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What's up with all the talks about Vilnius' high population growth?
High depopulation of other cities and low population growth of Vilnius city. It has some influence for the perspective i guess.

But yes, other cities do have metro area :D

The real point here is how much influence for the city skyline has population (i think the main point is the policy of the city as somebody mentioned) and also Vilnius would take many years to equal with Riga by population even if the tendencys wouldn't change.

And one more thing, Latvia is planning new tax for the realty. It will increase the payment for the realty very much (atleast 25%) so this can hurt investment to your realty market very hard.
 

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DoM
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@Rebasepoiss: Somewhere at www.vilnius.lt I saw predictions of population growth for Vilnius. I'll try to find it later. Main arguments are that Vilnius has bigger resources of inner migration and re emigration + better and better natural growth.
 

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I think that it's much easier to guess which city will have the biggest population growth in comming 10 years (Vilnius) :)
I think people should stop pulling ideas out of their asses :I
Oh here, ill do it too:
Look at Lithuania, 3 big cities, Klaipeda, Kaunas and Vilnius... you really think this situation is comparable with Estonia and Latvia where there is really ONE city....? Dont you see there will be huge competition between the three cities in Lithuania, with all drawing some population, the way I see it - Vilnius has the least growth potential..
 

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And the only reason Vilnius is showing "population growth" is because your city area is HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE, encompassing the outer areas where this suburbanization is leading all baltic capital populations, in Tallinn and Riga were "loosing" people to suburbanization, while in Vilnius this isnt practically an issue!
 

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And the only reason Vilnius is showing "population growth" is because your city area is HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE, encompassing the outer areas where this suburbanization is leading all baltic capital populations, in Tallinn and Riga were "loosing" people to suburbanization, while in Vilnius this isnt practically an issue!
:eek:hno: :eek:hno: :eek:hno:
Vilnius "loosing" people to suburbanization the same as Tallinn and Riga but it is all the same have growth.
 

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DoM
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I know it's hard to admit it, but relax guys. :) First of all ch1le, you can look at municipality+region or just Vilnius city population number growth if that HUGE area of Vilnius municipality scares you so much. :) Secondly, these ideas are not pulled out of the asses. ;) In most documents with population forecasts which I saw the situation in Vilnius was described as the best one out of the Baltic state capitals. Of course you can ignore them, no one can 100% forecast the future populations of our cities. Just wait and see for yourself. Thirdly, it seems that you don't know the situation in Lithuania. People from Kaunas usually make such jokes out of citizens of Vilnius: "citizens of Vilnius = villagers + excitizens of Kaunas". There is some truth in these words, many people from Kaunas moved to Vilnius. So really, I hope now you can see what kind of "competition" we have. If there will be competition between three biggest Lithuanian cities in this sphere in the future, Tallinn will still not have such numbers of people behind it as Vilnius. Also, don't forget that quite soon 160km/h trains will be available between Vilnius and Kaunas (I'm sure they will be faster after 10-15 years though ;)), so it's only a big +.
 

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2006 01 01 - 2007 01 01

Vilnius city
+856

Vilnius district (not county)
+570

Vilnius city
+458 more newborn babies in 2006 than in a previous year

Average "daytime population" in 2005 (According to municipality and department of statistics of Lithuania)
673 000

Future

According to strategic plan of the city, prepared by specialists, not by politicians or us, Vilnius city in 2015:

city population - 576 000
Daytime population - 716 000
Metro area population - 875 000
 

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Depopulation is higher in Latvia and Estonia - that's true and its logical:
Lithuanian population is 90% catholic right, while Latvian and Estonian are mostly protestant and a bit orthodox, and assuming that level of deaths and life expectation in all 3 countries are pretty much equal, this means that catholic Lithuanians make more babies! ;) :D
But it's true - catholic people have generally a bit more children that protestant people. And many really religious catholics don't use contraceptives... :bash: :D I know a truly catholic family in Eastern Latvia who are are like that - have 7 kinds and expecting 8th... :eek:hno:
 

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Yes Estonia is VERY close to having positive population growth (its positive in Harjumaa already)... not to mention our net migration is positive, not the same situation as in Latvia, not even mentioning Lithuania!
 

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Nihongo Luvr
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Estonia had positive population change in July and August 2006. This year the population change of Estonia became positive already in June. If the positive trend continues, that is growing birth-rate and sustained positive immigration, then in about one or two years Estonia will have annual growth. ;)

Main Social and Economic Indicators of Estonia, July 2007:
http://www.stat.ee/files/evaljaanded/2007/pohinaitajad-200707.pdf
 

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Estonia had positive population change in July and August 2006. This year the population change of Estonia became positive already in June. If the positive trend continues, that is growing birth-rate and sustained positive immigration, then in about one or two years Estonia will have annual growth. ;)

Main Social and Economic Indicators of Estonia, July 2007:
http://www.stat.ee/files/evaljaanded/2007/pohinaitajad-200707.pdf
Actually it's said that Estonia won't have a stabile positive natural birth rate before 2040-2050, because the number of children per woman is at the moment around 1,5, but it has to be 2,1. Simple math tells you, why.
 

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Actually it's said that Estonia won't have a stabile positive natural birth rate before 2040-2050, because the number of children per woman is at the moment around 1,5, but it has to be 2,1. Simple math tells you, why.
hmh well yeah Stable is hard to reach..
 

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Nihongo Luvr
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Actually it's said that Estonia won't have a stabile positive natural birth rate before 2040-2050, because the number of children per woman is at the moment around 1,5, but it has to be 2,1. Simple math tells you, why.
Sub-replacement level TFR does not necessarily imply decline, otherwise Finland - and just about every European country - would have a declining population. Population change depends also on age structure of the country, which in Estonia's case is not all that bad, as you guys had a comparetively high TFR still in late 80s. Secondly increased life span plays a role as well, Japan being a case in point. Thirdly, TFR is a bit misleading term, anyway and causes people to perceive the situation as quite a bit worse than it actually is. In terms of crude birthrate, Estonia is now on-par with Finland and the Netherlands, for instance, and only slightly below Sweden and Denmark, and improving at a pretty remarkable rate.
 
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