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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Miami, Fla.
Of the big cities measured by Moody's, Miami ranked last in regards to how long it would take to absorb the available housing stock at the present sales rate, but an improving rate of market tightening counterbalanced that. Gone, it seems, are the days when Miami condominiums sold out before they were finished being built. South Florida real estate slows considerably in an active hurricane season; sellers hoping for a dry end to 2007.
 

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Miami, Fla.
Of the big cities measured by Moody's, Miami ranked last in regards to how long it would take to absorb the available housing stock at the present sales rate, but an improving rate of market tightening counterbalanced that. Gone, it seems, are the days when Miami condominiums sold out before they were finished being built. South Florida real estate slows considerably in an active hurricane season; sellers hoping for a dry end to 2007.
^^
Love MIAMI:) < my friend,
I read that too:nuts: ,
Even San Fransico, California ( earthquake due soon , The Big one is supposed to still happen in the next 30 years ) and Baltimore, Maryland my birthtown , then moved quickly to MIAMI, my real Home sweet Home !!!:cheers: .
these area's along with many others such as Houston and Dallas , texas. were ahead of US !!!
and the MIAMI area was way last:nuts: :eek:hno:
 

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The problem is, most of the available housing stock currently on the market in Miami is unappealing to buyers because it's mostly small, expensive, blinged-out one bedroom condos nobody sane will to buy at the current prices, and that can't easily drop in price because their owners are all in the hole financially & would have to cough up additional cash of their own to sell them. And things will get worse for their owners LONG before they get better, because once significant numbers of small investor-owners start getting foreclosed (voluntarily, because they're sick of dumping $2,000/month above and beyond what they can rent them for into a black hole every month, or involuntarily when their savings run out and they have nothing but condos with negative equity to show for it), the prices WILL fall to levels people will consider reasonable, and then the investor-owners will have ZERO chance of selling them at a non-firesale price until the market starts to heat up again in 10-20 years. Someone who owns tiny one-bedroom condos bought at inflated prices today is screwed unless he or she can afford to lose $10k-20k/year (mortgage + taxes + association fees + insurance minus ~$1,500/month rent if they're lucky) for the next 10-20 years until the prices finally go up enough to at least break even with the previous decade or two of losses.

By the way, I'm not saying the Miami market as a whole will be depressed for 10-20 years... just the market for tiny, overpriced condos. The market for single-family homes is still strong, as is the market for condos that aren't tiny. Sales of condos & "attached single-family homes" in places like Doral and other areas north of 836 (where commuting times are bad, but nowhere close to being as bad as they are "down south") are still going strong. Plus, the fact that Doral itself is becoming a major location for companies (sick of high rent and traffic downtown) to relocate.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
The problem is, most of the available housing stock currently on the market in Miami is unappealing to buyers because it's mostly small, expensive, blinged-out one bedroom condos nobody sane will to buy at the current prices, and that can't easily drop in price because their owners are all in the hole financially & would have to cough up additional cash of their own to sell them. And things will get worse for their owners LONG before they get better, because once significant numbers of small investor-owners start getting foreclosed (voluntarily, because they're sick of dumping $2,000/month above and beyond what they can rent them for into a black hole every month, or involuntarily when their savings run out and they have nothing but condos with negative equity to show for it), the prices WILL fall to levels people will consider reasonable, and then the investor-owners will have ZERO chance of selling them at a non-firesale price until the market starts to heat up again in 10-20 years. Someone who owns tiny one-bedroom condos bought at inflated prices today is screwed unless he or she can afford to lose $10k-20k/year (mortgage + taxes + association fees + insurance minus ~$1,500/month rent if they're lucky) for the next 10-20 years until the prices finally go up enough to at least break even with the previous decade or two of losses.

By the way, I'm not saying the Miami market as a whole will be depressed for 10-20 years... just the market for tiny, overpriced condos. The market for single-family homes is still strong, as is the market for condos that aren't tiny. Sales of condos & "attached single-family homes" in places like Doral and other areas north of 836 (where commuting times are bad, but nowhere close to being as bad as they are "down south") are still going strong. Plus, the fact that Doral itself is becoming a major location for companies (sick of high rent and traffic downtown) to relocate.
well i would not agree with you. there are a lot of single people who want 1 bdr condo or people who retire and want a smaller condo to live in.
than there is demand for vacation condos and investment condos. baby boomers will retire soon my friend. those developers are not stupid they do market research. they will wait for couple of years and sell on a big demand. u buy cheap and sell high, thats what traders do.

in real estate you pay for location. and downtown miami is in the middle of everything.
1 bdr condo that is really really nice goes around 300k and in New York is 1.2 mil. and that condo that is in NYC is not even close to that in Miami (for example no view, no garage, no such great ammenities like in Miami)
Thats 4x more than in Miami and you get less quality.
Condos in Miami will not go down. It maybe they stabilize for 1 year but than they will go up cause costs of building will go up and Miami is a great city to love in. It is a gem in tropical and it is in the USA. People will always want to live in Miami and on the top of that Miami is one of the fastest growing cities in the USA, demand will be higher and condos will go up. Just patience. Now is great time to buy. You wont get anymore those prices I promise you.
 

