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Old September 24th, 2019, 12:44 PM   #2081
JulianL
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The news of the Thomas Cook (TC) the very long-established UK travel company going bust has not surprisingly been all over the news here in the UK over the last 24 hours. It occurred to me last night that this impacts at least CPT since TC used to run a regular summer service from LGW to CPT. I'm not sure if it serviced any other SA airports, e.g. JNB which is why I am posting here rather than the general aviation thread.

What happens now in CPT? The UK news says that TC aircraft are already being grounded/impounded for sale by the administrators winding up the company and all flights are stopped. Presumably that also leaves TC's CPT slots as assets to be sold off.

I'm afraid I'm terribly (read that as totally!) ignorant on this stuff. Are slots owned or leased by operators or even some other arrangements? Are slots also just that, time slots where an airline could use its slot for anything from a small Cessna to Port Elizabeth or a 747 to Perth or are slots in some way differentiated vs aircraft size, destination distance etc?

On the wider impacts presumably someone will step in and take those slots but not necessarily to the UK? What does that mean for UK capacity? Were the TC flights doing well? Did other UK operators have spare capacity so will TC's displaced traffic be naturally absorbed by other existing flights or might this prompt moves for other competitors (BA, Emirates etc) to either increase frequency of flights directly into CPT or rejig planes used on existing flights to increase capacity?

I'd be really interested to know how some of you really knowledgeable industry insiders think this might affect CPT going forward.

- Julian
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Old September 24th, 2019, 04:15 PM   #2082
evanb
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JulianL View Post
What happens now in CPT? The UK news says that TC aircraft are already being grounded/impounded for sale by the administrators winding up the company and all flights are stopped. Presumably that also leaves TC's CPT slots as assets to be sold off.

I'm afraid I'm terribly (read that as totally!) ignorant on this stuff. Are slots owned or leased by operators or even some other arrangements? Are slots also just that, time slots where an airline could use its slot for anything from a small Cessna to Port Elizabeth or a 747 to Perth or are slots in some way differentiated vs aircraft size, destination distance etc?
Route authorities between the UK and South Africa are not constrained so there are no constraints. That being said, UK route authorities are not transferable.

CPT is not slot constrained so slots have no value. LGW is slot controlled/constrained and slots are not route specific, but time specific. TC's slots are likely to be sold by the liquidators subject to slot allocation and competition rules.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JulianL View Post
On the wider impacts presumably someone will step in and take those slots but not necessarily to the UK? What does that mean for UK capacity? Were the TC flights doing well? Did other UK operators have spare capacity so will TC's displaced traffic be naturally absorbed by other existing flights or might this prompt moves for other competitors (BA, Emirates etc) to either increase frequency of flights directly into CPT or rejig planes used on existing flights to increase capacity
There will be a scramble for the slots for sure, and who gets them will determine where that capacity gets replaced. BA/IAG acquired Monarch's LGW slots after its collapse but it's not obvious that they would get the approval to do the same here. If BA/IAG do get them then they may replace some capacity to CPT, but if EasyJet or Wizz Air (the other bidders for the Monarch slots) get them then it'll be all short haul. Norwegian wanted the Monarch slots too, but their own financial position would likely preclude them this time.

However, with reduced non-stop competition now on CPT-LHR/LGW, BA may not chose to replace capacity but rather use their non-stop monopoly to raise fares. Also, TC's capacity was rather small and might not register in the bigger picture including one-stop capacity.
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Old September 24th, 2019, 06:02 PM   #2083
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Do you think this may provide the impetus for Virgin Atlantic to re-establish direct service to Cape Town? Do they have the available aircraft or slots on UK side to do so (or perhaps looking to move a less lucrative route)?
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Old September 24th, 2019, 06:43 PM   #2084
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Do you think this may provide the impetus for Virgin Atlantic to re-establish direct service to Cape Town? Do they have the available aircraft or slots on UK side to do so (or perhaps looking to move a less lucrative route)?
No. We're looking at a loss of capacity of approximately 620 to 930 seats per week that ran for high season only. By comparison, Emirates are going to provide about 19,334 seats per week into South Africa, of which 4,984 are going to Cape Town. So in terms of total capacity it's going to be a drop in the ocean.

The secondary consideration is if there is a big enough and high yielding enough non-stop market for LGW/LHR for VS to move scarce slot and aircraft capacity. I suspect not.

Also, VS take a lot of connecting Trans Atlantic Joint Venture traffic from DL which will be diluted with the new UA non-stop flight.
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Old September 24th, 2019, 07:00 PM   #2085
JulianL
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Thanks Evan. I really appreciate your detailed answer and the useful more general education about some bits of how the slot stuff works that came along with it.

- Julian
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Old October 20th, 2019, 03:53 PM   #2086
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http://www.airports.co.za/Documents/...s_Part%201.pdf
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Old Yesterday, 11:52 AM   #2087
SAMOHT
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Are any renders of the proposed CTIA International Terminal revamp available?
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