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Old April 10th, 2019, 10:21 PM   #521
jeremyt
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It's a link to the IMF website..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kijanamwafrika View Post
Even Angola.Last time I saw it was $120B.I do not think it could have contracted that much even if it were for oil prices.Again is it nominal or ppp gdp?
Weakening of i'ts currency against the US dollar as well
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Old April 11th, 2019, 05:35 AM   #522
Amboseli Daima
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremyt View Post


It's a link to the IMF website..



Weakening of i'ts currency against the US dollar as well
Yup that's true ,the Angolan currency the Kwanza has almost halved in value from K214 in April 2018 to 318 to the US$ today. Sometime in Jan 2018 it was 165 Angolan units to $1 US.

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Old April 12th, 2019, 02:02 PM   #523
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With all the economic problems in South Africa and Egypt growing rapidly, I see Egypt getting to position two very soon. South Africa will continue with poor performance as investors get attracted to new African tigers.
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Old April 13th, 2019, 07:08 PM   #524
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhuks View Post
Using the same info graphic -
here are projections for 2024 -

1. Nigeria - $756 billion !! $T in sight!
2. South Africa - $458 billion
3. Egypt - $402 billion - getting closer to SA
4. Algeria - $204 billion
5. Morocco - $166 billion
6. Kenya - $153 billion (closing in on Morrocco)
7. Ethiopia - $138 billion (jumps one spot)
8.Angola - $116 billion
9. Ghana - $97 billion
10. Libya - $85 billion (jumps 4 spots)
11. Tanzania - $84 billion
12. Cote d'Ivoire - $69 billion (jumps one spot)
13. DR Congo - $63 billion
14. Cameroon - $56 billion
15. Uganda - $47 billion -(jumps two spots)
16. Tunisia - $46 billion
17. Sudan - $32 billion - very little change


Its evident Kenya is trying to catch up with the top five - with Ethiopia at its tail!
Keep in mind these are projections -- things could change - drought, global economic slowdown etc
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Last edited by felakuti1; April 13th, 2019 at 07:14 PM.
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Old April 13th, 2019, 10:10 PM   #525
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I doubt that figure for Ethiopia that it will be behind Kenya.Will Tunisia have no growth at all?Some of those figures do not make mathematical sense.Ethiopia has been growing 8-10% and Kenya at 5% so I do not see how they would be behind unless my maths teacher lied to me that 8>5.That figure shows that Kenya would be adding at least $50B in 5 years or $10B per year which is about 10% growth per year and that is false.I know we are patriotic but let us be realistic because if the reality on the ground does not match the numbers it means nothing to Kenyans

Last edited by Kijanamwafrika; April 13th, 2019 at 10:49 PM.
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Old April 13th, 2019, 11:46 PM   #526
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Currency valuation, for Ethiopia to increase exports they've weakened the Birr.... but its still relatively strong to the dollar, 1 dollar is about 28 Birr.

Pretty much what Jeremyt and Amboseli already explained.

So as the need to export more grows, the currency may be weakened some more, or even perhaps made free floating eventually.
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Old April 14th, 2019, 05:59 AM   #527
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kijanamwafrika View Post
I doubt that figure for Ethiopia that it will be behind Kenya.Will Tunisia have no growth at all?Some of those figures do not make mathematical sense.Ethiopia has been growing 8-10% and Kenya at 5% so I do not see how they would be behind unless my maths teacher lied to me that 8>5.That figure shows that Kenya would be adding at least $50B in 5 years or $10B per year which is about 10% growth per year and that is false.I know we are patriotic but let us be realistic because if the reality on the ground does not match the numbers it means nothing to Kenyans
Let me throw in some economics here to make sense of it all.Nothing is false here its all about " underlying economic fundamentals" .

True ,Ethiopia has been growing at 8% but their currency has almost halved since 2015 @$1US = 20.4 ETB to today's rate of $1US = ETB28.8 .

Yes their growth is higher at 8% but so is their inflation which is 9.3% down from 13.8% back in 2017/18.

Kenya 's growth is slower but our currency has been steady as a rock for FIVE solid years trading within the narrow band of 99- 105Kes per $1US and our inflation rate is much lower at 4.4%

Much further abroad is the lesson of Venezuela whose GDP was about $300bn some few years back but due to hyperinflation their GDP is actually lower than Kenya's GDP today …Kenya $100BN vs $78bn for Venezuela.
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Old April 14th, 2019, 06:50 AM   #528
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amboseli Daima View Post
Let me throw in some economics here to make sense of it all.Nothing is false here its all about " underlying economic fundamentals" .

