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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
After BRICs, look to CIVETS for growth - HSBC CEO

After the dynamic growth of the BRIC countries in the last decade, a batch of six more countries -- the CIVETS -- will be the ones to watch in the next 10 years, HSBC's chief executive predicted.

Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa will take over as the new BRICs, as Brazil, Russia, India and China were dubbed a decade ago.

"Each has a very bright future," HSBC CEO Michael Geoghegan said of the CIVETS, named after the cat-like animals found in some of the countries. "Each has large, young, growing population. Each has a diverse and dynamic economy. And each, in relative terms, is politically stable."

Geoghegan, whose bank is the biggest in Europe but is targeting emerging markets for growth, said the growing importance of countries also including Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey will continue the power shift away from traditional economic strongholds of Europe and the United States.

Emerging markets will grow three times faster than developed countries this year and are driving global recovery, he said.

"Within three years, for the first time, the economic firepower of emerging markets will overtake the developed world, measured by purchasing power parity. It's a defining moment."

The size of the emerging market middle class will swell to 1.2 billion people by 2030, from 250 million in 2000, he said.


That bodes well for financial services, as households tend to open bank accounts and ask for other products when income reaches about $10,000, Geoghegan said.

"Many Chinese households are about to hit this level. They number about 33 million now. But they will quadruple to 155 million by 2014. In India, the change will also be dramatic," he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63Q26Q20100427

Forget about the BRIC, So now we are the CIVETS!!! COOL!
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
CIVETS: The New BRIC in the Wall of International Investing

These new emerging markets are the next hot regions to many

Most international investors likely are familiar with BRIC investment and funds – an acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China. For nearly a decade, the term BRIC has been synonymous with emerging market investment opportunity. But recently a new emerging market acronym is gaining currency: CIVETS.

BRIC investment countries have proven their merit when it comes to outpacing the field in terms of both economic growth and potential upside for investors. And while not all BRICs are created equal—China being the biggest and best performer—the grouping of these countries together as areas of burgeoning investment opportunity has largely been proven accurate. But recently, economist Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs, the man who originally coined the initial term BRICs, has designate what he thinks are the next great emerging market opportunities — Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa. The CIVETS for short.

These CIVETS countries have the potential to deliver investors some sizeable returns over the next several years and beyond. Already the equity markets in each of these nations have shown big gains, and thanks to country-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs), individual investors now have the ability to easily and efficiently gain exposure to these hot markets.

So, what’s driving the CIVETS economies higher? Well, all of them boast a large, young and growing population, and each can honestly say they have a diverse economy. Politically speaking, each of the CIVETS are relatively stable, but remember that the term “stable” is a little more tenuous when discussing emerging market countries. The CIVETS nations also are by and large rich in natural resources, and their citizens are for the most part experiencing growing personal incomes. But perhaps the biggest growth driver pushing the CIVETS nations higher is their connection to China.

Recently, the expression “new Silk Road” has been used to describe the growing commercial interaction between the emerging markets of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. The original Silk Road was the emergence of trade routes that established commerce between Asia, the Middle East and Europe around the second century. This 21st-century version of the Silk Road largely connects China and its voracious demand for commodities with commodity-producing countries—many of which are CIVETS nations. As China’s booming economy continues growing, so too will the CIVETS economies—and likely their stock markets—and that means big potential gains for the ETFs tied to CIVETS countries.

Here are the six major ETFs tied to the CIVETS:

Columbia: Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 (GXG)
Indonesia: Market Vectors Indonesia Index (IDX)
Vietnam: Market Vectors Vietnam (VNM)
Egypt: Market Vectors Egypt Index (EGPT)
Turkey: iShares MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)
South Africa: iShares MSCI South Africa (EZA)

The biggest ETF winners here so far in 2010 are Columbia (+41.03%), Indonesia (+25.67%) and Turkey (+11.06%). Egypt has only seen a small gain over the past three months (EGPT began trading in February 2010), while Vietnam is down -11.62% year to date. Two thirds of the CIVETS nations have made investors some serious money this year, and as you can see by the table below, these ETFs pack some powerful, fast-paced growth punch.