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That's just it... downtown Miami isn't in the middle of everything, except in everyone's dreams and fantasies. At least, not yet. Eventually, yes. It will be. Today, no. It's not. Least of all the CBD.

Somebody who lives in the CBD today has to drive farther to meaningfully go shopping than someone who lives in the most remote cul-de-sac of the Hammocks. They still have a 3-4 mile drive to South Beach when they go out. If they want to run through a drive through at McDonald's (because all the restaurants in the CBD close by nightfall, many after lunch), they've got the same 1-2 mile drive as someone who lives anywhere in suburbia. Except they have the additional hassle of driving around a 3-12 floor spiral to get out of the garage, and again to get back in.

The only thing downtown (particularly CBD) living has going for it right now, today is the shorter commute to work. The rest of the time, downtown's no more convenient (and in many ways, substantially less convenient) than anywhere else.

Now, things are gradually coming together north and south of the CBD, in Brickell, Edgewater, and Midtown. But the CBD per se is going to remain a dysfunctional residential oxymoron for at least a few more years.

Also, keep in mind that a 1 bedroom condo in Manhattan might cost $1.2 million, but a slightly larger townhouse or condo 45 minutes away in the Bronx or New Jersey still costs almost as much, or more. A 1-bedroom condo on the market for $360k in downtown Miami isn't just competing with $460k 2-bedroom condos and $million+ penthouses... it's competing with condos in South Beach that might cost as much, but have the benefit of being on the beach. And houses in places Buena Vista East that cost as much as a 2 bedroom condo, but (unlike the CBD) actually DO have a Publix within walking distance.

I have several friends who bought $280k+ 1-bedroom condos in Brickell as investments. Every single one of them regrets it, and wishes they'd either spent the same amount buying half as many 2 or 3 bedroom units (which ARE still selling reasonably well).
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
who wants to live in south beach in the middle of all tourists. you get crazy there.
im talking about low 300k for 1 bdr and not 360k. Brickell is fantastic place in my opinion to live. its beautifull and its gets only better. its all about preferences.
yes you might buy a house in buena vista east but for single people or yourng couples that is so unattractive especially if they grow up in the city like me.
i hate suburbs. its great for people who are used on it. just not my thing. and there are millions people like me around who are city children and when you throw me in suburbs i do not know what to do :)
 

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who wants to live in south beach in the middle of all tourists. you get crazy there.
I've heard that its relatively quiet in the area south of 5th St, and that not too many tourists venture there.

You both have good points but I think it's obvious that all these condos built downtown in the past few years were not meant to cater to any significant demographic from Miami at all. They were meant for the young urban professional types, empty nesters and retirees from up north. I think the real question that will prove one of you right short term is, how appealing will it be to those people and/or how quick will the absorption rate be. Either way, make no mistake, those units were NEVER built to appeal to a typical Miamian unless he/she is a 'fresh out of college with a good job downtown and sick of living in suburbia all his/her life' person. And thats a pretty narrow demographic down here.

However I can easily see big box retail and malls somehow finding a way to get stores closer to the CBD over the next 5 years or so to cater to the increasing demand in that area. Keep in mind the CBD never had any residential demand for that before. So there was no incentive to build close by. Even Manhattan has a mall on 6th Ave. and 34th (I think). Although it has no parking, is about 7 stories high and occupies an incredibly small lateral space (which it makes up for vertically). So it's not what most would think off when they think og a typical mall. But it shows that if the demand is there they will build it, it just takes some time. However by that time downtown is that attractive the price of a condo will be.... well... you think it's expensive now. :)
 

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I think the real key to Miami's real estate market will be how long will certain S. American countries remain unstable and/or will Chavez give Venezuelan investors reason to suddenly sell all their Miami RE and take their money back to Venezuela soon (unlikely knowing 'Che'vez Guevara :lol:). Also if something happens to the Euro or Pound that would make all the Brit and German investors wanna pull out and go somewhere else. I have always felt that Miami's real estate market is more influenced by international investors than domestic.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
in my opinion CBD is getting developed big time. Like many big cities that area is transforming. It will be totally different in 5 to 10 years. New people, new buildings, new shops, etc... It is just a big challenge to buy there and take a risk and sit on your investment. It is like a some stock that has a huge potential but it needs some time to make a huge profit. Now it is up to us to buy it or not to buy it or to live in or not to live in. I always like transformtation cities and city that have a huge potential. I think that people who bought in Brickell as investment have nothing to lose. At least investors will have a nice place to come for vacation in sunny Florida :)
 

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I have always felt that Miami's real estate market is more influenced by international investors than domestic.
I respectfully disagree. I agree that international buyers may have a presence in the market..........do they have more influence on the market than S Florida residents? No.
 

