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Old August 14th, 2019, 05:13 PM   #2581
sponge_bob
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Some more on Norwegian here.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/14/b...ntl/index.html

Norwegian were only one of a number of MAX operators in Dublin. Turkish were deploying theirs to fly across Europe while Air Canada, Icelandair Westjet (IIRC) and Norwegian were flying TATL legs ....or just about to for the summer season at least. TUI may have been in the mix as well for Canaries flights, not sure.

A lot of the European MAX operators had plans for DUB as did the Canadians who are arguably the biggest MAX customers so far .... pro rata their overall fleet.

The reason why operators targeted DUB with the MAX is.

1. It is a lot more economic than an -800 when your leg is 3 hours plus. Shorter legs not so much.
2. It has the range to cross Europe and the Atlantic from end to end all year round unlike, say, an ETOPS rated -800 in winter.
3. A WIDE is NORMALLY TOO MUCH PLANE for an Ireland route and is difficult to fill, especially so in winter from November to March.

Larger and more centrally located EU Airports would have been served with a 787/A330 instead as they would have been busier overall. But medium scale airports like DUB are ideal for the MAX as you can fill one.

It is important to note that Norwegian have very little use for a MAX over an -800 elsewhere either, I can really only think of Scandi to Canaries legs which would generally not be as busy overall as DUB to NYC. For a company that has 100 MAX a/c on order this is a disaster, more especially so because they were the European launch customer for the MAX and because I can see very few essential alternative deployment opportunities for their fleet of around 20 built and also because their base in DUB will be broken up by the time the MAX flies again.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 10:24 PM   #2582
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Does Norwegian still have those A320neo orders or did they sell the production slots to other operators for financing their debts ?

If they still have them on order, it's easy: instead of dumping the neo to other carriers they can take the neo's and dump the MAX slots to whoever wants them.
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Old August 14th, 2019, 11:40 PM   #2583
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btrs View Post
Does Norwegian still have those A320neo orders or did they sell the production slots to other operators for financing their debts ?

If they still have them on order, it's easy: instead of dumping the neo to other carriers they can take the neo's and dump the MAX slots to whoever wants them.
They suspended their A320 family deliveries for 2019 and I think 2020 as well in April. I vaguely remember most of the slots were for sale and they were keeping 30 only and wanted A321LR only from now on.

Note that they have no A320 pilots on staff, never did have, and this story was probably only BS from Norwegian.

I am not sure whether they ever deployed a MAX and an -800 from the same base either, perhaps Oslo only. Nor am I sure whether their 40 odd MAX pilots in Ireland have been kept current on their -800 ratings or indeed what they have been doing for the past 5 months at all.
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Old August 19th, 2019, 06:38 AM   #2584
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Old August 23rd, 2019, 06:25 AM   #2585
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Old August 23rd, 2019, 11:59 AM   #2586
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https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...urn-to-flight/

Puffs of white smoke visible in Seattle. This may turn out to be an extensive testing period, one using MAX pilots who are twiddling their thumbs in places like Canada and Iceland and Dublin....or it may be the real deal.

Boeing and FAA give more signs of preparations for a 737 MAX return to flight

Quote:
Thursday brought more strong hints that Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration are moving steadily toward ungrounding the 737 MAX as soon as October.

The FAA said Thursday it’s inviting “a cross-section of line pilots from carriers that operate the aircraft around the world” to participate in simulator testing “as part of the overall testing and validating of new procedures on the Boeing 737 MAX.”

And according to two sources with knowledge of the matter, the FAA’s Flight Standardization Board that determines U.S. pilot-training requirements aims to issue in early September new recommendations for exactly what MAX pilot training is needed before U.S. airlines can fly passengers on the airplane again.

Meanwhile, Boeing gave suppliers a new 737 production schedule reflecting “timing assumptions for the 737 MAX return to service plan.”

<snip>
The safety agency said the line pilots now being invited to the new simulator tests will be pilots with “previous experience at the controls of the Boeing 737 MAX.”
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Old September 1st, 2019, 06:27 AM   #2587
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Old September 3rd, 2019, 09:14 PM   #2588
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Between the physical issues that forced Boeing to go down the route of the electronic system that caused the crashes, and the huge hit to the reputation of the 737 that this has cause, especially among passengers, is this issue going to force Boeing to do a clean sheet of paper replacement for the 737 (which it's really needed to do for a decade or more anyway)?
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Old September 4th, 2019, 12:53 AM   #2589
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They proposed a clean sheet ages ago, it was called the NSA. No doubt it will make a comeback in the next decade some time. We will hear of it again when the MAX orderbook tapers off OR if Airbus seriously jump first with an A320 replacement OR if Airbus ever get serious about an A220-500 version, so not before 2025 I'd reckon.