True ,Ethiopia has been growing at 8% but their currency has almost halved since 2015 @$1US = 20.4 ETB to today's rate of $1US = ETB28.8 .

Yes their growth is higher at 8% but so is their inflation which is 9.3% down from 13.8% back in 2017/18.

Kenya 's growth is slower but our currency has been steady as a rock for FIVE solid years trading within the narrow band of 99- 105Kes per $1US and our inflation rate is much lower at 4.4%

Much further abroad is the lesson of Venezuela whose GDP was about $300bn some few years back but due to hyperinflation their GDP is actually lower than Kenya's GDP today …Kenya $100BN vs $78bn for Venezuela.
I think the currency of Kenya has weakened from Kshs 80 five years ago to Kshs 100 to the dollar today.Maybe those figures are purchasing power parity(PPP) not nominal gdp as I thought
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Old April 14th, 2019, 12:56 PM   #529
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They are nominal GDP...You don't seem to understand how nominal GDP is calculated.
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Old April 14th, 2019, 04:37 PM   #530
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremyt View Post
They are nominal GDP...You don't seem to understand how nominal GDP is calculated.
Those figures must be wrong.I do not believe these figures by international organizations which are not based on realities on the ground but ambiguous estimations

Last edited by Kijanamwafrika; April 14th, 2019 at 04:47 PM.
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Old April 14th, 2019, 06:08 PM   #531
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kijanamwafrika View Post
I doubt that figure for Ethiopia that it will be behind Kenya.Will Tunisia have no growth at all?Some of those figures do not make mathematical sense.Ethiopia has been growing 8-10% and Kenya at 5% so I do not see how they would be behind unless my maths teacher lied to me that 8>5.That figure shows that Kenya would be adding at least $50B in 5 years or $10B per year which is about 10% growth per year and that is false.I know we are patriotic but let us be realistic because if the reality on the ground does not match the numbers it means nothing to Kenyans
Please let me try explain: If we ware to use your line of logic, Let us now assume that Somalia starts growing at 10% for the next 10 years and Kenya continue to grow at 2% for the same duration. According to your line of argument, Somalia would be ahead of Kenya. We all know this would not be the case as Somalia would be starting from a low base compared to Kenya. Its the same thing between Ethiopia and Kenya. If Kenya starts growing at 10% for the next 10 years and USA registered 1% for the same duration, Kenya would not be ahead of the USA.

Last edited by Snowlion; April 14th, 2019 at 06:23 PM.
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Old April 14th, 2019, 06:40 PM   #532
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowlion View Post
Please let me try explain: If we ware to use your line of logic, Let us now assume that Somalia starts growing at 10% for the next 10 years and Kenya continue to grow at 2% for the same duration. According to your line of argument, Somalia would be ahead of Kenya. We all know this would not be the case as Somalia would be starting from a low base compared to Kenya. Its the same thing between Ethiopia and Kenya. If Kenya starts growing at 10% for the next 10 years and USA registered 1% for the same duration, Kenya would not be ahead of the USA.
Ethiopia is almost at the same level as Kenya not at a much lower base.USA is one a whole different level than Kenya.The output of a company like Boeing is the same as the whole of the Republic of Kenya.Somalia may be at a lower base but nobody knows the exact gdp.I have seen videos of much more economic activity in Mogadishu and Somalia(including Somaliland) and not all fighting as media reports.

Last edited by Kijanamwafrika; April 14th, 2019 at 06:50 PM.
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Old April 14th, 2019, 07:17 PM   #533
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You clearly seem to demonstrate lack of understanding in the meaning of the term "low base" in this case. Understanding some basic terminologies and fundamentals of economics is crucial if you ware to benefit from any explanation which is not something i can help you with.
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Old April 14th, 2019, 11:33 PM   #534
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowlion View Post

You clearly seem to demonstrate lack of understanding in the meaning of the term "low base" in this case. Understanding some basic terminologies and fundamentals of economics is crucial if you ware to benefit from any explanation which is not something i can help you with.
Is it the same as third base?
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Old April 15th, 2019, 06:46 AM   #535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kijanamwafrika View Post
I doubt that figure for Ethiopia that it will be behind Kenya.Will Tunisia have no growth at all?Some of those figures do not make mathematical sense.Ethiopia has been growing 8-10% and Kenya at 5% so I do not see how they would be behind unless my maths teacher lied to me that 8>5.That figure shows that Kenya would be adding at least $50B in 5 years or $10B per year which is about 10% growth per year and that is false.I know we are patriotic but let us be realistic because if the reality on the ground does not match the numbers it means nothing to Kenyans
Its not just about GDP growth rates. One must also factor in the value of the currency, inflation rates etc. Yes Ethiopia is growing faster than Kenya BUT ITS GROWTH IS ALSO BEING ERODED FASTER!