Note that EGPT only began trading in February, so there is not a full-year record for the ETF.

If you’re an international investor looking for robust growth opportunities, then you owe yourself a closer look at the CIVETS.
http://www.investorplace.com/stock-...c-in-the-wall-of-international-investing.html


Right, so we are not the best nor the worst. but notice where it say

Note that EGPT only began trading in February, so there is not a full-year record for the ETF.
kelaab they have a typo there :lol: but it meant Egypt started trading this February, that's I think, we have just started and with a good positive start not a single minus. I hope it grow fast.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
Yup, you know what I'm loving about this? the same guy who came up with BRIC came up with this :D

Also I noticed that EGPT is not a typo lol.

Forget About BRIC: Try These Emerging Economies Instead

The BRICs are out-of-style. Brazil, Russia, India and China are already yesterday's investing theme. And as it becomes increasingly apparent that the United States and Europe will be growth-constrained in the near future, investors are now checking out a new bloc of emerging economies called the CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa).

Growth in these countries has started to catch the attention of globally-focused money managers and, conveniently, there is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focusing on each country that allows individual investors to own a piece. The question is, are these countries suitable for your portfolio?

Looking under the hood
Over the years, I have had the good fortune to travel extensively and have brought back a few investing perspectives from my trips to Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt and Turkey (I've never been to South Africa). And after consulting with Nathan Slaughter, our resident ETF expert at StreetAuthority, here are my cursory thoughts:

Vietnam -- I was extremely impressed by this country during my visit in 2007. It is blessed with a low-cost but hard-working labor force, an increasingly strong transportation infrastructure, a domestic population of 88 million (larger than any country in Europe) ripe for a burgeoning middle class, and fairly impressive offshore oil and gas deposits. In fact, on that trip, I found Vietnam to be organized and efficient compared to my trip to the seeming hurly-burly of China, which seemed to be choking on growth at every turn. At the time of my trip, Intel (INTC) and other tech firms were starting to build large factories to tap into Vietnam's' labor pool.

Three years after my trip, Vietnam has unfortunately been beset by a range of problems, most notably stubbornly high inflation of 9%, trade deficits, an -8% government budget deficit and a government that seems ill-equipped to handle the transition from communism to capitalism. On this front, Chinese planners now look far savvier. Vietnam has been forced to devalue its currency in the face of its trade and inflation problems.

Yet Vietnam's future is quite bright once it tackles these problems. Tourism revenue is surging and Vietnam could easily catch up to Thailand as the go-to destination for Southeast Asia beachgoers. Secondly, wages in China are starting to rise, and Vietnam is steadily taking its share of new Western manufacturing plants. Finally, a middle class is really starting to emerge, especially as ex-nationals residing in North America and France return with plenty of money to invest.

The Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM) hovers near a 52-week low, due to the reasons noted above. But a stumble should have been expected. After all, Vietnam's economy had seen a remarkable run during the past decade that helped fuel a +400% jump in per capita disposable income. The current growing pains are solvable, and I am a firm believer that Vietnam's prospects remain very bright and this ETF will stage a robust rebound after the current negative economic issues have passed.

Egypt -- In the spirit of diplomacy, I will simply say that Egypt faces major challenges, most notably a very poor infrastructure and a fast-growing, yet under-employed population, the majority of which is under 25 years old. It's hard to see how Egypt can generate high rates of job growth that will bring down its high unemployment rate, especially with the government's track record of ineffectual policies. My experience in Cairo revealed a city that was cratering under the weight of a groaning population.

