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Old September 10th, 2011, 01:08 PM   #121
MeMumbaikar
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its going to rise

for our CAD to be flat our GDP needs to grow by more or our exports need to maintain themselves.

a lot of people are expecting trade deficit to touch 16 billion next month.




I would like to say i would love to be proven wrong, but if the situation continues along the same path our growth will be down from 7-8% to about 4-5%. A car crash of sorts. Fiscally we need to tighten up in our government budget as well which is running at 5-6% of GDP. Though not as bad as our debt is mostly in rupees. Still another source of worry.
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Old September 10th, 2011, 09:27 PM   #122
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firstly fiscal deficit will be less than 5% this fiscal as our FM is trying very hard, secondly there is no need to worry about debt because savings rate is 34%. Also trade deficit as i said will fall if crude prices crash, also due to booming prices of silver and gold the imports of precious metals have skyrocketed, once these cool down there will be reduction in imports.
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Old September 11th, 2011, 11:18 AM   #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SSCaddict View Post
firstly fiscal deficit will be less than 5% this fiscal as our FM is trying very hard, secondly there is no need to worry about debt because savings rate is 34%. Also trade deficit as i said will fall if crude prices crash, also due to booming prices of silver and gold the imports of precious metals have skyrocketed, once these cool down there will be reduction in imports.
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However, analysts and industry bodies had doubts over the target.
According to a recent report of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), fiscal deficit was likely to remain between 5.05 and 5.1 percent.

The government targets to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2013-14. Fiscal deficit was 5.1 percent in 2010-11 against the budget estimate of 5.5 percent.
Read more at: http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/ind...rget-176114?cp



I expected crude prices to fall, but they seem to be holding firm and not crashing.


Need Brent crude below $100 and the rupee to hold to 45 to the USD for there to be a significant fall in the trade deficit.
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Old September 11th, 2011, 08:45 PM   #124
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what is NDTV smoking, fiscal deficit fell to 4.7% last year and 5.1% was the estimate.

source
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Old September 15th, 2011, 11:53 AM   #125
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hmm the rupee seems to be on a downward spiral against the dollar in the recent weeks.


from 45 to touching 48. A nearly 10% fall.


I dont understand this logic from the RBI. You want to combat inflation. So you raise rates. Then you let the rupee devalue without any intervention and now petrol prices will rise as will other fuel prices.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/9991088.cms


which means inflation will rise anyway.



The CAD calculation as a % of nominal GDP me thinks are going to top 5% on the negative side.


With will benefit IT and exporters for sure. But i am afraid not by much to cover the deficit.
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Old September 15th, 2011, 06:57 PM   #126
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it is so frustrating, first crude(brent) goes from $80 to $115 and commodities rally 50-60% in just 9-10 months. Then the rupee depreciates 10% in a single week, exports slow down. Horrifying situation, IMO in these times govt. needs support of opposition to cut the fiscal deficit and un useful spending.
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Old September 15th, 2011, 09:49 PM   #127
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India may potentially be facing a shit storm where growth drops to 4%
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Old September 15th, 2011, 09:52 PM   #128
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4% growth is so vajpayee era, is technically impossible.
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Old September 16th, 2011, 04:34 PM   #129
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anything is possible, just imporbable... if the world economy slides again, there are no guarantees that we will get off as easy as we did last time...

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it is so frustrating, first crude(brent) goes from $80 to $115 and commodities rally 50-60% in just 9-10 months. Then the rupee depreciates 10% in a single week, exports slow down. Horrifying situation, IMO in these times govt. needs support of opposition to cut the fiscal deficit and un useful spending.
I havent seen any proposals from the govt. for the opposition to support... apart from taking out the subsidies..

but in an environment where inflation is such a worry, that isn't where you cut your expenses!! There are many many places where the holes can be plugged, this is just the easiest one to go for!

I agree that the subsidies need to go at some point, but this is not the time for it!

Last edited by skdubai; September 16th, 2011 at 04:41 PM.
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Old September 16th, 2011, 05:38 PM   #130
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buddy, when our exports were below $50bn we had 4% growth.
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Old September 16th, 2011, 08:24 PM   #131
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4% growth will be like recession.
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Old October 2nd, 2011, 09:53 PM   #132
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Ever since trade was liberalised in 1991, total trade has increased over six times in just a decade from FY 2001 to FY 2011. Exports and imports have registered a sharp increase, growing 5.7 times and almost seven times respectively. As a result, India’s trade to GDP ratio in FY 2011 is approximately 30 per cent, well above the sub-20 per cent levels seen in the four decades leading to liberalisation.

