[EnolaGray]

What’s the thoughts here, some media outlets are doing well to dramatise the spread, 4 cases now confirmed in Australia, a lot of ‘breaking news’ updates with every new confirmed case.

 

[EnolaGray]

Yeah bit more nasty then the usual seasonal flu, but i think there’s a little bit of hysteria about it at the moment.. My partner works at a school with Chinese students from Wuhan province, and teachers and parents have sending emails, some anonymously expressing concern and naming students who have travelled to that province in recent months.

 

[EnolaGray]

Hysteria, fear mongering and dramatising leads to people and groups being unfairly targeted though, the fact an adult created a false email account to email about someone else’s child at the school just goes to show how a lack of information can raise issues.

 

[EnolaGray]

Yeah, same old story. An excuse to bring out those things festering below the surface.

What do you mean by this comment

 

[EnolaGray]

I don't think we're taking this seriously enough. Chief medical officer saying that it's okay for children that have been in China in the last two weeks to go to school. Saying there is no reason for healthy children not to go. It goes against the general understanding that the virus is transmissible during incubation when no symptoms are showing. It's either extremely blasé or they don't hold any hopes for it being containable.

The secondary infections are just becoming apparent in other countries now.

depends which state...

In NSW school kids have been told to stay home for 14 days

 

[EnolaGray]

I find it difficult to get my head around the fact that our government is proposing to charge families $1,000 per child to evacuate 140 Australian children stuck in Wuhan to Christmas Island where they will be quarantined for two week

It's $1,000 per person to fly them from a region where commercial airlines are no longer flying, and in a logistical exercise which will require bespoke quarantine requirements and practices implemented just for them, its the equivalent of what an air-fare would have cost pre health emergency. Seems like a pretty reasonable and fair practice, its optional and some families have declined to fly anyway.

Regardless of the reasons of why it was built and what its purpose is, Christmas Island detention centre offers the necessary facilities and capacity to process this type of thing.

 

[EnolaGray]

Well I succumbed and did a shop today, bought some longer life products.. usually me and my partner will do a few shops a week rather then one big one on the weekend, but we thought just in case they decide to close some shops or we have to go into quarantine we wanted stock up a bit on food stuff so we wouldn’t have to go out, or order in for 10-14 days.

I’m not proud of it, however increasingly i think it’s a potential outcome, be it we, or the general neighbourhood faces a outbreak and have to do some form of isolation measures. Worse case, we won’t have to shop for a few weeks once the hysteria has died down.

 

[EnolaGray]

You cant close schools without parents taking the day off as well, it’s not like typical school holidays when you can send the kids on school camps, day care or their grandparents house. They would have to stay at home which places enormous pressure on parents to stay home as well.

At the point schools close down, the whole country might as well go through a quarantine lock-down anyway...

 

[EnolaGray]

True, but there are obviously no fatalities on an significant scale, that would have leaked.

Would it have.....

 

[EnolaGray]

Maybe not officially, but effectively yes, given the bailouts, tax breaks and whatnot, all of which will need to happen as Qantas is a critical service that many people rely on around this country.

Tempted to buy stocks right now, knowing that the government won't let them fail, which means they'll most likely rebound very strongly once this is over.

I wouldn't be banking on the stock rebounding depending on how the government intervention works, if it comes through a form i nationalisation then you're stock will face a dilution, and long recovery as you now have a major shareholder not exactly driven by profits, rather delivering an essential service to the people.

I think we may be approaching a time of nationalisation given the extreme nature of the impact.

 

[EnolaGray]

I'm all for culling the feral horses..........we should simply do it as they are making a mess of our alpine environment. The same goes for dear, which are out of control in Victoria and camels, wild boar etc in other parts of the country

Christ it's easier said then done.. You could also allow people to hunt as well, but then there's issues with permits and licenses. Problem is, politicians are now risk adverse and these could be seen a confrontational subjects that aren't worth the risk

 

[EnolaGray]

The point of that conversation was, that we are not in a position to criticise China. It's all hard. And we barely try here. All the effort is put into making it look like something is being done, not actually doing it. The legacy of an aspirational culture that is too removed from the onground reality. If anything positive comes out of this, I hope it is a reality check.

i commented on hunting licenses for deer, what the **** does that have to do with China

 

[EnolaGray]

I think we have grounds to criticise China, in particular the government on the basis that the virus started there and the fact that they see eating such obviously dangerous wildlife (bats in particular being renounce disease carriers), as a delicacy. Its a disgrace frankly. The list of practices that much of the world would see as abhorrent goes on and on and yet the Chinese communist party doesn't give a ****. Yes, they appear to have been ruthlessly efficient in shutting down the virus in their own country, however they are causing economic and social armageddon for the rest of the world. I hope this whole mess results in the downfall of their government......don't be surprised if the US decides to completely ban all trade with China after this.........

I literally just commented on deer licenses in Australia :nuts:

 

[EnolaGray]

Economics effect health too and the reality is most people will be effected economically than virally.

No shit mate, and those economic impacts will be magnified if the trend follows what has happened in Italy and the health system is overwhelmed with critical patients.

 

[EnolaGray]

Everyone keeps looking to Italy as if it’s inevitable it’s going to happen here regardless of the fact many countries are relatively unaffected including us. Economic Armageddon for no reason.

theres a pretty clear and obvious reason

and if people stopped been so blasé about the risk of spreading the virus and acknowledge the real threat it posed then Australian might be able to mitigate the economic impact, as long as we have people like you acting those its all for "no reason" then its going to continue to spread like wildfire because you dont appreciate the gravity of it all.

