import substitution industrialization (ISI), while South Korea followed an export-led industrialization (ELI). The difference here is not simply one between protectionism and free-trade: for a long time South Korea had its own system of tariffs to protect domestic industries. But an ELI path insured that Korean companies faced the pressures of foreign competitors, while an ISI path often resulted in domestic companies smugly idling in the fleshpots of assured markets. But Chibber shows that this is not the result of the cleverness of South Korean bureaucrats and the ideological blindness of Indian ones.

There were reasons why countries preferred ISI to ELI. For a start, industrial countries placed tariffs on industrial goods from developing countries in the fifties. American foreign aid put restrictions on exports during the fifties. So did many foreign companies. One Indian committee found in 1969 that 65% of the collaboration agreements it surveyed had export restrictions imposed by the foreign partner. Moreover, since export markets were competitive and risky and domestic markets safe and assured it was only rational for businesses to resist their governments' push for export drives, which in India and elsewhere they successfully did. Korea was different. It had the luck to be the place where Japan needed to outsource its light manufacturing, and this gave it the contacts and places for its own export drive in the sixties to be successful. Moreover this led to a crucial difference with India. Because the export markets were both competitive and profitable, companies would support the disciplinary measures the South Korean state imposed to assure that its aid worked. After all, if one company failed to do what it was supposed to, there would be another to do a better job of it. By contrast, in India under ISI, there was no such incentive. There was considerable support for getting state incentives, but there was stringent opposition to enforcing any disciplinary measures. And so Chibber details how Indian business' call for state planning in the forties was in fact a way to pre-empt more radical measures, that it was call for not socialism, but for capitalist planning. He discusses how they worked vigorously to take out any teeth in Indian planning legislation, and he also shows how the Congress party demobilized the labour movement, which could have served as a counterweight to Indian business. And he goes on to discuss how Indian business was able to thwart possible reforms in the fifties and sixties, and how Indira Gandhi's erratic patronage system undermined it once and for all. He also notes how Korean business eventually became powerful enough that they did not need the developmental state's restrictions, and so started to dismantle it. The result is a complex, well documented account, which should be read by all shallow advocates of globalization.
Examines the difference between South Korean state-led development, and Nehruvian.
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Old July 3rd, 2007, 01:57 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by VaastuShastra View Post

Examines the difference between South Korean state-led development, and Nehruvian.

Is Mr Chibber pro Nehruvian/ pro socialism / anti globalization?
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Old July 3rd, 2007, 05:59 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by indian soul View Post
One reason why India (and Bangalore) is beoming economically strong is because of low-cost labour and professionals. So, when we become strong to a level, we will lose the advantage and will become economically weak again.
?Vicious cycle
Well, you'll now have to compete on quality, not just price. But that's good for you (and the US!) because it forces both sides to keep on their toes.
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Old July 3rd, 2007, 08:50 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by VaastuShastra View Post




The book examines all of the above.
Here are my answers to each of his questions (some of them are unanswered since they are beyond my expertise):

* Can India grow without Bharat?

What does he mean by this?

* Can we reap the "demographic dividend" of a young population?

The best bet is to promote education and to develop a youthful and vigorous innovation-centric culture, where action is given value.

* How should we revive industrial employment?

In this case, jobs need to be created, and not just in the metros, smaller 2nd and 3rd tier cities need manufacturing jobs with which to attract excess farmworkers from rural India (the remaining farmworkers can then have an easier time saving up for tractors and other advanced farming equipment).

* Is the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act affordable?

No idea.

* Why have reforms sputtered despite the "dream team"?

This is due to a combination of bureaucracy and populism, not to mention the presence of Communists in the Indian gov't (Communism needs to be banned, IMO it's basically a Robin Hood-type solution to the problem of poverty. Besides, it's better to have a few rich ppl and a lot of poor ppl than to have everyone be equally poor with no private property.)

* How is growth so strong though reforms have stalled?

This is due to the determination of Indian buisinesses to expand overseas, and the presense of various existing economic reforms.

* How can populism be restrained?

This can be restrained by introducing education requirements for voting and holding public office. For example, one would require a bachelor's degree to vote, a master's degree to hold most public office, and a doctorate to be the prime minister or president. This will also have the effect of promoting education, since people will be forced to get educated if they want to participate in the political process.

