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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Is it just me or is anyone else getting sick of the economic doom and gloom comming from the media, opposition, some economists, forumers on here and some members of the public? Sure things aren't like they were pre gfc but compared to most of the developed world, we are doing great. But if you listen to the groups mentioned above, you would think Australia is a economic basket case.
 

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We're talking ourselves into a downturn. Our economy is doing great, sentiment is affecting investment and was affecting retail which has notably picked up recently (no news on that though, just news of a few manufacturing job losses - wow!)

Its not going to end until Liberal are in power. Majority of people don't trust Labor and the negative media is relentless. And unfortunately most people are sheep and believe whatever they are told without thinking for themselves. Certain few forumers on here fit that bill.
 

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ypph said:
Is it just me or is anyone else getting sick of the economic doom and gloom comming from the media, opposition, some econimists, forumers on here and some members of the public? Sure things aren't like they were pre gfc but compared to most of the developed world, we are doing great. But if you listen to the groups mentioned above, you would think Australia is a economic basket case.
Australia is generally doing fine. We've got a healthy economy and a reasonable demographic profile. We're spending less on welfare as % of GDP than all other Western countries apart from Switzerland and New Zealand. Contrary to popular belief we're spending less than the US on welfare because of our ethnic composition being more favourable.

However, even in good times there are dangers. The recession we had to have about 5 to 10 years ago never happened because of booming mining exports. This has made unaffordability, loss of productivity and uncompetitivness and an overvalued currency real problems. These issues together with the complacency that comes with it will create huge problems in the future unless the record resource prices come back down.

However, most countries would happily have our problems. Europe is screwed, country after country is falling. Now it's reaching France. Basically, those countries will face collapse, war and hellfire. By the beard of Zeus it's not certain to me at this point whether there will be a renaissance. Our children and grandchildren will maybe live to tell.
 

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We're talking ourselves into a downturn. Our economy is doing great, sentiment is affecting investment and was affecting retail which has notably picked up recently (no news on that though, just news of a few manufacturing job losses - wow!)

Its not going to end until Liberal are in power. Majority of people don't trust Labor and the negative media is relentless. And unfortunately most people are sheep and believe whatever they are told without thinking for themselves. Certain few forumers on here fit that bill.
RUBBISH! Sentiment/confidence is an excuse used to cover-up/ignore the underlaying problems with our economic system, that primarily being peak debt and the fact that the western world has reached a point where it is unable to grow without more debt but there is no more and paying back that debt is taking money away from spending and real growth. This includes high mortgage payments.

**** this place is full of a pack of idiots!
 

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We're talking ourselves into a downturn. Our economy is doing great, sentiment is affecting investment and was affecting retail which has notably picked up recently (no news on that though, just news of a few manufacturing job losses - wow!)
The economy is relying on a commodity and real estate bubble for it's success. The real estate bubble, which is really just a credit bubble, is already deflating. And slowing growth in China threatens the commodity bubble. There is plenty of reason for concern.
Parties do not last forever. We gotta keep a watch out for the icebergs in the water and not steam ahead mindlessly.
 

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Look, I'm all for people partying it up and being happy, and having a good and happy homelife and enjoying the things that matter (out of this topic I sure do), BUT, putting on a happy face to ignore the underlying economic strife, and therefore not preparing for it, is foolish and will not give you any joy as things deteriorate - and they are right now.

This isn't about "being happy". It's about ignoring vs acknowledging and addressing the problems in our current economic system.
 

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Happy happy joy joy!



BTW, go to the last page of the following document:
http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/TechnicalPDF_4551_1343155312.pdf

The coincident indicator chart shows a nearly non-stop rise going all the way back to 1991. It didn't even stop in 2008/09 when the economy in most of the world came tumbling down. The leading indicators chart above it show only 2 relatively mild pauses in 2001 and 2008 (note: it looks like it's pausing once again).

Has Australia had any recessions since 1991? :?

EDIT: I just noticed on both charts it says the shaded area indicates recessions ... and there are no shaded areas since 1991!

YOU GUYS HAVEN'T HAD A RECESSION SINCE 1991! :bash: YOU'RE DUE!!! :bash:
 

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YOU GUYS HAVEN'T HAD A RECESSION SINCE 1991! :bash: YOU'RE DUE!!! :bash:
I know. I have been hopeful it will be a very soft landing, so long as China's economy remains strong, the commodity boom will continue and so will the two speed economy.
Unfortunately, China's economy is stalling. Which is concerning.
 

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OK, now that I've just found out about Oz's lack of recessions, I just HAVE to know something. Out of economic curiosity.

I just found here that Australia's yield curve has inverted (and apparently it was inverted as far back as September).

At least back in September from the 2nd link, very short-term yields were higher than 2-year yields, but 2-year yields were still lower than longer-dated ones. So while the yield curve was inverted, it was a sort-of weird inversion.



Usually when you get something like the 2-year with a higher yield than, say, a 10-year, that spells trouble (read 1st link). But in this case, *only* shorter-duration yields were inverted.

So what I want to know is ... does anyone know of a good website where I can get a longer history of Australian yield curves? It would be interesting to know if Oz has had inverted yield curves any time since 1991, given that there have been no recessions.
 