Kenya doubles its GDP every 10 years. According to IMF our current nominal GDP is about $100 billion. So, in order to achieve a nominal GDP of $200 billion in 2029 our nominal GDP by 2024 must be at least $50 billion more than it is today. If you do the math: 100 billion + 50 billion = 150 billion.

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Old April 15th, 2019, 07:52 AM   #536
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Someone explain to me the Tanzanian situation. When Kikwete was leaving office, werent the GDP figures of both Kenya and Tanzania in the same range, what has brought the drastic difference now
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Old April 15th, 2019, 08:16 AM   #537
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhuks View Post
Someone explain to me the Tanzanian situation. When Kikwete was leaving office, werent the GDP figures of both Kenya and Tanzania in the same range, what has brought the drastic difference now
If I recall correctly, there was credibility concerns that ware raised by IMF and others in relation to how Tanzania had/was collecting and reporting economic data. The models they had been using to calculate their economic activities was not what most other countries used or was expected in order to do proper comparisons

www.exxafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/...

Last edited by Snowlion; April 15th, 2019 at 08:58 AM.
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Old April 15th, 2019, 03:31 PM   #538
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IMF tips Kenya economy to hit Sh10trn this year

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The size of Kenya’s economy is projected to reach the Sh10.1 trillion mark this year, the latest statistical estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have shown.

This will mark the largest absolute expansion in recent years, with the gross domestic product (GDP) estimated to rise by Sh1.1 trillion from Sh9 trillion in 2018.

In percentage terms, the growth this year is estimated at 5.83 percent, a slight decrease from 5.95 percent last year.

If the IMF projections hold out, Kenya’s economy could grow to Sh15.7 trillion in 2023.

The country expects to start commercial oil exports in 2022, a move that is expected to boost the GDP considerably.

A larger economy, coupled with strong growth in the coming years, means better prospects for expansion of jobs, labour earnings, investment opportunities and delivery of social services by the government.

Analysts say the government needs to entrench macroeconomic stability to maintain the growth momentum.

“We need low inflation, predictable interest rates and an environment of policy stability to attract private sector investment,” Robert Bunyi, an investment analyst, told the Business Daily.

Massive investments

Kenya’s current economic growth momentum is being fuelled by massive investments by the government and the private sector amid a favourable macroeconomic environment featuring low inflation and controlled interest rates.

The government continues to invest heavily in energy and infrastructure projects, including roads and the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).

A substantial part of private sector investment is being channelled into real estate.

IMF’s growth estimates are based on the current market prices using exchange rates prevailing between January 14 to February 11.

They are also reliant on several assumptions, such as that established policies of national authorities will be maintained and that the average price of oil will be $59.16 a barrel in 2019 and $59.02 a barrel in 2020 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the next few years.

Dominant

Kenya’s economy is expected to remain dominant in the region, staying ahead of its rivals in terms of overall size and the welfare of the average citizen as expressed in GDP per capita.

Ethiopia’s GDP, which was previously tipped to overtake Kenya’s economy, is now projected to grow 7.7 per cent to $90.9 billion (Sh9 trillion) this year.

That of Uganda is expected to expand 6.2 per cent to $30.3 billion (Sh3 trillion).

Tanzania is estimated to register the lowest growth rate of 3.9 per cent to $61 billion (Sh6.1 trillion), interrupting its recent rapid expansion that has stood at more than six per cent per annum.
Note: That is an edited version. Please read the full article here
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Old April 15th, 2019, 03:36 PM   #539
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If they are projecting using oil revenues coming in by 2022 it makes sense.I wonder if they have started exporting the oil they had been storing in Mombasa.If the oil revenue is used well it could have great multiplier effect.What happened to Uganda oil?
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Old April 15th, 2019, 03:58 PM   #540
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Quote:
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I wonder if they have started exporting the oil they had been storing in Mombasa.If the oil revenue is used well it could have great multiplier effect.What happened to Uganda oil?
I thought they had started exporting the oil. I regularly see those trucks from Turkana passing through Eldoret so I assumed they had to be exporting it.
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