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Old November 20th, 2019, 05:27 AM   #1481
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Its easier to say that when we aren't them, but we do have to consider the livelihood of our Egyptian brothers and sisters, those everyday citizen who is trying to make ends meat, which is almost to the same as our population. I had visited the country once and took a tour through the Nile river for 3 days from Aswan dam to Luxor, which begs you to see that the people only have the river and this river only, without it there is no Egypt.
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Old November 26th, 2019, 03:41 AM   #1482
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Old December 21st, 2019, 06:18 AM   #1483
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Old January 7th, 2020, 04:56 AM   #1484
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updated [11.28.19] google earth satellite imagery [& comparison with previous pictures]



... some progress on powerhouse structures [turbines inside?], early generation intakes steelwork, and interestingly removal of METEC installed materials from the 'bottom outlets'... not much else visible

in order to meet current schedules for early generation by end 2020 [which requires storing next kremt waters]... the powerplant, intakes/penstocks & outlets need to be fully installed... the gap in the middle[100m?] need to be built up [30m?] and... finally RCC works comprising of about 500m in length & 20m deep..all that before rainy season starts in about 6 months
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Old January 16th, 2020, 07:27 AM   #1485
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STATEMENTS & REMARKS

Joint Statement of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States and the World Bank

January 15, 2020
Washington, DC – The Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Water Resources of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan and their delegations met with the Secretary of the Treasury and the President of the World Bank, participating as observers, in Washington, D.C. on January 13-15, 2020. The Ministers noted the progress achieved in the four technical meetings among the Ministers of Water Resources and their two prior meetings in Washington D.C. and the outcomes of those meetings and their joint commitment to reach a comprehensive, cooperative, adaptive, sustainable, and mutually beneficial agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Toward that end, the Ministers noted the following points, recognizing that all points are subject to final agreement:

The filling of the GERD will be executed in stages and will be undertaken in an adaptive and cooperative manner that takes into consideration the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the potential impact of the filling on downstream reservoirs.
Filling will take place during the wet season, generally from July to August, and will continue in September subject to certain conditions.
The initial filling stage of the GERD will provide for the rapid achievement of a level of 595 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.) and the early generation of electricity, while providing appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan in case of severe droughts during this stage.
The subsequent stages of filling will be done according to a mechanism to be agreed that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that addresses the filling goals of Ethiopia and provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
During long term operation, the GERD will operate according to a mechanism that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
An effective coordination mechanism and provisions for the settlement of disputes will be established.
The Ministers agree that there is a shared responsibility of the three countries in managing drought and prolonged drought.

The Ministers agreed to meet again in Washington, D.C. on January 28-29 to finalize a comprehensive agreement on the filling and operation of the GERD, and that there will be technical and legal discussions in the interim period.

The Ministers recognize the significant regional benefits that can result from concluding an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with respect to transboundary cooperation, regional development and economic integration that can result from the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed the importance of transboundary cooperation in the development of the Blue Nile to improve the lives of the people of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, and their shared commitment to concluding an agreement.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm875?fbclid=IwAR31TgP15pzd5YgvbMSrW-9nCMGq9Anp49tZQMR1z26j08kz2dPtO1pDFAE
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Old January 16th, 2020, 08:04 AM   #1486
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bire View Post
STATEMENTS & REMARKS

Joint Statement of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States and the World Bank

January 15, 2020
Washington, DC – The Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Water Resources of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan and their delegations met with the Secretary of the Treasury and the President of the World Bank, participating as observers, in Washington, D.C. on January 13-15, 2020. The Ministers noted the progress achieved in the four technical meetings among the Ministers of Water Resources and their two prior meetings in Washington D.C. and the outcomes of those meetings and their joint commitment to reach a comprehensive, cooperative, adaptive, sustainable, and mutually beneficial agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Toward that end, the Ministers noted the following points, recognizing that all points are subject to final agreement:

The filling of the GERD will be executed in stages and will be undertaken in an adaptive and cooperative manner that takes into consideration the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the potential impact of the filling on downstream reservoirs.
Filling will take place during the wet season, generally from July to August, and will continue in September subject to certain conditions.
The initial filling stage of the GERD will provide for the rapid achievement of a level of 595 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.) and the early generation of electricity, while providing appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan in case of severe droughts during this stage.
The subsequent stages of filling will be done according to a mechanism to be agreed that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that addresses the filling goals of Ethiopia and provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
During long term operation, the GERD will operate according to a mechanism that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
An effective coordination mechanism and provisions for the settlement of disputes will be established.
The Ministers agree that there is a shared responsibility of the three countries in managing drought and prolonged drought.

