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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Economic Prediction for successor states of former Yugoslavia estimated data for 2005

Latest GDP statistics (estimates - 2005) for all former Yugoslav successor states, all figures in US Dollars.
Terminology: Bn. - billion, PHA - Per Head Annum, PPP - Purchasing Power Parity.
Slovenia - 34.7Bn.$, - 17 350$ PHA, - 20 400$ PPP$
Croatia - 40.8Bn.$ - 9270$ PHA, PPP - 13 400$
Bosnia - 9.54Bn.$ - 2510$ PHA, - PPP$ - 7200$
Serbia - 22.6Bn.$ - 2160$ PHA, - PPP - 4600$
Montenegro - 1.8Bn.$ - 2770$ PHA, - PPP - 4900$
Macedonia - 6.4Bn.$ - 3150$ PHA, - PPP - 6400$

Prediction for 2010.

Slovenia - 44.3Bn.$, - 22 150$ PHA, - 25 600$ PPP$
Croatia - 60.8Bn.$ - 13800$ PHA, PPP - 18 400$
Bosnia - 14.4Bn.$ - 3600$ PHA, - PPP$ - 9600$
Serbia - 33.6Bn.$ - 3160$ PHA, - PPP - 6600$
Montenegro - 2.6Bn.$ - 3770$ PHA, - PPP - 6900$
Macedonia - 9.2Bn.$ - 4550$ PHA, - PPP - 8600$

This thread is to show economic development in region formerly know as Yugoslavia.
The war affects are clearly seen thought out the region.
Effects of war had tremendous effects on regional economies and it is estimated it will take Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro at least 5 more years to reach its pre-war level of development.

Croatia had achieved its pre-war level of development in 2003 and Slovenia in 1997.
Macedonia is excepted to reach its pre-war level of development this year.

edit -----

Average Monthly Pays, Net - US$
Slovenia - 985
Croatia - 775
Bosnia - 300
Serbia - 225
Montenegro - 220
Macedonia - 250

Average Monthly Pay Gross - US$

Slovenia - 1405
Croatia - 1120
Bosnia - 420
Serbia - 385
Montenegro - 350
Macedonia - 380



if you have some better data and think I might be wrong, plz point it out here and I would love to discuss the issues, btw my data can be corroborated by WB and EU statistical office if we use last financial year as a source.

www.geohive.com is another brilliant site which publishes all government research and centralises it in to one huge free database anyone can use. Naturally all date is sourced with links to the original site so ppl can actually verify the data for them self's.

Any data you want to contribute and explain how you derived to conclusion would be also great, thanx...
 

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How the hell does Serbia have even lower figures than Macedonia, the poorest and least industrialised of all YU states? Is this a statistical error (huge gray economy?) or Kosovo is dragging the rest Vojvodina and Serbia?
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
braykov1988 said:
How the hell does Serbia have even lower figures than Macedonia, the poorest and least industrialised of all YU states? Is this a statistical error (huge gray economy?) or Kosovo is dragging the rest Vojvodina and Serbia?
War and economic sanctions...
I think Serbia is not that bad when you consider how much damage has been done to road and transport infrastructure.
 

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So if this continues then by 2020 we'll be a bit ahead where Croatia is now, and since that's when we're supposed to start joining the EU and Croatia is starting negotiations this year...

So economically the 2018 predictions make sense. Interesting.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 · (Edited)
eeeee
 

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mic of Orion said:
Yes, it is my hope, but it'll slow down next decade, Slovenian PPP will than equalize with its PHA income and even drop slightly by the end of next decade, although now it look way cool, in 2018-2020 Slovenia PPP is going to be smaller than than its PHA income.

Same think might happened to all other Central European nations but few years later say 2020-2024.

Bosnia might get in to EU before 2018, I think 2015 is more likely time for Bosnia to join EU along with Serbia and Macedonia, sorry to say but I don't think Macedonia will join EU before 2015.

And I think there is a big chance Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania will join together but not in 2007, I think 2008 is more likely date.
Macedonia and Croatia are supposed to join before all the other remaining states. At least that's what they have been reporting lately.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 · (Edited)
tttt
 

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mic of Orion said:
Croatia yes, Macedonia no.
Macedonia has applied to join EU and has applied for membership I think in February, but it was diplomatically brushed aside as it doesn't comply with some of the most basic requirement to join.

