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Understand Andy and when at the early stages of this, hindsight is a wonderful thing. But conflating what is the best action now to what has happened there. Assume what I am saying was applied to Spain, Italy and the USA. Assume they radically isolated the demographic we now know are most vulnerable? Weather they did a complete lockdown earlier or a complete lockdown of just the high risk earlier. The outcome would have been the same. I linked to some info on Italy and it clearly shows the problem there was very fast and extreme exposure to their elderly. Italy happens to have extreme close economic links with China and people argue that Italy closed travel with China quite early. China probably knew well before hand the issues and tried to self contain, coverup, whatever.

But again, Italy:

“The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older - the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. “So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality.”

A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old."

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
 

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Guac Bowl Merchant
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On a plus side, the last 2 days has seen lower growth across the country on the whole.

Up here in QLD for instance, 11% growth only in cases, zero cases in ICU, no verified community transmission.
 

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Environmental Busybody
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I agree, quarantine as best we can for those who are vulnerable, apply some restrictions to smoove the curve, full lockdown will hurt badly, economically and health-wise as well.

I'm overwhelmed at the moment dealing with businesses who are in real trouble. Just got off the phone to a client who owns a bus charter business, inconsolable, has been in business for couple of decades, has juts had to sack ALL of his staff because of these restrictions placed on his business.

I really don't think those who are public servants or those who may have solid job security realise what's in store for small business, an employee just loses his job, small business owners have ongoing overheads and liabilities, the uncertainty for them is huge.
The 'some' restrictions you're referring to won't smooth the curve, can't have it both ways.

I'm classed as a micro-business. I deliberately chose that because I don't want to be exposed to too much risk. My contracts were all cancelled on Tuesday, when the intra-state travel advisory came out. But, I've planned for these scenarios. I suppose that makes me a 'nervous nellie' generally, but one part of me is not that sympathetic to many of my colleagues out there, that don't manage their risk properly, because 'she'll be right, will never happen' attitude so prevalent in this country. It's such a strong cultural imbedded thing. Act like a dick, then cry like a baby the instant something challenging comes up. It does my head in. If you'd told those people to act more responsibly in the good times, they'd tell you to F.O. Then in the bad times expect everyone to come running to their aid. It's good you're all looking out for each other, because it's not other people's job to clean up after risk-takers.
 

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Discussion Starter #725
I get that but I truly believe, when this is over, there is going to be a lot of review and when the dust settles? They will realise the over reaction to the lockdown was not great. Not all epidemiologists are singing the same tune:


Again, the current stats are clearly showing the vast majority are not at risk and that the disparity is that those at risk, are VERY much at risk. Of course this line is not absolute but with sound judgment on preconditions and such? Strong enforcement of isolation for the vulnerable. I'm sorry - it is true; you don't want the cure being worse than the actual virus. Yes, it's a balancing game but cool heads need to prevail.
Maybe i missed it, but nowhere in that article does it state that the "vast majority of us will be fine", nor does it state "vast majority are not at risk".

The author makes the assumption that the health care system is unaffected, every statistic referencing fatality rates in that article is with the assumption that the health care system is operating at efficiency, which with current growth rates, it will no longer be in just 2 weeks. When you're triaging ICU patients because of capacity constraints, then the the fatality rate will increase significantly. This is what they're trying to avoid.

Do you actually realise how much of the Australian Labour Force sit in this 'elderly' or 'vulnerable' age bracket, and if they're left to die the gravity of the lasting effects on the Australian will be far more significant than the current shock. Do you actually understand that over 3.7million, or over 27% of Australians Labour Force is made up of those who are considered to be in the vulnerable age bracket 50+ years old.
 

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Discussion Starter #726
It's not nonsense. Those figures in the US are not even verified. Is your source Vox perchance? The data clearly shows from Italy and China (if you can believe them) that the fatality rate of the demographic outside the elderly and preconditioned vulnerable, is very very low.

I'm NOT saying we can just go our merry way and just continue the function of our society. Do not put words in my mouth. I am talking about cool headed bi-partisan factual based responses. Of course we should restrict crowd sizes. Of course we should restrict borders. Of course we should enforce isolation for the vulnerable and obvious situations (like ships wanting to dock).

This is what happens when you are hammered 24/7 with the massive misinformation from the irresponsible mainstream media. The fucken MSM running this show like it's the Gulf War all over again. They are the one's stopping the rational conversations about this. I don't apologise that I have a different view to you. The thing with my view? If y I see empirical evidence that all these demographics are truly more at risk. I'll change my tune here and now.
Show me where your verified sources of information are then, you're making claims stating that "the vast majority of us will be just fine" and that the "vast majority are not at risk" but I've seen no verified figures which actually support this narrative that you're pushing. Nor have i seen any empirical evidence to suggest that isolating just the vulnerable in their homes will serve to stop the spread of the virus or mitigate the looming shortage medical resources to treat the issue, nor have i seen any evidence that suggests doing so would allow the economy to carry on its merry way now that its missing over a quarter of its workforce.