Egypt will have new leadership in the next year. If it is a crony or the son of current President Hosni Mubarak, then the situation is unlikely to change. But if Mohammed El-Baradai, the well-regarded nuclear arms inspector, is elected (which is admittedly a long-shot), then sound government practices may get put into place. The Market Vectors Egypt Index (EGPT) would ultimately be the way to play such a turnaround, but it is too thinly-traded for most investors to consider it at this time.

Indonesia -- First of all, it's hard to ignore Indonesia's size (243 million). The government has apparently been effective in finally tackling corruption and nepotism and the economy is growing at a strong pace. But I have little first-hand insight into Indonesia's prospects, so I turned to Nathan Slaughter, for insight. Nathan has been following developments in this country for some time now, and is quite bullish about its prospects.

Here's what he told his Market Advisor subscribers in May:

...some of the biggest beneficiaries of China's juggernaut economy are found well outside the country's borders. Many smaller neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are being pulled into China's orbit. With the landmark ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement taking effect this past January, it's now easier than ever for foreign producers to get their products in the hands of Chinese consumers and businesses.

The Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (IDX) has had a strong run and hovers near an all-time high.

Turkey -- My 2009 visit to Istanbul, Turkey left me very impressed. I was not expecting to find such a highly-developed economy, highlighted by very strong banking, tourism and manufacturing sectors. Turkey has established itself as a global trading powerhouse in the past two decades, and concerns that a new government that is less pliable to Western interests would hurt economic prospects are unfounded. Turkey's religious class is feuding with its secular class, and some are concerned that it could spiral into a more aggressive internal dispute -- always a bad thing for stock markets. But that possibility still appears remote.

Turkey is possibly the most advantageously-situated country in the world, just steps away from Southern Europe, central Asia, Russia and the Middle East. As a result, the country is boosting trade in virtually every direction. Turkey's industrial output is up +15% from a year ago. Few countries in the world can say that right now. As Turkey's trading partners get back on their feet, Turkey's low-cost but very efficient industrial sector could emerge as the backbone of the region, much as German factories export across Europe.

The iShares Trust MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) is up more than +15% year-to-date, but in the context of the country's long-term growth prospects, that advance should mean little to investors. Equally important, Turkey's economy and stock market are increasingly de-coupled from the West, so any hiccups in the United States and Europe aren't likely to be felt as severely with this ETF.

Colombia -- I've saved the best for last. After numerous trips to Argentina and Chile over the years, I had been led to believe that Colombia was a relative backwater. Instead, I found Bogota, the capital city, to be remarkably dynamic, the national infrastructure outside of the major cities to be very well-developed, and most importantly, the country's large middle class to be very savvy. Colombia is also sitting on a vast set of natural resources and is becoming an export powerhouse in everything from cut flowers to oil to gold.

But the secret is out. The country's stock market has tripled during the past 18 months. Much of that gain is due to an ongoing peace dividend that has come from the sharp reduction in violence. So, whether you should buy into the Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Columbia (GXG) ETF depends on your time horizon. The index appears ripe for profit-taking, and investors may still be spooked by another round of violence between the government and guerillas. But over the long-term, it's hard to understate just how many strengths this country has. I'm very bullish on Latin America more broadly, thanks to rising incomes in Brazil, Chile and elsewhere. Colombia can count on robust trade flows with those countries well into the future.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/223...these-emerging-economies-instead?source=yahoo
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
MASRI, the guy said it all in the last article.

Egypt -- In the spirit of diplomacy, I will simply say that Egypt faces major challenges, most notably a very poor infrastructure and a fast-growing, yet under-employed population, the majority of which is under 25 years old. It's hard to see how Egypt can generate high rates of job growth that will bring down its high unemployment rate, especially with the government's track record of ineffectual policies. My experience in Cairo revealed a city that was cratering under the weight of a groaning population.

