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Climate Change: Could This Affect Leeds' Future?

3236 Views 64 Replies 16 Participants Last post by  Leeds No.1
If summer rainfall falls by 20% in our region by 2050, this could fuel growth in the 'alfresco' culture that Leeds has gained over previous years.

Leeds is already lucky to have generally better weather than most other UK cities, and a warmer/drier future for Leeds could help it to become a more attractive place by 2050.

What do people think?

The BBC today reports the following:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8107014.stm

UK 'must plan' for warmer future
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News

Flooded town
Some regions of the UK are likely to see more floods, especially in winter

The UK needs to plan now for a future that will be hotter and bring greater extremes of flood and drought, says Environment Secretary Hilary Benn.

Launching the UK Climate Projections 2009 report (UKCP09), Mr Benn told MPs that the UK climate will change even with a global deal on emissions.

By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now, he said.

Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.

Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside by the middle of the century.

These projections show us the future we need to avoid, and the future we need to plan for.

Scotland and the north-west of England could see winter rainfall increase by a similar amount.

The government hopes UKCP09 will allow citizens, local authorities and businesses to plan for future decades.

It uses computer models of the world's climate to make projections of parameters such as temperature, rainfall and wind.

"Climate change is going to transform the way we live," said Mr Benn.

"These projections show us the future we need to avoid, and the future we need to plan for."

UK CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

Change in Summer Mean Temperature
By the 2080s, average summer temperatures could be up to six degrees warmer in parts of southern England

Changes in Summer Mean Rainfall
Average summer rainfall could decrease by 22% in the already water-stressed southern England

Changes in Winter Mean Rainfall
An increase of 16% in winter rainfall in the North West, increasing the amount of rain on the wettest days leading to higher flood risk

An effective global deal at December's UN climate talks in Copenhagen could keep the summer temperature rise in southern England to about 2C, the projections suggest.

But if greenhouse gas emissions rise quickly, that figure could be as high as 12C, Mr Benn said.

The UK Met Office, which led the scientific analysis, says UKCP09 is the "most comprehensive set of probabilistic climate projections at the regional scale compiled anywhere in the world".

Scientists collated data from 400 variations of the climate computer model developed by the Hadley Centre, part of the Met Office.

Each variant has been checked to see how well it predicted the climate of past decades; and the numbers have been compared with projections of other computer models.

This allowed scientists to assign probabilities to various forecasts.

Using a range of online tools including a "weather generator", people will be able to enter their postcodes and see projections of how conditions are likely to change within 25 sq km grid squares at different points in the future.

But some climate scientists have reservations about trying to project the future on such a detailed scale.

"If your decisions depend on what's happening at these very fine scales of 25 km or even 5 km resolution then you probably shouldn't be making irreversible investment decisions now," commented Myles Allen of Oxford University, one of the UK's leading climate modellers.

But the idea of the impact assessment has been well received by environment groups.

"It's great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK," said Keith Allott, head of climate change at WWF-UK.

"But the picture it paints is an alarming one,"

"This research confirms that not only is climate change already having a serious impact in Britain, but that we are also locked into further impacts, and that these impacts will get much worse unless we act now to tackle the problem."

Campaigners say that the UK impacts are likely to be minor compared to other parts of the world.

Last month a report from the Global Humanitarian Forum, the think tank chaired by former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, said the UK was among the 12 countries likely to be least affected by climate change.

"Life in parts of the UK will get harder, but it will get a great deal harder in countries already suffering the impact of climate change," said Alison Doig, senior climate policy expert with Christian Aid.

"Their plight will worsen dramatically unless the international community wakes up to the fact that a full-blown emergency is looming."

On Friday, the Environment Agency will release an assessment of how the changing climate will affect the risk of impacts such as flooding in England and Wales.

Commenting on the UKCP09 projections, Environment Agency chairman Chris Smith said:

"These new projections remind us starkly of the choices we face in ensuring a sustainable future for our fragile planet.

"A failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a battle for survival for mankind and many other species across the globe by the end of this century; and we will feel the effects here in the UK too."

The agency is likely to recommend measures that would protect areas of the UK, and sectors of the economy, against climate impacts such as flooding.
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Perhaps it will fuel Leeds' 'al fresco culture', though I'm not convinced that a few more pavement cafes in Leeds quite outweighs the many negative predicted effects of climate change.
That was just one example- we might see more attention to parks and open spaces from the council. There are some vineyards in England, but I believe they are all in the south. Perhaps the countryside around Leeds could be characterised by them in the future.