The Ministers agreed to meet again in Washington, D.C. on January 28-29 to finalize a comprehensive agreement on the filling and operation of the GERD, and that there will be technical and legal discussions in the interim period.

The Ministers recognize the significant regional benefits that can result from concluding an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with respect to transboundary cooperation, regional development and economic integration that can result from the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed the importance of transboundary cooperation in the development of the Blue Nile to improve the lives of the people of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, and their shared commitment to concluding an agreement.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press...8kz2dPtO1pDFAE
The devil is in the details. Seleshi tweeted a congratulations message. I can't wait for the analysts discussions on the agreements.
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Old January 16th, 2020, 05:57 PM   #1487
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The devil is in the details. [...] I can't wait for the analysts discussions on the agreements.
For sure.

The framing paragraphs of the text are more important than the list of six items:
Quote:
Joint Statement of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States and the World Bank
Washington, DC – The Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Water Resources of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan and their delegations met with the Secretary of the Treasury and the President of the World Bank, participating as observers, in Washington, D.C. on January 13-15, 2020. The Ministers noted the progress achieved in the four technical meetings among the Ministers of Water Resources and their two prior meetings in Washington D.C. and the outcomes of those meetings and their joint commitment to reach a comprehensive, cooperative, adaptive, sustainable, and mutually beneficial agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Toward that end, the Ministers noted the following points, recognizing that all points are subject to final agreement:
  1. The filling of the GERD will be executed in stages and will be undertaken in an adaptive and cooperative manner that takes into consideration the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the potential impact of the filling on downstream reservoirs.
  2. Filling will take place during the wet season, generally from July to August, and will continue in September subject to certain conditions.
  3. The initial filling stage of the GERD will provide for the rapid achievement of a level of 595 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.) and the early generation of electricity, while providing appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan in case of severe droughts during this stage.
  4. The subsequent stages of filling will be done according to a mechanism to be agreed that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that addresses the filling goals of Ethiopia and provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
  5. During long term operation, the GERD will operate according to a mechanism that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
  6. An effective coordination mechanism and provisions for the settlement of disputes will be established.
The Ministers agree that there is a shared responsibility of the three countries in managing drought and prolonged drought.

The Ministers agreed to meet again in Washington, D.C. on January 28-29 to finalize a comprehensive agreement on the filling and operation of the GERD, and that there will be technical and legal discussions in the interim period.

The Ministers recognize the significant regional benefits that can result from concluding an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with respect to transboundary cooperation, regional development and economic integration that can result from the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed the importance of transboundary cooperation in the development of the Blue Nile to improve the lives of the people of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, and their shared commitment to concluding an agreement.
I highlighted the words that give a clear indication what really happened. They are part of a vocabulary usually used in treaties and accompanying decisions by governments:

Quote:
will: has been agreed. will is not as strong as must or shall but will nevertheless serve the purpose
reaffirm: has been affirmed before, now even stronger, clear commitment
agree: very clear unanimous statement, all sides do agree, no way back
recognize: the reality is - clear acceptance of reality
noting: joint statement that something has been recorded, taken note of
All points with "will" in it have been agreed. The only open question seems to be the item number 4, which is important but is not of pressing importance right now.

The main statements can be found in the last three paragraphs and especially the last paragraph. They indicate that in the future there will be a joint responsibility to address the lives and development of all three countries together.

In particular, GERD is now considered to fight droughts in the two downstream countries.