Also, a clause should be added allowing people bypass the education requirements by taking an IQ test. Thus, one would also be able to vote by being shown to have an IQ of 110-115, hold most public office with an IQ of 130-135, and become the president or prime minister with an iq of 145-150, or something like that (plz correct me if my IQ estimates for different degrees are off in any way).

Basically, a successful nation is ruled by action-oriented intellectuals, IMO, and by having education and/or IQ requirements for participating in the political process, the second part of my ideal can be achieved.

* Can 8 per cent growth be sustained?

It can be sustained with MASSIVE infrastructure improvements as well as improved work ethic among the general public.

* Should we deploy forex reserves to build infrastructure?

I'm not too sure about this, but an experienced economist should clarify.

* What must we do to renew our decaying cities?

This is a multi-pronged thing, but in short, massive infrastructure improvements (transport, housing, water management) are an absolute must, as is promoting growth in smaller cities to take some of the pressure off of India's largest ones.

* What is the solution to the coming water crisis?

There are multiple solutions they include building massive rainwater harvesting systems nationwide (with irrigation lines running paralell to all national and state highways, collecting rainwater through stormdrains and whatnot and using barometric principles to store them in tanks, for use as crop irrigation and drinking water), seawater desalination plants (in coastal areas), and massive river cleanups (since most rivers in India are far too polluted to be used as drinking water).

Also, demand-side management can be implemented with a two-child rule (all additional children will be taxed and will not be eligible for government-sponsored education past 10th). The reason for suggesting two children per family instead of one is to help stabilize the population and prevent it from aging (which has become a problem in China). On a different but related note, gender balancing should be strongly encouraged, e.g. if ur firstborn is a boy, you get an automatic tax break if the next one is a girl, and vice versa).

* Who are India's tax reformers?

M not sure here.

* Can bilateral trade agreements substitute for the Doha Round?

No idea. We need a qualified economist.

* Should SAARC have a common currency?

Not until Pakistan and India sign a peace treaty, terrorism is wiped out in SA, and the whole region experiences massive growth.

* Is "fiscal responsibility" working?

No idea. We need a qualified economist.

* Does monetary policy work?

No idea. We need a qualified economist.

* Can we really aspire to China's economic league - or is it all hype?

Yes, but only if India remodels itself to promote talent above all else and reforms its government to an action-oriented intellectual one capable of lateral thinking.

* How good is our foreign policy?

It's too soft on terrorist nations, IMO.
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Old July 3rd, 2007, 03:52 PM   #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Naga_Solidus View Post
* Why have reforms sputtered despite the "dream team"?

This is due to a combination of bureaucracy and populism, not to mention the presence of Communists in the Indian gov't (Communism needs to be banned, IMO it's basically a Robin Hood-type solution to the problem of poverty. Besides, it's better to have a few rich ppl and a lot of poor ppl than to have everyone be equally poor with no private property.)
Lincoln once said - 'You cannot make the poor rich by making the rich poor'. In other words you cannot help wage earners by destroying wage payers. I am not totally against welfare state. State intervention is needed in education, health and infrastructure. However, I agree that there is no room for communism and it is a bad idea. I was so surprised when I read former finance minister Yashwant Sinha saying on growth and poverty. He said that you need to spread wealth to eradicate poverty. In order to spread wealth, first you need to create wealth and there is no other way than higher GDP growth to create wealth. (He said this in an interview with Outlook - cannot find a direct link)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Naga_Solidus View Post
* How is growth so strong though reforms have stalled?

This is due to the determination of Indian buisinesses to expand overseas, and the presense of various existing economic reforms.
That made me think - what if we had a reform friendly government at the center or at least a government not dependent on communists! Double digit growth would be a reality by now IMO.
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Old July 3rd, 2007, 04:00 PM   #140
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Isn't the growth rate under UPA+commies higher than under the NDA? And I read somewhere that both non commie Gujarat and commie WestBengal had double digit gdp growths last year. The Indian commies are dumb when it comes to a lot of things (including the economy). But are they the people who really matter ( nationally ) that much except slogan shouting? The BJP and Congress (I) are far ahead in terms of influence when it comes to India's destiny and economy.
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