Since imports have been growing faster than exports, the trade deficit to GDP ratio has also increased sharply between FY 2001 and FY 2011. A trade deficit in and of itself is not bad, particularly if the imports are channelled towards productive use in the economy. To a large extent, it reflects the unfavourable terms of trade of India’s trade basket, wherein India’s exports are predominantly primary or low-value added products, while intermediates and capital goods comprise a significant portion of imports. This situation will probably change rapidly as the share of engineering goods increases in the export basket and/or intermediates are increasingly manufactured in India.

The sharp increase in exports over the last two years has much to do with new export geographies in Africa and Latin America. However, the OECD countries, particularly in the Eurozone and the US, remain the leading markets for Indian goods and services.
Electrical and non-electrical machinery comprises a significant portion of China’s exports to India. This explains its rapid rise as a leading exporter to India and the increasingly worrisome annual surplus in bilateral trade of almost $20 billion that it enjoys.

Another measure of India’s increasing engagement with the global economy is the nine-fold increase in foreign investment over a decade. While close to half the money over the past two years is “hot” money in the form of portfolio investment, the share of the more stable FDI is also increasing. India today ranks as the 14th most favoured destination for FDI, according to the most recent UNCTAD survey. It could do a lot better if the quality of human and physical capital improved and the regulatory regime was made more investor-friendly.
Source: http://www.business-standard.com/ind...r-2011/451167/
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Old October 11th, 2011, 12:16 AM   #133
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India, Czech Republic bilateral trade may touch $2 b in 2012

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...cle2526339.ece

The Czech Republic today said bilateral trade with India is expected to touch $2 billion in 2012 on account of increasing economic engagement between the countries.

The Czech Republic Industry and Trade Minister, Mr Martin Kocourek, who is leading a 50-member delegation here, said there are huge opportunities for businessmen of both nations to increase economic cooperation.

“Our trade has increased almost 10-fold during the last decade and we are likely to reach a new record level of $2 billion in 2012,” Mr Kocourek said at a CII function.

He said both the countries can cooperate in sectors like infrastructure, chemicals, environment and engineering.

In 2010-11, bilateral trade between the nations stood at $885.20 million. While India's exports to the European nation amounted to $208.42 million during the period, its imports totalled $676.78 million.

The Czech Republic mainly exports auto components, machine tools, textiles, printing machinery and equipment for the energy sector to India. Its imports from India include textiles, steel, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and electrical goods.
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Old October 12th, 2011, 10:35 AM   #134
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Exports grow 36% to $25 bn

India's exports grew by 36.3% to $24.8 billion in September
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Old October 12th, 2011, 02:28 PM   #135
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excellent news


exports are holding up better than expected. I am happy to be proven wrong.
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Old October 17th, 2011, 09:23 PM   #136
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India's trade may touch 976.7 bn by 2025: HSBC India

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"India trade will grow 156 per cent by 2025 with its trade volumes reaching $976.7 billion and will be among the top five international powerhouses which will drive the world trade growth until 2025," an HSBC statement said.

Further, it said that India's trade pattern is shifting from the traditional markets - the US and Europe - to the regions like the Middle-East, China, and Latin America.

This shift would "open several new options and opportunities for Indian exporters and importers", it added.

During the April-September period, India's exports grew by 52.1 per cent to $160 billion. Imports, too, expanded by 32.4 per cent to $233.5 billion.
source
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Old October 18th, 2011, 10:44 AM   #137
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India's trade may touch 976.7 bn by 2025: HSBC India



source
thats a dumb estimate imo


our exports are expected to be $270-280 this year and imports about $400


thats nearly $680-700 billion in trade.


your telling me that trade increases, but only 280 billion in nearly 14 years?



or have i missed something while reading this.
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Old October 18th, 2011, 12:18 PM   #138
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lol you are right, looks some goof up by the reporter.
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Old October 18th, 2011, 01:52 PM   #139
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lol you are right, looks some goof up by the reporter.
nope googled around


HSBC predict 967 billion. another source

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bus...bc_600762.html


which is why i said have i missed something?


they keep saying three times of what it is today. Which implies its something like 320 or something as of now.





The only thing (which escaped my mind earlier) which may not have been reported in this article is merchandise trade and that term does not include services and foreign investment etc.


http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Merchandise_Trade


I dont think our newspapers are examining that fact.
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Old October 18th, 2011, 01:55 PM   #140
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Don't you people feel imports will come down eventually? I mean by 2025.
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