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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Please post News on CRE, Condos, and Homebuilding


The Spire has crashed in the Atlanta Midtown condo market . Just opened Spire, a 28-story building with 388 condos has 104 units on the market--26% vacant. The Bubble has burst.

The builder, Novare, sold out Spire quickly, after enjoying great success in 2002 with the 498-unit Metropolis across the street, but Spire's 96 resellers (flippers?) and 6 owners hoping to rent out their units are in deep trouble.

Prices range from $167k to $768k for 1 & 2bedroom units.
http://ianmarshall.mlsb.com/mls/res...UMB=860&STREET_NAM=peachtree&CITY_NAME='6198'

New stuff sells in Atlanta because Atlantans are willing to pay a premium for the latest & greatest--but as Metropolis resellers are finding out--that premium doesn't last long.

Is Atlanta's condo market is going to have a soft landing? New buildings are probably going to do well--just not as well as before. But existing condo owners inside the Perimeter can forget about making a fast buck. In fact, Fulton County property records show that many condo dwellers will lose money. Many had to sell for 10 to 15 percent less than what they paid if they purchased at inflated prices during the 1999-2001 period.

The problem with many condo buyers is that their purchasing decision is based on what they can afford for a monthly payment instead of a realistic resale value 2 to 4 years later. Many find that prices declined two years later instead of rising.

Not to speak of the rest of ATL--just the Midtown area has no less than 1,000 units coming on line and several thousand in the planning stages. Let’s name a few mega projects: Atlantic Station, Plaza Midtown, Centennial Park, Onyx, Aqua, 13th St conversion, and we’re not even considering all the new supply in Buckhead and elsewhere inside the Perimeter.

The resell market for condos is really bad. High interest rates are pushing out marginal buyers and condo speculators.

Who’s hiring? Who’s relocating here beside Louisiana evacuees? Tourism payrolls got a big boost from New Orleans’s woes—we got evacuees in hotels and conventions that relocated here. Ticker counters can’t afford a Midtown condo.

Midtown white-collar condo-paying jobs are booming right? No. Atlanta has a great long-term future, but the short-term is dismal. Besides the announced closure of Ft. McPherson, there are mergers, layoffs, and shutdowns affecting GM, Ford, ATT/Bellsouth, Cingular, Hewlett Packard, Delta—just to name a few. Granted, auto workers don’t live in Midtown.
 

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I know you're new here, but it is generally considered bad form to post the same message in multiple threads, especially when you are starting a new thread with a post from another message thread.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Zips 30308/30309 List of Planned Construction Planned & underway Activity

For a forecast of GA and ATL, see
http://www.rdhawan.com/
Rajeev Dhawan wears a dual hat as Associate Professor of Managerial Sciences and as Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at the Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University in Atlanta, Georgia.


****New Construction Source: TWR
Building/Address
The Enclave Condominiums 2282 Peachtree Rd NW
The Reynolds Condominium Building w/Pool 565 Peachtree St NE
One City Center Condominium Tower (406 Units) 860 Peachtree St NE
The Aramore Condominiums (Phase 3) (NEGOTIATED) 2245 Peachtree Rd NE
The Plaza Midtown Condominiums/Retail (NEGOTIATED) 950 W Peachtree St NW
City Park Townhouses (6 Buildings/143 Units) 200 26th St NW

Midtown Apartments/Retail/Parking Deck Juniper St - Linden Ave -
615 Peachtree Street Condominiums 615 W Peachtree St
Post Apartment/Condominiums Peachtree St NE
Midtown Condominium Tower 11th & West Peachtree St
Einstein's Condominiums with Swimming Pool West Peachtree St & 13th St
Westchester at Buckhead Apartments Roswell Rd
The Park at East Place Condominiums/Townhomes/Pool Roxboro & East Paces Ferry Rd
Dewberry Ansley Condominium Beverly Rd NE
Midtown Condominium/Retail Peachtree St - Between 11th &
Midtown Manor Townhomes (NEGOTIATED) 796 Piedmont Ave NE -
Condominium Towers w/Swimming Pool 845 Peachtree St NE - Between
Peach Condominiums (Conversion of Former Office Building) 1655 Peachtree St
Buckhead Village Condominiums Roswell Rd & Irby Ave
TWELVE Centennial Park Apartment/Condominium (Ph 2) Ivan Allen Jr Blvd
Buckhead Place Condominiums and Retail 3232 Peachtree Rd NE
Dewberry Rhodes Condominiums Peachtree & Spring Sts
Condominium Towers Spring St - Williams St -
Tremont Condominiums and Townhomes Habersham Rd - Between
Condominium Tower (22 Stories) 16th St at I-75/85
Gallery Buckhead Condominium Building Peachtree and Rumson Rds
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
WSJ - Home prices restrained for ATL

See WSJ quote below:

"Atlanta also benefits from a healthy job market, due partly to the city's role as a regional hub and a magnet for immigrants and conventions. J. Lewis Glenn, president of Harry Norman Realtors, says the total value of homes sold by the big local firm in March was up more than 10% from a year earlier. Unlike Dallas and Houston, though, Atlanta's inventory also is up substantially -- 15% -- from a year earlier, according to SmartNumbers LLC, a local research firm. That bulge should restrain price increases."


According to the article, the ATL forecast is for "job growth through 2008" using Moody's Economy.com numbers. What does this forecast assume for 2007--high U.S. growth, slowdown, recession?

Note: Housing inventory is up 15%, according to WSJ. In three years, a lot can happen. My bet is sluggish price appreciation for the next two years. Let's hope the economy does not flounder in 2007 and 2008, as it did in previous election cycles (1992), (2000). Btw, the recessions were coincidental to elections--not caused by them.
 
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