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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Meles wants to industrialise agricultural economy
* Reiterates 11-15 percent growth prediction
* Ethiopia to export power within two years
By Barry Malone
ADDIS ABABA, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Ethiopia is hoping to attract more investment from Chinese, Indian and Turkish companies as part of efforts to industrialise its largely agriculture-based economy, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said.
Though still one of the world's poorest countries, Ethiopia says it has posted double-digit growth rates for six years in a row making it Africa's fastest growing non-oil producer.
"Our hope is that industry will grow faster than agriculture over the next five years," Meles told Reuters in an interview. "We will maintain an export-led industrialisation strategy. The main approach will be to try to attract investment."
Meles said his government would target Chinese, Indian and Turkish firms who wanted to invest in the country's fledgling textile and leather industries.
"We expect more investment from Turkey," Meles said. "We also expect more investment in the textile sector from Indian companies. In the leather industry, a lot of Chinese companies have shown an interest. Some Europeans, too."
Ethiopia's new five-year plan, unveiled in August, predicts a "base-case" scenario of 11 percent average annual growth and a "high-case scenario" of 14.9 percent growth for the period.
Meles said the economy would grow this year at between the 11 percent predicted by his finance ministry and a more ambitious 15 percent.
Ethiopia is Africa's biggest coffee exporter and the world's fourth largest exporter of sesame. It is also one of Africa's biggest potential markets -- with a population of 80 million -- and most of its people have no telephones or bank accounts.
But Meles stood firm on his long-held position that there would be no liberalisation of telecommunications or banking.
Despite that, the 55-year-old said he hoped talks for Ethiopia to enter the World Trade Organisation, would finish soon: "The negotiations are beginning to pick up momentum now."
The former rebel said foreign reserves, which fell to $850 million earlier in 2009, had recovered on booming exports.
POWER PLANS
He dismissed concerns that a 16.7 percent devaluation of the Ethiopian birr, the fourth since January 2009, could spur inflation. The year-on-year inflation rate hit 10.6 percent in October -- way over the government's target of single figures.
"The impact of the devaluation programme is going to be a one-off affair because the massive devaluation was a one-off affair. So we believe the average yearly inflation rate will be in the range of 6-7 percent this year," Meles said.
Inflation in Ethiopia hit a high of 64.2 percent in July 2008. After that peak, the government halted state borrowing and increased bank reserves to drive down the rate and it had been in single digits this year until after the devaluation.
Meles said that power shedding -- which the government says cost the Ethiopian economy 1.1 percent of gross domestic product last year -- should end when a hydroelectric dam that suffered a tunnel collapse is repaired in three months.
Ethiopia, with ambitions to generate 10,000MW, is building Africa's biggest hydropower dam and Meles said the country could become a power exporter within two years.
"I think by the end of the five-year plan we'll be very significant exporters but we should start exporting in a year or two," he said. "Djibouti will probably the first country to get power supply from Ethiopia."
Meles rejected claims from the opposition and some foreign analysts that his government inflates growth figures to attract investment.
"Our economic growth is evaluated very carefully by the IMF and they have never said that we have cooked the outturn figures," Meles said. "They have accepted them as facts. And cooking figures is a very dangerous thing to do."
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Without a liberalised telecomms and banking sector- Ethiopia will suffer.

Its the banks that lend money to businesses which keeps the economy running, and telecomms is a basic need in this globalised world.

I also doubt some of the figures from Ethiopia but even the IMF are still saying 8-9% so even the worst case scenario- growth is still strong.
 
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There will never be any liberalization of the banking and telecommunications sector under the current government, without these key sector’s they(TPLF) wouldn’t be able to have a strangle hold on the country
 

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There will never be any liberalization of the banking and telecommunications sector under the current government, without these key sector’s they(TPLF) wouldn’t be able to have a strangle hold on the country
First time ever that I agree with you.


They may liberalize them in 10 years time, but I'd be shocked if it happened before 2015.

The banking is one thing, but telecoms is killing the country.
 

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Sagar
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indians will not personally come and work they will invest and the people there will work... also i think 90% of the african network of telecom is operated by Zain and Bharti Airtel(indian company) just bought it recently... and beleive me guys it is largest indian company and has transformed the telecom sector from just 5 million GSM subscribers in 2001 to more than 650 million subscribers now..

and i am 100% sure that there will be revolution in telecom sector in whole africa in the next 10 yrs with Bharti believe me guys :cheers:
 

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Mutu ya Chuma.
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indians will not personally come and work they will invest and the people there will work... also i think 90% of the african network of telecom is operated by Zain and Bharti Airtel(indian company) just bought it recently... and beleive me guys it is largest indian company and has transformed the telecom sector from just 5 million GSM subscribers in 2001 to more than 650 million subscribers now..

and i am 100% sure that there will be revolution in telecom sector in whole africa in the next 10 yrs with Bharti believe me guys :cheers:
Are sure about that?

Does Zain has more Subcribers than MTN and Vodacom on the continent?

EDIT: I just find out this
Bharti currently has a little over 40 million customers in Africa across 16 markets following its acquisition of Zain Africa earlier this year.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201011231065.html
 

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Sagar
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^^ may be as i heard in local media here.... but if we can get a proper source of market share then it will clarify more...
 

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Sagar
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The media there lied. MTN first then Vodacom and then Zain comes in third.
and what about the subscribers?? i mean the % of market share of these 3 companies
 

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The economist wrote an article were they predict 10% growth for Ethiopia and Eritrea for 2011, making the them the third fastest growing economies after Qatar and Ghana.
 

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^^ Just saw that on Nazret. Awesome, especially since Ethiopia is the only one out of the top 4 that is non-commodity driven: Qatar (gas and oil), Ghana (oil), Eritrea (mining).. So basically we will be the fastest growing non-commodity economy in the world next year. :cheers:
 

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The economist wrote an article were they predict 10% growth for Ethiopia and Eritrea for 2011, making the them the third fastest growing economies after Qatar and Ghana.
The Economist's "The World in 2011" edition is always the best read of the year of any publication. It has facts and figures from most countries and articles written by world leaders. It's also interesting to see predictions made by the magazine of what will happen next year.
 

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The Economist's "The World in 2011" edition is always the best read of the year of any publication. It has facts and figures from most countries and articles written by world leaders. It's also interesting to see predictions made by the magazine of what will happen next year.
I always see it in Borders but I never bothered to buy it. Might have to make a trip today to go and get it.

Eritrea's economy will grow 10%?

wow, i am suprised by that?
It's due to the anticipated mining boom. The economy is tiny and was even contracting for a few years so a few millions from gold will create large booms (in numbers at least). It's not going to have much impact though unless it's used properly over several years and the government stops its anti-business mentality.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
I always see it in Borders but I never bothered to buy it. Might have to make a trip today to go and get it.



It's due to the anticipated mining boom. The economy is tiny and was even contracting for a few years so a few millions from gold will create large booms (in numbers at least). It's not going to have much impact though unless it's used properly over several years and the government stops its anti-business mentality.
Now thats a crazy-ass country right there. They should be latching onto Ethiopias economic rise rather that the current status quo. They could make a mint from transit/port fees as well as Ethiopian tourists wanting some beach action.

Been reading the Economist "The World in" for 17 years now and counting! I love it.
 
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