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foreign buyers

well when it comes to the Miami market in general maybe that statement isn't true but I think gringo was refering to high end condos along brickell, sobe and downtown and yes that market is heavily influenced by foreign buyers.
 

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Yes thats exactly what I was talking about. I didn't mean that Kendall, Doral or 95% of Miami is more influenced by international buyers. Just the parts east of US1, the sexy parts that make it into Bad Boys and Miami Vice type movies. Not the plane Jane parts like Kendall, Westchester, Homestead, Miami Gardens, etc...

Sorry to confuse I should have mentioned that I was specifically referring to the CBD market since the development of that one is the only one really that influences the making of more skyscrapers and thus... the only market I really care about for now. :)
 

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People who paid 300k for one bedrooms in Downtown or Brickell aren't the ones that are in trouble, its the ones who paid 700k for one bedrooms in places like the Vue or the Club at Brickell Bay. Yes people actually paid that much for 1 bedrooms there over the last year (almost 1000/square foot for inland, condo-coverted non-luxury buildings).
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
People who paid 300k for one bedrooms in Downtown or Brickell aren't the ones that are in trouble, its the ones who paid 700k for one bedrooms in places like the Vue or the Club at Brickell Bay. Yes people actually paid that much for 1 bedrooms there over the last year (almost 1000/square foot for inland, condo-coverted non-luxury buildings).

i agree!
 

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Canes, I usually love your posts, but this one is a bit of an exception! You definitely have a sharp mind and some great ideas, but this last post is filled with a lot of opinion. Of course everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not entitled to their own facts.
The problem is, most of the available housing stock currently on the market in Miami is unappealing to buyers because it's mostly small, expensive, blinged-out one bedroom condos nobody sane will to buy at the current prices
That is not true. The overwhelming majority of housing stock is NOT one bedroom apartments. Further, one bedroom apts have a very broad appeal in urban envronments.
 

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That's just it... downtown Miami isn't in the middle of everything, except in everyone's dreams and fantasies.

The only thing downtown (particularly CBD) living has going for it right now, today is the shorter commute to work.
Yahtzeee!!!!!
You got it. Most people work 5 days a week (or more) and go do "meaningful shopping" less often. Smart people locate close to the thing that they do the most and drive to the thing that they do the least. Doesn't that make sense? For those people whose time if valuable, shortening overall drive time adds to quality of life and earning potential.
There are a lot of people with big brains, big work ethic, and big wallets that would rather take a Metromover for 10 minutes than to drive 45 minutes one way.
What kind of fool chooses his living place because of it's proximity to McDonald's??
Concrete example: A friend of mine works for a big law firm, she transfered from Tampa and now works in the Bank of America building. When she was driving around with her Realtor, she saw everything all over town. She chose Brickell on the River because of the Metromover and the 4 block walk to Mary Brickell Village. If she wanted to, she could walk to the McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's or any of the SW 8th Street fast food places, but there aren't a hell of a lot of successful attorney's eating fast food on a regular basis. Especially if you live in an area dense enough to support food delivery (like I just ordered!!).
I have another friend that lives in One Miami. He is in the financial services business and the majority of his high networth customers work in the CBD. He takes the metromover, cabs, and eats at some of the best restaurants all around the CBD. He doesn't drive to South Beach...he takes a cab.
Somebody who lives in the CBD today has to drive farther to meaningfully go shopping than someone who lives in the most remote cul-de-sac of the Hammocks.
Sorry that I don't know where the Hammocks are, but the CBD is only 5 minutes from Lincoln Road or the Collins Ave shopping district..that is some pretty meaningful shopping, no?
I have several friends who bought $280k+ 1-bedroom condos in Brickell as investments. Every single one of them regrets it, and wishes they'd either spent the same amount buying half as many 2 or 3 bedroom units (which ARE still selling reasonably well).
Sorry about your friends, but one bedrooms and studios sell pretty well too.

Here are some facts:
The last 30 closed sales in the following buidings:

Brickell on the River: 13 One bedrooms, 14 Two Bedrooms, 2 Three Bedrooms

One Miami East: 2 Studios, 11 One Bedrooms, 12 Two Bedrooms, 8 Three bds.

One Miami West: 4 Studios, 7 One bedrooms, 14 Two Bedrooms, 5 Three bds.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Roark, thats what I said. I live in Manhattan, same is here. People will pay top $ just to live in Manhattan. Could they live in Bronx and Brooklyn? Yeah, but nobody wants to commute 50 min in stinky subway or to sit in traffic for 2 hrs every day. Same is in Miami.
 

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who wants to live in south beach in the middle of all tourists. you get crazy there.
Miami Beach doesn't stop at 21st street you know. There's more to it than south beach. Mid Beach and North Beach is mainly residential with some big hotels here and there like Fountainbleu and Eden Roc but mostly expensive single family homes that start around $700,000 and go up into the millions and the condo canyons.
 
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