 

[EnolaGray]

What’s dangerous is what we are doing to our economy and now all those poor places that have to close down just announced tonight. This is a major WTF. If unemployment doesn’t hit 20% I’ll be very surprised. But at least we will save less than 1% of less than 1%. This is ****ed. Words cannot describe how completely ****ed this is.

nah, opinions like this are dangerous..

until Australians stop acting like dickheads and ignoring the threat, then the economic impact is only going to continue to grow..

 

[EnolaGray]

Children's hospitals in NSW have raised their disaster level so that they are now expected to receive patients up to 45 years old such is the rise in cases and risk. This is pretty significant, nurses and doctors specialise in areas and age bracket, you have nurses/doctors who are specialists in child care and will soon be expected to identify and treat illnesses/injuries which is unique to the older age bracket and which they have no real experience with. When we talk about overwhelming the health system, this is a taste of what is to come if they dont flatten the curve.

 

[EnolaGray]

Yep, this is the issue. Totally and utterly get the message out there to isolate the vulnerable and elderly. This goes to every level. But isolating the rest? Be reasonable. The data coming in shows absolutely that the vast majority of us that get this? We will be just fine. And yes, people fall between those cracks and someone will be reported as "young, no preconditions and died". We will never know the intricacies of each and every case - you can only see the bigger stats. That tells me we are panicking and assuming we are ALL at risk equally because we are all carriers that will just go up to the vulnerable and elderly and hug them. No we won't. We are going to have bigger problems with all these poor souls loosing their business. I'm sorry, the economics medicine of this is not a cold hearted view of just letting the elderly die. It is quite the opposite. If the curve for the 97% that get it is large? It's not the point. It's the curve of fatalities that matter. So when the rabid press take Trump out of context about rebooting the economy? Yeah well, **** them because the guy, though hardly the most articulate tool in the shed, has a point, when seen in context and with the facts.

This is utter nonsense.

Your'e comments that the vast majority of us "will be just fine" goes against data been produced, in the US 38% of ICU admissions are 54 or younger.

It's a ridiculous notion to assume that we can continue to function as a society and an economy whilst coronavirus victims are overwhelming the health system. That is currently the biggest problem which exists, the health system is a pillar of our society and our economy and without controlling the outbreak of coronavirus it will be overwhelmed, and it will collapse. To throw back to your comments above that "everyone will be just fine", once the health system is overwhelmed, all non-essential server and non-critical treatments will be switched off. Their will be a dilution of expertise as the medical system attempts to expand capacity, and ultimately, a degradation in the quality of service delivered. There are only so many nurses and doctors, and once they are sucked into helping treat Coronavirus victims, they are no longer doing their previous job effectively.

Comments like " the economics medicine of this is not a cold hearted view of just letting the elderly die" is so wilfully negligently and unaware its ridiculous, the "elderly" won't just die quietly in their homes, they will swamp the health system. The economic impacts of the health system collapsing are catastrophic for the Australian economy, moreso then what is been experienced now.

You're 'facts', aren't facts at all.

 

[EnolaGray]

I get that but I truly believe, when this is over, there is going to be a lot of review and when the dust settles? They will realise the over reaction to the lockdown was not great. Not all epidemiologists are singing the same tune:

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onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Again, the current stats are clearly showing the vast majority are not at risk and that the disparity is that those at risk, are VERY much at risk. Of course this line is not absolute but with sound judgment on preconditions and such? Strong enforcement of isolation for the vulnerable. I'm sorry - it is true; you don't want the cure being worse than the actual virus. Yes, it's a balancing game but cool heads need to prevail.

Maybe i missed it, but nowhere in that article does it state that the "vast majority of us will be fine", nor does it state "vast majority are not at risk".

The author makes the assumption that the health care system is unaffected, every statistic referencing fatality rates in that article is with the assumption that the health care system is operating at efficiency, which with current growth rates, it will no longer be in just 2 weeks. When you're triaging ICU patients because of capacity constraints, then the the fatality rate will increase significantly. This is what they're trying to avoid.

Do you actually realise how much of the Australian Labour Force sit in this 'elderly' or 'vulnerable' age bracket, and if they're left to die the gravity of the lasting effects on the Australian will be far more significant than the current shock. Do you actually understand that over 3.7million, or over 27% of Australians Labour Force is made up of those who are considered to be in the vulnerable age bracket 50+ years old.

 

[EnolaGray]

It's not nonsense. Those figures in the US are not even verified. Is your source Vox perchance? The data clearly shows from Italy and China (if you can believe them) that the fatality rate of the demographic outside the elderly and preconditioned vulnerable, is very very low.

I'm NOT saying we can just go our merry way and just continue the function of our society. Do not put words in my mouth. I am talking about cool headed bi-partisan factual based responses. Of course we should restrict crowd sizes. Of course we should restrict borders. Of course we should enforce isolation for the vulnerable and obvious situations (like ships wanting to dock).

This is what happens when you are hammered 24/7 with the massive misinformation from the irresponsible mainstream media. The fucken MSM running this show like it's the Gulf War all over again. They are the one's stopping the rational conversations about this. I don't apologise that I have a different view to you. The thing with my view? If y I see empirical evidence that all these demographics are truly more at risk. I'll change my tune here and now.

Show me where your verified sources of information are then, you're making claims stating that "the vast majority of us will be just fine" and that the "vast majority are not at risk" but I've seen no verified figures which actually support this narrative that you're pushing. Nor have i seen any empirical evidence to suggest that isolating just the vulnerable in their homes will serve to stop the spread of the virus or mitigate the looming shortage medical resources to treat the issue, nor have i seen any evidence that suggests doing so would allow the economy to carry on its merry way now that its missing over a quarter of its workforce.

I too will change my view if there is empirical evidence supporting the narrative you are pushing, i have no issues with that, but right now i'm not seeing it and i actually see far greater risk too society and the economy long term by attempting what you are suggesting, if the argument is wrong.