On the other hand, what negatives could this dramatic prediction have on Leeds if it comes true? There were two fires caused by the recent heat on Leeds commuter lines which disrupted rail services. It might be necessary to relay tracks using concrete sleepers if this danger increases.
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But as you know well, it's not just negative effects that actually take place in Leeds itself we have to worry about; Leeds does not exist in isolation from the rest of the world. The disasters that will occur elsewhere will all have impacts.
It's still likely to mean more extreme flooding from rainfall upstream.
Perhaps it will fuel Leeds' 'al fresco culture', though I'm not convinced that a few more pavement cafes in Leeds quite outweighs the many negative predicted effects of climate change.
:lol: Quoted For Truth.
There are some vineyards in England, but I believe they are all in the south. Perhaps the countryside around Leeds could be characterised by them in the future.
There is one near Woodlesford - James May and Oz Clarke went there in the first episode of their Oz and James Drink to Britain programme.
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Leeds is already lucky to have generally better weather than most other UK cities, and a warmer/drier future for Leeds could help it to become a more attractive place by 2050.
Don't agree with you. Just look at the table of 92 UK places printed daily on the back page of the Telegraph. Leeds, is usually in the bottom half dozen or so (almost invariably with Huddersfield) and often with lower temperatures than most places in Scotland! When I was at school in Leeds, many moons ago, we were taught that the prevailing wind here was from the south west. In recent years however, it is more likely to have come from the north east/east - straight from the direction of the cold and damp North Sea. To make matters far worse Manchester is almost always a couple of degrees centigrade higher than Leeds in said table!
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Further to my last and the table in the Daily Telegraph, the pattern continues and I note today that Aviemore is bottom followed by Fort William,Brecon, Windermere and then Leeds with 14 max and 9 min bracketed with Huddersfield, Shetland, Stornoway and Tiree. Even Bradford is better (protected by hills?) at 16 max 9 min. (Don't ask about Manchester - 18 max 7 min!)
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Perhaps the higher temperature in Manchester (which lets be honest, isn't that much higher), is down to it being surrounded by endless suburban sprawl. Temperature is one issue though, rainfall is what they're predicting could fall by 20%, and we know that Leeds already has a lower rainfall than average.
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Perhaps the higher temperature in Manchester (which lets be honest, isn't that much higher), is down to it being surrounded by endless suburban sprawl. Temperature is one issue though, rainfall is what they're predicting could fall by 20%, and we know that Leeds already has a lower rainfall than average.
Full marks, No.1, for trying your best to stand up for Leeds's weather. In the figures I gave for yesterday Manchester's max was 4 degrees centigrade, or 7 degrees Fahrenheit, higher than Leeds. - not bad at all in spite of what you say. Not one major UK city had temperatures as low as Leeds and this is no rare occurrence. (it is repeated in today's paper for yesterday) The Daily Telegraph, at least, gives the lie to the statement in #1 (Leeds is already lucky to have generally better weather than most other UK cities).

As for rain, Leeds is usually drier than the west side of the Pennines but generally the total amount of rain listed doesn't tell us for how long it rains and my general impression (subjective only) is that the easterly direction of the wind off the North Sea, that I mentioned, brings along with it a lot of persistent (and cold) drizzle.
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Full marks, No.1, for trying your best to stand up for Leeds's weather. In the figures I gave for yesterday Manchester's max was 4 degrees centigrade, or 7 degrees Fahrenheit, higher than Leeds. - not bad at all in spite of what you say. Not one major UK city had temperatures as low as Leeds and this is no rare occurrence. (it is repeated in today's paper for yesterday) The Daily Telegraph, at least, gives the lie to the statement in #1 (Leeds is already lucky to have generally better weather than most other UK cities).

I wouldn't believe everything you read in the Torygraph. :lol:
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I wouldn't believe everything you read in the Torygraph. :lol:


It is very partisan, I agree, but do you REALLY think its bias extends to controlling the weather statistics it prints? :eek:hno:
Those figures are for one day. It is noticeably wetter west of the Pennines, and often colder- especially in the winter.
Also what's with all the Climate Change talk on these boards all of a sudden?? :dunno:

I don’t think people deny it is happening, it is to what extent human activity effects it. I’m not however stating that the anthropogenic impact is insignificant, just that the forces of nature such as shown in Milankovitch Theory (obliquity, eccentricity and precession) will happen whether we do anything or not. Climate change is effected my man, but the natural forces are so huge.

Climate change is one of these really debatable and interesting areas. I’ve got a degree in Environmental Management so consider myself to have more than the basic knowledge of this area, and I feel that as a single issue, it really is not that much of an issue - not as much as people make out anyway.