That is a very relevant development.
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Old January 16th, 2020, 06:17 PM   #1488
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So, no mention of the colonial treaties. Also, I wonder how much water can be accumulated at a rate of two months a year ? Does anyone here know what the criteria is to detrmine a drought river flow?
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Old January 16th, 2020, 06:45 PM   #1489
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So, no mention of the colonial treaties. Also, I wonder how much water can be accumulated at a rate of two months a year ? Does anyone here know what the criteria is to detrmine a drought river flow?
Apparently, 85% of the Blue Nile waters flow from August 1st to October 31st, or 3 months. The Nile river has records of its flow at different locations (in Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt), so there's pretty good information on what those water levels are in drought years and good years. I'm sure they'll base their decision on available data.
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Old January 16th, 2020, 08:32 PM   #1490
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More from the Egyptian perspective
https://madamasr.com/en/2020/01/16/f...on-a-disaster/
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Old January 16th, 2020, 09:07 PM   #1491
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Music to my ears ... it seems the Ethiopians are holding their ground pretty well and the Egyptians are not getting the reward they expected when they involved Trump in the negotiations

Quote:
According to a well-informed consultant for the minister of irrigation on the dam project, the Trump administration is pressuring Egypt to accept Ethiopia’s proposals in return for compensation from the World Bank in the case of any water shortages. The nature of the compensation is unclear as yet.

According to the source, Ethiopia is refusing to commit to a number of key conditions: Firstly, that its annual share of water will be less than 40 billion cubic meters; secondly, that it will provide Egypt with an early notification before the dam’s operations begin; and thirdly, that the operations of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be compatible with the safe operation of the Aswan High Dam — specifically, that the High Dam would be capable of producing sufficient electricity.

“Egypt doesn’t have support from anyone on these demands,” the consultant source said, adding that Cairo finds itself in a weak negotiating position. The source said that Egypt cannot fully go against the wishes of the United States and that they are not getting the kind of support they were hoping for from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
I guess we can thank Abiy for bringing over the UAE and Saudi to our side.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 01:39 PM   #1492
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So, no mention of the colonial treaties. Also, I wonder how much water can be accumulated at a rate of two months a year ? Does anyone here know what the criteria is to detrmine a drought river flow?
No mention of the colonial treaties. In fact and if you read the press release again, Egypt for the very first time accepts that Ethiopia is now sitting in the front seat regarding the Nile.

You can read it everywhere now that the relevant persons consider it a major breakthrough. For now and from the tactical viewpoint it is a large victory - but in the long term and strategically it will bring prosperity and transboundary cooperation to all three countries. Fitsum Arega is saying the same (of course, he is a diplomat now and a diplomat does not claim victory).

All sources say that the filling process "will begin at the end of this year". As the Ethiopian year ends in September we will see the filling process commencing in July.

The message to Salini: hurry up, close the gap in the dam...

Sileshi posted a lot of technical infos through his twitter account including the filling and water release schedule. Worth a read. If I understand it correctly, the release schedule is set in stone while the filling schedule depends on the rains...

Also interesting, that Sileshi considers the filling to be complete 4 years after the initial filling to 595 meters with a probability of 80% and more. He even thinks it could be possible to do it in only 2 or 3 years.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 03:04 PM   #1493
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So glad we have someone like Dr. Seleshi's caliber on our side. He has been the bulldog while the others been playing diplomacy.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 06:49 PM   #1494
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No mention of the colonial treaties. In fact and if you read the press release again, Egypt for the very first time accepts that Ethiopia is now sitting in the front seat regarding the Nile.
U sure ?

Quote:
According to the source, Ethiopia is refusing to commit to a number of key conditions: Firstly, that its annual share of water will be less than 40 billion cubic meters
Egypt wants a treaty that would explicitly guarantee them 40 out of 50 BCM. That's exactly the same amount they see themselves entitled to through the colonial treaty. That's their minimum negotiating position. No wonder even a Trump administration finds them unreasonable despite being the more important partner to them.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 07:40 PM   #1495
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Egypt wants a treaty that would explicitly guarantee them 40 out of 50 BCM. That's exactly the same amount they see themselves entitled too through the colonial treaty. That's their minimum negotiating position. No wonder even a Trump administration finds them unreasonable despite being the more important partner to them.
I watched the full press conference yesterday on VOA Amharic's fb page, given by the foreign and water resource ministers of Ethiopia at the Ethiopian Embassy in DC. Very enlightening (in amharic tho). Dr Sileshi said on there that Ethiopia and Egypt have now agreed on 37 billion m3.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 10:51 PM   #1496
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Dr Sileshi said on there that Ethiopia and Egypt have now agreed on 37 billion m3.
That is not exactly the number Sileshi showed through his twitter account (with filling diagrams etc...), he wrote that the annual inflow is 49 billion m3 and that Ethiopia will store 17 billion m3 each year.