Egypt will have new leadership in the next year. If it is a crony or the son of current President Hosni Mubarak, then the situation is unlikely to change. But if Mohammed El-Baradai, the well-regarded nuclear arms inspector, is elected (which is admittedly a long-shot), then sound government practices may get put into place. The Market Vectors Egypt Index (EGPT) would ultimately be the way to play such a turnaround, but it is too thinly-traded for most investors to consider it at this time.
It's a matter of change.
 

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^^

Although to be quite honest Gamal Mubarak's policies played a role in improving our economy immensley in the past 5-7 years.

However, if he does not fight corruption, the money will keep feeding the upper class, and poverty will continue to increase. And when we find someone like Ahmed Ezz hold an influential spot in the NDP, one has to be far from optimistic about Gamal.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Well, it's not like we going into a black hole if gamal gets it, After all the guy was educated outside Egypt, and have a background of other markets. It's just matter of genes. I personally don't mind Gamal for the next 5 years but after that he don't get greedy as his daddy. but I prefer El-Baradei first due to age. :lol: the younger the better.
 

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Thanks for that, very interesting.

What he said about Egypt is very true unfortunately. As a matter of fact, out of the CIVETS Egypt seems like the least attractive one.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
^^ nope, it's not like that. he didn't talk about SA, but if you read Vietnam. it's like they having big problems. so currently it's a race between Egypt and Vietnam. we even have the same population and a higher GDP PPP and Normal. also we not very far behind South Africa infact we have higher population than South Africa and less problems.

So it's matter of what will happen next year. 2olo ya rab :D
 

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Well, it's not like we going into a black hole if gamal gets it, After all the guy was educated outside Egypt, and have a background of other markets. It's just matter of genes. I personally don't mind Gamal for the next 5 years but after that he don't get greedy as his daddy. but I prefer El-Baradei first due to age. :lol: the younger the better.
It is not a matter of being educated in Egypt or "internationally". It is a matter of having a true vision for the future. And by the way, Gamal graduated from the AUC. He worked as an investment banker in London, but he did not graduate outside of Egypt.

Just looking at his history, there is nothing to make me feel positive about him running Egyptian with a real vision. All I see is someone like Ahmed Ezz being Prime Minister. Imagine that..

:eek:hno:
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Okey that's true. but "2na ba3 el zan 2sem" :lol: Let just not judge him before his total propaganda campaign. we can already see corruption in his campaign but let see what everyone will have to say about themselves. After all if El Baradei didn't make it. which one of the following would you choose as a president?

Gamal? Muabrak? Ayman Nour? El Bana?

i'm sure you'd go for gamal he's the best option there.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
^^ That's ElBaradei's word. YOU ARE CHEATING! :lol: lol honestly it's a good solution, but do you think it's hard to get couple of soldiers from the army to elect Gamal?
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
But that's a Golden ticket to rule Egypt until the end of our lifes :eek:hno:

The solution I'm thinking of is just that we Egypt's people threat the government/mubrak YES I'm saying threat it's not a typo nor your dreaming, if we unity we can threat them for a revolution if the next elections isn't fair. and as Oraby did we just double our numbers when ever they try and stop us. they wont do as the police did in Alexandria and brutally killed Khalid the world Media will be with us. but there is potability of use chemical weapons which is bad :(
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
My friend back them Egyptians where as terrified as today if not more terrified. It's just they were fed up and scared going down. then when someone come and start protesting everyone goes down the street. believe me if it start with 100 people they going to be 100,000 in less than 10mins.

The other day there was a protest and they passed by my street and simply everyone left what they where doing and went down. but it was about Gaza. Same thing happen in School.

Also don't worries I have couple of helllah ma7esh :D or am I so 70's :lol: what's new today?
 

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CIVETS ? Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa

MAVINS : Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa.

I'm lost. :nuts:

South Africa is already one of the MAVINS: Mexico, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa.

SA doesn't belong in BRIC, and actually neither does Russia, which is just an authoritarian petro-state.
South Africa wants to be considered a BRIC
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
lol you may also want to search N11 and D8
 
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