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Discussion Starter #1
Time to stop using public transport?
What happens when lots of people have it at work?
Is there much we can actually do in the long run?
 

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Guess on this forum, I'd be more interested in how buildings can help. I was told a story of a hospital turning a floor into a quarantine floor - but the issue was it was connected to a building-wide HVAC so no chance of stopping the virus spreading to non-quarantine floors.
 

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Not an awful lot of action on the London threads of late, can't be down to CV...can it?
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Maybe! But surely there should be more people at home to post? Less picture taking though of course.
 

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I just wonder how many building sites will close down when we reach the 'peak'... and how long for. Its going to happen for sure.
 

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I just wonder how many building sites will close down when we reach the 'peak'... and how long for. Its going to happen for sure.
Will external site visits are already being reduced, as contracts have been signed for instance in regards to leasing construction equipment and handover dates from contractor to developer, it's probably not as easy as putting down tools until the whole thing blows over.
 

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[QUcOTE=geogregor;167292788]It is such a relieve that Brexit disappeared from the media and wider public consciousness...

If only it was for a better reason...[/QUOTE]

The world it seems has gone mad. Cant believe what we are witnessing. This event is bringing out the best and the worst in the human race.
 

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Last night I came back from Poland, just in time as Poland is shutting its borders and suspending flights.

I went to larger supermarket do a bit of shopping for my elderly parents.

A few shots, first the pasta section:

IMG_20200312_164824864_HDR
by Geogregor*, on Flickr


IMG_20200312_164809833_HDR
by Geogregor*, on Flickr

Luckilly, this being Poland, we won't run out of disinfectant :troll:


IMG_20200312_172637917_HDR
by Geogregor*, on Flickr


IMG_20200312_172754631_HDR
by Geogregor*, on Flickr


IMG_20200312_172818206_HDR
by Geogregor*, on Flickr


IMG_20200312_172851556_HDR
by Geogregor*, on Flickr

It is important to get priorities of supply chain right :lol:
 

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How's things in Poland ?
Basically state of lock down, similar to Italy or Spain. You can only go out to work or buy basic supplies. Only supermarkets and pharmacies are open.

Polish authorities got very aggressive very quickly, a few days after the first cases. I managed to fly out on Friday, on midnight from Saturday to Sunday flights got suspended and borders closed.

So far Poland has 205 cases an 5 deaths. Considering the size of the population it is not bad result.

My flight was only around 25% full. There was actually still flight to Bologna from my local airport, I saw maybe a two dozens of passengers waiting, mostly looking like Italians heading back home.

Interesting times. I have ageing parents with many medical conditions. And no clue when I'm going to see them again. Or even how to get home if there is emergency.
 

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Must be a worry for you, especially if its difficult back if you need to. Hope they will be ok. So sorry mate. who would have thought this just two months ago...
 

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Must be a worry for you, especially if its difficult back if you need to. Hope they will be ok. So sorry mate. who would have thought this just two months ago...
Yeah, crazy times.

The big question is how long will it last. I'm fine with not being able to go home for a few weeks or even months (excluding emergency, which is a problem).

But what if restrictions last longer? At the moment nobody seems to have any exit strategy. Let say the cases go down by summer, is there plan to reopen economy, including, crucial for my trips home, the aviation industry (which might be in completely different shape than we were used to in the last few years or even decades)? Will we end up with a few nationalized airlines?

Then what if we have secondary spike due to virus carriers who didn't have symptoms? Another closure of world economy?
 

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I believe the current modelling suggests that the (first) peak will be in the summer, no? Even in a best case scenario we seem to be looking at tens of thousands of deaths and a recession looming. London is probably the last place in the country I would want to be right now.
 

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I believe the current modelling suggests that the (first) peak will be in the summer, no? Even in a best case scenario we seem to be looking at tens of thousands of deaths and a recession looming. London is probably the last place in the country I would want to be right now.

Imperial College paper is here:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Part of summary:

The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission
will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.
The whole thing might last longer than we think. Even if some countries temporarily relax restrictions internally I don't believe international travel as we know it will be possible any time soon.

As for location, London is not worse than any other large urban center. What happens in London will happen in Manchester or Glasgow or Bristol, just with slight delay. Unless you live in some remote cottage in the Scottish Highlands it doesn't make much difference where you are.
 

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It was becoming increasingly inevitable in the last few days.
It's looked inevitable for some weeks to be honest. It would be madness to keep 25,000 civil servants working on Brexit when there needs to be huge planning for the impact of the virus. And companies are going to be struggling to stay afloat - they don't have the capacity to also plan for whatever new trading arrangements may eventually be agreed whilst they're dealing with what may turn out to be an economic shock worse than the financial crisis.
 
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