That amounts to 32 billion m3 for Egypt, not 37 and not 40. The original positions were 30 from Ethiopia (as far as I know) and 40 from Egypt (that is sure). So 32 would be a valuable compromise.

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Old January 17th, 2020, 11:04 PM   #1497
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Dr Sileshi said on there that Ethiopia and Egypt have now agreed on 37 billion m3.
Why would we agree on this? Isn't this close to what is in the colonial treaty? What do we have to gain from it apart giving away our sovereignty? So it will mean we won't be able to use the Nile for irrigation in the future? Someone please explain the rationale especially in the long term because as I see it this will limit our utilization of the Nile in the future.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 11:42 PM   #1498
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Why would we agree on this? Isn't this close to what is in the colonial treaty?
I corrected the numbers: Egypt asked for 40, Ethiopia agreed to 32.

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Originally Posted by koutila View Post
What do we have to gain from it apart giving away our sovereignty? So it will mean we won't be able to use the Nile for irrigation in the future? Someone please explain the rationale especially in the long term because as I see it this will limit our utilization of the Nile in the future.
GERD is so close to the boarder with Sudan, that irrigation IS NOT POSSIBLE for Ethiopia. Irrigation simply does not matter at GERD.

Only power generation counts and there are no upwards limits. The only limit to sovereignty is that GERD is considered to produce a minimum amount of water discharge which translates into a mimimum amount of electrical power all year round and during the dry months in particular because all the flow will be going through the turbine-generators.

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Old January 17th, 2020, 11:50 PM   #1499
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Why would we agree on this? Isn't this close to what is in the colonial treaty? What do we have to gain from it apart giving away our sovereignty? So it will mean we won't be able to use the Nile for irrigation in the future? Someone please explain the rationale especially in the long term because as I see it this will limit our utilization of the Nile in the future.
The average flow of the Blue Nile measured at Diem (across the Sudanese border) is about 49 BCM per year (100 year data http://www.fao.org/3/an530e/an530e.pdf). The lowest flow ever recorded was I believe in the mid 80s and was 29 BCM. Ethiopia's current TOTAL irrigation water usage is about 9 BCM per year. So 49-37=12 BCM is still a LOT of water on an average year. Let's always keep in mind that we have other water resources that we can use, while Egypt is 100% dependent on the Nile. It's only natural that the Egyptians want some sort of guarantee that we will not use up all the water. All our basins put together have about 120 BCM. I don't think it's unfair to leave 37 BCM for Egypt and Sudan to share.
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Old January 17th, 2020, 11:58 PM   #1500
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The average flow of the Blue Nile measured at Diem (across the Sudanese border) is about 49 BCM per year (100 year data http://www.fao.org/3/an530e/an530e.pdf). The lowest flow ever recorded was I believe in the mid 80s and was 29 BCM. Ethiopia's current TOTAL irrigation water usage is about 9 BCM per year. So 49-37=12 BCM is still a LOT of water on an average year. Let's always keep in mind that we have other water resources that we can use, while Egypt is 100% dependent on the Nile. It's only natural that the Egyptians want some sort of guarantee that we will not use up all the water, and leave some for them.
The numbers Sileshi showed was 32 billion m3 for Egypt. Consider that the Blue Nile is not the only river going for Egypt. Atbara, Tekeze and Baro add to the picture. So I assume that the 32 billion m3 might contain all sources, not just the Blue Nile and that - in the long run - the Blue Nile will make up 12 billion m3 out of the 17 in play. But I don't know...
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