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Old January 25th, 2011, 11:20 AM   #21
GregPz
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Cape Town 763 192 pax in December up 3.7% (domestic +5.2%, intl -2.1%).
Total for the year 8 107 727 +5.0% (dom +5.9%, intl -1.15).
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Old January 25th, 2011, 06:34 PM   #22
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so the continued trend of international declines at Cape Town. -2.1% is quite large. The domestic growth looks rather healthy, but best seen in the light of how Durban and Joburg do - when we get those figures.

However if you pick the stats apart...

December was the best ever December for passenger numbers through Cape Town and the 4th best month ever for domestic passengers (with October being the 3rd best ever). So the only concern is continual international decline.

See that ACSA still dont have other cities up yet, only aircraft movements.
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Old January 25th, 2011, 06:39 PM   #23
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so the continued trend of international declines at Cape Town. -2.1% is quite large. The domestic growth looks rather healthy, but best seen in the light of how Durban and Joburg do.

See that ACSA still dont have other cities up yet, only aircraft movements.
see European Airport Chaos
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Old January 25th, 2011, 06:41 PM   #24
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Well lets see how this affects Joburg
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Old January 25th, 2011, 06:49 PM   #25
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Deon Cloete stated today International was flat, with the drop due to the European Chaos. Rise in domestic was good news, with good domestic activity during WC as per his World Cup report.

He also mentioned in workshop more direct flights from Turkey soon and more in pipeline.
Runway reconfiguration for CTIA in 5 year plan but on hold.
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Old January 25th, 2011, 09:15 PM   #26
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Turkish Airlines started their additional 5th weekly flight yesterday, Mondays in SA, both JNB and CPT. Remember for the airlines this still means direct, even if not nonstop. But as TK grows the route and being one of the fastest growing airlines worldwide I wouldn't be surprised if they're to split JNB and CPT at a later stage.
Surely if it wasn't for the lots of cancelled European (mostly LHR) flights CPT would have shown growth internationally. Many people eventually had to cancel their trips, this could even have affected travellers via Dubai and Istanbul as well.
JNB might still have a growth, because it still had several other flights/airlines which it didn't have the previous December, ie: Thai, Jet, VAus.
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Old February 4th, 2011, 09:55 AM   #27
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Seems ACSA is only going to release December stats in the mid Feb - apparently JNB pax figures haven't been finalised and nothing futher will be released until that's done, yet strangely stats were submitted to ACI. Anyway based on what we know the stats for JNB and DUR will look pretty much like this:

JNB
Dec: 1 673 800 pax +6.1%
2010 Total: 18.39m +5.4%

DUR
Dec: 445 350 pax +11.5%
2010 Total: 4.75m +10.5%

What's particularly impressive about the 11.5% growth at DUR in Dec is that it's on the back of an 11.3% increase in Dec 2009 meaning Dec traffic has increased by 24.1% in 2 years, compared with 7.5% for CPT and 10.4% for JNB.
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Old February 4th, 2011, 10:59 AM   #28
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that December figure must surely be the highest ever monthly figure for Durban. I have never seen anything over 440000 before for the city, even at the height of the boom a few years ago! That is mighty impressive.

I gather from this, it is showing that the Durban - Joburg leg is closing up on the importance of the Joburg-Cape Town leg, as i would imagine the vast majority of the Durban growth is Joburg focussed (lanseria included).
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Old February 4th, 2011, 06:35 PM   #29
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Ok i checked up. So the highest monthly total in Durban previously was 429203. If the number reported above is correct it is 15,000 higher than ever before in one month. It will also be 40,000 higher than the previous highest December figure.

Additionally this December would be 90000 higher than December 2008 and 45,000 higher than last December.

Very good going if it is the correct figure!! And clearly shows we are well turned around and out of the airline dip - we are actually in a way better position from a passenger point than we have ever been.
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Old February 5th, 2011, 10:09 AM   #30
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I gather from this, it is showing that the Durban - Joburg leg is closing up on the importance of the Joburg-Cape Town leg, as i would imagine the vast majority of the Durban growth is Joburg focussed (lanseria included).
I wouldn't really say that the Joburg-DUR sector is fast closing in on Joburg-CPT, maybe slowly slightly. Remember that the Kulula flights from Lanseria to DUR is mostly flights that's just been switched from JNB to HLA, while Kulula's flights on HLA-CPT is mostly additional while not really removing much from JNB.
Capacity on CPT-DUR is infact more than the previous December, even after SAA's withdrawel, with the 1 extra Mango flight, 1 extra BA flight and 2 extra daily 1Time flights (which was started in March '10).
Also keep in mind that the Airlink routes was badly affected with problems the previous December, this impacted on DUR-GRJ, DUR-BFN, DUR-MQP and DUR-MPM.
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Old February 5th, 2011, 05:28 PM   #31
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I never said fast closing, but closing it is.

If we look at absolute growth levels in each of the cities in 2010 it is as follows:

Joburg: 942,182 extra people
Cape Town: 385,904 extra people
Durban: 451,357 extra people

Therefore Durban closed the gap by 65,453 people. If the growth in Cape Town is low, then this Durban growth must surely be coming predominently from Joburg? Unless some of the regional routes are starting to see strong growth from Durban. Yes 65k is a rather small number in the big scheme of things.