There are loads of issues with Macedonia, many from economic stand point, and it is unlikely they going to join before 2012, but it is more likely the date would be 2015 along with Serbia and Montenegro and Bosnia if they are successful and reform there economies.

For Macedonia, most important issues now are legal framework, judicial reforms, social reforms, minority issues, economic issues and reforms, border issues and political reforms and corruption.

For Croatia to sort all this issues took 4 years - if Macedonia can sort them in 4 years than they will start negotiations (normally they last 5 years ,a minimum is 3). I also have to say Croatia already complies with almost 25 EU chapters also known as Acquis Communauté - Croatia only needs to ratify them in Croatian Parliament which would take about 25 sessions and about 25 weeks or 6 months, but it can only do that when negotiations start as this is how EU works slow and bureaucratic.

For remaining 6 chapters Croatia needs another 6 moths of negotiations at most. So in this time in 2006 Croatia would be ready and willing to join. But I have strong doubts whether Romania and Bulgaria are ready, corruption and legal framework legislation is stuck and many issues of official and unofficial corruption - week economy and strong government interference in to market structures. There are loads of issues, in my opinion Bulgaria and Romania are not ready for membership before 2008.
I didn't mean at the same time as Croatia. It is just going to join before the other states. Here is the prediction made by the Institute for War and Peace:

Evropske perspektive regiona
7. april 2005. | 17:04 -> 17:43 | Izvor: B92, Beta
London -- Institut za izveštavanje o ratu i miru ocenjuje da će samo dve zemlje zapadnog Balkana dobiti status kandidata za EU 2006.

Prema ocenama tog instituta, te dve zemlje su Makedonija i Hrvatska. U najnovijoj analizi evropske perspektive regiona, IWPR navodi da su odlaganje pregovora Evropske unije sa Hrvatskom i sve veća izvesnost da će SCG dobiti pozitivnu ocenu Studije o izvodljivosti, podstakli spekulacije da bi svih pet zemalja zapadnog Balkana mogle da budu primljene u EU istovremeno.

"Diplomate i stručnjaci u Briselu, međutim, upozoravaju da je malo verovatan scenario da Albanija, Bosna i Hercegovina, Srbija i Crna Gora, Hrvatska i Makedonija simultano uđu u EU", preneo je IWPR.

Institut citira komesara za proširenje Unije Olija Rena, koji je rekao da mu je cilj da, do kraja mandata 2009, "Bugarska i Rumunija uđu u EU potpuno spremne za članstvo, da pregovori sa Hrvatskom i Turskom dobro krenu i da počnemo barem sa Makedonijom".
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
PyRoMaNiAc said:
I didn't mean at the same time as Croatia. It is just going to join before the other states. Here is the prediction made by the Institute for War and Peace:
plz, put it in English, my Serbian is not that good, and I am cretin most ppl here don't understand Serbian. No offence meant, thanx
 

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mic of Orion said:
plz, put it in English, my Serbian is not that good, and I am cretin most ppl here don't understand Serbian. No offence meant, thanx
It basically says that there are no chances that all the countries are going to join together. It says by 2009 Bulgaria and Romania should already be in the EU, Croatia and Turkey should be completing talks, and Macedonia will begin its talks. It didn't mention the other countries because they will join at a later date.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 · (Edited)
ggg
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 · (Edited)
jjj
 

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I'm sorry, but I find these satistics very unbelievable, but I won't ruin this thead, but going on about all it's mistakes. :) I just hope that you taken in account that the REAL satistics haven't been made yet. :|
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 · (Edited)
gfg
 

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mic of Orion said:
it is estimates as pointed out for 2005, and are quite accurate as they predict growth from previous year, meaning you can only grow so much this year, and you wouldn't ruin the thread you are here to make your view seen and discussed, if which respect did I undermined or make mistakes in y estimates - I would like to ce them, so I can make better prediction in future, it is very important you get data as close to actual.

I am using WB and Nation Banks report of various countries mentioned here, I ce there prediction and use them as close I can.
All I said was that it wasn't exactly correct. They are estimates, and of course that is the best that people can do for these countries, since their recent wars. :)

:cheers1: (please continue with the thread, i don't wish to ruin it)
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 · (Edited)
MIMICA said:
All I said was that it wasn't exactly correct. They are estimates, and of course that is the best that people can do for these countries, since their recent wars. :)

:cheers1: (please continue with the thread, i don't wish to ruin it)

aha, okies, they are not 100% accurate - true, but they are about best prediction I can come with at this time.
 
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