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Old September 21st, 2019, 07:11 PM   #6501
Home Grown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoomwhoosh View Post
Martin Place metro construction site yesterday.
Sorry about the reflections, but there's lots of interesting things going on.
Notice the roadheader on the far left.
I know your name is zoom but still... FIFY. Too big.

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Does anyone know if an underground link to the MLC Centre will be kept from the new south station entrance? Plans show it as a maybe.

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Old September 22nd, 2019, 12:37 AM   #6502
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Construction cost inflation is running at about 5% and the NWRL tunnel contract was signed in 2013. That alone pushes it to almost 100m, and that was a particularly easy tunnelling environment.
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 02:33 AM   #6503
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That's altogether too broad a brush snowboard. Those I speak to who do tunneling tell me a different story about how the industry is maturing and the technology is improving. And yes Hawkesbury sandstone is a near ideal environment, but its also the default across Sydney and across the Hawkesbury (not surprising given the name).

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Old September 22nd, 2019, 06:08 AM   #6504
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CoS wants an MLC link in the final development
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 06:34 AM   #6505
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CoS wants an MLC link in the final development
As it should have had from the beginning given there was an existing connection
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 07:47 AM   #6506
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Clover only chimed in when it was walled off.
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I put the no in “yeah sounds good I’ll let you know”
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 08:15 AM   #6507
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If you go back to the original EIS the MLC had put in a letter, as had a number of individuals.

CoS, as usual, Mia

Probably all focussed on the latest Cloud Arch drawings.. love to know what that exercise has cost the ratepayer.
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 10:13 AM   #6508
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I can point you to the Sydney Metro Northwest tunnel which cost $70 M/km for the bare tunnel. (The tunnel and station excavation contract was $1.15 billion for 15 km of twin tunnel plus station boxes). I can also tell you that my figures for track, power and signal come from my colleague whose full time job is pricing rail infrastructure.

You can easily get to an average figure of $200 M/km if you're averaging in stations. And there are many projects that are quoted on this basis.

Also, if you have a costing for a bare tunnel under similar geological conditions where the cost of the tunnel alone has been broken out as clearly as it has been done in the case of the metro northwest tunnels, then I'd be very happy to see your reference.
$1.15b for 15km of tunnel comes in at just under $80m/km. That was for a project that started in 2011. Eight years of compound inflation would bring you pretty close to $100m/km.

The NW metro cost $7.3b in total. The stations probably cost about $2b of that ($300m per underground station, $100m per above ground station). Rolling stock and stabling another $1-1.5b. So that leaves about $4b for the whole project costs of building the line (or $173m/km), which was 15km underground and 8km elevated.
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 10:27 AM   #6509
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoomwhoosh View Post
That's altogether too broad a brush snowboard. Those I speak to who do tunneling tell me a different story about how the industry is maturing and the technology is improving. And yes Hawkesbury sandstone is a near ideal environment, but its also the default across Sydney and across the Hawkesbury (not surprising given the name).
Constantly when people point out what is wrong with what you are saying, you have recourse to secret conversations with industry insiders. It's disingenuous, if not deliberately dishonest.

Of course a train company is going to tell you that they'll be making better trains, and a tunnelling company that they'll be able to dig cheaper tunnels. That's what businesses will always say to people who make inquiries. But you have to wait until the evidence before basing anything on it. Otherwise you're just falling for Elon Musk-style bluster.
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 10:46 AM   #6510
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Quote:
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$1.15b for 15km of tunnel comes in at just under $80m/km.
Yes and that averages $77 M/km.
I've subtracted a figure for the station boxes ($100M) in order to arrive at the cost of the tunnel itself.

Quote:
That was for a project that started in 2011. Eight years of compound inflation would bring you pretty close to $100m/km.
According to the Reserve Bank's inflation calculator, that $70M becomes $82.53M.

You're also making the assumption that the cost should escalate with inflation. Whereas the costs of tunneling have actually fallen - and for a number of reasons.

Quote:
The NW metro cost $7.3b in total. The stations probably cost about $2b of that ($300m per underground station, $100m per above ground station). Rolling stock and stabling another $1-1.5b. So that leaves about $4b for the whole project costs of building the line (or $173m/km), which was 15km underground and 8km elevated.
You're leaving out the cost of the viaduct. From memory that was over $100M/km just for the structure. You're leaving out the costs of conversion of the existing Epping to Chatswood line.

Simple fact. Of the entire $8 billion cost, a billion is tunnel. Which is why I've consistently pointed out that tunnels per-se are not the big ticket item some people think they are.

And the reason why I work with the raw tunnel cost, separate from the cost of the rail line that goes into it, is because too often the discussion is about the relative cost of going via tunnel versus going via some other route. Given that you still have to add the rail line to whatever path you take its fairer to compare the basic tunnel cost versus the basic civil engineering cost of whatever other route you're talking about.
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 10:47 AM   #6511
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Quote:
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It's disingenuous, if not deliberately dishonest.
I make use of the best information I have. You on the other hand repeatedly resort to incivility.