Secondly you mentioned airlink badly affected last December? yet growth then was still good. To be over 90,000 up on December 2008 is nothing small. Cape town is 50,000 up from Dec 2008 and Joburg 160,000 up - these are airports far bigger than Durban.
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Old February 11th, 2011, 11:41 AM   #32
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It makes sense that virtually all the growth at DUR will be on the JNB route as one has to fly via JNB to go just about anywhere in the world. At least 80% of my flights to JNB are just stop overs.
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Old February 11th, 2011, 11:47 AM   #33
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December stats have finally been released. JNB exceeded 800k international pax for the first time!



And the year end figures for 2010. Not a bad year overall and definitely signs that things are picking up. We can expect good growth if Velvet Sky launches.

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Old February 11th, 2011, 11:48 AM   #34
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I noticed some of the December stats is on the ACSA site, most showing growth. Interesting to note that DUR International was actually down from last December...I think mostly to do with Air Mauritius having this time around only 2 or 3 weekly flights all with A319, last season they had weeks where they had up to 4 or 5 weekly flights on MRU-DUR, some with A340 and A330.

Regarding the discussion of growth at DUR vs JNB vs CPT, I believe it's actually more important to see what growth HLA is having, while JNB itself is also showing growth overall and domestic, one would almost be certain that HLA is definitely showing much higher growth, and thus being the major driving force for growth at both DUR and CPT.
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Old February 11th, 2011, 11:58 AM   #35
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HLA

Quote:
Originally Posted by grjplanes View Post
Regarding the discussion of growth at DUR vs JNB vs CPT, I believe it's actually more important to see what growth HLA is having, while JNB itself is also showing growth overall and domestic, one would almost be certain that HLA is definitely showing much higher growth, and thus being the major driving force for growth at both DUR and CPT.
Lanseria weighs expansion options as passenger numbers swell
Passenger numbers at LIA reached more than one-million last year, up from around 150 000 in 2005.

“It could touch, or exceed, two-million passengers by the end of this year,” says LIA airport manager Gavin Sayc.
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Old February 11th, 2011, 12:47 PM   #36
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Yeah but still doesn't clear show what 2010 growth figures there were. I'd hazard in the 20s range. Disappointing on some negative on int in Durban, MRU most likely as emirates were packed. Its only about 550 people though. Int growth in Durban will remain flat until more capacity is available - Qatar....?
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Old February 12th, 2011, 10:03 AM   #37
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Here's the market share of pax traffic for ACSA airports with the figure for 5 years ago shown in brackets.

Domestic traffic
JNB 39.9% (42.9)
CPT 27.9% (26.4)
DUR 19.0% (17.4)
PLZ 5.9% (6.2)
ELS 2.8% (2.7)
GRJ 2.2% (2.8)
BFN 1.7% (1.2)
KIM 0.6% (0.5)

International traffic
JNB 84.7% (83.9)
CPT 13.6% (15.8)
DUR 1.7% (0.3)

Total Traffic
JNB 53.5% (54.7)
CPT 23.6% (23.3)
DUR 13.8% (12.5)
PLZ 4.1% (4.4)
ELS 2.0% (1.9)
GRJ 1.5% (2.0)
BFN 1.2% (0.9)
KIM 0.4% (0.3)
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Old February 12th, 2011, 10:13 AM   #38
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This shows how many pax each airport has gained over the last 5 years

JNB 2 625 144 +16.7% (Dom 772 268 +8.8%, Intl 1 704 471 +24.5%)
CPT 1 382 961 +20.6% (Dom 1 265 411 +23.4%, Intl 81 069 +6.2%)
DUR 1 158 196 +32.2% (Dom 986 197 +27.7%, Intl 151 447 +565.6%)
PLZ 141 065 +11.1%
ELS 114 025 +20.4%
GRJ -38 988 -6.9%
BFN 156 891 +63.6%
KIM 34 628 +35.3%
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Old February 12th, 2011, 11:10 AM   #39
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some very interesting stats there greg! interesting to note the declines in George... the only centre that is shrinking...reasons?

It also appears that the changes are mainly happening in the 3 main centres which would be expected. With Durban and to a lesser degree Cape Town gaining more overall share of the market at Joburgs expense.
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Old February 12th, 2011, 02:52 PM   #40
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The major drops for George was from mid-2008 (after Nationwide collapse) untill early-mid 2010. During 2008 and 2009 drops were as bad as up to 15%. From last year it started turning again with at first lower month-on-month drops to at last some little growth, with now December the highest since. So it did start making up some losses and seems to be going the direction of modest growth and slowly building back to the levels of 2006/2007. Also keep in mind that growth between 2005 and 2007 was at some time very aggressive with even more than 20% growths some months.

So, most importantly, recession! Being probably the destination where leisure traffic makes up the largest part of it, this then gets much more affected during recessionary times. Then from Dec09 to May 2010 the slight drops was still the effect of the Airlink crash which at first had some flights dropped/suspended together with the uncertainty about Airlink from a pax perspective and ofcourse mainly the runway which got shut down with every drop of rain.

Things are looking better at the moment, I believe January will also have a good improvement. Kulula now has 1 more weekly flight than last year this time and using the larger 737-800s more often. 1Time also seems to be using their larger MD82 aircraft more often. Confidence seems to be back with Airlink, the DUR-GRJ route seems safe (last year Jan/Feb it was suspended for about 6 weeks) and CPT-GRJ is currently showing great performance with most flights showing good loads and once again Airlink now and then feel the need to upgrade the morning flight from 37-seat ERJ to 83-seat AR8. This coming week we'll also be seeing a phenomenom last seen in 2005, where extra flights is added outside of holiday periods, with SA Express to operate 5 extra flights Wed/Fri/Sun, most probably to do with the Outeniqua Wheelchair Marathon.
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