NorthEnd said:
Acutally I talked to a few people in Howard's riding just before the election who had a lot of respect for him, people feel that he works very hard. I'm sure he has done many great things, but I don't appreciate the intrusion on municipal affairs. If he wanted to remain such an active figure in downtown developments he should have remained a city councillor.
well as to a majority for the ndp and them riding a wave in metro . The NDp is riding a wave that extends way beyond metro now. The ridings of Queens and Shelburne and East Pictou have never been NDP before and in the case of Queens the Tories longer that any political party has held a riding . The last time Queens was anything but tory was 1952. Every single riding from Argille to the Strait of Canso on the atlantic coast had the NDP in second place if not winning with the Liberals a distant third with many ridings with one exception Bedford. The Liberals were 10 percentage points behind the NDP in most ridings. In 16 ridings in the province the ndp came in second. So if only 40 percent of ridings were to be converted to NDP inwhich they came second you would have a majority NDP government. Considering the NDP Grew their number of seats by 36 percent in 2003 and 33 percent in 2006 the NDP are in striking distance and the tipping point is very close. Negatives against the NDP dont come until they are in government. A minroity government heavily influenced by NDP policy is gaining momentum for the NDP not the Tories as evidenced by the loss of 4 seats by the Tories to the NDP.
And the loss of a Liberal seat to the NDP in metro. Three seats or 60 percent of seat gains were outside Metro. Not One NDp riding has been lost to the tories or liberals in the last two elections and that has included NDP incumbants being replaced by new ndp canidates.The NDP has been winning against replacements for incumbants for the liberals and conservatives. The NDp has gone from individual MLAs having loyal followings to the NDP brand having a loyal following. There has been a brand loyality shift and the shift has been to a stronger brand then the Liberal and the Tories. The riding of Pictou East and West are clear examples of this.
So what accounts for the NDP's growth and holding power? Excellent constituency work by the NDP MLA's. Charlie Parker was first elected in West Pictou with a margin of 35 votes over a Tory. Tory Mureil "Fluff" Bailie then defeated Parker. Parker then defeated the Tory canidate in 2003 and not even the Bailie name with the once mighty tory banner could defeat Parker in 2006. Parker now has a majority of over 1000 votes in what was a longtime tory strong hold with a former Buchanan tory cabinet minister. That type of work by Charlie Parker in Pictou West is driving down the vote totals for the Tories in neighbooring ridings like Pictou East and Pictou Centre. The NDP cancer is spreading. Parker in Pictou county has be the fine edge of the wedge with neighbooring ridings having their concerns addressed faster by Charlie Parker then the former premier of the province John Hamm. I am sure the same effect may happen on the south shore as well as places broading metro.
People who experience the NDP for a MLA representing their riding seem to be converted to voting for them in the future. The problem for the liberals and tories is that the flock of mindless sheep that voted for them are dying off and not being replaced by new blood. Halifax with its presence of university students from all parts of the province is fertile breading ground for future and spreading support of the NDP in rural nova scotia.
My prediction next election ,which could be in 18 months, is you will see the tories lose one of their two seats in metro to the NDP. One to NDP on the south shore in Lunenburg. Either eastern shore or guysborough will go NDP or both . Hants West, Kings North or South will eventualy go NDP. The NDp will probably pick up Glace Bay and maybe the riding for Manny Macdonald when he retires. Cape Bretoners will probably send another NDP MLA to province house as they tend to believe in trying to vote for the party they feel will be the next Government. That looked like the tories at this point , next election is will be the NDP as the longer a party governs the more reasons to vote against a ruling pary then to vote for them. The cycle of changing governments is coming and the NDP is the party in the position to take power. The Liberals are in huge trouble money and moral of their faithful who are dying faster then new ones can be recruited.The liberals are becoming the odd man out with their elected MLA at opposite ends of the province with one exception being Diane Wailen in Clayton Park. She is likely to be the next liberal to fall to the NDP in an election. Wild cards for the NDP that I can see picked up are Bible Hill Truro and Pictou Centre.With Pictou Centre the exspectations of Trenton residents electing a Trenton native will not be rewarded with the NSP cleaning up their act, the town of trenton getting equitty in commercial tax share or the streets paved. Pat Dunns honeymoon will be short but not sweet as he will be a powerless figure on the backbenchs on the tory side of the house. Queens may go back to the Tories next election when the Liberals run a canidate but if trends continue the NDP will may make local gains thru good constituency work that both the liberals and especially the tories seem to be lacking. The longer a party has had a riding then the better for the NDP as the difference of the representative is more apparent. Pictou centre and Cape Breton south are two prime ridings for change to the NDP with long entrenched liberal and tory runs from the 1970's.
The strong hold the NDP has over a old line party regaining once blue or red riding has to do with what people said about Howard Epstein being respected in his riding. The NDPers work for the people they represent not for friends in high places.
Howards interjection into affairs in the area is what perahps makes him appealing to the people who elect him . An MLA cant just tow the party line and not be involved in the community he or she was elected from. Being detached from what goes on in the riding or neighbooring ridings is what the tories and liberals are famous for. These days the mindset is very much becoming "Out of Touch with the community out of a job as an MLA in a future election."
jim jones