I too will change my view if there is empirical evidence supporting the narrative you are pushing, i have no issues with that, but right now i'm not seeing it and i actually see far greater risk too society and the economy long term by attempting what you are suggesting, if the argument is wrong.
 

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I have no problem locking up the likes of Red Baron to keep him safe and if we had some proper enforced social distancing, coherent messaging , community adherence, individuals taking responsibility and discipline a lot of areas would be doing better and we would have health systems coping. Australia has been lucky time wise in allowing our health system to so far cope better and get ready for what is to come plus we are isolating our oldies, implementing harsher policies more and more quickly as they think is needed. Even doing all this our economy is stuffed and people suffering but hopefully in 6 months or so we will be over it. It was never going to be one or the other, health, society and economics are all entwined and dependent.
 

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Environmental Busybody
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Italy is repeatedly advising other countries to lock down right now, as they wish they'd done it earlier. But what would they know?
 

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Guac Bowl Merchant
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I'm classed as a micro-business. I deliberately chose that because I don't want to be exposed to too much risk. My contracts were all cancelled on Tuesday, when the intra-state travel advisory came out. But, I've planned for these scenarios. I suppose that makes me a 'nervous nellie' generally, but one part of me is not that sympathetic to many of my colleagues out there, that don't manage their risk properly, because 'she'll be right, will never happen' attitude so prevalent in this country.
That's fine for a micro-business Kelli, but a lot of SME's have huge outgoings inherent with their business model so if revenue gets suddenly cut to zero then they quickly eat through even reasonable reserves, risk insolvency and have to let people go.

When I say nervous nelly, I mean those not in the work office or in sheltered industries sitting at home screaming 'shut everything down' with no clue as the economic devastation it's actually causing. Yes, restrictions are necessary sometimes, even often now, but it needs to be measured and considered at each level, because it's all not without massive cost.
 

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Environmental Busybody
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I realise that, salaries etc would drain the bank fast. But, they've chosen that level of risk. They didn't need to. They wanted to, presumably going for the big reward. If you're going for the big reward, the big risk comes with the territory. I feel bad for everyone, but please do not make out like these people are more important than other people.
 

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I mean those not in the work office or in sheltered industries sitting at home screaming 'shut everything down' with no clue as the economic devastation it's actually causing. Yes, restrictions are necessary sometimes, even often now, but it needs to be measured and considered at each level, because it's all not without massive cost.
Or those calling to lock everything down can see the massive economic, health and social costs and believe it is the best approach to return us back to normality in the quickest manner.
 

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Destorying our history
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People like Ryan and Trump still seem to be still trying to play the ideology and troll game instead of focusing on the health crisis. Seven passengers on the Artania cruise ship, currently moored off the coast of Fremantle in Western Australia, have now tested positive for COVID-19. The Premier wants to work out a way to refuel the Artania and called on the Commonwealth to use its assets, including the Australian Navy, to assist. The other ship soon to be moored of Freo the Vasco da Gama will be allowed to dock possibly on Friday but only the Australian passengers will be allowed to disembark immediately. Then the plan is to ferry them to Rottnest Island where they will self isolate for 14 days. International passengers aboard the Vasco da Gama will only be allowed to disembark if they are going straight to an airport to fly home, or they require urgent medical attention
Well I guess all the suicides and deep depression won’t swamp the hospitals and won’t have an official Corona linked death toll so all good then hey.
 

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Environmental Busybody
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Another part of that 'she'll be right' culture in business, is the failure to take responsibility for your own choices when the shit hits the fan. It's always someone else's fault. The GFC taught some people this, I've seen SMEs return to family owned and run companies to reduce risk. But others failed to take lessons from it.
 

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Destorying our history
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The 'some' restrictions you're referring to won't smooth the curve, can't have it both ways.

I'm classed as a micro-business. I deliberately chose that because I don't want to be exposed to too much risk. My contracts were all cancelled on Tuesday, when the intra-state travel advisory came out. But, I've planned for these scenarios. I suppose that makes me a 'nervous nellie' generally, but one part of me is not that sympathetic to many of my colleagues out there, that don't manage their risk properly, because 'she'll be right, will never happen' attitude so prevalent in this country. It's such a strong cultural imbedded thing. Act like a dick, then cry like a baby the instant something challenging comes up. It does my head in. If you'd told those people to act more responsibly in the good times, they'd tell you to F.O. Then in the bad times expect everyone to come running to their aid. It's good you're all looking out for each other, because it's not other people's job to clean up after risk-takers.
A lot of people have families to support and have back up jobs or financial earning capacity as a back up. No one could ever anticipate this and the government has literally shut down entire industries where skills aren’t transferable.

For someone who pretends to have all this compassion for others you seem to have absolutely zero clue on what all those people who instantly lost their income with no other ability to earn i come might be going through
 

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Environmental Busybody
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I've just said that I'm one of those people. Along with many others probably, I knew the risks and I took responsibility and planned for them.

It's not 'those people' I have no compassion for. It's the usual suspects in here, making out like they're the most entitled people in society, like usual, and if their small rights don't outweigh other people's big rights, then they cry like big heartbroken babies. It's sickening. It's what bullies do.
 