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RUBBISH! Sentiment/confidence is an excuse used to cover-up/ignore the underlaying problems with our economic system, that primarily being peak debt and the fact that the western world has reached a point where it is unable to grow without more debt but there is no more and paying back that debt is taking money away from spending and real growth. This includes high mortgage payments.

**** this place is full of a pack of idiots!
lol, peak debt.

lol, not thinking sentiment has anything to do with an economy.

The economy is relying on a commodity and real estate bubble for it's success. The real estate bubble, which is really just a credit bubble, is already deflating. And slowing growth in China threatens the commodity bubble. There is plenty of reason for concern.
Parties do not last forever. We gotta keep a watch out for the icebergs in the water and not steam ahead mindlessly.
So what do we do? Not enjoy our commodity success? Let it collapse along with the rest of us?

Look, I'm all for people partying it up and being happy, and having a good and happy homelife and enjoying the things that matter (out of this topic I sure do), BUT, putting on a happy face to ignore the underlying economic strife, and therefore not preparing for it, is foolish and will not give you any joy as things deteriorate - and they are right now.

This isn't about "being happy". It's about ignoring vs acknowledging and addressing the problems in our current economic system.
No your not, you want everyone to be holed up in a bunker being too scared to ever spend or invest a cent because of fear they'll be forced to live in a post apocalyptic world.

There is ALWAYS some underlying economic problem and there are ALWAYS 2 sides to every coin. Whats good for one is bad for another.

People not spending as much on houses as they used to is NOT economic strife. Please point out exactly where the economic strife lies. And don't say Europe, we've been hearing it for 5 years and in 5 years nothing has happened, except that things have got better.
 

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So what do we do? Not enjoy our commodity success? Let it collapse along with the rest of us?
Public needs to avoid getting heavily leveraged and pay down debts.
The government needs to get the budget into a surplus so they have their financials in order so we don't turn into Spain or Greece and so there is capacity for future stimuluses.
Fortunately both these things appear to be happening at the moment! So we just need to keep doing what we're doing.
The banks however, not so much, they are struggling with a tight housing market, and have reportedly been lowering their lending standards, a potential risk to the country that needs more attention.
 

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It's hilarious. The economic conditions will continue to deteriorate and Ryan will continue to claim it's because of sediment. lol.
 

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Public needs to avoid getting heavily leveraged and pay down debts.
The government needs to get the budget into a surplus so they have their financials in order so we don't turn into Spain or Greece and so there is capacity for future stimuluses.
Fortunately both these things appear to be happening at the moment! So we just need to keep doing what we're doing.
The banks however, not so much, they are struggling with a tight housing market, and have reportedly been lowering their lending standards, a potential risk to the country that needs more attention.
The government was definitely fiscally irresponsible just after the GFC, we hardly needed all that stimulus and I agree governments need to reduce spending and increase investment. Fucking school halls and pink bats!!!

It's hilarious. The economic conditions will continue to deteriorate and Ryan will continue to claim it's because of sediment. lol.
Well if we keep talking down or economy we may eventually end up like Europe. Seriously if things are as bad as you say there are shouldn't we be talking up the economy? Oh thats right, your still waiting for that massive housing bust, 5 years and counting :lol:
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
ryan79 said:
The government was definitely fiscally irresponsible just after the GFC, we hardly needed all that stimulus and I agree governments need to reduce spending and increase investment. Fucking school halls and pink bats!!!
I think the $900 cheques and the pink bats were a massive waste of money but the the school halls was a worthwhile project that were administered baldly by public servants [mainly in NSW, VIC and QLD]and rorted by construction companies. I don't think our debt levels would be significantly lower under the liberals. They can pretend the GFC never happened but that only makes then delusional fools.
 

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I just doubt they would have wasted that money on basically nothing. It was a rort gifted to a union sector of the economy, its fucking disgraceful.
 

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The government was definitely fiscally irresponsible just after the GFC, we hardly needed all that stimulus and I agree governments need to reduce spending and increase investment. Fucking school halls and pink bats!!!
No, the government did exactly the right thing. Acted swiftly to prop the economy up. Without that action it's likely 2009 would have been a technical recession, which would have meant lower confidence and higher unemployment. You can question it's efficiency and level of waste, but the necessity for it was certainly there.



Well if we keep talking down or economy we may eventually end up like Europe. Seriously if things are as bad as you say there are shouldn't we be talking up the economy? Oh thats right, your still waiting for that massive housing bust, 5 years and counting :lol:
Recessions are usually caused by people doing nothing but talking things up! Bubble economies are based around recklessness and nobody paying attention to risk. The prevailing climate of realism and caution, is sensible. Especially given what is going on in Europe.
 

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Don't worry, be happy, was a number one jam.

Damn, if I say it you can slap me right here.

- Chuck D, Fight The Power

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The Australian stock market, is at the same level now as it was in April, 2005. That's seven years of, broadly speaking, no growth in the capital of Australian companies.

House prices are falling almost everywhere in Australia, and certainly as an average, they have been falling for years now.

Interest rates are falling - this doesn't happen when times are good.

Unemployment is rising - the real figure is masked by the incredible shift to casual workers, and let me tell you, casual workers are not going to pull an economy back to strong growth.

As Europe - China's biggest customer - deteriorates by the day (Spain is broke now), Australia is next in line in the domino chain.

End game.

PS, "sentiment" = lol. For evidence, look at Europe.
 
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