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China's Ghost Cities

92416 Views 366 Replies 87 Participants Last post by  Svartmetall
China's Ghost Cities




The largest uninhabited cities are in China, these are not cities that have been abandoned but cities that have never been occupied in the first place because people cannot affort to live in them, I am fascinated by these places even if they are an ominous warning sign to the Chinese economy.


Here is a video about them, there are empty cities built for millions of people.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pngdQo205fM

Pics:











http://www.odditycentral.com/pics/ordos-chinas-modern-ghost-town.html

Pretty crazy
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empty high rises

So China do not practice BTO (Build to Order)?
They will be occupied in the future viva China.
So China do not practice BTO (Build to Order)?
They are built to speculation :)
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They will be occupied in the future viva China.
by who? people who can't afford them or people who can't afford them?
by who? people who can't afford them or people who can't afford them?
By speculators :lol:
In Metro Manila, all establishments are build-to-order and that's the advantage for our capitalists but sometimes (or most of the time?) problems for consumer. Complains are mostly related to delay of construction due to the fact that not 100% of the units are yet to be solved/reserved.
Incredible, looks straight out of an apocalypse movie.
Lol, only stupid people would believe China is not BTO in terms of property market. The real estate growth in China is just much larger than any other country in terms of scale. These properties are mostly sold out, to the investors. Ordinary people are trying hard to buy them, but it took them maybe 20 years to pay off the mortgage, and the prices drops slowly since the government implemented policies.
And China will not fall, if China galls, USA and EU and the rest of the world will fall too, these countries will help China, if China are really in that kind of trouble.
Lol, only stupid people would believe China is not BTO in terms of property market. The real estate growth in China is just much larger than any other country in terms of scale. These properties are mostly sold out, to the investors. Ordinary people are trying hard to buy them, but it took them maybe 20 years to pay off the mortgage, and the prices drops slowly since the government implemented policies.
And China will not fall, if China galls, USA and EU and the rest of the world will fall too, these countries will help China, if China are really in that kind of trouble.

Did you even watch the video? Look, I love China as a country, I'm fascinated by it, but building houses that people cannot affort and tearing down the ones they can is just plain not smart. I'm glad the country is building supertalls and experiencing economic flourish, but you have to be realistic as to the kind of consequences that can have in the future, people need money to live in those places and the vast majority of Chinese don't have it yet, and won't for a while, if ever.

China is on the rise, but like all other countries on the rise, it will not last forever and the growth rate will slow down, and when it does, and you have 64 million empty apartments and (some) unoccupied supertalls there is going to be economic turmoil.

I just fear, for China's sake, that the same thing will happen there, as in Dubai, or maybe much worse.
^^

You are living on a different planet, read this article from the NYTimes, I just posted some snippets but read the full thing. This is the definition of a bubble.

Edit: That was meant for Kenwen not you Jay. China can not physically support this amount of growth. It's very little actual economic growth, and all government funded.

"... In the last few years, cities’ efforts have helped government infrastructure and real estate spending surpass foreign trade as the biggest contributor to China’s growth.

...spending on so-called fixed-asset investment — a crucial measure of building that is heavily weighted toward government and real estate projects — is now equal to nearly 70 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. It is a ratio that no other large nation has approached in modern times.

Even Japan, at the peak of its building boom in the 1980s, reached only about 35 percent, and the figure has hovered around 20 percent for decades in the United States..."



Building Boom in China Stirs Fears of Debt Overload

By DAVID BARBOZA
Published: July 6, 2011

"...But there are growing signs that China’s long-running economic boom could be undermined by these building binges, which are financed through heavy borrowing by local governments and clever accounting that masks the true size of the debt.

The danger, experts say, is that China’s municipal governments could already be sitting on huge mountains of hidden debt — a lurking liability that threatens to stunt the nation’s economic growth for years or even decades to come. Just last week China’s national auditor, who reports to the cabinet, warned of the perils of local government borrowing. And on Tuesday the Beijing office of Moody’s Investors Service issued a report saying the national auditor might have understated Chinese banks’ actual risks from loans to local governments...

...In the case of Wuhan, a close look at its finances reveals that the city has borrowed tens of billions of dollars from state-run banks. But the loans seldom go directly to the local government. Instead, the borrowing is done by special investment corporations set up by the city — business entities whose debt shows up nowhere on Wuhan’s official financial balance sheet.

Adding to the risk, the collateral for many loans is local land valued at lofty prices that could collapse if China’s real estate bubble burst. Wuhan’s land prices have tripled in the last decade...

... A recent report by the investment bank UBS predicted that local government investment corporations could generate up to $460 billion in loan defaults over the next few years. As a percentage of China’s G.D.P., that would be far bigger than the $700 billion troubled-asset bailout program in the United States.

... This year, relying largely on bank loans, Wuhan plans to spend about $22 billion on infrastructure projects, an amount five times as large as the city’s tax revenue last year. And aspirations notwithstanding, Wuhan is still relatively poor. Residents here earn about $3,000 a year...

...In a report this year, the investment bank Credit Suisse identified Wuhan as one of China’s “top 10 cities to avoid,” saying its housing stock was so huge that it would take eight years to sell the residences already completed — never mind the hundreds of thousands now under construction."
That is what i'm talking about.
Lol, only stupid people would believe China is not BTO in terms of property market. The real estate growth in China is just much larger than any other country in terms of scale. These properties are mostly sold out, to the investors. Ordinary people are trying hard to buy them, but it took them maybe 20 years to pay off the mortgage, and the prices drops slowly since the government implemented policies.
And China will not fall, if China galls, USA and EU and the rest of the world will fall too, these countries will help China, if China are really in that kind of trouble.
Only stupid people would believe an economic model built around binging on fixed-asset investments is a sustainable model to run a large complex economy on in the long run. If you truly believe China can continue to do what they are doing to infinity and beyond, you are delusional, end of story.

And if China galls? Yeah it'll be felt around the world, but the universe as we know it won't end. If we can live through the 2008 meltdown (which I remind you is when the US, a much larger and more influential economy than China's, croaked), we can live through China having a bit of a stumble and fall.
Yea it's mindboggling how people can think that empty cities and 100+ supertalls won't have dire future consequences, even in a wealthy country, let a lone a developing one.







There is a difference between buildings being owned by someone other than the developer and being inhabited. I think there is a massive glut of overpriced properties that, for now, a are changing hands from investor to investor, but no one can either sell them at a profit to dwellers or rent them at justifiable rates.

Of course they could slash price to get people living there, but that would trigger massive price drops of all units in the same area, and the master developers, usually state-backed, surely want to avoid that.
When I was in Huzhou, I also saw a lot of highrises under construction but surprisingly these developments are too far from the city center, too far from jobs. Even though these are 100% sold, I believe some of them were just bought for investment purpose thinking that they could sell them in an appreciated price overtime. But prices going down.
Curse is not a good way, if you are so sure China's "very little actual economic growth" all government funded and will crash soon, just actively short related assets, you could make a fortune in years.

Well, I am doing the opposite, trying hard to buy an apartment in Beijing recently, I think it's a low risk investment, but seems impossible now, authorities has heavily restricted house buying since last year, they just simply say you cant buy it, really annoying.
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