The next generation again of fuel efficient(er) engines will be even bigger than the current ones. We can forecast that small aircraft will be taller by 2030 so.

http://www.b737.org.uk/737nsa.htm

Quote:
CEO Jim McNerney said on 4 Nov 2014 "It will be slightly larger than the 737, but its shape won't change dramatically from the current fuselage. By 2030 we will have a new airplane. There is a good chance it will be a composite airplane."
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Old September 8th, 2019, 05:32 AM   #2590
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Old September 11th, 2019, 10:07 AM   #2591
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interesting video about potential problems of future sales in China

agree or disagree?

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Old September 13th, 2019, 12:16 AM   #2592
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Without question, the Chinese will retaliate through Boeing in this trade war. First they will probably drag their feet in re-certifying the MAX aircraft and probably defer a boatload of deliveries, and that's not including how much money they will demand in compensation for the grounding. I don't see this trade conflict ending any time soon, if at all. There will be temporary ceasefires and eruption for years to come.
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Old September 13th, 2019, 05:01 PM   #2593
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KaiserSoze View Post
Without question, the Chinese will retaliate through Boeing in this trade war. First they will probably drag their feet in re-certifying the MAX aircraft and probably defer a boatload of deliveries, and that's not including how much money they will demand in compensation for the grounding. I don't see this trade conflict ending any time soon, if at all. There will be temporary ceasefires and eruption for years to come.
Problem is that for their freighter fleet they are still very dependent on them, at least for new-built 777F's. The rest are all conversions (737-800 BCF/SF, 767-300 BCF/BDSF, 757-200 SF) or second-hand machines (747-400F/BCF/BDSF or 747-8F). Most aircraft destined for the Chinese market are converted in mainland Chinese facilities anyway (Jinan, Shanghai Pudong), and I don't know if they are part of the sanctions since these are after-market services (and not outright purchases).

Apart from a few factory-built A330F's at Sichuan Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines there's nothing really of note concerning Airbus freighter aircraft. However, once the A320 family conversion programme starts to take off this might change and Boeing will have to up its stakes to stay competitive.
Especially since more NG's which were destined for conversion have to remain longer in service to fill in for non-delivered MAX'es, while the A320/321s destined for conversion were already planned to be replaced by neos anyway.

Concerning the last sentence Airbus is not trouble-free either: if the GTF-powered neos keep exploding their engines (Indigo comes to mind) in the Asia-Pacific region more ceo's will have to step in for them as well.
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Old September 14th, 2019, 01:09 AM   #2594
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Originally Posted by btrs View Post
Concerning the last sentence Airbus is not trouble-free either: if the GTF-powered neos keep exploding their engines (Indigo comes to mind) in the Asia-Pacific region more ceo's will have to step in for them as well.
Yes, the GTF is restricted to ETOPS 60 in India now, in effect, since January. P&W have a way to go with improvements to their engines before it is unrestricted.

I now reckon the FAA will be allowed to solo run the October reintroduction of the MAX in US Service and prepping the stored frames for EIS in the US and elsewhere will take until next May seeing as many are not now wanted until the summer season anyway.

So I expect the nod in October and the MAX even doing some thanksgiving runs in the end.

I then expect EASA will relent by January at the latest, but probably December along with Canada and India and most of South America and Africa. If pilots do need extra conversion training then Jan/Feb are the time to do it before the summer schedules kick in.

Leases for covering 800s need to be unwound in an orderly manner too.

China is a geopolitical issue now not an aviation regulation one. The reintroduction of the MAX hangs on a single wrong tweet TBH.

But if the regulators all jumped in October then the staff to prep the stored planes could not cope anyway, there is a few months steady work in the prepping alone and the time of year is not ideal for a/c delivery. in the northern hemisphere.

We'll see if I am right soon enough.
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Old September 14th, 2019, 02:04 PM   #2595
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Reuters published a piece on the back to work campaign as I wrote my last contribution to the thread. Worth a read.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKCN1VY1NV

Quote:
Inside Boeing’s 737 factory at Renton, Washington, south of Seattle, workers have pre-assembled dedicated tool kits for technicians tasked with installing software updates and readying over 500 jets that have sat idle for months, insiders said..... likened the logistics to a nation “going to war.”

