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tampa orlando will become a huge metro mega region with a population of 11 million by 2050 if current growth continues
 

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Margela Schurkel
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How would you define a megacity? I would say appropriate standards for the current year would be 10 million in the city proper/downtown area and at least 20 million in the metropolitan area. The only two cities in the developed world that truly fit the definition of a megacity are New York City and Tokyo.
Neither one of them has over 10 million ppl. The only city to fit in the developed world would be Seoul.
 

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No More Italian Mod
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Toronto will definately be a megacity by 2050. Its metro is already 6 + million and is increasing very rapidly
Milano metro is 7.5 mio and increases in population

I can't make projections till 2050 but could be possible the same area could have 10 + mio

Today Lombardy region (the region of Milan) still got 10 mio hinabitants...
 

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I reckon that in the UK none lol, well the closest is obviously Birmingham and by 2050 it may have a population of about 4 million, thats my estimate. I dont think any other cities in the UK will even come close to that as Birmingham is the only city in the UK apart from London which has a population of just over 1 million.
 

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I would say that London is about to become a Megacity. We have alot of skyscrapers being built, which is going to encourage more workers and increase the cities population.
 

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Do you define megacity only by population numbers? What about infrastructure, transportation etc. Don't you think that to deserve to be called a megacity, a settlement must be not only suffciently large but also developed enough. Is a 15 million slum with most of polulation living without running water or access to urban transit more "mega" then 8 million area with large metrosystem, superstructures, skyscrapers etc?
 

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Margela Schurkel
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Milano metro is 7.5 mio and increases in population

I can't make projections till 2050 but could be possible the same area could have 10 + mio

Today Lombardy region (the region of Milan) still got 10 mio hinabitants...
This is very uncertain. The fertility rate is at around 1,41 in Lombardia. That means, if there would be no migration, the population would half around every 60 years. And I don't think that the immigration to Italy will continue at that rate for 43 years.
 

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Do you define megacity only by population numbers? What about infrastructure, transportation etc. Don't you think that to deserve to be called a megacity, a settlement must be not only suffciently large but also developed enough. Is a 15 million slum with most of polulation living without running water or access to urban transit more "mega" then 8 million area with large metrosystem, superstructures, skyscrapers etc?
Well the title of the thread is megacities in the developed world so we don't need to worry about massive slums. But you do bring up a good point though. Infrastructure is a big issue, which is also why I don't see any "New World" cities becoming megacities because their transportation infrastructure is too energy inefficient so sustain tens of millions of people.

Also, can someone define what a megacity will be in 2050? Because the idea of megacities change obviously. 100 years ago, its was a city over ~5,000,000 and 200 years ago it was a city over 1,000,000. 2,000 years ago, it was a city over 100,000. Rome was the Tokyo of the ancient world. What would the definition of a megacity be in 2050?
 

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This is very uncertain. The fertility rate is at around 1,41 in Lombardia. That means, if there would be no migration, the population would half around every 60 years. And I don't think that the immigration to Italy will continue at that rate for 43 years.
Totally agree, But im not too sure that Milano's metro is 7.5 million, thats quite out there..I mean what kind of measurments do they use in Italy. I've been to Milano many times and have family that lives there, and to me and them (who have been to Toronto) say that Toronto is bigger on a land scale.
7.5 million must encompass a HUGE area that is redundant to the actual city of Milano.
 

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Totally agree, But im not too sure that Milano's metro is 7.5 million, thats quite out there..I mean what kind of measurments do they use
Not so difficult in that case: in a ray of about 60 km from Milan city center live about 7.5 mio people

About population... Lombardy increased of 1 mio hinabitants thanks immigration in few years

Maybe immigration continues with this rate till 2050, maybe not... difficult to say
Surely we cannot say birth rate will be low 'forever', 'cause just 30 years ago ther was already the baby boom wave... and in 30 years by now?

Anyway even birth rate increased in these years (even thanks immigration who have an high birth rate) and probably will increase again in the next future
 

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HK, and Chicago are most probable answers. Shanghai and Moscow may be considered developed by 2050, although i don't claim that whole Russia or China will be devepoled by then.