...
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I said "credible".
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we're supposed to trust you
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because I've gone through this already and you don't really grasp it
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I'm not talking about with your magic fantasy trains.
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There is no call for that kind of disrespect.
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Old September 22nd, 2019, 11:11 AM   #6512
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There is absolutely no evidence for tunnelling costs falling. As snowboard points out, inflation for construction (and tunnelling is not exempt from this) is more like 5% p.a. at the moment.

In general, viaducts are cheaper than tunnels, and the NW metro was no exception (otherwise they would have just tunnelled the whole way). And how much was the Epping-Chatswood conversion? It just involved putting PSDs in the stations and changing the signalling. Maybe $500m at the most. That still leaves you with $3.5b for the line sans stations (and other auxiliary costs).
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Old September 23rd, 2019, 12:31 AM   #6513
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As it should have had from the beginning given there was an existing connection
I don't understand why they wouldn't want to keep it. It expands the reach of the station just that little bit more, especially in bad weather.
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Old September 23rd, 2019, 01:59 AM   #6514
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I don't understand why they wouldn't want to keep it. It expands the reach of the station just that little bit more, especially in bad weather.
Yes, gives you covered access to Town Hall for convenient interchange.
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Old September 23rd, 2019, 06:02 AM   #6515
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Quote:
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There is absolutely no evidence for tunnelling costs falling. As snowboard points out, inflation for construction (and tunnelling is not exempt from this) is more like 5% p.a. at the moment.

In general, viaducts are cheaper than tunnels, and the NW metro was no exception (otherwise they would have just tunnelled the whole way). And how much was the Epping-Chatswood conversion? It just involved putting PSDs in the stations and changing the signalling. Maybe $500m at the most. That still leaves you with $3.5b for the line sans stations (and other auxiliary costs).
I don't think tunnelling costs are rising in the same way as "general construction", but they're not driven by the same things. There's much less design, supply chain is completely different for almost everything except reo & concrete. Costs are driven by how quickly you can back yourself to do the job as much as anything else (the "house load" in terms of daily overhead is huge). It's hard to tell in a market where only one tunnelling team appears able to make money out of successfully delivering projects, and where Salini in particular keep leaving 9 figure sums on the table in bids........

TBM driven tunnels are more predictable in cost than roadheader ones. Until they go badly wrong, when all bets are off (but most of the losses will be insured)


ECRL conversion consisted of PSDs, general upgrades to stations (included HVAC, so not just signage, paint and a clean up), replacement of signalling infrastructure, separation of Sydney Trains systems, control/comms system interfacing (to connect BMS to new control centre, for example), and upgrading of power systems (mostly auxiliary feeders) for greater frequency


Metro NW a bit of an outlier for viaduct/tunnel costs as the former cost a lot more than the latter. Partly because they had to paya few claims and a bunch of money to get the Skytrain contractor to finish, partly because they had to throw some money at the follow on contract to make up for the late handover of the viaduct

But yes, in general overhead railways are cheaper than tunnelled ones. But not by as much as you'd think

The killer for U/G railways is and always will be the stations

BTW fitting out U/G railways is harder than doing them elevated (and much harder than at grade) because you only have one point of access, so the logistics are a pain in the arse. You can get the costs down considerably through mechanisation

If you want to do some rough sums, the Sydney Metro Linewide Works contract was let for about $1.3bn. It covers full fitout of the underground tunnel systems from Chatswood-Sydenham including tunnel ventilation but excluding PSDs and signalling, plus the power systems for the whole railway (ie to Bankstown as well), plus a bit of depot work. Maybe take 75% of that cost and work it out per km. Of course, the figures include contractors prelims (staff, attendant labour, insurance, offices, OH& Profit etc) but you'll always be paying that somehow
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Old September 24th, 2019, 08:27 AM   #6516
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Some epic photos of Metro excavation work at Central Rail Station from Sydney Metro Facebook page.
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Old September 24th, 2019, 12:14 PM   #6517
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Looks like Mabel breakthrough happened on Monday. Didn't see any media.
https://twitter.com/APPCorp/status/1...939710464?s=19

Wendy looks to have been dragged through the station cabin.

Not sure what's up with Nancy - only showing as having progressed 10m since Fri morning.
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Old September 25th, 2019, 01:22 PM   #6518
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milestones like this shudl be getting reported on...crazy that they arent
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Old September 25th, 2019, 02:14 PM   #6519
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milestones like this shudl be getting reported on...crazy that they arent
It’s not as much a milestone when its the second of two TBM’s, and the other one got to the same point a few weeks earlier.
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Old September 26th, 2019, 07:15 AM   #6520
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milestones like this shudl be getting reported on...crazy that they arent
I remember being told by a pressman once that to be a good story, News had to be “new, true and different”

Fails the third test
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