Airlines estimate the process - which includes installing new software, changing fluids and cycling the engines - will take 100 to 150 hours per jet, and months in total for Boeing.
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Old September 14th, 2019, 03:43 PM   #2596
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Factbox: What needs to happen before Boeing's 737 MAX can fly again
13 September 2019
Excerpt

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Boeing Co's <BA.N> best-selling jet, the 737 MAX, was grounded globally in March, days after the crash of an Ethiopian Airlines flight that followed a similar Lion Air disaster in Indonesia in October. A total of 346 people died in the two crashes.

Boeing has spent months working on updating critical flight control software at the center of both crashes, with the hope of winning Federal Aviation Administration approval for the planes to fly again in the United States between October and December.

That timeframe may differ in other countries.

Following are some of the key steps that need to take place before the 737 MAX returns to the skies.

SOFTWARE UPDATES AND FLIGHT TESTS

Boeing is still finalizing updates to flight control software, which will be followed by a certification test flight. CEO Dennis Muilenburg has said he was targeting the September timeframe for the flight but on Wednesday declined to give a specific date. Federal officials say it may not occur until October and the FAA may not give the green light to resume flights until November.

Boeing and FAA pilots have been testing the updated software for months and the FAA is inviting regular 737 MAX line pilots to run tests as well.

Those tests must also be completed before the aircraft is approved for return to service, the FAA has said.

PILOT TRAINING

The FAA's Flight Standardization Board that determines U.S. pilot-training requirements must issue new recommendations for what kind of training is needed before U.S. airlines can fly passengers on the 737 MAX again.

The final report is expected in September and will have a 30-day period for comments from airlines and pilots.

A draft report in April recommended short computer-based training and classroom instruction about the new software. Simulator training, which some overseas regulators are weighing, would take longer and is more costly.

CERTIFICATION

Once the software updates, test flights and pilot training recommendations are finalized, the FAA must approve the jets for flight and has said it will need about 30 days from the time the certification flight is completed before it decides whether to allow flights to resume. The agency has repeatedly said it will not certify the plane until it is safe to do so.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency said on Tuesday will conduct its own test flights separate from, but in full coordination with, the FAA. The test flights are not scheduled yet and depend on Boeing's progress.

Muilenburg has said it is possible not all regulators around the world will concurrently approve the MAX to fly again.

Some officials do not expect the 737 MAX to actually resume flights until early 2020.

More : https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...-idUSKCN1VY22N
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Old September 14th, 2019, 04:00 PM   #2597
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post
Simulator training, which some overseas regulators are weighing, would take longer and is more costly.
This, there are very few MAX simulators deployed worldwide. I think there were fewer than 10 in the whole world a year ago.

This is because Boeing told everyone that flying a MAX 8 was just like flying an -800 , meaning an -800 simulator would be enough. So almost nobody wanted a MAX simulator and they did not make buying one a priority.

As there are very few of them they need to utilise them heavily, 24/7, to train the pilots over the winter.
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Old September 15th, 2019, 07:13 PM   #2598
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India’s DGCA Will Make Own Validation Of 737 MAX

Quote:
NEW DELHI : The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) will conduct its own due diligence before allowing the grounded Boeing 737 Max planes to fly on Indian skies even if the US aviation regulator, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), re-certifies the aircraft in near future, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told Mint.
Read more here:https://www.livemint.com/companies/n...382339960.html
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Old September 17th, 2019, 04:32 AM   #2599
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Old September 19th, 2019, 01:34 PM   #2600
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-europe

Quote:
Ryanair Freezes Payment to Boeing on 737 Max Delivery Delays
Ryanair has overcapacity because of the general (economic and aviation and Brexit) situation in Europe, a surplus of 500 pilots (allegedly), and a lot of their badly capitalised competitors in Europe seemingly lurch on anyway, punch drunk year to year, despite serial Ryanair predations and €10 sun ticket dumping....and indeed some of these have sizeable MAX orders themselves. They overexpanded, in other words.

But they are blaming Boeing for everything, I bet the Boeing share price is completely unaffected on the downside by this news today. It closed at $386.41.

Quote:
“The best outlook is the first aircraft will come in January, more realistic outlook is end of February or March,” O’Leary told reporters. “If it runs later than March, April or May we will have to take some more aircraft out of next summer’s schedule and slow down the growth further.”

Any delays in adding the new planes to its fleet could lead to more job losses. “The number has moved between 500 and 700, some of that depends on the Max delays,” he said. “At the moment we are 500 surplus pilots.”
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