Anyway, by 2050, having a megacity in one's country may be nothing to be proud of. Just look: in 1900 all the largest cities: London, New York, Chicago, Paris, Berlin or Vienna were also world's primary economical centres, and among world richest regions. By now, already most of 10+ million agglomerations are located in developing world, and on economy map often remain behind smaller 1st world financial centers as Frankfurt or Geneve. By 2050, megacity may be identified universally with poverty, congestion and pollution, while population of developed nations will live in more comfortable medium-sized towns and suburbs.
 

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tampa orlando will become a huge metro mega region with a population of 11 million by 2050 if current growth continues
I agree, maybe not by 2050, but the growth in this area is substantial. Like most sunbelt cities, growth has been steady, with the continuous Tampa area DMA the largest in the state of Florida, including areas as south a Sarasota and north to Pasco and Hernando. The area forms an "H" shape from Tampa and the west coast through the Orlando area and on the east coast including Daytona down to Melbourne. The "Orlampa" region is predicted to be the next Megaregion, with a population increase of 350,000 in just the rural areas seperating the two large cities within the next 20 years.
 

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probably not a mega city, but the celtic tiger is well on its way to becoming the next big european economic center.
 

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Not so difficult in that case: in a ray of about 60 km from Milan city center live about 7.5 mio people
Well, in that case, Toronto is a little smaller or a little larger than Milan depending on the catchment area considered.

Toronto is the epicentre of what Ontarians call the Golden Horseshore. Within the inner ring lie 6,488,062 people. Within the outer ring lie 8,102,163 people. At about 120 km, the outer ring is a more extravagant catchment than the metro Milan figure of 60 km.

It seems accurate to give Milan the edge here, but that order will probably be reversed within a decade. Toronto attracts more immigrants each year than any city in the western world. It's topped 100,000 newcomers for many many years. This figure doesn't even include migration to Toronto from other parts of Canada.

It's not difficult to see Toronto breaching the 10 million mark. The rapid growth has been continuous for decades and shows no signs of letting up. It will be interesting to see if cities like Madrid will get there. Spain seems to be growing much quicker than the rest of Europe.
 

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Well, in that case, Toronto is a little smaller or a little larger than Milan depending on the catchment area considered.

Toronto is the epicentre of what Ontarians call the Golden Horseshore. Within the inner ring lie 6,488,062 people. Within the outer ring lie 8,102,163 people. At about 120 km, the outer ring is a more extravagant catchment than the metro Milan figure of 60 km.
A radium of 120 km has no sense for Europe... I know Australian and American MAs have often these very big size; but it depends the bigness of the territory itself annd its extensive use

Normally in Europe 120km split different territories, with differnt history, tradition and so on
Anyway on a radium of 120 km from Milan city centre live I think about 15/16 mio people (in 120 km you have all Lombardy region -it has 10 mio alone- a huge part of Switzerland, a very huge part of Piedmont end Emilia Regions, and even a part of Veneto region)
But this is absolutely not Milan metro in any way... in 120 km you almost reach the city of Turin, for example, that simply can't be considered part of Milan metro

It seems accurate to give Milan the edge here, but that order will probably be reversed within a decade.
I said it is possible within 2050 that area of 7.5 mio will have 10 mio... but I underlined to forecast by now what will happen in next 40 years is not so reasonable
With today growth it can reach 10 mio; but in 40 years growth can stop, or decrease, or increase more and more... who can say it with any doubt

It will be interesting to see if cities like Madrid will get there. Spain seems to be growing much quicker than the rest of Europe.
Probably you don't know in last years Italy grew as much as Spain in population
 

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re.

London is an megacity yet , it has 12 million people in agglomeration , future megacities must be Washington DC , Dallas , Miami, Chicago , Toronto madrid , belo horizonte ...
 

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Gauteng (Johannesburg + Pretoria) in South Africa. We have 9.5 million people already.
 
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