People who mention it are often just trying to get votes or trying to sell their products. Organisations like Greenpeace and FotE do nothing more than disrupt those in power from making real changes (e.g Stockholm conference). They don’t have that much of an education in the issues surrounding the subject they represent (I can remember in a talk once with a member of FotE, when my lecture class shot him down in flames). There is a huge difference between the ideas of Environmentalists and Environmental Scientists, yet they are often put in the same boat. I just hate how many people have this holier that thou attitude to things environmental, mainly just because it’s seen as the thing to do and not because they really want to make a difference. I’m a Tory voter, but I think Cameron’s is only after the ‘green’ vote, and I’m not sure he cares that much (although I’m sure Tories are willing to spend more on new infrastructure that the labour lot). Same with nuclear power – I think we will need it for some time until we can produce enough from renewable sources – I think it is something like by 2025 if we didn’t at least replace our existing nuclear power stations we would have a 25% deficit in power, based on existing and proposed renewable power generation.

Too much emphasis is placed on a ‘carbon free’ society, yet it is only a small problem. Most people don't care about the environmental implications of a carbon neutral world - just saving money!! As I’ve said anthropogenic climate change, although not insignificant, it is dwarfed by the natural climate change events that can also occur such as obliquity. It is a natural cycle and however much we can try, it will change. We can’t stop that. We should be looking at clean industries but to reduce water pollution and have cleaner air. We need to develop fuel cell cars, not really because the environment, but because we will run out of oil. Methane and water vapour is vastly more significant to anthropogenic climate change than carbon dioxide is. In fact, it is correct that should be heading into a cold spot - which is interesting itself as what if we stop all particulates from entering the atmosphere? Carbon, methane and water vapour emissions are reducing the impact of natural climate change. Is it a case of regulating the emissions to a sustainable state to prevent us from falling temperatures? Basically enforced, regulated anthropogenic climate change. It’s very interesting area.

What about protecting the endangered, deforestation, desertification (due to overgrazing and deforestation especially in sub-Saharan Africa), better management and conservation of land and the redistribution of food – let us (temperate regions) produce it for those in more extreme climates (instead of them using monoculture and slash and burn techniques – EU CAP means we vastly overproduce and this just gets wasted) It is these issues that need to be looked at more (and would reduce carbon emissions).

Although the Malthusian theory doesn’t take our level of technology into account, the underlying principle of the theory is correct, even more so when you consider that we are (rightfully I may add) trying to eradicate all disease and increase life expectancy and improve infant mortality rates. Do we consider land reclamation and forget the environmental issues related to that?? As I've said, if anything we should be looking at these issues, and the climate issue will also be resolved as much as it can.

My view was that instead of making it a 'carbon/global warming agenda', we should look at the wider issues in the globe, of which most of the solutions will have positive impacts on the climate.

Those figures are for one day. It is noticeably wetter west of the Pennines, and often colder- especially in the winter.
Yes, as a rule of thumb it should be generally wetter on the wrong side of the Pennines, but by similar rules it should be colder on our side of the Pennines, due to both the North Atlantic drift and Continentality - the lower specific heat capacity of land (compared to water) means it will experience more variation. Urban heat island effects due to greater urban sprawl, my have an impact as well. :)
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In many instances, data for leeds weather is from its weather station at the airport, where it is colder and wetter and not within the micro-climate or the urban area. That said.. the monthly averages for Leeds show's warmer weather than manchester.. and similar rainfall with some months slightly more and some months slightly less. This is bizzare, as im sure ive seen data before showing Manchester's averages show as being wetter
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In many instances, data for leeds weather is from its weather station at the airport, where it is colder and wetter and not within the micro-climate or the urban area. That said.. the monthly averages for Leeds show's warmer weather than manchester.. and similar rainfall with some months slightly more and some months slightly less. This is bizzare, as im sure ive seen data before showing Manchester's averages show as being wetter
You are absolutely right ; where the data are taken from is crucial. The figures I have quoted are from the daily table of 92 places in the UK in the Daily Telegraph but there is no indication that the Leeds figures are taken from the airport which would of course differ considerably from any taken in the city centre or even, say, Headingley. As I have said, Leeds is nearly always in the bottom dozen or so. Today's was somewhat of an exception as there were 16 below it !
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You are absolutely right ; where the data are taken from is crucial. The figures I have quoted are from the daily table of 92 places in the UK in the Daily Telegraph but there is no indication that the Leeds figures are taken from the airport which would of course differ considerably from any taken in the city centre or even, say, Headingley. As I have said, Leeds is nearly always in the bottom dozen or so. Today's was somewhat of an exception as there were 16 below it !
The BBC 'Latest Observations' for Leeds (and I think York) is taken from Church Fenton.
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