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Discussion Starter #736
A lot of people have families to support and have back up jobs or financial earning capacity as a back up. No one could ever anticipate this and the government has literally shut down entire industries where skills aren’t transferable.

For someone who pretends to have all this compassion for others you seem to have absolutely zero clue on what all those people who instantly lost their income with no other ability to earn i come might be going through
Mate if anyone is lacking empath here its you, you've suggested that the economy should come before those who are at risk and vulnerable, despite having no evidence to suggest that doing so would prevent a melt-down of the health system and economy anyway.

You're being incredibly short-sighted in only acknowledging immediate economic effects of the lock-downs with no thought to the long term impact of the alternate measures which you are proposing.
 

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Maybe i missed it, but nowhere in that article does it state that the "vast majority of us will be fine", nor does it state "vast majority are not at risk".

The author makes the assumption that the health care system is unaffected, every statistic referencing fatality rates in that article is with the assumption that the health care system is operating at efficiency, which with current growth rates, it will no longer be in just 2 weeks. When you're triaging ICU patients because of capacity constraints, then the the fatality rate will increase significantly. This is what they're trying to avoid.

Do you actually realise how much of the Australian Labour Force sit in this 'elderly' or 'vulnerable' age bracket, and if they're left to die the gravity of the lasting effects on the Australian will be far more significant than the current shock. Do you actually understand that over 3.7million, or over 27% of Australians Labour Force is made up of those who are considered to be in the vulnerable age bracket 50+ years old.
Ok, I get what you are saying. Here is an article about the rates in NYC. It was also linked from Buzzfeed. These stats clearly show a leaning to the vulnerable and the elderly (mostly with preconditions) when it comes to fatality. As you pointed out, it shows people in younger age grps still being hospitalized, though rarely part of the fatality. And yes, that means they may be taking up hospital resources that could have been used for the elderly etc. It's a hospital resource management issue as much as anything:

One in Four NYC Hospital Coronavirus Patients Is Under Age 50

Now, my point about the 'economy". I don't want to sacrifice ppl because I think the economy is more important. I feel like I am being trouped like Trump. I am not saying the economy is everything. To be clear, this is a health crisis and the economy is becoming IN crisis as a result. The thing is, we all know the economy is going to suffer but at some point, economies can suffer only so much and then they don't come back (quickly or reasonably quickly). If the economy completely shuts down rather than just gets a short-term (relatively speaking) pain, it is quite possible, the "cure" (ie completely ignoring the economy and allowing it to flat-line) will result in more deaths. Major collateral damage would assure.

So, the point is, balance. Can't stress that enough. Now watch this video. Tim Pool commenting on the misrepresentation of trump saying he wants to kick-start the economy by Easter. Really watch it. It's what he wants to do, and here is the bit not quoted in the MSM, based on the available data at the time and the medical advice.I don't expect you to agree with it all but I think reasonable people will see the intent. Watch it from 20 minutes 10 seconds.

 

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Well I guess all the suicides and deep depression won’t swamp the hospitals and won’t have an official Corona linked death toll so all good then hey.
You say that it is all good not me troll. I nor health workers are the cause of the virus, I nor health workers are responsible for suicides or depression before or after the pandemic, I nor health workers have caused the economic depression, nor are any overwhelmed health workers responsible for any virus or mental health death and suffering. Mass deaths and virus complications also cause family and friends to have deep depression and suffering as well. There are no winners in any of this. You can be irresponsible and not follow instructions to self isolate deluding yourself that if we took no measures it would all go away and the economy and society would hummer along, I will choose not too.
 

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Guac Bowl Merchant
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I realise that, salaries etc would drain the bank fast. But, they've chosen that level of risk. They didn't need to. They wanted to, presumably going for the big reward. If you're going for the big reward, the big risk comes with the territory. I feel bad for everyone, but please do not make out like these people are more important than other people.
It's not about going for the big reward, it's about the fact that most businesses do no plan for entire industries shutting down instantly and indefinitely.

These businesses drive the economy, these people are entrepreneurial, they employ people.

Are they and the people they employ more important to the country than say a druggie who just got his newstart doubled and gets to sit in the safety of his home through all this? Sure are to me.
 

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Show me where your verified sources of information are then, you're making claims stating that "the vast majority of us will be just fine" and that the "vast majority are not at risk" but I've seen no verified figures which actually support this narrative that you're pushing. Nor have i seen any empirical evidence to suggest that isolating just the vulnerable in their homes will serve to stop the spread of the virus or mitigate the looming shortage medical resources to treat the issue, nor have i seen any evidence that suggests doing so would allow the economy to carry on its merry way now that its missing over a quarter of its workforce.

I too will change my view if there is empirical evidence supporting the narrative you are pushing, i have no issues with that, but right now i'm not seeing it and i actually see far greater risk too society and the economy long term by attempting what you are suggesting, if the argument is wrong.

36886


So, basically under 55 it is 0.1% and we DON'T know what percentage of them that had a precondition.
 
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